In this video, the Dreizin Report explains the general principles of breaking a static defensive line, from the perspective of the advancing Russian and Donetsk/Lugansk forces. However, we start with some comedy from Foreign Affairs magazine, which shows just how crazy the scene has gotten here in the USA. (Not mentioned in the video, it turns out the author of the piece in question is Anders Aslund, one of the architects of the misguided and catastrophic, economic “shock therapy” in Russia in the early-mid 1990s, which gave us the oligarchs among other problems.)
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Jacob,
All very good–just wish I had a way to contact you privately. (Yes, I am blind so might have missed it, but would appreciate if you’d point out an emial or other means.)
Thanks,
og
Thank you again for your explanation. It’s useful to hear how the tactics are described by the Russians. The problems they face appear to be similar to those encountered by the British army attacking German lines on the Western front 1916 to 1918.
Apart from the technology a major difference is that the Germans were able to mass reserves and mount ferocious counter-attacks immediately after an incursion.
Thanks Jacob,
The last few videos have been truly educational on how battle tactics really work.. Much appreciated…
Regarding the murder/suicide cases. I was aware of 2 families both of whom suffered the same fate. Both families seemed to have connections to Gazprom and both cases seemed to happen around when Germany seized Gazprom in Germany. If I remember correctly because it is some time ago now both the eldest daughters survived which I found interesting. Anyway it was some time ago now..
Regards
Jimmy
Thanks. Just about every wealthy person in Russia has some “connection” to Gazprom, LOL. It’s the largest employer outside of the government, and the main profit center. It would be as if Amazon, Walmart, and Facebook merged, here in the USA. Maybe the guy worked there, his wife worked there, son or daughter worked there, he was a Gazprom contractor, he took out a loan from their bank, whatever.
I’ve seen this that seems to show a succesful attack with a Javelin. Just for the record. https://twitter.com/REjercitos/status/1529793086422917120?s=20&t=QaixlQ1qeGRsKfWa3OtCuQ
yonotuniel. It is not very apparent what we are seeing in that clip, you see missiles fired but you can’t see what is hit. It could be soldiers in training in Poland. Sadly nearly everything the Ukrainians say on these matters later turns out to be false. It is very sad to see so many dead young men, their lives cut short for some possible bump in Brandon’s mid term poll numbers. People in Washington and London should be tried for war crimes for encouraging the Ukrainians when they have zero chance of winning.
Great stuff! Maybe, they could bring out some T-34s as well if they have many of them left. LOL Just for psychological warfare. purposes.
Sergei Protosenya and Vladislav Avayev. These were the Russians dead in similar circumstances and simultaneously.
My recollection is that both gentlemen were higher-up employees or managers of Gazprombank specifically.
It certainly did seem a bit weird.
No, Protosenya was (perhaps formerly) with Novatek, which I think is a private company, but in any case, is not Gazprom. Look, this whole thing is nonsense.
Thanks Jacob for sharing the information. The Ukrainian defensive line facing the Donbass region seem pretty formidable. Always wonder how the Russians deal with them.
Thanks for the analysis. I’m curious to know your take on the absence of the Armata tank in the Ukraine operation.
It would be great if you can discuss how the Russians take cities. I always wonder the proper way an army can storm a well defended city.
Thanks
Dear, Jacob. Again, thanks a million for your thoughtful and unbiased analysis of the situation.
At this point of time honest observers still are keeping focus on Donbas, and at the same time they recognize that the fate of Donbas is pretty much sealed – it will be taken by Russia.
Nevertheless, practically nobody touches upon the topic of “WHAT’S NEXT AFTER DONBAS?”
So, suppose Donbas is history, done deal, part of Russian sphere, out of sight out of mind. Dear Jacob, could you share your thoughts and intuition what strategically and tactically Russia might be doing AFTER Donbas, to conclude its stated and many times repeated military and political objectives (total demilitarization and de-nazification of the whole Ukraine, not just Donbas)?
