The up-to-16,000 figure (above) is up from my prior 8000-9000 figure. This reflects current estimates from Russian war correspondents on the ground.
Russian forces now physically control at least three kilometers (likely quite a bit more) of the main road running through Soledar into the Ukrainian army bastion at Lisichansk.
Krasnyi Liman is now fully under Russian control.
Large columns of Russian hardware were seen passing north through (or near) Lugansk, evidently to seal the deal around Severodonetsk-Lisichansk.
At least one video per day is coming out of Ukrainian units (mostly, of the Territorial Defense militia) justifying their retreat and/or promising to no longer fight under the given awful conditions (no heavy weapons, no clear guidance or direction, no medical support, etc. etc.) The cannon-fodder is getting restless.
(It appears likely that various fools in the Kiev area have hogged all those generously-donated NATO antitank weapons, as those things clearly are not being supplied to Territorial Defense battalions deployed to the east. This is what happens when you just hand the junk out with no controls.
Saint Zelensky has admitted to casualties of as high as 100 dead per day. (The truth usually comes out, one way or another.)
And, lastly… I was fact checked by a viewer on my YouTube channel. My “north Lugansk bulge” is really more like west-central Lugansk. I had called it “north” because it’s north (northwest) of Lugansk city.
I was told by another viewer that I must have Aspergers (high functional autism) due to my attention to detail and (what this person sees as) my lack of social/emotional skills. Amazingly, the person leaving this comment was not my wife.
Comments Policy
Thanks for commenting! Comments and any associated weblinks or other references must be directly relevant and tangential to my published material (not just to other comments.) THIS IS NOT A DEBATE PLATFORM TO DISCUSS HISTORICAL QUESTIONS. Please, no unrelated musings (e.g., about Putin’s family values, how Hitler could have won at Dunkirk or Normandy, etc.), no trolling/baiting, no calling for the destruction or dissolution of the USA or its government, no calling for violence against U.S. Government officials, no ranting about Jews (or Joos, Jooz, Jooze, Juice, Juize, Jewz, Jewze, J-Dogs, J-Dogz, J-Dawgz, J’s, Anglo-American Zionists, Zionist Occupation Government, ZOG, IsraHell, “those of whom we cannot speak”, the chosen, the tribe, the thirteenth tribe, the Khazarians, Khazarian mafia, etc. etc.), and no arguing with other commenters. Please share your concise, relevant, coherent, organized thoughts, and come back for my next post. Thanks again!
Heartless? That’s just too damn funny. Keep it up.
Keep telling it like it is, Jacob, we have come to value and respect your work.
If Driezin has Asperger’s, what’s the point in telling him about it?
Lol. Good point.
I’ve got Asperger’s – I don’t think Jacob has it at all.
Keep on rolling Jacob (with your ‘bad Asberger self’)! Wives are a blessing, aren’t they? And you are a blessing also.
Thank you!!!
Apparently Russians are shooting leaflets out of cannons, leaflets that tell Ukrainian soldiers exactly what to do and what to say when they surrender. This could be why all those videos of Ukies surrendering look and feel the same, they are literally following what the Russian leaflet instructions say.
Check it out – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkEbgImWitQ&t=88s
I don’t reckon you have time to have Aspergers Jacob with what is going on in your life … a fulltime job, a wife and young family and then the most amazing Ukraine analysis. You are a true inspiration unlike the wannabe psychologist nitpicker sitting in his basement who should have listened to Bambi’s mother …. if you can’t say something nice, don’t say nothin’ at all
Lol thanks.
Jacob, I always look forward to your highly informative and intelligent posts and videos. You are doing great, and your youtube following is growing exponentially. Part of the greater exposure is the downside of having mean-spirited people commenting. That says something about them, not about you.
Thanks.
Well I have been called a fascist a communist and a tranny so I reckon you got off lightly! Cheers!
Hello “Rain Man” do you think it may be that Kiev is hogging not just military equipment but all resources. After the strikes on the refineries fuel is scarce and needed for the imminent offensive we keep hearing about. If these troops are to escape west they will have to do it themselves. On the question of resources who do you think will provide the uranium fuel rods needed for the power stations,. Under the trilateral agreement, the one where Clinton convinced Ukraine to swap weapons grade enriched uranium for uranium fuel rods with Russia , it was Russia that supplied them .So no gas, no refined oil and no fuel rods, Ukraine are in big trouble they think the US has its back when in real terms the US has barely dipped its toe in this conflict.
