- NEW VIDEO AS OF MAY 1ST — UPDATE ON RUBLE SITUATION,
- Ukraine looks to open a second front,
- The thin red line between Ukr and Russ,
- The Empire goes all-in,
- The ruble runs victory laps,
- A case study in fantasy,
- Send more javelins!
New video as of May 1st
(Sorry, in the below video I mistakenly refer to this past Friday as the 25th, not the 29th. MORE VIDEOS TO BE POSTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.)
Ukraine looks to open a second front
The Ukraine’s de facto propaganda minister, Oleksiy Arestovich, has threatened an invasion of Transnistria, the Russian-protected, Slavic-majority, longtime (since 1991) “breakaway” part of Moldova.
In line with that, some goons—possibly the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s psychological operations branch—have been spreading “We will liberate Transnitria” digital propaganda posters in Ukrainian and Romanian.
Over this past week, “unknown” attackers launched three bazooka rounds at Transnistria’s State Security Ministry in Tiraspol; two Transnistrian towers for the rebroadcast of Russian radio were blown up by saboteurs; Ukrainian drones violated Transnistrian airspace; and, shots were fired across the border from the Ukraine in the vicinity of a major Transnistrian munitions depot (more on this location, below.)
Russia has between 1000 and 1500 soldiers in Transnistria. Together with local Transnistrian forces (5000 regulars and many times that in reserves, in addition to police who likely have access to some heavier weapons), they should be able to hold off a total conquest by third-rate Ukrainian forces in the region.
And, it is unlikely that Moldova would get involved from the other direction. Since late last year, Moldova has tried to convince Gazprom to accept the “check is in the mail” treatment, and is always on the verge of having its gas cut off. Moldova has not joined European sanctions against Russia.
If the Ukraine invades, it would attack border posts and infrastructure targets with artillery and drones, and possibly try to bisect Transnistria at one of its narrower points.
It would also likely seek to capture or destroy a massive local stockpile of munitions, roughly 20,000 tons worth, that was left over from the Red Army’s evacuation of the former Warsaw Pact countries.
This store is essentially right on the border with the Ukraine, but then, most of Transnistria is no more than 10 km wide.
Aside from potentially capturing the ammo dump, the goal is obviously to distract Russia, to ease pressure on desperate Ukrainian forces in southern and eastern Ukraine.
It is also a public relations stunt.
If things get really hot in Transnistria, which “under international law” is still a part of Moldova…..
…..It is guaranteed that our MSM, the American Brezhnev (Brandon) people, Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, etc., will scream that Russia has invaded Moldova, Russia needs to get out of Moldova, Russia is distracting from its failures, etc.
They won’t say “the Ukraine invaded Transnistria to distract from its other problems.”
At least, Dreizin Report readers will know what’s going on.
Scratch a Ukrainian, and you’ll find a…
In the below video, the acting commander of what little is left of the Ukraine’s 36th Separate Marine Infantry Brigade, hanging out at the Mariupol steel plant with the Azov, asks for help in evacuating his people out of there.
You see, he doesn’t want to surrender. Surrendering is for people who have lost the ability to post dumb videos on the Internet.
No, he wants someone from Kiev to come down and drive him out of there on a chauffeured limo, or at least, a charter bus with recliner seats and TV.
And, as he drives past the Russians, he will roll down the window and give them the finger! What a plan!
(I’m slightly embellishing, but you get the point.)
But, that’s not the funniest thing.
The funniest thing is, this dummy is speaking in perfect, unaccented Russian.
He is addressing his own Ukrainian government in Russian.
Why? Well, you know, this is just me, but I would say, if you are addressing your own Ukrainian government, in Russian, to come save your butt, then perhaps you are Russian, no?
No, because his paycheck and his entire career, and his survivors’ benefits if he is killed (and there are countless thousands like him, although some are dead already), depends on him being “Ukrainian.”
This “we’re no longer Russian” has been going on for 30 years of independence, but of course, was radically accelerated from 2014, when the Ukraine became a rent-a-country with one main customer (the USA), and one mission in life (to fight Russia.)
Well, you know what they say… “Make stupid choices, win stupid prizes.”