Many thanks in advance
Sincerely
Phil
Let me take a stab at this.
First, Russia is not really fighting the nation of Ukraine. A Ukraine that acts in its own interests would never pick a fight with its giant neighbor in the first place. Ukraine behaves as an appendage of NATO, so Russia is fighting NATO, using Ukraine as a battleground.
Second, NATO is militarily much stronger than Russia in conventional warfare. Here of course I include the United States. Fortunately, in this case, Russia sets the rules of the game. The rules are as follows,
The West can send in our arms to Ukraine, individual volunteers can go fight in Ukraine, but NATO will not directly get involved. If we do, out come the nukes. Russia even threaten Poland with its long range missiles which could take out key politicians of Poland if they try something funny.
If the West send in military weapons that are game changers, Russia will use nukes.
The fighting will be done at a location of Russia’s choosing.
Third, NATO, fighting Russia through this proxy war, cannot be defeated through military means. Russia thought they defeated Ukraine in 2014, but with a dirt poor country and money from NATO, Ukraine sprang up like a phoenix from the ashes. Russia has two choices, the first is to fully occupy Ukraine. It is possible that they might do that, but the cost of such an occupation is quite high. When they take the Russian speaking regions, there were no opposition, but the story might be different if they take parts of the Western Ukraine that are fervently anti-Russian. Overtime, taking this part of Ukraine might lead to a weakening of Russia and NATO will continue to fight the proxy war inside Ukraine.
The other choice is one by which they fight this war leading to the breakup of NATO. To do this, they need to fight a war of long drawn out attrition. Once they finish with Donbass, they will take Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. this will even out the lines, then they will very slowly push west and north. There are several advantage to this type of fighting.
1. the Ukrainians will go a long distance to fight a Russian front that is organized and well supplied. They are backed by a population that supports them. Ukraine can send their million men across and they will still be defeated. After a long battle where in spite of all the help from NATO, Ukraine still faces the inevitable defeat. This hopelessness will educate the Ukrainians about their trust in an impotent NATO and the West. There is nothing like a slow defeat that causes soul searching. There will be a lot of descension inside Ukraine and the political class will face an uprising for bringing Ukraine to this state. I do not envy Zelensky if he were to remain in Ukraine at this time. Although it is very likely that he will be gone to the West by that point.
2. Russia can take the time to demolish much of the Ukrainian infrastructure(at least the part that they do not intend to take). This will lead to the deindustrialization of Ukraine. With no job prospects, the Ukrainians will leave Ukraine for the West as refugees. This will change the make up of Ukraine to a more pro-Russian population inside the area of Russian control and empty Ukraine of population in areas that they don’t want to control.
3. The long drawn out fight will cause a lot of economic hardship and perhaps the deindustrialization of Western Europe. At the beginning, there will be a united front, but over time, there will be a lot of descension inside Europe as reality sets in and the refugees come in. The deindustrialization, refugees and infighting will weaken Europe and NATO. We already saw how the oil for rubles thing went down. A few countries posture, but eventually buckle under.
4. Over time, the Eastern European nations, who jump the highest against Russia, will see that NATO is powerless to protect them. NATO has been given the chance to try everything to help Ukraine and failed. They will start to have second thoughts about opposing Russia knowing that NATO might not be able to back them. Russia can drive this point home once they are done with Ukraine. They can invade Estonia, a NATO member. Since the sanctions did not work this time around. there is not much the West can do if Russia invades Estonia. This will leave a big impression on countries like Poland. Once the Eastern European nations buckle, NATO is finished.
An interesting take. But Estonia? God forbid! What the hell is Russia going to do with Estonia?
The point about Estonia was not that Estonia was a great prize. The goal was to break NATO. If Russia were to take out Poland, NATO would certainly get involved militarily and there will be a lot of uncertainty about the outcome. If Russia were to take Estonia, it is a pretty small country and NATO cannot even fight Russia on this one. It is very hard to send a big army there. There is not a lot of strategic depth and the war would be over very quickly.