Rain man, hahaha nice. Sorry, I don’t have answers to your questions.
And by “hogging” could you mean also: selling them on to some other war-zone?
Good job Jacob, appreciate your work.
Only in this day and age would someone say “Your smart, you must be retarded.” What a world.
(No I’m not poking fun at anyone with a mental disability, more just trying to prove a point about the ignorance of people like that individual commenter.)
And now I look retarded for putting your in stead of you’re, I apologize.
And now instead somehow got separated to in and stead.
“Amazingly, the person leaving this comment was not my wife.” Yes, that would be telling.
Sounds like someone who is jealous of your very especial skills. I worked with many engineers with similar and in several cases they save our rump at the end of the day. So take this persons comments as a compliment. I personally appreciate your very detail, honest evaluation and sometimes with some good humor.
Like many said many times THANK YOU! no BS EVAL. If I wante d that I would listen to S.R.
Well Jacob I like a person like you with the facts and it save my Rump several times in the past having full knowledge of the problem. We all appreciate your thorough analysis and Humor. If I wanted BS we could all turn the nightly news or S.R. eval. THANK YOU!
If possible post a map sometimes even though I been to Ukraine several time it make it easy to view. Good Job!
Jacob, you’ve become my go-to analyst for war news. You are very much appreciated for your knowledgeable and I think unbiased analysis. One question – somehow I got the impression that you are an employee of the federal government. How can that possibly be true, given your failure to spout the required propaganda?
Well there’s my day job and there’s the rest of my life 🙂
Great wife joke Dude.
What are your thoughts on how the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) would affect the battle if Ukraine landed a few hundred of those from Uncle Sam? They may pocket those for their big counter offense plans. Game changer? Or just more expensive targets?
Thanks. A few hundred? With trained crews? And unlimited ammo? It’s all hypothetical (I’m not sure Uncle Sam even has that many available) and very unlikely, but it would turn the Russian tide, yes.
Let me make sure I understand you. You are saying that IF that hypothetical turned into a reality on the ground and the Ukrainians were able to field a couple hundred (apparently Sam has around 2000 total), then that WOULD turn back the Russians? Really??
Sure, maybe. But it’s like what if King Kong teamed up with the X Men to fight Lex Luthor.
Uncle Schmuel seems to have bought 415 of them.
Archive:
https://web.archive.org/web/20200707214744/http://www.deagel.com/Artillery-Systems/M142-HIMARS_a000521001.aspx
Thanks for the update Jacob. I look forward to your reports. I always wonder why it is that the Kiev regime needlessly sacrifice their own soldiers. It seems one reason might be that they just want to prop this up as long as possible so they can keep on stealing money Washington send to Ukraine.
I can’t speak to your Autism diagnosis, but I am competent to diagnose your analysis as extremely based.
You look like Kevin the Apptrepreneur who’s also been accused of Aspy qualities. Just saying…
https://www.youtube.com/c/TheApptrepreneur/videos
“Amazingly, the person leaving this comment was not my wife”. rotflmao. Outstanding….And thank you for the quality of your work…from another who suffers of this (seemingly odd to many) capacity for “attention to detail” twined with “deficiencies in social/emotional learning”. There was a time when we were called “stoics”, or “professional”, or (God forbid) “masculine”…now we’re “autistic”. Go figure. Just another symptom of why we may just lose should we ever engage in a useless (and in many ways: fratricidal) war with Russia. Thank you again; going to look at how to support your work…you said you weren’t monetized? Please advise.
Hi Jacob,
How much if any value do you put in Peter Zalmayev’s comment (on CGTN’s The Heat) that the Kiev regime is poised for a August offensive? I’ve heard this from some other pro-Kiev regime proponents as well.
Zalmayev is a Kiev based NGOer. I can see the benefit some have to see a prolonged armed Russia-Ukraine conflict. The issue is how practical is this option for Ukriane?
Thanks. Great blog and awesome videos that make insightful points while managing to be entertaining at the same time.
I do wonder how the likely impending defeat and prisoner haul will be spun by the western side this time. “Evacuation” feels a bit tired. Guess part of the $40bn funds the PR consultants who must be working overtime on that.
Fascinating too that your videos are clearly being followed now by qualified psychologists who can diagnose conditions without ever meeting the person concerned.
It’s telemedicine! Hahaha.
