My below video summarizes:
- Recent Ukrainian moves off the coast of Odessa, in the context of U.S. direct operational assistance to Ukrainian forces in this area.
- Developments in the Donbass, with a broader explanation of the tactical picture.
Please note, in this video, when I twice said “electronic warfare”, I meant to say “signals interception.” I do not script or even much prepare for my videos, thus, sometimes I misspeak, in which case, I will publish a correction.
(As further clarification on the first part, Snake Island is about 15 miles off the Ukrainian coast, but, it is unlikely that Ukrainian artillery positions are exposed right on the beach on the mainland. The artillery is likely operating near or at its maximum operational range, against Russian positions on a very small island of only some tens of acres in size. In the video, I don’t guess at what targeting assistance the U.S. may have provided, but anything is “on the table”, up to and including laser-guided munitions, which the Ukraine never had in the past.)
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Ukraine – Military Developments Over the Weekend
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Poland itching to move into the Ukraine
(All humans are urged to finalize their wills, “get right with God”, etc. etc.)
Considering the following factors…..
- Poland’s president recently promised that “there will be no more borders” between Poland and the Ukraine.
- Poland’s military mobilization and its joint training with U.S. forces/instructors continues to accelerate to a very high degree.
- The media “prep work” (a.k.a. brainwashing of the masses) and most recently also the polling has been done; it is clear that Poland’s public is now favorably disposed to intervention in the Ukraine.
- Due to repeated Russian cruise missile strikes on key infrastructure, the U.S. hegemonic bloc’s ability to deliver heavy weaponry to the Ukraine (by rail) is strained, and will totally collapse this month without the activation of NATO country air defenses over western Ukraine.
…..It is clear that Poland strongly intends to move its most combat-capable forces (approximately one division) into northwest Ukraine.
For Polish interests specifically, this would be an imperial move to restore Poland’s historical dominance over western Ukraine, pure opportunism, nothing about saving the Ukraine.
(I won’t guess at a timeline, but it could be this month.)
Uncle Sam was clearly hesitant to give the go-ahead, but, while I could be wrong, I believe number (4), above, is (or will soon be) the clincher.
As I have written, the probability of tactical nuclear weapons being used inside the Ukraine, goes from precisely zero point zero zero, to “something”, if a NATO country army or armies become involved openly, directly inside the Ukraine.
Of course, use of tactical nuclear weapons may lead to the use of strategic nuclear weapons.
I trust that all readers are prepared to die for the Ukraine.
(CLARIFICATION IN LIGHT OF RECENT COMMENTS: If Poland moves in while the war is still ongoing, it would have NATO country (U.S. and German and other) air defense support from just across the Polish and Slovak borders, which would interfere with Russian bombing of Ukrainian rail and other infrastructure, and possibly of the NATO weapons shipments themselves. So, we cannot say that Russia’s war effort would be unaffected by the Polish presence. Very much to the contrary.)
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About Poland, Dmitri Medvedev mentioned that the region of Galicia is historically Polish, I sincerely think that Russia will not stand in the way if Poland takes this region from Ukraine, the question is when it does, if it does now Russia will surely tell you the consequences, but if he does it when the dombass region is controlled, he will surely invite poland to take lviv and all this part of ukraine, i see this as a problem for poland, what will the ukrainian ultranationalists say about this? pravy sector? Azov? maybe poland wins one more enemy in ukraine apart from russia.
I’d expect Russia will already be talking quietly with Poland and others. Any negotiation will involve the removal of the Bandera statue in Lviv I’m sure.
I sure hope so…
And give Hungary a piece of the action too. Ukraine cut up between Russia , Poland and Hungary might well give the Russia a political sheild to in the UN and other international forums. Always good to point the finger and say ‘what about them!!!’
It seems if Poland invades, then western Ukrainians will have to demilitarize, denazify, reject NATO aspirations, and remain neutral. Western Ukrainians will have to subject themselves to Poland’s militarization, Poland’s version of neo-nazism, accept Poland’s NATO aspirations, and join Poland’s aggressive policies. Of course, unless Russia has their own plans for Western Ukraine.
