- Destruction of the Ukraine’s rail system continues,
- Mack the Knife won’t be happy…,
- What happened to the script?
- DREIZIN REPORT ORIGINAL VIDEO: What’s going on in the south of Ukraine?
- Human rights, or something else?
- Ruble insanity continues—USDRUB drops to near 62, RUSSIAN LIVING STANDARD ON TRACK TO RISE BECAUSE OF THE WAR—PUT A SUICIDE WATCH ON LINDSAY GRAHAM!!!
- Ukrainian manpower problems
- DEMOCRACY IN ACTION: SPAIN ARRESTS UKRAINIAN OPPOSITION ACTIVIST AT KIEV’S REQUEST
We’ll get into how the script has been flipped. First…
Destruction of the Ukraine’s rail system continues
On Tuesday, May 3rd, Russia’s rocket forces decommissioned another six traction substations (transformers that feed power to third rails on the Ukraine’s rail system) in western Ukraine, at least three of them in or near Lvov.
Here is one of them:
Here is another. In this one, the electrical gear is still “standing”, but it has been completely burned out, which you can see better with a bigger view, if you click here.
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I don’t know, the above locations may be repairable. Some of the up to 20 substations attacked so far, have received new transformers from Ukrainian Railways’ reserve stash, and been brought back into service.
However, the transformers are reportedly an unusual (Soviet) type of 25kv unit that is no longer manufactured. At some point—and this point may have been reached already, we don’t know—there will be no more available. And as we can see, the “bombs are still falling”, and Russia’s target list is only getting longer.
Almost all “large” items (cannon, tanks, etc.) that the U.S. hegemonic bloc hopes to bring into the Ukraine, must go by rail or else by individual tractor-trailer (the latter option being very slow, and the U.S. bloc would have to cough up the trailers.)
Every time Russia attacks the substations, it completely gums up the entire rail system region-wide, throughout western Ukraine—everything stops.
At some point soon, everything will stop permanently, which also means, no passenger traffic and no imports/exports beyond what can be moved by road.
(Ukrainian Railways has relatively few working diesel machines in its locomotive fleet; most of the Ukraine’s rail transport relies on electric locomotives. Hypothetically, the U.S. bloc could “lend” the Ukraine some diesels, but the problem is, the Ukraine is on Soviet rail track gauge—European locomotives won’t be of any use.)
Not to mention, one of the rail-and-road bridges across the Dniepr (which conceptually separates eastern and western Ukraine, and over which pass fuel and munitions to Ukrainian forces facing off against Russia) had one of its supports damaged by a cruise missile this past Wednesday.
It appears the road (upper) section is now back in service, but I’m not sure if they’ve yet taken the risk of putting the weight of a loaded train on the railroad span.
Russia will probably assess the damage, then launch one or two more cruise missiles to finish off the bridge, as they did with a bridge southwest of Odessa some days ago.
The Odessa bridge was one of only two remaining crude oil arteries into the Ukraine.
Oil is offloaded from ships at the Moldovan terminal near Giurgiulesti near the mouth of the Danube, transferred to railcars (Moldova has Soviet-gauge track) and sent into southwest Ukraine.
With one of the two bridges used by these trains having been fully decommissioned by Russia, the other bridge is just a matter of time.
When that happens, there will be no further “easy” oil for the Ukraine.
Bringing in tanker railcars from Poland is an option, but, the oil would have to be transferred to Soviet-gauge cars at or near the border, which would take quite a bit of time and potentially (if done on the Ukrainian side, I’m not sure) open the stagnant echelon to an easy missile attack.
As of now, refined petroleum prices in the Ukraine are spiking, there are lines at gas stations, and many stations are limiting purchases to 10 liters (about two and a half gallons.)
The Ukraine is simply running out of juice for civilian use. Soon enough, it will run out of diesel for its military as well.
The above video is from a gas station in Odessa. However, what’s on the price sign in this roughly week-old video, is outdated.
Here is roughly the new market price in or near Odessa, over two dollars per liter (quarter gallon):
Here is the new price for *premium* in Dnepropetrovsk province far to the northeast, which, unlike Odessa, does not have its own refinery. Over three dollars per liter:
Note, the Slavic letters ДП stand for “diesel fuel” in Ukrainian. In both the above photos, there is no diesel fuel available (what little there is, for as long as there is, is going to the army.)
I called this in mid-late March, but I was very wrong about the timeline—I thought it would happen sooner. Nonetheless, it will happen. The Ukraine will run dry.
Regarding the Dniepr bridge I mentioned, this is the FIRST bridge over the Dniepr to be targeted. It likely won’t be the last.
I said a few weeks ago that this would happen. I did not expect infrastructure in far western Ukraine to be targeted before the Dniepr bridges, but hey, what’s a slight sequential disorder among friends?
As I have said many times since February: If the U.S. bloc does not cut a deal—and keeps escalating and sending in more and more junk—the Ukraine will be totally destroyed.
(In this event, the Ukraine would become The Rump State of Western Ukraine, a European Afghanistan, and with several large and severely undermaintained nuclear power plants, to boot.)
Sadly, the U.S. bloc picked the “totally destroyed” option.