Interesting:
“There is no detailed data on the combat deployment of the “Peresvet” complexes during the special military operation in Ukraine, however, in early March, Wired reported that American satellites were “experiencing difficulties” in working when flying over the border areas of Russia and Ukraine. According to Wired, the intelligence department of the US Department of Defence could not get any pictures of the desired area at all before the start of hostilities, and the advanced units of Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine were noticed from space only a few hours after the start of “Operation Z”. Neither civilian analysts nor representatives of the Pentagon specify why this happened.” https://www.stalkerzone.org/laser-grinding-of-spacex-why-the-us-is-alarmed-by-the-abrupt-failure-of-military-satellites-over-ukraine/
“It appears likely that various fools in the Kiev area have hogged all those generously-donated NATO antitank weapons, as those things clearly are not being supplied to Territorial Defense battalions deployed to the east.”
Nah, which should they keep these antitank weapons in Kiev? I appears likely these antitank weapons were sold to anyone interested or destroyed on the way to the front.
Armoured police cars in coutntries like Sweden, Germany or France might soon be too lightly armoured to protect anyone inside
LOL!!!
Keep up the great work Jacob.
Always love listening to what you have to say.
You are the “Rain Man”. But, I do have to have Alexander to help my little brain understand it all.
Asperger’s, ffs. Clueless. Not that you seem like the type that would but don’t go changing your delivery style because of dopey comments. The wry sense of good humour is a close second to the delivery of lots of good info in terms of what makes this blog one of the best imo.
It has always puzzled me why so many people use strangers they read, will never meet or know, from the internet to claim relationships with and feel threatened then by others as if they were personally being spoken to so must respond accordingly.
They dislike what you are saying, so must turn you into some kind of monster to justify those feelings they shouldn’t have to begin with.
And nothing but confirmation of their beliefs will satisfy them….
it never ends…
Highly educational and fascinating to boot. Love your sense of humour too (the comment NOT being from your wife – LOL).
gotta feel for the Ukrainian troops being sent to certain death by a comedian acting the part of a cocaine sniffing president who will ‘never surrender territory’ ( eh??, it’s already a done deal clown)…being fair, who is being told to send the Ukrainian men to commit suicide for the fatherland by neocon NATO expansionists, a geriatric
hasbeen grifter eating as much icecream as his handlers will allow, along with a delusional upperclass public school
buffoon and his hand picked team of bloodthirsty advisers who would rather see their own people starving, broke and eating grass than admit the FUBAR they are personally instrumental in creating or accept accept the reality that the Bear has seriously turned them over on this woke attempt at social ‘deleting’ of an entire continent/ nation Russia simply cannot be ordered around by nwo global reset dwarf elite dictators who apparently see WW3 as the best way to build back better if they don’t get the toys they demand for Christmas, or ‘the holiday season’ as they call it since the mention of Christ really really really upsets them… i wonder why? Strangely it doesn’t at all bother the ex communist ex soviet Russian politicians ….. an upside down world this NWO
I enjoyed reading your comment – you nailed it! I am going to keep it and use it. :D. Thank you
Well said! So few people in the West see Zelensky and his posse as the deranged degenerates that they are. All the accolades of the Western globohomo cabal and their propaganda machine have surely made these people even less mentally stable than they were to begin with. I read the other day that some within the Ukrainian leadership have said that there should be no negotiation with Russia until all territory – including Crimea – is retaken. They really are bat-shit crazy!
When will the Ukrainians realize that they are being used and abused by the Zelensky leadership and realize – to paraphrase Bernard Lewis – that the West is ultimately harmless as an enemy but treacherous as a friend.
Jacob, I’m new to your site (but it has risen to #1-to-look-at as soon as I see there’s another article posted there). I have a question: You frequently use Russian military terms with what appears to my (untrained) ears great facility. Along with all your other abilities, are you also fluent in Russian? I believe it must be the case since you seem to understand documents concerning Ukraine that totally escape the notice of “experts” who daily torture American television viewers with their (mistaken) notions of what is afoot on the battlefield.