“Second, NATO is militarily much stronger than Russia in conventional warfare.”
I hear this time and again, that either NATO or the US alone is “much stronger”, but I’d submit that Russia is the pre-eminent military power on the Eurasian continent. every time Russia steals NATO’s or the USA’s lunch off its plate they do nothing. They did nothing with Georgia, with Crimea, then Syria, now Ukraine. In each case, I don’t think that it was nukes that stayed their hand, but that even in the case of Georgia, the brain trust at the top of NATO’s/USM’s pyramid were less than confident of NATO’s capability.
Granted that Georgia may not have been worth going to war over, but the West’s investments in the other 3 cases were significant. Indeed, in the present Ukraine case, RU is dismantling a decades long project that the ENTIRE Western power structure depends on for its continued dominance, perhaps even its existence. Both Borrell & Soros, whatever you think of them have publicly and emphatically said so. Borrell went so far as to state publicly that Russia’s SMO is not only is a direct attack on the post-WWII order, but that it can ONLY be answered militarily.
My point is that I agree with Borrell/Soros. The SMO is an existential threat to Western global power (Soros’ “civilization”) that can be answered only militarily, and that NATO is all but silent. Why? Existential is existential. The West’s economic and financial weapons have blown up in their faces. There is only military left. Yet, they sit.
Russia has made it clear when Russia would resort to nukes. Namely, in response to a nuclear attack, or to an overwhelming conventional attack sufficiently large/successful as to present an existential threat to Russia’s sovereignty/statehood. For the latter situation to arise, they would have to be losing a conventional war on Russian territory. No such threat exists, that red line is not even close to be crossed, ergo there is no threat to use nukes.
Analysts such as Andrei Martyanov say that for a wide variety of systemic reasons, NATO is unable to mount an existential threat to Russia conventionally. His analysis is backed by the the results of innumerable war games/simulations NATO held vs the USSR during the Cold War. NATO lost *every… single… time*. In the most recent war game that I’m aware of (last year?), Russia overran Poland in 5 days. No nukes involved. Either those simulations are worthless, or they’re indicative. If they’re indicative, NATO cannot defend Europe. That NATO’s brain trusts are acutely aware of that is why NATO has stood down.
Russia may be unable to project power globally, but its elites aren’t interested in that (at least presently). Nevertheless, in a conventional war anywhere on the Eurasian continent, my money would be on Russia. It would also be on Russia in a direct, intercontinental war between the US & Russia for the simple reason that Russia is 2.5X the size of the US, and has the defensive structures to protect its infrastructure and its population while the US has none at all. Its civil society, indeed its statehood is fragile. 50 well placed, high power bullets into the 50 critical nodes in the US power grid and the entire society would collapse into chaos (resembling Ukraine) within a month. In fact, if carefully coordinated with loads and timed, it could be done with around 35. It could be done tomorrow. What stays Russia’s hand? Well, aside from losing what could be a highly desirable 3rd leg to the world’s power structure, Russia worries that America’s elites are mad. If forced to stare into the abyss of a collapsing USA they are more than mad enough to take the Samson option and bring everything down.
Only an opinion, but I think the key word is denazification…
Think in terms of the Russians eradicating as best they can the risk of their ethnic brothers being left with the possibility of an Odessa Trades Union building fire redux (as one example of many), and draw a map accordingly, based on demographics. Kharkov and Odessa will be Russian, in one form or another. Kiev? Maybe, but as I understand, unlike the other two aforementioned, not critical.
And all those surviving nazis and their cleansing ideology? Stripped of power and influence, (and likely and a majority of the population gunning for their hides in certain regions, making insurgency unviable), they’ll be shunted west of the Dnieper, making them Poland’s (and by extention, the EU’s) problem. And, given their previous from WWII, the two should get on like a house on fire…
Analytical note by Reshetnikov Leonid Petrovich – Lieutenant General of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation (retired), Candidate of Historical Sciences, Associate Professor, Director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies.