You must understand, the destruction of the infrastructure and economy of a large, fairly modern country, cannot be done overnight.
Even tiny Serbia was bombed for 78 days (!!!)—by a more powerful air force than Russia’s—before it caved in 1999.
(For an endless stream of ridicule of morons who think Russia has failed because it couldn’t defeat the Ukraine in a week, see Larry Johnson’s blog at sonar21.com.)
But the destruction is happening, and it will happen.
As Tucker Carlson said on his show a few days ago, it’s not about the Ukraine.
It’s about preserving the U.S. hegemonic bloc, U.S. “credibility.” The Ukraine is the tool of the moment.
It will be discarded like a used birth control device.
Like Afghanistan, like the Kurds.
Did anyone notice, “they” stopped talking about defending one-party dictatorship Democracy in the Ukraine? We’ve not heard that fairy tale since March.
Everyone knows the score. Even the stupid aren’t THAT stupid.
Mack the Knife won’t be happy…
Many of the smaller Wunderwaffen (wonder weapons) that the U.S. bloc had hoped to bring to the frontlines—e.g., “Switchblade” suicide drones a.k.a. loitering munitions, which were supposed to have been fielded by the Ukraine weeks ago—have had no impact…..
…..probably because most of them have been destroyed by Russia before getting to the front lines.
Below is footage of cruise missile strikes in Lvov, from this past Tuesday. (Or, it may be different vantage points of the same event, I’m not sure.)
Based on the “secondary” explosion(s), you know some kind of munitions were hit—most likely, something from the NATO countries, as the Lvov area is a major “rest stop” in this “ratline.”
I don’t know what exactly was destroyed here, but the point is, this is how Russia has dealt with the Switchblades.
So far, I have read of only TWO Switchblades being directed against Russian forces, that was some weeks ago, and both were unsuccessful. Nothing since. No video to speak of.
Another Wunderwaffe false hope?
That’s OK… Send more Javelins! That’ll do it!
(P.S. Only thugs use switchblades.)
(P.P.S. Yes, yes, I know Mack the Knife uses a jackknife, not a switchblade.)
What happened to the script?
Everyone in the USA, and in Russia (going back years, as a full-scale war with the Ukraine was not wholly unexpected), assumed it would be a slow suffocation, that Russia would have limited time to win the war until it risked being brought down economically, followed by a Regime Change.
That’s how things seemed as recently as late March 2022. It was the conventional thinking.
Now, the script has been flipped.
European public support for The Ukraine Narrative is sinking fast.
German public support vs. opposition for arming the Ukraine, has gone from 60-36 (if I recall) to almost half-half, in just a month or so. Herr Kanzler is heckled and booed at every public appearance. The “real” inflation shock has not even started.
Having refused to pay for its gas in rubles (in other words, having refused to pay for its gas), Poland is now stealing pipeline gas meant for France and Italy.
After briefly crashing, Russia’s ruble has gained close to 20 percent against the dollar, SINCE JUST BEFORE THE INVASION.
Not only that, but Russia’s oil and gas export revenues have roughly DOUBLED (on a monthly basis) in the last two months.
On the military side, Russia is not running low on weapons.
No one expected Russia to have thousands of cruise missiles, but it did, and now we find out, it has the parts on hand to keep building more on two or three shifts per day, at least partly making up for what’s being used.
In fact, the Dreizin Report has obtained surveillance camera footage from one of Russia’s cruise missile factories, where they are cranking these things out 24/7, like Khrushchev’s sausages:
(I’m sorry for the black-and-white footage. As you may know, surveillance cameras are often limited in their color range.)
In short, what’s happened is, Russia has the time, and it’s Russia that is waiting out the U.S. bloc, not vice versa.
What’s going on in the south of Ukraine?
Part 3 of the Dreizin Report’s recent videoblog offensive
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Human rights, or something else?
In March, shortly before starting this site, I wrote to my mailing list, ridiculing Newsmax’s Greg Kelly for shedding crocodile tears over dead civilians in Mariupol.
I said he and his kind won’t give a damn about people in Mariupol after Russia takes the place, partly because these fools are just spewing, filling airtime by chasing headlines with no shelf-life…..
…..and partly because, once Russia takes over, those civilians—like the Mariupol folk in the below video, who are giddy to mingle with Donetsk infantry scouts, in fact the dog lady tells her dog to tell the soldiers “we waited for you, you came”—become Russian, and then they’re the Enemy, and we don’t like them anymore.
Well, who could have imagined…
In recent weeks, the Ukraine has taken off the gloves, and has stepped up its MLRS (rocket artillery) and Tochka-U ballistic missile attacks on towns and cities under Russian or Donetsk control.
It’s not just Donetsk getting pummeled any more.
For example, Izium—since early April, the hub of Russian operations in eastern Kharkov province—has lately been wasted with Grad rockets (many bearing cluster submunitions) on a daily basis, as well as the occasional Tochka.
I’m sure the Ukrainians think they are aiming at some military target, but as with all Grad fire into urban areas, they almost never hit anything “worthwhile.”