Either way, Western Ukrainian aspirations for their own military, nazification, NATO inclusion, and non-neutrality is gone. The West already told Ukraine it will not happen, Russia told them they will not allow it to happen, and Poland, if Russia has no dog in that fight, might be the hammer in Western Ukraine to nail that notice on their door; it reads: “Condemned: This Structure is Declared Unfit…”.
Hi Guillermo, I think you’re onto something interesting that no one knows how it will play out, if at all.
Poland clearly is reeved up, but I am not sure if the Polish people are though. Chances are this is a historic lust.
If Poland can time its invasion, and waits for things to settle in Ukraine, waits for the bear to finish his kill . . . Poland can come in and scavenge off the rump Ukraine carcass, specifically Galicia. Galicia use to belong to Poland, but it is also the birthplace of the pre-Bandera anti-Poland nationalist movement from WW1 that later gave rise to Bandera and that crowd. So, yeah, it will be something to keep an eye on.
Missing: it is the Ukrainian government’s right to invite Poland troops in. This past week the 2 govt’s signed defense agreements.
Two: “without the activation of NATO country air defenses over western Ukraine”, oh no, this is exactly what the US MIC does not want – a test of strength. It appears that the RF is competently batting away UKR ballistic missile attacks. Can the US protect against Kalibre ? Kinzal ??? Does the US want to find out ? And if the US cannot prevent against RF attacks ? Counter-factual – RF does not want to use it’s best weapons.
Yes, western Ukraine is historically Polish, but western Poland is historically German. The smart postwar settlement deprived Poland of a place of mixed ethnicity, western Ukraine, but compensated it with far more prosperous entirely German lands to its west. So Poland taking western Ukraine, now almost entirely Ukrainian, attacks the post-WW2 arrangement that (1) was very good for Poland and (2) for 78 years has matched the ethnic reality in western Ukraine.
if Russia allows Poland to seize Western Ukraine then Western Ukraine becomes part of NATO by default. And if Western Ukraine is used as staging ground for war with Russia and Russia attacks the it’s an attack on NATO. Thus this could be a trap for Russia. Russia must not allow Poland to seize Western Ukraine
What is that beautiful piece of music playing at the beginning and at the end of each program? I am so thankful to have found your very informative site thanks to Alex And Alexander at The Duran.
“Montagues and Capulets” (Romeo and Juliet ballet) by Prokofiev.
Thanks ever so much! For weeks now the music has been going through my head while I drive, while I shave, at the oddest places and times. I knew I had listened to it when I was much younger but couldn’t bring back the name of the composer although, happily, I’d gotten as far as convincing myself he had to be Russian. My brain hasn’t totally turned to ice cream in old age, I guess!
A.k.a. Dance of the Knights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBsKplb2E6Q
Sergei Prokofiev ‘Romeo and Juliet’ Op.64/Act 1 ‘Dance of the Knights’
It’s the Dance of the Knights, from Romeo and Juliet, by Prokofiev. Probably my most favorite piece of music together with Khachaturian’s Masquerade suite waltz.
Thank you for another great, insightful analysis, Jacob. Do you think Russia might actually welcome Poland’s attempt at a land grab in Western Ukraine, thereby shifting the focus of Ukrainian Ultra-nationalists from Donbass to their true and native land?
“I trust that all readers are prepared to die for the Ukraine.”
Why…Thank you very much! Just discovered you. Pity it should all end this way over a congenitally corrupt and evil country…..US or Ukraine….they may as well be twins.
Dear Jacob, thanks a million for you high quality report and your effort and good faith.
One question that is sidetracked or bypassed by even objective reporters is this: “OK, suppose Russia has destroyed the biggest and most trained part of Ukrainian army in Donbas. Granting this, what are they going to do with Kiev? What could their plans be regarding KIEVE?” Jacob, what is your perspective on this?