——————————————————
I consider it extremely vile to blame our army for the lack of communication systems and not inform ordinary civilians that our troops on the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR operate with a three to five-fold enemy superiority in terms of manpower and the enemy has the full support of all reconnaissance and radio engineering power of NATO.
Any android, any iPhone is monitored continuously, any Facebook, WhatsApp, and other messengers continuously transmit information, all this is processed by the full power of artificial intelligence systems and forms a map for target designations in real-time. And even if the Russian army uses all encrypted communication channels – what to do with the population?
Over Romania and Poland, NATO AWACS aircraft with experienced crews are constantly hovering, and US spy satellites are constantly in orbit. Let me remind you that according to the budgets for our Roscosmos, we allocated $2.5 billion a year, the civil budget of NASA $25 billion, the civil budget of only SpaceX is equal to Roskosmos – and this is not counting tens of billions of dollars annually for the entire global control system feverishly deployed by the United States.
In 2-3 years, we will have an order of magnitude higher density of US reconnaissance and target designation. The United States sees not just our troops on the ground, they see our aircraft, and drones, study radar fields, estimate the time of Kalibr cruise missiles flight, and they constantly issue target designations to Ukrainian generals online from the operation control center in Poland. Is it all the merit of the former Ukrainian SSR?
This is where the accuracy of the Ukrainian artillery noted by our troops comes from, this is how the missile brigades of Tochka-U know exactly where and how to advance, exactly what time to launch, and how much time they have to get out of position. This is how the Ukrainian Nazis know where the gaps are in our columns. These are not their eyes and brains. These are the eyes and brains of NATO.
Ukronazis are just controlled zombies. And the Ukrainian army is a remotely controlled zombie organism. Of course, the use of hypersonic “Daggers” and supersonic “Onyxes” drastically reduced the ability to hide the most sensitive elements of this remotely controlled Nazi zombie organism.
I repeat, the owners of this remotely controlled Nazi zombie organism desperately need to find out what new EI and EW (electronic intelligence and electronic warfare) we have.
Therefore, for the future victories of our Russian army, it is vital to hide these new items. The fact that under these conditions our smaller number of troops cleared the sky, nullified the “Great Bayraktar” factor, and smashed the ukrowermacht is an outstanding hard work of our military and country.
This is not Georgia 2008, this is not hunting ISIS pickup trucks in Syria, no. There has never been such a war. Textbooks for the world’s military academies are being today written on the tactics and strategy of this war.
Once again, the Russian army is smashing the Nazi zombie organism, fully integrated with the eyes and brain of NATO. On the ground and in the sky, the Russian army is smashing Russian zombies, brainwashed over 30 years of propaganda. Under the conditions of a total machine of military-psychological terror, working for the West and growing Nazi zombies from Russian children.
But the Russians have outstanding resilience in battle. Look to the future and tell me where else the maniacs of the US and the EU can find such infantry. Are there any “best commandos in the world” left to fight after the Yavorovsky base was “Kalibrated”?
(c) Lieutenant General of the SVR, Reshetnikov L.P.
Hello. This has been going around on the Internet. There’s no original source for it in the Russian language, or at least, nothing cited by those passing it around. It’s likely to be made-up nonsense, or an amalgam of various commentators. You can see even in English that the writing style changes across paragraphs. Basically, crap.
Words like “ukronazis” and “zombies” in an analytical note by prominent scolar and diplomat? Highly doubtful.