The below photos of Grad damage and victims were taken in Izium a few days ago. Similar photos have been circulated of victims in Ukrainian-held areas. But when it comes to the Ukraine shelling Russian-held areas, the Ukrainian army gets a pass—like, it’s not even happening.
The below video shows the beginnings of a mass grave in Rubezhnoe, which has largely been taken by Russian and Lugansk forces.
Because the Dreizin Report is a “No Propaganda Zone”, I have no idea who killed these people. It could have been shelling from both sides—as in Mariupol, where Greg Kelly cried over a similar scene, begging Uncle Sam to ‘do something.’
Nonetheless, now, Lugansk forces and/or new authorities loyal to the Lugansk Peoples’ Republic are burying them.
So… Where is Greg Kelly? Sean Hannity? As I said, once Russia moves in, no one cares about the holy civilians anymore. No U.S. or UK outlet will touch it.
But, it’s not just the dumb windbags of conservativism.
I entered “Ukraine” into the search box of the website of Human Rights Watch (HRW), one of the “big two” (along with Amnesty International) human rights groups.
Among all their Ukraine condemnations and concerns since February, I found nothing regarding Ukrainian army bombardment of Donetsk or Russian-held towns and cities. Nothing.
Other than one late March piece about the killing of Russian prisoners—which was video-documented and received worldwide attention, so bad it couldn’t be ignored—their site hosts nothing critical of the Ukraine at all.
Is this a surprise?
Of course, the Ukraine war—and more recently, the revived drama over Roe v. Wade—present a HUGE fundraising opportunity for such groups, but to rake in that cash, they must be on the “correct” side of the issue.
Everything comes down to money.
Yet, that doesn’t explain (or does it?) why HRW’s site hosts an op-ed such as this, penned by one of its staff: “Why Cozying Up to Russia Gets South Africa Nowhere.”
LOL, what the hell?
Is this human rights, or politics?
Is HRW on the CIA’s payroll now?
I don’t know, but this war has surely been one of those “holy rollers ain’t so holy” realization moments.
Ruble insanity continues
As of this writing, the USDRUB currency pair has just reached into the low 62 range. This is crazy.
Yes, I predicted it—more precisely, I said it was possible, once the gas-for-rubles scheme got going—but it’s one thing to predict, and another to see.
If the ruble strengthens any more, or even stays at this level, we will have to admit that Russia’s living standard may be RISING because of the war.
What would Ms. Psaki the Bullshit Queen say about that?
Ukrainian manpower problems
Not that Territorial Defense militia units were not already being sent to fight outside their home regions, in violation of their contracts, but the Ukraine’s legislature and president finally codified this practice into law, a few days ago.
Most of the Territorial Defense are non-draft age, substantially non-reservist men with at most a brief conscription stint as teenagers, or just as (or more) likely, no military record or training at all.
I think this new law tells you all you need to know about the Ukraine’s manpower situation.
The Ukraine is even sending a Territorial Defense unit from Transcarpathia (on the Slovakian and Hungarian borders) east to fight Russia.
The idea of “Territorial Defense” is that people defend their own territories where they live. This is not what most of them signed up for.
If you want to know the truth, always consider what a state does (or doesn’t do), not what it says.
Democracy in action!
At the request of the Ukraine Security Service, Spanish police arrested Anatolii Sharii (spellings vary), a Ukrainian independent journalist, video blogger, opposition activist, and “joke” political party leader.
Sharii has long been a thorn in the side of the Maidan regime, and has been living in the European Union (most recently, Spain) since 2014, although he has remained deeply involved with the Ukraine.
In my opinion, Sharii’s greatest coup was bringing to global attention, through his video blog, in 2014, Ukrainian TV news footage of a Ukrainian army air defense encampment—with a complete “Buk” system in plain view—in the general vicinity of where the Malaysian Airlines Boeing was shot down. The footage had been taken and aired just a few days before the tragedy.
(Of course, it doesn’t prove anything, other than, the MSM never gave you all the facts.)
Per reports, his crime is “treason.” After his arrest, he was released pending processing of the Ukraine’s extradition request through Spain’s legal system.
It’s always nice to see Democratic countries taking Democracy seriously!
(There is widespread speculation that the Ukraine aims to trade him for the Mariupol Azov crew, seeing as how their prior suggested trade—Viktor Medvedchuk, head of OPZZh, the Ukraine’s largest opposition party, and the only large party not supporting the EU/NATO agenda, who was arrested and disappeared in late February and then surfaced in handcuffs a few weeks ago in the context of a proposed trade for the surviving Azov in Mariupol—was ixnayed by Russia. Again, this is just speculation, but it’s not totally nuts, as it does answer the question, why now?)
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Sorry to be boring but I am another Duran graduate who appreciates the work that you do
Alex Sent me over not disappointed great analysis thx
Pardon my ignorance but I can’t pick the music accompanying the video. I should know it. What is it?
It’s Prokofiev from Romeo and Juliet I think. I remember it from a channel cologne commercial years ago, I’m old
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UBd19R_5ysE
Thank you. For some reason I find it most apposite and appropriate at your excellent site. For your interest, it is at 28:04 – Roméo et Juliette, Op. 64: Act I – Danse des chevaliers by Prokofiev in the version on U Tube at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrt7pqB5Ecw
I know it’s time consuming but it’d be good if you were to post a video with every article.