Thanks in advance
Phil
Thank you. Another very informative video. As a side note, I agree the music is beautiful and it goes wonderfully with the opening graphics that is very attractive.
Really we still do not know what happened to the cruiser !
Jacob sort of answers that: state of the art US wave skipping cruise missile, US targeting, probably Ukrainian finger on the button, pretence that it was a (primitive) Ukrainian ‘Neptune’ missile to save Uncle Sam’s blushes.
Dear Jacob. One question that always seems to be bypassed even by the most objective and unbiased observers is what is the fate of Kyiv? Suppose Russian army will take control over Donbas and basically destroys the best part of Ukrainian army. So what is Russia going to do about Kyiv? What’s your views on this?
Thanks in advance
I think the real question is what will the Ukrainians do with Kiev? I think Russia will stay out of it.
The Russians will leave Kiev alone as it is, for old times sake. Probably would remain as the capital of what would be left of Ukraine.
The whole Snake Island assault was indicative of the way Ukraine is fighting this war. Pointless PR offensives of no discernable military value resulting in the pointless deaths of men and the destruction of scarce resources. It’s sheer lunacy.
Regarding Snake Island. Ukraine landed one (or more) helicopters with troops, and a drone was recording the glorious recapture of the island. But the helo(s) exploded from Russian fire. Bunch of people dead. Russia claims they downed Ukraine helos attempting to land. But Ukraine also claims they downed the helo(s) which were Russian, not Ukranian. Do I have that right?
I believe the Russian version. Only a suicidal idiot would sit on an island bracketed by Ukraine and Russian artillery. It’s a no-man’s land as far as I can tell. But I wasn’t there, so what do I know?
You are right about the Russian version. What really amazes me this far into this special military operation is that the Russians are going about it like true gentlemen, which is a total opposite and something that could not be said about all their adversaries, US and NATO included.
The big question of the highly likely Polish intervention is how Ukraine will react? Ukros are not famous for loving Poles and viceversa but still, opening a second front for the outworn Ukro army sounds too much.
In anyway, if the Pokes want their piece of the pie, they need first US approval.
Ukro nationalists should know by now that they will lose East and South Ukraine and highly likely their access to the Black Sea. If on top of that, they also lose Lviv, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk, it won’t be that much Ukro land in the future anymore.
By the way, Hungary and Romania also have indigenous populations in sections of Ukraine that look keen to get.
But main point at least at present: How will the Ukros react against a Polish intervention?
The main question is… you have used the expression “highly likely” twice in a comment.
These terms are reserved for a very select group of people with great sense of humour, like myself, Maria Zakharova… Sergei Lavrov… Have you applied for membership yet?
So, has it been confirmed, then, that the Moskva was actually sunk by missiles, rather than, as we also heard, some ‘accident’ in the ammo section of the ship?
No, all we have are educated guesses or suppositions. The favourites seem to be a real sea skimming missile, not a Ukrainian warmed up Soviet missile, or a mine. If the US had a hand in it that is a 30 year secret. It all really depends on whether Russia tells all or not.
Interesting and dangerous how the sleepy Joe regime just can’t help themselves by announcing their part in the killing of Russian soldiers.
They seem to have the same mentality of the majority of the american people, thinking war is some video game where you run towards your opponent firing off your weapon while performing acrobatic stunts…..
The point being that such bragging will not only be met with the usual ignorant cheering but will embolden the regime to further and more intense provocations……and that…..is the real danger since the Russian military will certainly have to respond at some point and Putin has already warned the west twice……i doubt there will be any more warnings.
Thank you for your UNBIASED reporting.. i really APPRECIATE IT.
I have WAY TOO MUCH COMMON SENSE to believe the BULL CRAP news that US MEDIA + UK MEDIA throws at us (especially those US Cheerleaders = CNN, BBC, Guardian, Reuters and so on. You and DURAN are among the VERY FEW with real facts.