The Empire goes all-in
Brandon is now talking about asking Congress for $33 billion for the Ukraine.
I don’t know if this is in addition to the $13.6 billion that Congress has already approved, or on top of that.
If doesn’t matter, because ultimately, it will be a lot more than $33 billion. (And, anyway, it’s all “Monopoly money.”)
These are Afghanistan-level numbers.
Readers of my newsletter (from before I set up this site in late March, although I’ve added some old “issues” as archives) will recall, I said the Ukraine would be another Afghanistan, not least in terms of feeding the arms manufacturers and the “do-gooder” industry.
I said that in January, or perhaps December.
It will certainly end roughly the same as Afghanistan. But until then, “they” can’t let it go, because having lost Afghanistan, if they lose the Ukraine, it will be THE END.
We know it. They know it.
Incidentally, remember all those “principled” bozos complaining that Israel gets $3 billion/year? Not necessarily defending Israel, but doggone, since 2001, that doesn’t sound like much money.
The ruble runs victory laps
At 12:10pm U.S. Eastern Time, April 28th, 2022, the USDRUB currency pair reached a low of 71.0000 on Yahoo Finance.
It was at about 80 at the time of “the invasion.”
In other words, the ruble strengthened over 10 percent against the dollar, since the invasion.
(It has strengthened even more against the Euro, considering the Euro has fallen sharply against the dollar this past week.)
After Europe “froze” (stole) $300 billion of Russian central bank-held Eurobonds, all the “smart people” figured it was lights out for Russia.
LOL.
Clearly, Russia has “the world’s best central bankers.” Also, Putin’s gas-for-rubles scheme worked.
All the “smart people” said Putin is nuts, it won’t fly. Europe buckled.
Among other pluses, the favorable exchange rate is a MASSIVE inflation damper, for the benefit of Russian consumers.
This wasn’t supposed to happen. All the State Department and Congress-geniuses were drooling about “crippling” sanctions that would “cripple”, “hobble”, and “destroy” Russia’s economy.
I wrote in January and perhaps even December, THEY PICKED THE WRONG DECADE. You can’t destroy Russia when the commodities cycle is picking up sharply in favor of commodities exporters.
The USSR was always going to come apart at some point, but it fell in 1991—not 1981—for a reason. Look at the oil price history chart. It wasn’t just “Reagan’s arms race” that did it.
I also wrote in January that those who preach, “Carthage must be destroyed”, better make sure they don’t live in Carthage.
All I can say, again, is LOL. I called all of this.
Speaking of ancient Rome, the guys behind American Brezhnev (Brandon) are now planning to seize “Russian oligarch” (basically any rich Russian expat) homes and yachts, and auction them off and give the money to the Ukraine.
Surely, GOP senators are next. Seize their estates in Campania! Exile their children to Macedonia!
A case study in fantasy
I caught this “news” on ZeroHedge, which has been so pressured and neutered by its IT services providers and advertisers…..
…..that it has become another Bloomberg, carrying only “Ukraine says” MSM pap about the war, and avoiding criticism of the vakk-seenz with a ten-foot pole.
This past Wednesday, ZeroHedge carried a story from NBC News, which claimed that, according to unnamed current and former government officials, the U.S. provided “intelligence” that the Ukraine used to shoot down a Russian IL-76 transport plane, loaded with Russian soldiers, coming in for a landing at (presumably, they don’t give the name) Gostomel airfield near Kiev in late February.
I must highlight this, as it’s an echo of fake claims that were passed around at the time, originating with Ukrainian Telegram and Twitter.
Ultimately, NBC’s “current and former government officials” are passing along two-month-old smoke from social media.
To give you an idea, the IL-76 is substantially larger, twice as heavy, and much more solidly built than a Boeing 737. If an IL-76 was shot down and crashed from a low altitude, there would be LARGE pieces of wreckage on the ground, not to mention, several platoons worth of mostly intact, uniformed bodies strewn about—it would be unmistakable.
Where is the evidence?
IT WAS NEVER SHOWN, BECAUSE IT WASN’T THERE.