Great stuff Jacob. Came on from a recommendation from Viva & Barnes. Have tried to spread the word but some folks just want to whistle past the graveyard. Keep it coming my brothers!
I really enjoy your posts and your style. But I am really concerned as to what is happening near Kharkov. It would be great to hear what you think. My suspicion (and hope) is that the Russians are deliberately encouraging mobile warfare to tempt the Ukrainians out of their difficult to attack fixed positions and away from the main residential areas. Am I kidding myself.
I also think that the Ukrainians are starting to send their best troops West because they know all is lost in the East.
As an Independence favoring Scot, I have come to find the whole Nato / EU hegemony completely disgusting. The collective west claims to support freedom and the right to self determination – but only when it suits them, and certainly not when it would weaken their puppet elensky.
At this moment in time, given the choice in an independent Scotland my vote would now 100% be against joining the EU and Nato.
10s of thousands of military and civilians lives destroyed just so the west can attempt regime change in Russia.
re: Rail traction in former USSR
Point of information
Electric locomotives here do not use 3rd rail power conductors: they receive their 25kv power supply from an overhead power line suspended from a catenary.
Third-rail power conductors are to be seen in the Russian and Kiev metro systems.
PS I live in Russia.
Thanks, I will publish a correction.
Thank you for the perspective. On the military side, how does NATO without the US match up with Russia and its allies. Ukraine was the second largest military in Europe and has lost 60% of its front line combat troops, air force, artillery and Navy, could NATO without US even replace that? The reason I ask is that China is going to demand a lot more attention from the US and Europe appears ill prepared to go toe to toe with the Russians and their allies.
if what you want is a negotiated settlement it makes sense to leave your enemy with much they can still lose.
Great report again, I love reading comments. I think Ruble will be equal to Dollar in year or two, Check other former soviet currencies like Belorussian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan Their economies are much smaller than Russian’s. Later American greedy corporation will be begging to get into Russian market again.
Great post again . I agree with what you and john said that NATO won’t get directly involved, the 2nd and 3rd fronts (which would be the trigger for escalation) haven’t happened (yet ?) But indirectly they’ll be there till the end . Feels like a scam to create the 2nd cold war and ramp up millitary spending for the next 40 years!! The vAk-sEEn companies have had some pie, the MIC wants some to .
Human Rights Watch is one of many billionaire-funded regime-change lobby groups created to provide global ideological support for the US-backed military coups. Here’s, for example, a comment from the Grayzone on the subject of the HRW’s cheers for the violent regime change in Bolivia a few years ago: “@HRW keeps whitewashing the fascist coup. They’re total frauds.” https://thegrayzone.com/2019/11/20/human-rights-watch-bolivia-coup-massacre/
Well I have something rather interesting to tell you people. If you maybe speak German you can confirm it for yourself. I’m sure the dreizinreport will have a good laugh about it. So the German media outlet Der Spiegel published an interview with Natalia Usmanova and claimed how the bad Russians didn’t let the poor civilians out of Azovstal.Some real journalist here the link https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2022/wie-leser-belogen-werden-der-spiegel-manipuliert-video-von-zivilisten-aus-asowstal/ grabbed out the full interview and well. They translated it correctly, but left the part out, where she says, it was the azov guys and that she doesn’t want to have anything to do with Ukraine anymore. Here the full video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tukuRh3eVF0&t
During the beginning [when Russia first-entered Afghanistan] all these wars mainly consumed Patriots, because the aliens could survey from the skies, & controlled the air-power to destroy them. In the hostile takeover of organizations or nations, there is a central ideological attitude & prime directive that is designed to remove all disunity, from any quarter. Thus “We stand with the Ukraine.” is the mantra.
The videos you incorporate in the articles have no audio after 10th sec. I tried all browsers i could think of and the issue is still persisting.
Otherwise, your articles are great. Very good analytical work with even greater sarcasm. Keep on
The videos are working well for the majority of our readers. If others have similar issues, please post a comment and let’s know. We have a considerable reader base and outside of some issues specific to a geographical area, are not aware of any technical issues.
How do I give you or Jacob my money? To mitigate the costs for invested time (into the site; this project)? If I give it to you can we verify you are associated? A few replies indicate you are. Internet gets crazy sometimes.
Thanks. We haven’t quit our day jobs just yet 🙂 Hold on to your money for now.
Absolutely love all of your data, attitude & delivery. It is unique and very helpful. Thank you!
thank you for the laugh “. surveillance camera footage from one of Russia’s cruise missile factories…”
Jacob Great Job! really enjoy your report and Humor. I am of the believe that follow the money. This “war” is another form for the democrats to stuff their pockets and perhaps recover some of the lost funds due to Russian Sanctions.
It is such a bizarre and odd narrative “Russia wanted to control Ukraine”. Especially 2 months into all this. I guess when you back yourself into a corner – you die fighting. Ukraine will now die fighting as well.
I understand FOX, CNN and some senior correspondents who earn six figures a year to influence Americans told us if we don’t accept this, we are the Kremlin. But just because an oppositional party (in a proxy war) says this is what they said – we say so! It does not mean it is true.