this is the question I always wanted to ask Jacob – he pronounces Russian words, whole phrases, difficult geographic names with absolutely no, NONE, accent – like a native Russian. Each time he speaks Russian I freeze, because I have never experienced anything like this. One would always trace at least a hint of an accent when Americans speak Russian. Not with Jacob
Russia is by far the world’s largest field artillery army possessing the most artillery weapon systems including currently the world’s most powerful artillery gun the 2S7M Malka and since the Donbas is a battle of artillery,its likely Moscow gets the upper hand here.Seems the strategy here is a slow,scaled down (slow but methodical grinding down of Ukrainian forces) version of Soviet Deep Battle Operations that proved so devastating to the Germans in World War 2
The line about your wife was priceless
Looks like mainstream media is finally catching up with you and changing their tune: https://www.zerohedge.com/military/wapo-stunning-first-admits-catastrophic-conditions-collapsing-morale-ukraine-forces-front
You’re part of a very small group (and you’re from the US so even smaller) that were correct from the start and didn’t change your story half-way through.
btw, my favorite line of yours was the “Zulu” clip. Still get a chuckle out of that…
Lol on the wife comment, nothing wrong with your sense of humor however 😆
it never would have occurred to me you had a “lack of social/emotional skills”! sounds like someone is so in awe of your insight/analysis they assigned some mental disorder as an explanation for it. weird indeed!
There are numerous stories of Ukraine selling the weaponry they have received from the West. Is it possible to present an analysis of the posting of weapons on Ukrainian Craigslist or whatever other sales platforms can be used?
H
Jacob – thank you for concise explanations and updates !!
A question – recently I watched truly terrifying artillery bombardments. Are these thermal-petroleum bombs effective and used against Ukrainian line positions?
And — just how artillery shots can be that precise? All ammo shells have same driving explosives — how one can be so precise where it will land. A complete mystery to me… ;-((
takes asperg syndrome to see through the bullshit . just listened to breakdown ol billions of dollars supporting ukrain from us, but a proportion of that support is for rare earths could this be reason nato invasion
I second that. So starting in on the subject as stated – without dancing girls or stand up routines – now equals “lacking social skills”…LOL!
Jacob, I find the comment on your alleged lack of social skills surprising. I see nothing of the kind. And I absolutely love your sense of humour. Your wife is a lucky woman
The truth normally comes out one way or another, Former military intel officer Frank Ledwidge said on DW news( pro Ukraine) says ” Huge Ukrainian losses” and ” Casualties are really very severe” you called it again, well done.
So… when can I convince you to go to Las Vegas and count some cards?
Jokes aside, the ruling class has indeed managed to make many of us totally emotionally incontinent when faced with opposing views, they have become so separated from real rational beings that they excuse behavior that no sane person could find excusable.
All this play out not too far from Cherkassy/Korsun(from 1944 fame), where the supremely more capable Notzees then didn´t fare well in that tactical operational encirclement(those that managed to break-out cross country had to leave everything except personal weapons in order to reach Wehrmacht lines and they had a relief force of Mechanized forces coming to meet them.
Yesterday, Alex Christoforou advised that, in response to Kissinger and others at the WEF telling Ukraine that it’s time to negotiate, a Zelensky rep (forgot the name) responded with a big ‘F*ck Kissinger and f*ck the WEF’. The West has a habit of funding and arming various groups, like Al Qaeda, the Taliban, the Azov, etc., and then, at some point, totally losing control of them. History is not only rhyming, but repeating apparently.
You are the Great One!
One question for you: from everything I’ve seen, the individuals who have real power in Europe – politicians of the key EU states and key members of the WEC – are war hawks, all for defeating Russian and removing Putin from power. Politicians make policy and my take is that Europe will go to war directly with Russia if Ukraine is defeated, nukes or no nukes. What is your take?
Hello. Europe can’t do anything, militarily, without the USA. It is a nonentity without Big Daddy.
And another set of missile blasts in Dnipro on the national guard. 45 casualties, of them 10 dead. I imagine a dozen of the wounded will be done for the war. Even staying out of Donbas is no guarantee.
Ha! But for real your analysis is refreshingly objective.
Another brilliant update Jacob,really look forward to these now daily updates
As someone of the aspie persuasion, I have to say that the last line of today’s post was the best laugh I’ve had in at least a decade, and perhaps the entirety of this century. She must be a keeper because you’re still alive. Good on ya.
Jacob, I only read you with respect to the Ukraine. I just wanted you to know how much your efforts are appreciated. From me, a great big thank you.
It may not be comon knowledge, but Odessa was a major hub for ilegal trade of heavy military weapons. Maybe some of the weapons the West are sending don’t even try to reach the frontline. Romania has a port not far from Odessa, and business must go on.