With regard to the SNAKE island attack.. i actually saw this video yesterday (released by Ukraine sources that claimed, Ukraine hit the Russian Helicopter while the troops were landing on the island, and the helicopter explode). But because i have a BRAIN, i knew this STORY DID NOT MAKE SENSE. Let me explain my thinking = in the video the helicopter has landed on the Snake Island, and around 10+ troops are getting off the helicopter. To me this scenario seemed like the attacking force (Ukraine Solders) are trying to RECAPTURE the Snake Island. And then a missile strikes the helicopter and it explodes with the Ukraine troops dead.
(i really hope people will question more about the BULL CRAP videos that Ukraine releases daily). I look forward to your next article asap.
Dave, you have a brain. You have common sense. . . nothing the Mainstream Media really worries about when bs-ing their intended audience.
So here is the easy way to get all of NATO involved in Ukraine. This may be the plan with Poland. Ukraine holds a vote similar to Crimea but to join Poland. Poland accepts a positive vote to annex Ukraine. Suddenly Russia is now invading Poland. Ukrainians would not really like it but any vote would be a sham.
How might the US respond if Russia shot down an AWACS or similar, or disabled surveillance satellites?
Jacob, thanks for the excellent content. I’m another reader who got here via Duran. Like others, part of the reason I’ve been searching out sources like this is that I’m trying to reassure myself that I haven’t gone crazy in questioning the mainstream script that’s convicted everyone around me.
I’ll concede that searching out these sites could be an aspect of confirmation bias but, at the same time, I find it hard to ignore how deaf, dumb and blind my fellow Canadians are when it comes to questioning the party line. While it’s difficult to judge who wins the prize for the most intellectually lazy people in the Anglosphere, Canadians must surely be in the running for the top prize. Between the media and popular culture playing on people’s emotions and the politicians pandering to a large segment of the voting population with, until recently, long forgotten Ukrainian roots, Canada has gone nuts. Nobody seems to recall Afghanistan and what a waste of blood and treasure it was (all of it invested in a delusional story line similar to Ukraine… Democracy! Human rights! Western values!). That 20-year disaster wrapped up less than a year ago. Are people’s memories really so short?
The Ukraine catastrophe, as far as I can discern, lies primarily at the feet of the US and the various – let’s face it, mostly irrelevant – NATO states like Canada whose politicians are now grandstanding in an effort to out Churchill one another. I’ll ignore our embarrassing Prime Minister (a sorry subject of its own) and only mention our Foreign Minister Melanie Joly who, caught up in a spell of exaggerated self importance, harps about Russian war crimes in an effort to stay in the spotlight alongside the even more insufferable UK Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss. On that note, I recently caught a brief clip on our national broadcaster, the CBC (state-sponsored just like RT and, dare I say, even less objective), that showed footage of a group of people somewhere in Ukraine diligently researching war crimes. How do I know they were doing that? Well, they were all wearing matching blue jackets with “War Crimes Prosecutor” emblazoned in white across the back. You cannot make this stuff up!
Where are the Western voices speaking up in favour of deescalating this terrible situation to minimize the loss of life and threat of a larger war?!? Instead, we have the media hyping up Canadian ex special ops sniper, “Wali” volunteering to serve in Ukraine. To his credit, he just returned and gave an interview to the Quebec newspaper La Presse where he revealed how disillusioning it was (https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/2022-05-06/retour-du-tireur-d-elite-wali/la-guerre-c-est-une-deception-terrible.php). While I appreciate his recent candour, how could he have been so foolish to not have sifted through the mainstream bullshit to better understand what a hot mess Ukraine is and how this conflict evolved? Instead, his impulsive volunteering was splashed all over the front pages by the starry-eyed Canadian media people. And, of course, like some half-hearted newspaper retraction in small print on the last page, the article in La Presse doesn’t show up in any mainstream news aggregators and is buried in the media background (written in French too which assures that the vast majority of Anglophones won’t bother with it).