It is just bizarre.
It seems the political and military leadership of the West is struck by the mental “virus” of mass psychosis. How else can one explain the mountains of deception, lies, delusional thinking and decisions that lead to where we are now; on the brink of irreversible global catastrophe. Putin was right. We in the West reside in the “empire of lies”. Everything which the mainstream media spews out daily, everything our corrupted political class self righteously proclaim…all lies, all deception, all dystopian sleep walking towards the abyss of mass ruin. Humanity, or at least a large portion of it, must be afflicted by an incessant impulse to destroy itself at the earliest opportunity. This is a bad time to stop drinking.
Bravo!
no web site is ever complete let alone great without a robust comments section…because no matter how inciteful the author, they always attract a few who have spent years learning about what was just a throwaway line in their article…..
much can be learned from these comments……consider the author like a conductor….
just a thought…after my 3rd time reading your work….
The Shariy story is the funniest of the ongoing events for me because of how transparent it is. Zelensky’s goons claim he’s a “pro-Russian traitor” but the guy never really had a good word to say about Russia, least of all since February. However, he also had no good words to say about each successive Maidan-era government, with the brief exception of Zelensky himself as it so happens – he was betting on Zelensky as an “anti-Poroshenko” candidate and promoted him in the media stuff he runs, but it ended up about as well as things did for people who were betting on Biden as an “anti-Trump” candidate thinking he’d improve something. He quickly found plenty of disillusionment in Zebroni once he actually came into office and proved to be a wuss for Banderite influence to push where they want him.
Naturally, in Zelensky’s telling, everyone who’s not 100% with total war against Russia and his destruction of what passed for Ukraine’s political system, screwed seven ways to hell as it was, is a “pro-Russian traitor”. But Shariy has nothing to do with Russia and everything to do with simple score-settling – Zebroni was often said to be an extremely petty person nursing personal grudges against those who slighted him, well before he was made president, and Shariy didn’t just slight him, he did not pull any punches at all in flaming him in his coverage.
Thus, what makes it so hilarious is the sheer lack of critical judgement shown by Spain or MSM or the like. Here we’re looking at blatant targeting of a guy who personally annoyed Zelensky a lot, passed off as a “Russian agent” despite him having nothng to do with Russia and being hostile to it, and everyone acts as if it’s perfectly fine and reasonable because everything Holy Ze does cannot be wrong. It’s doubly hilarious because it makes it feel like Spain is lower on the pecking order of vassals than Ukraine. I wonder how Spaniards would feel about that if they realized.
I hear from you and others (like Alexander Mercouris) , whom I consider to be the best analytics on Ukraine issues available, that the strikes on the railroad infrastructure are related to the Western supplies of weapons. I’m not so sure. In fact, it seems to me the reason is the threat of NATO intervention, and I’ll explain why.
Firstly, if I’m not mistaken, the strikes started shortly after the Russian reports that Poland is considering intervention in Ukraine. While the howitzers and other heavy weaponry alike were earlier deemed as not effective for this situation by the West itself (until it ran out of Javelins and Stingers). So why would Russians begin to disrupt the supplies of weapons only after the more effective ones (per the Western reports) are already reached their destination, and what has left is cumbersome, ineffective and impractical heavy weaponry?
Secondly, you have pointed out that these strikes take place mainly in the west of Ukraine, and not the East, where the main Ukraine’s fighting forces are located.
Thirdly (and speculatively), I would think one of the Russian strategic objectives would be to flush as great number of ideologically opposed population as possible out of Ukraine into the EU, thus making the remaining population more susceptive to the Russian rule, while also fueling the popular dismay on the immigrants and war issues in the EU. To facilitate this outpouring of emigrants, functioning railroads and gasoline for the vehicles are needed. Destroying them, seems logical only if something bigger is at stake. I’m not sure a few hundreds T-72, APCs and assorted howitzers fit this definition.
And lastly, the main threat to Russian forces in Ukraine is not Ukraine armed forces, but the NATO. To delay its deployment, destroying transport infrastructure at the NATO-bordering parts of Ukraine, seems to me like an obvious choice.
Your “cumbersome, ineffective, and impractical heavy weaponry” is what Russia fears the most. The goal is to stop it from getting to the front lines.
Ahh… One of those blogsites, where one’s comment gets swallowed – presumably for vetting – leaving one with a sense of – ”… Did I actually comment? ” Anyway, in addition to my original ‘consumed’ comment – I’d really like to know what is happening with the Canadian Lt General Cadieu captured at Azovstal? Not that I suspect we’ll find-out anytime soon. But as soon as YOU have the gen, let us know. Spasiba Tovarisch.
I struggle to see how Russia “fears the most”: ~100 towed howitzers, ~100 M113 APC’s, half a dozen PzH-2000 SPH’s etc., while they have already destroyed order of magnitude more (by their own official account) of the similar (and yet “native” to Ukrainian armed forces) hardware. The only thing that can significantly change the balance of power, is the entrance of NATO countries into the war. As long as this threat persists, I would think it is much better (from the Russian perspective) do destroy Polish tanks (which, I believe have been transferred before the Russian strikes on line of communication in the Western Ukraine started) in a controlled environment of Donbass, than to fight them being deployed by Poland in the Western Ukraine. Same goes for the rest of the Western hardware that is being sent to Ukraine. At least that is how it seems to me.