At least they could show the bodies, you know, like the Russian side shows Ukrainian bodies, because there are some in this world who value evidence…..
…..and here, here, here, here, here, and here are just a few recent “receipts”, hardly a drop in the bucket of the sum total of decommissioned Ukrai-meat, but just to give a taste:
At this point, anyone who believes ANYTHING carried in the MSM regarding the Ukraine, is a chump.
We need more javelins!
Only the larger, “tube” weapons (not the plastic-wrapped ones) in this video are of NATO country manufacture. Nonetheless, it’s a lot of antitank weapons and a lot of other junk.
American Brezhnev (Brandon), we need more Javelins! Please send more Javelins. That’ll do it!
.
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The entire casino creditism universe of Western Europe, US and Japan are desperate to gaslight its populations with their subversive dealings in regime change activities. What a shammer! Thanks for your reports – well done pf
Excellent article.
Russian question: I would have thought the Russians had remote controlled мышки, белочки, или зайчики to send down into the Azovstal catacombs.
Be a lot cooler if they did.
Ukrainian question: I would have thought that there are extensive tunnels that run kilometers to airfields or undersea submarine docks, a la Spectre, that the Ukrainian forces and their foreign allies would have used to escape already.
Be a lot cooler if they did.
Pepe Escobar talking with Richard Medhurst the other day said there is leaked info about some of the ~400 westerners in Azovstal with Azov trainees, many of them elite (Canadian General, French elite trainers), and that Russia really wants these people alive, for a trial in June, to get them to “spill the beans”. I’d say if that’s true, it could even be another or the real reason why Putin launched the operation.
Sad observations regarding Zero Hedge decline.
I force myself to view the horrific waste of life shown to fully grasp the extent of the monstrous evil of those minions of Hell who promote this war. I care not for the death of the nazionalists but they are in the minority. Ukraine will be a vast wasteland and its remaining population deprived of its boys who died on a fool’s errand. This is a moral stain on the leaders of the US, UK, NATO, Ukraine and compliant EU members and those who exhorted fighting to the death of the last Ukrainian. Like Lady Macbeth, the damned spot will never come out. i can only pray hard that humanity now sees clearly this evil and revolts by whatever means necessary to purge this evil from our respective governments.
A heartfelt and very well written statement, thank you Babbs.
The people responsible for this will eventually be dealt with.
Everything you see is necessary.
Do you reckon these potential 2nd and 3rd fronts will happen ? Or is it just a distraction or political stunt ? If they do, do you think this is when the escalation to a hot war with NATO begins ? cheers
“As Ukraine crumbles, Second and Third fronts in Europe crack open” – A discussion of the topic you were wondering about on The Duran
“it will certainly end roughly the same as Afghanistan. But until then, “they” can’t let it go, because having lost Afghanistan, if they lose the Ukraine, it will be THE END.”
Yes, presuming US/NATO doesn’t intervene directly. Are they desperate enough to try it?
My gut agrees with https://www.danijel.org/blog/ who says desperation and arrogance will prod them in.
At this point it seems psychology has more weight than objectivity or rationality. American exceptionalism is an ex post facto rationalization for piracy. But now exceptionalism has brainwashed the US decision-makers into believing they can’t lose.God is on their side! They are dreaming how their heroic exploits will be eulogized by future generations. The principled have been systematically weeded out so there is no restraint.
I just can’t visualize how the US will retire from the field and collapse.
Re that acting commanders video, I’m very happy to see that Nazi POS’s drooping miserable face whilst freezing his arse off. I’m really hoping one, two or even a few of these scum go completely postal on each other from their despair.
I was wondering if dropping Napalm on that Azovstal steel plant would clean out the bunkers quickly? Maybe give them an ultimatum,. Surrender or we’ll drop napalm on you in 24 hrs?
Is napalm a way to clear out bunkers?
Not napalm but fuel bombs.
How do those in the Avostal underground complex have such good internet connection? They are supposedly. deep underground.
Very good question. There is a great deal of stuff that we see and hear with no common sense applied to it. It has come to the point that everyone appears to be a liar. Was it Chesterton who said “we don’t trust politicians because they are not trustworthy”?
Starlink maybe?