Asperger’s? Seems you have just been elevated to Elon Musk status. Take it while you can dude!
Thanks! Although, Musk claims to be bipolar. FWIW.
Hi, just signing up…
“I was told by another viewer that I must have Aspergers”
Take it as a complement. My son has many of the behavior patterns of Aspergers. With him what you see is what you get. There is not a perfunctory bone in his body. People come to this site to get the truth. That’s rare these days.
I heard that the Ukrainian arm forces have left Severodonetsk to Lysychansk. The Russians have not yet moved into the city.
Not your wife…you missed your true calling as a stand-up comedian!
Jacob,
Thank you very much for your comprehensive and detailed discussions of the situation on the ground in the Dombas. This presentations are highly informative and very much appreciated.
There is talk about Ukraine getting MLRS from the US. What would the impact be of them obtaining such weapons. Maybe you could say a few words about it in a blog post or video. It would be very interesting to get your thoughts on it.
The comments in the last two paragraphs of this post regarding the fact checking and the Asperger diagnosis were really funny! The last sentence in partcular! Quite relatable too! Yeah you need a thick skin to post on YouTube or best try not to read the comments.
Jacob, when you have a chance, I’d really love to see any assessment of the T62 issue. I know Russia has considerable numbers of T72s in their national inventories, so am puzzled why we’ve seen T62s and not T72s at least. What benefit is there to Russia to pull out their oldest stuff when there are (apparently) considerable numbers of more capable platforms from which to pull?
Pass no heed on the naysayers Jacob,
You will get that. A term that springs to mind is “Don’t feed the trolls”
I have come to depend on your analysis along with a few other channels of importance. I have no idea if you are suffering some form of illness. To me it seems highly unlikely. Keep up the good work man.
Regards
Jimmy
Great post as ever , but I’m slightly disappointed…Where is the “send more Javelins” line ? I’m thinking of making a t-shirt with those words on it (we can discuss intellectual property royalties later) .
Another accurate analysis of reality on the ground the thing I like about
about Jacob is he doesn’t allow any flies in the ointment…
Jacob,
Thank you very much for your comprehensive and detailed discussions of the situation on the ground in the Dombas. This presentations are highly informative and very much appreciated.
There is talk about Ukraine getting MLRS from the US. What would the impact be of them obtaining such weapons. Maybe you could say a few words about it in a blog post or video. It would be very interesting to get your thoughts on it.
The comments in the last two paragraphs of this post regarding the fact checking and the Asperger diagnosis were really funny! The last sentence in paritcular! Quite relatable too! Yeah you need a thick skin to post on YouTube.or try not to read the comments.
Jacob,
Thank you very much for your comprehensive and detailed discussions of the situation on the ground in the Dombas. All these presentations are highly informative and very much appreciated.
There is talk about Ukraine getting MLRS from the US. What would the impact be of them obtaining such weapons. Maybe you could say a few words about it in a blog post or video. It would be very interesting to get your thoughts on it.
The comments in the last two paragraphs of this post regarding the fact checking and the Asperger diagnosis were really funny! The last sentence in particular! Quite relatable too! Yeah you need a thick skin to post on YouTube or try not to read the comments.
Jacob, How do you respond to Gonzales Lira’s thoughts of really crazy stuff that will happen now that Ukraine and it’s supporters can clearly see the writing on the wall? What’s your take on Ukrainian General Valerie Zaluzhny
Jacob, I love your comments policy. I read it all the time and laugh, laugh, laugh. You are wonderful.
Haha thanks. It still cracks me up, as well.
This is great stuff, and it is not because of some sort of bias but because it is nothing but the plain truth, sadly mainstream media despite their elocuent speech and an over elaborated vocabulary in which many people would say “English please”, it is nothing more than fancy fresh perfumed amphibian shit tossed out to inspire those who want to live in their fantasy bubble, the make believes, or those who just want to confirm their bias, with little to non emotional intelligence who qfeel better off being part of the herd, MSM has become a threat to humanity basically, when they stopped being a power to control the power, now they are just The power’s favorite sock puppet, we are so lucky to have you here and I personally feel lucky to read you in here buddy!
Thanks!
Hopefully, it wasn’t your marriage counselor either. In war and YouTube, thick skin is a must! So glad Barnes and The Duran introduced me to you. Great analysis and educational for us ladies with zero military experience. You wicked dry sense of humor is appreciated by some of us.