What’s your read on the counter offensive by Ukrainian forces south of Kharkov?
Your biting sarcasm is absolutely marvelous. More!
Excellent work.
As ever, your posts are very insightful and (along with a very few others) one of the only sources of sanity amidst this unwinding tragedy. The video of people who are ecstatic at the arrival of the Donetsk militia that you linked before is the main image of this conflict that is now embedded on my mind.
Your insight that Russia initially miscalculated by thinking that it could carry out a limited offensive and then pursue a negotiated settlement feels spot on. The west (mainly US, UK and the EU bureaucracy) who fund Zelensky seem to have been the main cause of that. As you point out, their main immediate “achievement” by doing so has been to convert this into a full war of “liberation” or “conquest”, depending on taste, as Russia has reoriented to reality. Clear that the whole paraphernalia of civil administration is being Russified now behind her army (I saw pictures of new road signs and even driving licence application forms!) to show people that it is real.
The other, potentially even more significant result has been to convince Putin once and for all that the west really does mean harm to Russia and paradoxically justifying the war even if (and maybe because) it is much harder to win than originally thought. In the west, we have recently fought wars of choice: paying a higher price might well dissuade one from fighting such a war. But in a war that is a true existential threat then a great power will pay the price that is needed. Having to pay a higher price actually demonstrates the reality of the threat. Another western miscalculation. We seem to have put Russia in this dangerous position. Awesome work by our bloated military industrial bureaucracies seeking revenue and career enhancement, as well as by our ideologically driven political clowns.
Clear that the west wants war with Russia and is prepared to use Ukrainian lives to achieve that. Shocking too, as you say, that so called western human rights organisations seem captured by the narrative too. I think you are right: funding must be a major cause. That had not quite occurred to me! I do believe it drives the media too.
tiny Serbia held out until an agreement was reached with NATO that Kosovo would remain sovereign Serbian territory, which was then voted on in the UN per Resolution 1244… that 9 years later the Kosovo Albanians declared independence with the blessing of a duplicitous West should not retrospectively give success to the 1999 NATO air campaign
Lots of interesting info, especially in your video. I look forward to your posts.
I was surprised by what you said in your video about the Kherson region being slowly incorporated into the Russian Federation. It has been my understanding until now that after the fighting is over, this region, as well as Donetsk and Lugansk, and maybe also other parts of the south – Mariupol and Odessa – will hold referendums in which the people will be able to choose their future. From what I have been hearing in Russia, these regions will not be brought under Russian legislation unless the local population vote unanimously in favor of this. Maybe things have changed though…
Choose their future, how quaint 🙂 Their future has already been chosen. No population ever votes “unanimously”, but, Russia will get the vote that it needs, wherever it needs it, just as happened in Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk. Russia wouldn’t even facilitate a vote, unless it knew the population was favorable to begin with.
Thanks for reading and commenting.
Hey there Jacob great content … Just wondering if you can please collate your commentary videos under one heading? Perhaps called “Video commentary” so they are in one location? Specifically your commentary videos please. Thanks, steve @newsypaperz (twit)
Steve, will take your request for consideration. This site and content is a part time activity for both Jacob and me and it is time consuming just to keep it updated.
Very interesting info, especially in your video. I look forward to your posts.
Jacob, thank you very much for great reports. I read them as soon as they are out! (Referred here by Alexander Mercouris.) My only question is: why do you seem surprised by the HRW and Amnesty International? Don’t you know of their “work” demonizing Israel at least since the 2000 offset of the intifada (when I started paying attention)?
Good question. With regards to the Arab-Israeli conflict, they have their trendy New York leftist donor constituency to please. I did not imagine the same would be the case for Russia-Ukraine. But, the Narrative is the Narrative. All these people march in lockstep.
Like others here, I’ve just parachuted in – under orders from The Duran – Excellent work Jacob, along with the aforementioned and others, most especially – Richard Medhurst and Brian Bretelic (The New Atlas), the invaluable Scott Ritter and the valiant ‘boots-on-the-ground’ Indy journalists – Patrick Lancaster and Graham Phillips – With continued VPN access to RT itself… We get a far more informed account/appraisal of the Ukraine situation than would ever be possible with Western MSM. I have notificatons enabled, so I’ll be monitoring your blog here on in. Spasiba Tovarisch.
Pointing out that Israel is an apartheid state that steals land from Palestinians and illegally detains and kills them is not “demonising,” it’s simply acknowledging the facts.
Your facts, their facts. Have some humility. Don’t come to my site and spew borrowed talking points like a zombie.
Yes, you are correct. Israel is doing a steady ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians who are systematically destroyed without the world leaders seeming to care. I did not expect such a response from Jacob Dreizen. I just joined and did not expect he would practice censorship on his site. I am sad about this.
What censorship? I published both his comment and your comment. If you don’t like me telling people not to be stupid, find another site. There is no rule that the site owner can’t comment, LOL. This site is 95% about the Ukraine, I don’t need people like you crapping their Palestine occupation blah blah on here. It’s not the right place. Go somewhere else.