Thank you for your texts. In this desert of misinformation and censorship, you are a bright spot.
Excellent analysis and I appreciate the interspersed dark humour as well. Do you think the likelihood of a battlefield nuclear exchange is greater than 50% if Poland invades west Ukraine? It seems the Poles are dying for a fight with Russia. And if the Poles were dumb enough to do it would the USA ever risk a direct confrontation in Europe or Asia with Russia?
He thinks like a Russian (sorry!) and writes like a god.
The West has lost its praegnante language in the new Tower of Babel of CP, genderism and forbidden words….
Thinking is language – and vice versa.
Far be it from me to defend those holed up in the Azovstal, BUT…to be fair, it appears to me that the Acting Commander of the 36th Separate Marine Infantry Brigade doesn’t surrender because he CAN’T: His commanders in Kiev have forbidden him to surrender, because THEIR commanders in Washington have forbidden him to surrender, and his Azov colleagues will shoot him and his men if he tries to defy that order. He is worth more to Kiev and Washington dead than alive. So what would you have him do? ALSO…I don’t know where this video was posted, but is it possible that he is speaking Russian, because in fact he is not primarily addressing himself to his commanders in Kiev, whom he very well understands want him dead, but rather to anybody else?
Hello! He’s addressing his political leadership, asking for an “extraction.” I’ve made that clear. Like about 80 percent of the Ukrainian army, his main language is Russian. As for the Azov, yes they would likely shoot anyone who tries to surrender. But the Azov can’t be everywhere. Whoever wants to live, needs to make a dash for it. As for “permission” to surrender, no one ever has permission to surrender. You just do it.
It seems to me he’s hinting that he’ll talk to the Russians (in Russian, no less) if he doesn’t get his way. But I also believe they have no idea that Ukraine cannot rescue them even if they wanted to. Nobody can.. The only groups who want them alive is the Red Cross and the Russians. The Russians want them on trial and singing like birds for the world to see. I’m sure they have tails to tell too.
So many people can’t grasp that most Ukrainians talk Russian routinely, only switching to Ukrainian when they have no choice.
I think that russia’s GDP can go down (depression) while at the same time the ruble being strong.
The central bank of russian says that expects a 9.2% or 8% GDP reduction for 2022. In 2023 or 2024 expects no depression or a slight GDP increase.
Source:
https://cbr.ru/statistics/ddkp/mo_br/
That is not the central bank’s opinion. That is a business survey carried out by the central bank, at some point in April, perhaps before the ruble fully recovered and then some.
“No, that is not the central bank’s opinion.”
You are right, that is the result of a survey made by the central bank of russia.
I said that it’s their opinion because the deputy chairman of the bank of russia Alexei Zabotkin,
agreed with the results of this survey, and it’s published on their website so they may think
that it’s accurate enough.
The survey dates were from march 2022 to April 13-19 2022.
In march 2022 when the ruble was at it’s lowest point the survey reports an expected -8% GDP for 2022,
and in an updated version from 13-19 april (same link) they expected an even worse GPD, -9.2% GDP for 2022,
by 13-19 april the ruble already recovered.
And it’s perfectly fine, you cannot expect sanctions to not have any impact on their economy, and a recession and
very high inflation for at least a year is what they expect (Alexei Zabotkin dixit), even if rub goes up. They think that it will only last 1 year, though.
In any case… you can have a currency getting stronger and a recession at the same time, it depends on what other currencies are doing, since it’s a relative messure RUB vs DOLLAR, RUB vs EUR, central banks can devalue their currency at will, imports vs exports etc… too many factors.
Currency exchange rates and GDP are usually correlated but that doesn’t mean that for some period of time they cannot go in different directions.
Yes, that survey is weeks old, from before the ruble recovered and then some. And yes, you can hypothetically have a strengthening currency AND a recession, if you are, for example, the USA, because in “risk on” times, everyone runs back to U.S. Treasury bonds. (Of course, during a global recession, it is impossible for EVERYONE’S currency to weaken at the same time.) In Russia’s case, today, the government is so awash in export revenue, they will avert a hard recession if only through government spending, if nothing else. I am not saying the economy will not contract. But minus ten percent, today, now, on the current trajectory (barring a direct war with the U.S. bloc) is not going to happen.