Jacob, thanks for the explanation of the differences in some of the weapons and tactics. I wonder if you’ve heard about the new use of tanks in this war. I’ve learned about it some time ago in one of the Russian war journo’s interviews with a team of tank drivers in Mariupol. They described how – for the first time in military history – tanks are being used in urban warfare not for an attack but for after-the-battle discovery and elimination of sniper holes placed among civilian housing. The 3 tanks team that was interviewed explained how they work: the tank teams each comb their part of the street, meticulously checking them for hiding enemy, building by building. They start by sending one of the tanks forward and basically calling on fire to itself, while the others hide behind. As soon as snipers or artillery unit begin to fire at this ‘lone’ tank, the other two open fire and destroy enemy positions. It’s a painstaking and dangerous work, and the guys admitted that they’ve been shot back at numerous times, and have lost several of the tanks they’ve personally worked from. Yet, they claim that this is an effective way to ‘clean up’ the city. You spoke about bravery. You have to be a very courageous person to be able to do this kind of thing day in and day out.
I must mention your fine Russian, Sir! Hats off!
I even looked at the monitor a couple of times, and I watched closely when you spoke Russian. Beautiful pronunciation!
Now I understand why you understand so clearly the situation of war in Ukraine – you just know how to read, listen and understand Russian sources. Maybe even the оперсводки of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces?!… (about the Russian General Staff – JOKE!)))
Good relevant post. Thanks.
‘Hero tanker spoke about the special operation and died: “We will win, but it won’t be easy”’
https://www.mk.ru/politics/2022/05/24/tankistgeroy-rasskazal-o-specoperacii-i-pogib-pobedim-no-legko-ne-budet.html
I read this moving article, using a machine translation, where there are some obvious mistranslates like ‘shell shock’ for what sounds like ‘concussion’ even so it is sensitively written about the experiences of a brave and intelligent young tank officer who experienced some of what you are talking about in the early days of the war and has since sadly been killed. Quite a lot of interesting technical details as well, for example about the relative ineffectiveness of Javelins etc.
Incidentally the current war seems to resemble some episodes of the Spanish Civil War 1936-39. The Republicans thought that if they could hold out long enough the democracies would rescue them, so they fought the war always with one eye on publicity, often refusing to retreat when they should have done and attacking when they should not have. It cost them dear and the democracies never did come to their aid. They also had an extremist army within the army – the Communists. In the end it was these two factors that were key in destroying the morale of their soldiers, despite fighting bravely.
Incidentally the opposing Nationalists developed tactics to deal with the problem of the dangerous final approach after the artillery barrage has lifted, using close fighter air support – often German. As you say, not always available when you need it.
Here is a very good article about the failures 777-howitzer in Ukraine: “But it was not possible to solve the problem with the accuracy of shooting. Suddenly, it turned out that the American artillerymen used howitzers with the DFCS system to shoot at an enemy armed only with small arms. The positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass were actively “processed” by the Russian Army, equipped, among other things, not only with air defence, but also with electronic warfare systems that suppress any electronic systems at a distance of tens of kilometres. After switching on the electronic warfare system, the Canadian GDMS units stopped working, and the positions of the M777 howitzers were suddenly hit by artillery fire 25-30 minutes after deployment and loading.”
https://www.stalkerzone.org/true-detective-how-the-russian-army-hacked-secret-us-howitzers-in-ukraine/
Love the music. Please post these reports to other hosting services [Bitchute, Rumble etc.] Really do not like YouTube
Hello Jacob, greatings from shitland US colony Romania. Love your work. Keep it up.
The T62 story is another fantasy, the photo they use is from 2018 exercises in Buryatia. You can look for “Практические занятия по подготовке к боевому применению танков Т-62 с хранения в Бурятии” and find plenty articles with the photo used by ukrop propaganda
I need to know what the piece of music is that you open with … plus I love your reports
Excellent video. Highly informative in appreciating the slowness of the Russian advance in Donbass. Could speed up soon.
Picture with T-62 tank that is on railroad wagon is from 2018 .
I saw screenshot from Ukrainian media with that tank and then search for the image in image database which shows first appeared in 2018 and also used in some sites in 2019 so another not so well made Center for Information and Psychological Operations news
I’ve used “LOL” before even though something would only make me grin, but the following excerpt from the video actually made me Laugh Out Loud:
“… the hegemony is still there, but the reality is not. I mean, they’re JUST NUTS.”
Hah, thanks.