Jacob, first thanks for posting my comment; you didn’t censor me in any way. Second, I was just replying to some alleging that Israel was demonized. I didn’t bring up the topic, and I didn’t come to your site to push my views. Re what I wrote, I have plenty of actual facts to back up what you refer to as talking points, but the sum of them is what I said earlier. I’m happy to discuss the topic with you or others. But I completely respect your authority – your site, your topics, your rules. Even if you wanted to publish pro-Israeli views while banning anti-Israeli views, I can always stop reading if I find it intolerable or unsubscribe.
Hey, I’m sorry we got off on the wrong foot. Please note I didn’t start the topic, nor did I mean to cause any trouble. I’m thrilled to be a subscriber, and happy to learn from you in an area where you have greater knowledge and expertise than me. Best of luck to you and the site!
I’m another person who has arrived from the Duran, and am mightily impressed. Which is more than I can say about Amnesty International – they used to be in line for 20% of my worldly goods in my will, but I changed that a few years ago when it became clear that they were guided more by politics than humanitarianism.
But I must say that I’m surprised at Jacob’s reply to Imran. People who actually know the background to the Russia-Ukraine situation are always being aggressively dismissed by those who don’t as just mindlessly repeating Kremlin propaganda. It’s a pity to see the same tactics used here against those whose knowledge of the Middle-East allows them to correct someone who tendentiously introduced that off-topic subject.
Apart from that niggle, congratulations to Jacob on a superb website! It’s a great addition to the community of truth-tellers about this conflict.
P.S. I’ve just seen Imran’s constructive and gentlemanly reply, and completely agree. Jacob can do whatever he wants with his own site, and be as polite or rude as he likes to commentators, or censor them at will. I hope and expect that he will choose the constructive course, as this is such a worthwhile website – it would be a tragedy for it to go the way of Turcopolier!
This is not a free for all, it’s not 4chan or 8chan or your community bulletin board. If you want to talk about Palestine liberation, saving the whales, abortion, you can find other sites for it. Not going to let people crap over my comments section with their own nontangential, pet topics. You’re free to move on. I hope you do.
“We waited for you, you came …” That says it all. Your choice of videos, from the somber voices next to the mass grave, to the dog lady, to the explosion with the background reactions (calm observers filming, frightened woman) gives a comprehensive insight of the realities on the ground. Excellent reporting.
It may be that the main Ukraine forces are near Odessa and Donbass is a holding operation.
From the Duran. Enjoying your analysis and wit. Speaking of fixing stupid, I’m guessing Angelina Jolie couldn’t fix the energy and infrastructure issues on her visit. Perhaps she was baby shopping, or dating Canadian Generals. I’m not an expert.
On to the Next Thing! https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&geo=US&q=ukraine
I just heard from Scott Ritter that the Ukrainian arm forces are losing 1-2 battalions a day. That is about 1000 people a day if my google search is correct. In one or two months, there will be no more men left to fight, let alone equipment. If they lose 1000 men a day, that should go with at least 1-2 hundred vehicles of some sort per day. The Russians will probably not lose a tenth of that since they are mostly staying stationary and fighting with their cannons. Even when they take towns, the towns were mostly emptied of Ukrainian troops before they move in except a couple of places like Popasna. Even with street to street fighting, the odds still favor the Russians since they have armor and cannons. If the Ukrainian armor appear in large numbers, they can always call in their cannons or even airstrike. In most cases, it will be Russian foot soldiers aided with Russian armor against Ukrainian foot soldiers with no armor.
If I’m not mistaken, there’s an interview circulating of Arestovich – as close as you get to the brains of the Kiev operation – speculating in 2019 that there would be a war in 2022, 2024 and 2026. Now why would there be more than one? He is acknowledging that Ukraine cannot outright win an initial war with Russia. But, he hopes, that at some point the fact of war with Russia would drag NATO in. In other words, he accepts the loss of a great many Ukrainians in exchange for NATO membership and direct NATO war with Russia in Ukraine. This is part of the reason why they don’t seem to mind sending untrained troops to the front to get chewed up by Russian artillery. What they have left of trained and loyal men they are re-training and consolidating in the west with western arms in the hopes of a successful counter attack on exhausted Russian forces. If that fails, they’re likely banking on actual NATO intervention. (Notice they care very much about getting their Azovs out of Mariupol, but not about the thousands of conscripts – essentially civilians dragooned into service – getting annihilated in Donbass. They hope to rebuild their nation on the basis of loyal Azovites, not regular Ukrainians.) My sense is that this regime considers Ukraine as it is to be insufficiently “Ukrainian,” that is insufficiently made up of the kinds of people they want – hence the 100k+ far-right mercenaries brought in to swell the ranks of Azov. So, they’re using this war to cull the territory and build a new nation. Manpower, then, is not really a concern, unless it upsets the timetable.
If this seems not too dissimilar for what the left hopes for the United States, than you begin to understand why elements within our government enthusiastically support Azov. Spiritually Azov and the left are very similar. Cf: https://twitter.com/SarahAshtonLV Enthusiastic supporter of an Azov off-shoot, Kraken, on the ground in Kharkov. And actively trying to get Americans with the wrong politics killed. And yes beholden to the most aggressive current leftist ideologies.