I think Russians will boost their GDP with construction spending – rebuilding infrastructure and that include territories too. I think they said that 95% of materials used in construction are domestic to them.
Yes, good point. It will take some time but, if they can finish taking the Donbass by end of this month, they should be able to start rebuilding it by autumn. Already, they have started working on Mariupol. It’s not going to be transformed this year, of course, but, they can certainly begin to get the materials ready.
Follow up, some up to date macroeconomic forecast from the Bank of Russia
“Large-scale transformation of the Russian economy Monetary Policy Report No. 2 (38) – 11 may 2022”
https://cbr.ru/eng/about_br/publ/ddkp/longread_2_38/
I am having a hard time trying to get my boyfriend to realize how brainwashed he has become towards Russia. He doesn’t believe anything politicians say but he believes all the bs propaganda?? I use your reports to try and wake him up. I have never understood why there is so much hatred for Russia.
It’s typical. He stopped believing the fake news EXCEPT the Russia part, yes? Somehow, Russia/Ukraine is the one area where they still have credibility, isn’t that strange? There is some name for this mental distortion, I forgot what it’s called. I think it was first laid out in a novel by Michael Critchon, if I’m not mistaken.
Perhaps someone reading this comment will remember the name of it.
cognitive dissonance ?
Thanks but no, something else.
Gell-Mann amnesia effect ?
Bingo!!! Thanks!!
It’s basically human psychology and manipulation. You have to convince people they are at risk from an evil enemy and they will do anything to support you if they believe that. Russia is the evil enemy. Yes of course it’s a ridiculous lie but most people aren’t too bright and are lazy so they just accept the BS.
Jacob– good report and analysis. I believe Russia will move on Lviv soon. A possible false flag from the Poles as Alex Christoforou suggested today in his report update…I hope not…’cause they’ll be let hung out to dry by Pelosi!
Lvov is going to Poland. Russia wouldn’t be in a position to capture Lvov this spring or summer, if ever, not to mention, Russia is not wanted there.
One huge hitch in this plan that westerners seem to forget or not know about, is that Łwów and the other territories that Poland gave up after WWII, were COMPENSATED with fucking industrialized German cities. i.e. all Poles know they got the better end of the deal. If I were in charge of Poland, I’d be thinking twice about giving the Germans an excuse to try to get these cities back. This issue doesn’t get the consideration it deserves, IMO.
GREAT choice in intro music.
on point analysis, thank you sir
I recently saw an interesting quote on Telegram…”Russian soldiers like to burn tanks with crosses on them”…like the insignia of an older enemy? ; )
There are retail investors in Hong Kong lining up to buy Rubles…This is definitely real folks.
Thanks Jacob! Free State of Florida here also via Alexander at The Duran.
ditto!
Great piece on the Ruble. I would refine it a bit by saying that the Ruble is resource based, as well as manufacturing and (least important, but still important) gold based – not the financed based currency of the west which now manufactures little and whose resources are thinner and thinner
Excellent piece. Thanks for your courage in exposing the complicit MSM and political elites.
I have tried to share the links for your site, but the images donot appear.Have you been shadow-banned?
Probably just an issue with loading the videos on the browser, sometimes WordPress is slow. Just refresh the URL, next time.
I have the slight feeling we’re already full throttle on our way into a second cold war,
which will last at least 15 years.
The West, especially the media, seems determined.
They won’t shake hands with Putin and his government ever again.
And again, Russia won’t have the economic power against the western alliance in the long run.
Hope I’m wrong though.
From Pakistan….thank you Mr Dreizin…..your videos are awaitted and forwarded
M
Much is made off the death of Senior Russian military officers….. Just goes to show the dedications and grit of their leadership…, American officers once they become generals sit on TV rooms and talk what’s politically good for their careers
Yup. The Russian general death toll is overstated several times over, anyway, but Russian senior officers do lead from the front.
Thank you Jacob Excellent reports, highly recommended by TheDuran. So what is your opinion on Transnistria will it be invaded by Ukraine? If so what is the dateline?