Oh boy, this is a long one. I will approve it now, try to read it later. 🙂 Hopefully, nothing here in violation of my comments policy.
The moderation on this site is as cool as the original analysis. Brilliant.
To address the comment: I think the UK is competing hard with Canada for the accolade of being most nuts in the western world! It’s definitely a challenging competition with some real contenders. Having read the moderation policy, I will avoid disagreeing with the comment with respect to Canada winning though……
Our truly appalling Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is headlined today describing the WW2 Victory Parade today as being Nazi like. The irony is just out of this world. Maybe he is in a personal internal UK competition to be more nuts than Johnson and Truss. Our politicians and corporate media are deranged.
Yes, the Western media are a flock of sheep controlled by and enamored with their governments’ dreams of world domination. Russia has self-respect and rejects the USA-led globalist (oligarchs) plans. So Russia must be punished.
Nicely put. You should start your own column 🙂
I was really starting to despair that it seems that a majority of people are really swallowing all the BS that the western corporate mainstream media are dishing out, hook, line and sinker. I hope that more people are enlightened as you but we just do not hear from them more often, instead we see a lot of these imbeciles eating a lot of these BS from these western corporate MSMedia.
If Poland “annexes” West Ukraine, would the Ukrainians flooding an energy-challenged EU make the European chaos worse than it’s going to be already?
Please keep doing what you are doing. If nothing else it will be some truth in future written history about this debacle.
Surface search radar would be limited by line-of-sight due to the curvature of the Earth. If the ship was hundreds of kilometres away, and the maximum range of even the most powerful surface search radar is 38km, then one would need a third party (usually an aircraft, helicopter or drone, or a nearby ship or sub) to find the target and then facilitate over-the-horizon (OTH) targeting. I do not know of any surface search radar, or fire control radar, that features the ability to bounce radar energy off the ionosphere to provide OTH targeting.
Well well well, sounds like you called for an AWACS? Thanks for your order, coming right up…
There was a RC-135V/W Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft loitering off the Romanian Coast out to Sochi and back a few days ago. There is always a Globalhawk drone out there as well (Forte11). There are always AWCS cruising back and forth somewhere from Latvia and Constanta including the day that this event happened. It’s all on FlightRadar24 dot com on the first item of the drop down menu to the left (most tracked flights).
The Yanks gave them artillery that is supposedly ensconced around Odessa that shoots Excalibur artillery rounds. It didn’t have to be a cruise missile.
It is unlikely that Excaliber was used as it is not only expensive, but doesn’t have the range or explosive power to sink ships.
That may have been used against the island, though.
Still lots of activity in the South Ukraine/Romanian area as NATO keeps an eye out near the scene of that battle for Zmiinyi Island (AKA Snake Island) the other day.
NATO11 Boeing E-3A Sentry AWACS circling CE Romania just on the coast at the Ukrainian border right now – 22Mar11 17:30 their time. This is the area where I saw the RC-135 Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft circling the day of the attack on Zmiinyi Island.
AirTanker LGAR292 is loitering a little bit more inland. Looks like NATO11 might be going over there to pick up more fuel. Nope, kept right on going heading back west. It crossed over the tanker at 34,000 feet and tanker was down at 25,000 feet.
– flightradar24
That’s because you haven’t read Tom Clancy!
Jokes aside, I’m sure their “eyes in the sky” are way, way above 35000 ft…
Great stuff, Jacob. You and Brian Berletic are tops on the military situation at a granular level;.
A question?
Given their propaganda record on countback, when will the Ukrainian Information Ministry be forced to resort to their first manipulated Final Fantasy or WoW-extracted game clip to display their prowess, being as Zelenskyy’s old production crew are likely running low on alternatives, and the Western MSM putting so much pressure on them to deliver good news?
Final Fantasy is a stretch. More realistically, Starcraft or possibly Sonic the Hedgehog. They have to stick to what the MSM will believe.