@troylus, they are dreaming. There won’t be NATO involvement. NATO is the U.S. The Poles will never go one on one against the Russians. The Russians, with an economy of Italy, made a decision not to build an army to match NATO. They just don’t have the resources unlike the Soviet Union. That is what their nuclear weapons are for. If the U.S. gets involved at Ukraine and the Russians are losing, tactical nukes will be used to take out 50K U.S. troops. After that it is up to the U.S. to retaliate and escalate this into a full nuclear war. This is why as crazy as Brandon was, he did not want to directly confront the Russians militarily. The Russians will take at least the Eastern Ukraine and the South West. Once they have taken these two areas, if they keep pushing north on West Ukraine, there is nothing the Ukrainians can do to stop them. If that were to happen, the Poles might negotiate with the Russians to keep a small area adjacent their border in exchange for the Russians to take the rest. It depends on how credible their threat to the Russians will be. After that, there will be no more Ukraine.
Excellent. As I’ve written as well, the only situation under which tactical nukes would be used in the Ukraine, is if some NATO country army or armies get involved there directly. Russia absolutely can and will handle the Ukraine alone without any nukes, the mere thought of their use (absent a foreign intervention) is ridiculous.
Yes, what Putin is fighting is not Ukraine. He is fighting NATO and the U.S. Ukraine is just a battleground. His goal should be to break NATO. By that I don’t mean a direct military confrontation. If he can demonstrate, in a long drawn out war, that no matter what NATO tried during this whole process, we are impotent to do anything to alter the fate of Ukraine, NATO will implode. It will take a few years, but the narrative will change over time as the reality sinks in. All the little countries around Russia, including Poland and Finland, will have to consider the security concerns of Russia once this is over. To change the hearts and minds of the Ukrainians, they need to demonstrate that no matter what NATO is doing, Ukraine cannot disregard the Russian security concerns. We will all see how opinions of the population will flip once they lose the war.
The term ‘left’ is selectively subjective. When in context with Americans – Left is everyone elses centrist or neo-lib. When in context with Europeans (or us Brits…), or the rest of the human planetary domain, Left = socialists. I’m a socialist. By definition left wing – VERY left wing. So my point is, bandying about the term ‘left’ needs to be done with caution on comment pages such as this. Unless you are either apolitical or right-wing (as per the A3OV’s…).
If I were referring to the American political paradigm, I’d use the term Democrat or Republican – both of which, like our Labour and Conservative/Tory are the opposite sides of the same bent capitalist coin – and thus resemble socialists as about as much as a guitar resembles a submarine…
What do you make of reports yesterday and today that 1) U.S. intelligence helped Ukraine kill Russian generals, and 2) U.S. intelligence helped Ukraine sink Moskva with Neptune missiles? Wondering why U.S. intelligence suddenly feels the need to brag.
Because all those ‘stories’ are from Ukraine and have very little credibility. US itself has denied it had anything to do with sinking the Moskava
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-denies-sending-ukraine-targeted-intelligence-help-sink-moskva-warship-2022-5
But Elensky bragged about a meeting with US head of ministry of Defense (?) and Blinken and published photos with them after they left. Even though it was supposed to be a secret, I think. So, Maybe US did help. Of couse, they won’t admit it openly, but Elensky is just too stupid and narcissistic to waste an opportunity to brag about something he considers a “win”
I think those are 2 big nothingburgers cooked to drum up support for US involvement. 1. Russian Generals lead from the front lines, unlike Western Generals who lead from headquarters. There is always a body in place to move on up and assume command of those semi-autonomous units. 2. The Moskva “FLAGSHIP” was an 80’s era ship that carried the flag in its 3 ship grouping. Western press tries to make these things sound like some big deal, but they’re not, merely minor incidents of war. But postured as they are, they indicate which side is losing.
Hi Jacob, great analysis as always. Can you provide a separate HTML link for your third videoblog offensive? The image click for the video does not work in China, but direct links to videopress do work. Cheers!
Hao, the problem you are having seems to be limited to you or your location. The link follows but we cannot be posting every url for every video in the future.. You may want to try the Opera browser which includes a VPN that may help if it is a location issue, https://videos.files.wordpress.com/vKu5GSmG/video-commentary-iii-2022.05.05.mp4
Jacobis really interesting. I heard of him on The Duran Channel
PUT A SUICIDE WATCH ON LINDSAY GRAHAM!!!
Thanks for that. My best laugh this week.
Jacob, please put a link to the chart showing the value of the Rouble as when I check online it is always a much higher number than your choice of chart. You could possibly make it a live link so a ‘hand’ appears when you drag the cursor across it.
Thanks for all you do.
Hello! My link would be the same thing you check online. The chart picture is naturally a snapshot of some past moment. If it’s now 68 not 62, well, it’s not a static thing. It’s still much stronger than before the war.
Dreizin’s reports are spot-on. He along with the Duran and Scott Ritter are breaths of fresh air compared to the ridiculous Western MSM.