Totally agree Russia is on the driver seat and Europe has not figure it out yet. they think they are still in control and all soon will be back to normal.
Again thank you!
Great stuff! Thanks – I was directed here by Mercouris.
In Western circles a lot of people believe that Russia will run out of missiles because they will run out of micro chips. I have replied that commons sense tells us this can’t be true because the Russians would not have started out without making pretty damn sure they had all their kit lined up – after all they have had eight years at least to think about it.
Can you comment on this?
Poland reports that it has sent half of its tanks to Ukraine. Slovakia has sent its entire air defense network and most of its air force. Germany has dispatched everything in storage still working. It seems to me that some countries in NATO are becoming truly enthusiastic self demilitarizers.
Hi Jacob, thanks for the great analysis! As a Chinese person fluent in both Russian and English, I want to say that your articles are the most informative and insightful of all analyses that I can find throughout three languages regarding this . Pity that it seems that I cannot see your videos on this website (words and images work well for me). Is it possible that you could post them on the Duran as well? I watched your previous videos on the Duran, and they were excellent. Eager to see more! Cheers!
Thanks for your very kind words. I want to figure out why you’re unable to see videos on my site. Are you located in China? Which browser are you using?
Thanks for the reply! Yes, I am located in China. I use Safari on my iPhone, and Chrome on the Windows PC. In Safari, the space where the video is supposedly at is simply blank, while in Chrome it is a grey box that shows nothing clickable. Most likely it has something to do with the fact that I am in China. If the video on your site here is a link to YouTube, then I certainly do not have access. But somehow I can see your past two videos re-posted by Alexander Mercouris on the Duran locals. Access to YouTube is not required there.
Hao,
We don’t host on YouTube. Never will as they censor and have no interest in playing their game. We use WordPress. China may be blocking that as well. Try this direct link to Jacob’s latest commentary. If you cannot access, China is blocking. Won’t be long before USA does same at this rate.
https://videos.files.wordpress.com/AJksHn1l/video-commentary-iib-2022.05.02.mp4
This link works fine for me on both the phone and the PC. Thanks a lot cmoguer! Problem solved. May I suggest that all videos on the site be accompanied in the future by such a direct link nearby in addition to the original video (which I can’t click). That should be quite helpful. Also, watching the video, it occured to me that the longest-range missiles at the disposal of ВСУ is the 120km Точка-У. Therefore, in the first phase, was the fast ground advance of Russian forces in the north and northeast in the vicinity Kiev, Sumy and Chernigov partly trying to push back the missile launch pads back, thereby creating a buffer between them and the Russian/Belarusian territory? I do not recall any direct attacks on to the Russian border in Feburary and March. But now that they have pulled back, the 100km buffer is gone.
Re – the Canadian General captured escaping Avozstal. He was a retired general as it was easier to retire than face the investigation into his political issues difficulties with the military.
So apparently he quit and went Soldier of Fortuning.
“It is noted that the general retired from the Canadian army on April 5, this was confirmed by the country’s Ministry of Defense. Soon he left for Ukraine as a mercenary. According to the sources of the publication, the top military leadership of Canada was informed of this decision of the officer.”
https://then24.com/2022/04/24/canadian-general-accused-of-harassment-left-for-ukraine/
Great political website. The Duran is right, even if they drive me mad by not date-stamping each episode so l don’t lose an hour or two watching ah episode it overtaken by events. I don’t speak Russian or Ukrainian, so l watch your video with dismay and confusion. Nonetheless l’m a fan and a subscriber.
Geezus these people don’t even know the Ukrainian language. The first poster has a spelling error. PS Love your videos.
Russia is severely over extended with a very thinly held line of territory. The hand which grasps the orange cannot crush it.
Trying to extend aid to Transnistria will require seizing the coast all the way to Kiev which, presently, Russia is hesitant to do, by naval landing. And cannot achieve, overland. She appears to instead be settling for denying it’s Western use by rocket and missile attacks.
Russia losing Transnistria as 1,500 more men to death or capture, would be a significant morale and propaganda loss for them, in the eyes of the world.