Yes, it seems in addition to losing Popasna, the Severodonetsk front is starting to collapse, the Russians are also in the process of taking the region in Lyman and have broken through to the south of the river there. All the while the Ukrainians are attacking Kharkiv and Snake Island, two areas that are strategically insignificant. The Ukrainians are going for a PR win while the Russians are actually winning big in the battlefield.
Going forward with nuclear warfare will save us from having our civilization collapse, in about two generations, due to the climate crisis.
Hahahah lol
But I thought we only had 12 years left??? LOL
Thanks for your insights! Love the Prokofiev into music, very fitting! 👍
As always , great analysis. On the point of finding your page , I had a trouble finding it , since I’ve tried couple of spelling versions of the name I’ve just heard on Duran , until someone in the comments section gave the correct version of the name. Can you ask the Alex & Alexander to include the link to your site in their description box on you tube and , possibly , on other platforms ? I think that it will help , because I wasn’t the only one struggling to find it . On the subject of Poland entering Ukraine , there is a great possibility that it will happen , but there is a question of timing. If Russian coalition achieves their objectives and military operations stop (in broader terms) , then , maybe , Russia won’t react in military manner on Polish incursion in Ukraine. However , even in that case , there might be trouble (regardless of Ukrainian reactions) in Europe , because , if Poland can take Galicia (western Ukraine) which was historically Polish until end of WW II , then , what stops the other countries to search for the same “historic correction” , like , for example Germany can try to take back Slesia (western Poland now) and the Germans had just decided that they will assign 100 Billion Euros for military ? Combined with ginormous economic decline and inflation , which knocks on the EU doors , can we expect (in longer term) that it will create conditions like it was before WW II (Weinmar republic) and , combined with gloming predictions of poverty and hunger (to some extent) in Europe , rise of right movements , which can result in more than political and media turmoil ?
Just a thought, Ukraine already had large sovereign debts and is racking up huge ones now courtesy of the US and others. When this is over, who will be left holding the bag? I bet it won’t be Russia or Poland.
I started to observe yor blog about 1,5 weeks ago. Keep up a good work!
I come from and live in Poland and I am deeply worried about the current situation with respect to our politicians openly stating the “no border” policy.
We’ve already let more than 3 milion of Ukrainians across our borders mostly women with children and elderly people.
and I am just wondering what happens once husbands, some of them from Azov or Aidar batalions, joim their wifes …
Just out of curiosity: is it true that Ukranians (prior to the war) were considered cheap labor force in Poland – just as Molovians were considered cheap labor force in Ukraine?
My wife is from Wroclaw. Her mother lives there, very old (86). She has been back several times in the last couple of years. Last trip she returned in Jan of this year. For at least four years, the Ukrainians have been flooding Poland. They are everywhere now. Seeking health care workers for my MIL, my wife was told “only Ukrainian workers possible”. No joke, and that is who my wife has been paying, Ukrainians, to take care of her mother while she is not there. So yeah, seems that is the case.
Partially yes as most of them are unqualified labour that is hired in construction yards, logistics and so on but of course there are people that came to Poland and are well qualified vide IT sector, engineers in different sectors and so on.
As I can see many people are from East of Ukraine that came here seeking better life and indeed they have much better prospects in Poland than in Ukraine, especially now
Sorry to ask something so trivial, but the opening musical bars are driving me nuts – I know them, seen them danced to, and cant remember what they are. Can you please put me out of my misery?? 🙂 🙂
Montague and Capulet by Prokofiev
https://youtu.be/8VY-A7GVLyQ
Sergei Prokofiev Romeo and Juliet Op 64/Act 1 ‘Dance of the Knights’
Thank you agentsonia, also J Brown. Much appreciated. Now I can rest, itch scratched :-))
Much has been said about the vast ammunition and equipment that Ukraine needs to replace frequently. Little has been said about the number of missiles and artillery shells spent on residential areas and non-combatants. Is there some strategy in place or is it simply some sort of juvenile inefficiency?
If your analysis is correct, pro-Ukraine boosterism in Western media could be tainted with the allegation that its purpose is not just to garner sympathy.
MSMs appear to be constructing a framework that justifies shoveling money, equipment and other resources into Ukraine which would only make sense if the Ukrainians were at the verge of winning. The thoroughness and ruthlessness of the propaganda is astounding.
I’m not saying it won’t happen, but Polish intervention in Ukraine opens a big can of worms for Poland. The poles are not exactly nuts about nazis and Banderites, despite their reactionary leadership, and if Poland ingests a large helping of them, I foresee some instability for the Polish regime. This is entirely aside from the question of what the Russians do in response. I have a feeling there are already negotiations underway by which Poland will move in, with Russia’s blessing, and in return stop being a conduit for NATO weaponry. The timing of the event would be crucial- Poland needs to paint it to the west as the last ditch effort to save Ukrainians, so I don’t see it happening before the destruction of Uke forces in the Donbass, or east of the Dnieper. In any case, I don’t believe the Russians will stop the war until they control Mikalaev and Odessa and have a land bridge to Transnistria. Is Poland rich enough to rebuild western Ukraine? I think they will want to confine their territorial ambitions to Galicia.
Maybe if Poland enters Ukraine the rest of Europe will be dragged in to this nightmare. Then the europeans will realize what kind of snakes they allowed to seize their continent. Why should Ukraine be the only country to suffer? Bring it on Kaczynski…
Not sure that Russia would allow a Polish invasion to reclaim Galicia. Seems counter intuitive as this would leave a NATO country even closer to the Russian border, one armed with nuclear weapons in short order. Same if Finland joins NATO.
I thought that the forces withdrawal from Kharkiv was part of a plan too drain fuel from the Ukrainian army when i first saw it in the news. It seemed that Russia has the logistical advantage in that part, but what you said makes sense to me. Thx for the work you do. greetings from Denmark
Jacob, what would be great is a general map of the Ukraine, and show us where (more or less) exactly the bulk of those Ukrainian troops are located in the Donbas.
Akula… that name… I realised it’s a submarine class. Very appropriate.
This is the map I am using, found it yesterday.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-may-belarus-to-deploy-special-operation-forces-on-the
If the moderator approves it.
Loose lips sink ships… and vice versa.
Found your site via the Duran guys. Great format that you have. The way you explained the “slowness” of the Russian advance made a whole lot of sense. Living in a 2×4 and cardboard house one would never think of one’s home as a “fort”. I knew there must be a reason why the Russians were moving slowly and your explanation I think is perfect. The only concepts I have of war and battles are from Hollywood and I know the real world doesn’t work that way. Anyway, Thank You for all your work
LOL, thanks. I live in a paper-and-chewing-gum, American house also.
I think the current conflict is much bigger than only Ukraine. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union the Neocons have pursued their fantasy of PNAC. But now 30 years on, I suspect that they will be expelled from the eastern hemisphere completely.
The pope was right; NATO was foolish to bark at Putin‘s door. Ukraine is in Russia’s backyard. The United States is on the other side of the world, and no longer has the financial ability to project military power across the globe. I expect that flareups both in the Persian Gulf and the Taiwan Strait will soon reveal the new balance of power in the world. Poland will only be able to prosper if it can embrace this new calculus.
I think Russia maybe would allow Poland to take the west territory after Russia completes its objectives, but Russia needs something big in exchange. This possibility is really low.. If Polland invades Ucraine, Russia will be forced to attack Poland troops (And things will go really wrong for the world). Poland would use this territory to keep deliverying weapons to Ukraine and closer to the battle front. There is no negotiation between Polland and Russia. Polland is a declared enemy of Russia.
My concern is about Belarus. I´m not sure if it will accept Polland (Also its enemy) to takes this territory. and be sorrounded by Polland. Belarus started also big trainings in its west area. Remember Belarus and Russia still have interests in the Kaunas/Vilna region in Lithuania. So they can have geographical limits with Kaliningrad, and Poland is aware of this.
That’s what I saw in the map. Belarus is starting to move troops and equipment towards the Ukrainian border.
Combine that with RT headline “Russia to help Belarus build missiles”… some lines are going to start being crossed pretty soon. Remember, Russia CANNOT win this war. It’s not even about territory or ressources, it’s about the $$$.
Uncle Sam will provoke WWIII before losing the $$$ hegemony.
This is exactly what those 800+ US military bases around the world are and have been for all along. Showdown time.
Thank you Jacob for your reports, now I have a question: what happened to the main russian force ? They retired from around Kiev, very little was left around Karkhov, battle in Dombass seems to be carried mostly by the milicias, the Chechens and Wagner group. Where are the Russians ? Maybe they are regrouping for a surprise attack ?
Great question!!! No one knows, other than Russia, USA, all other NATO countries, and the Ukraine. The Russian army forces that have been deployed around Izium and the north Donbass since early April are probably not much more than half of what Russia had pulled out from around Kiev and from northeast Ukraine at the end of March and beginning of April. It may be there is a large reserve to be rotated in to relieve tired units that have been fighting for some time.
Escalation at this point seems inevitable indeed it appears the US and NATO are at war with Russia now in everything but name and western blood. Bringing Poland into the conflict looks to be the next logical step toward that purpose. There are forces in the west that appear quite willing to bring on world war…either through ignorance, incompetence, or ideological motivations. Without some foundational paradigm shifting event that I can’t imagine, this will lead to all out war and god help us all.
Take a look at Belarus military activity. Getting interesting.
Great commentary. Glad to have found intelligent analysis.
If you have ever seen the Polish film “Hatred” about the relatlonship between Poles and Ukrainians from approximately after WW1 through WWII, the idea that there would be no border between Poland and Ukraine is as big a mistake as two peoples can get. I have never seen such violence portrayed as I did watching that film — and that is not even considering the complications made by the U.S. interference. There’s an expression: strong fences make good neighbors. Poland’s President seems unaware of this or of history. He may think he can handle this. He cannot and the damage done in the entire region will be enormous.
Hi Elena, how interesting that you mention this deep-seated hatred of western Ukrainians to Poles. I was no aware of it until I read that western Ukrainians do not like Germans and Russians, but who they really hate are Poles because historically these areas were dominated by Polish landlords who ruled over their Ukrainian serfs and did it in a very brutal way. There are accounts of Russian travellers in 19 c. who were shocked at this brutality. And this is reflected in Ukrainian folklore and seats deep in the national historical memory. Since I have heard of polish irredentist motifs, I have been wondering how Poles are going to square this circle
Jacob, thanks so much for setting some rules about commenting on your reports. The lack of restraint on other sites regarding the topics you mentioned in your guidelines makes many sites simply not worth visiting — or at least I just refuse to read the comments. Your rules are much appreciated.
Hi
Big tx again.
Thoughts & request of deeper details
* it seems to me that LPR/DPR forces are the main actors in Lugansk / Donesk regions. Russian (including Chechene) are in the South. Russia providing mostly “equipment/aero/anti aero support”. Am I wrong ?
That could also explain additionaly the time is taking (in complement to your description related the materials used to build the structures)
* Russia has not involved its latest revision equipment (except S400 / some Hypersonic) – Armatas & SU 34 no eared about … is it to come ?
FYI, main FR MSM medias are funded partially or entirely by the FR government, implies the narrative they spread all the time.
My last, a suggestion to “internationalize” you blog / I sent you an email on that. Helpfull as detox brain washing machines MSM 🙂
Take care of you.
82mm mortar will not go thru roof tiles,l it wil detonate at roof, on other hand 120mm will go thru and even go thru floor concrete. How i know, im from bosnia and i seen soviet style weaponry for 4 years. Its true hoises in easter europe and on balkans build strong. More floor you have more protestion you have