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Sviatogorsk, last major milestone towards Russian southward advance on Slaviansk, abandoned by Ukrainian forces; **HUGE** sea change in last 24 hours in Ukrainian war outlook & propaganda—mood turns negative, resigned to more bad news, no more “rah-rah”; quasi-neocon Edward Luttwak throws in the towel, says Russia will win and Donbass should have a say in its own fate (…..sorry, it’s too late to “hand over” ONLY the Donbass.)
Posted in Your UN-fake News Source
Boris Johnson inadvertedly hit the nail on the head when he referred to Vladimir Putin as a “crocodile” a few weeks back…
Only in the context of Peter Pan, though. i.e. The US, UK and EU are re-enacting Captain Hook at the end of the plank, and that ticking clock below is getting increasingly louder.
I reckon they should send in the Ukrainian football team, they got beat by Wales in a World Cup decider the other night and are now available for war. They are physically fit and full of nationalist fervour and could help with morale. I’m harking back to an English football team kicking a ball towards the German lines in WW1. The British public would love it man! Proper Old School Propaganda, none of this Elensky Shit.
Ukraine actually beat themselves, one of their players accidentally headed the ball into their own net, an “own-goal”. A perfect analogy of this war. Ukraine, the US and the EU appear to have sanctioned themselves.
That’s just owngoalism on your part 😉
don’t forget a critical detail: the ucr rats lost due to an own goal. Telling, no ?
If the Ukraine had beaten Wales, ironically they would have probably turned up in Qatar without a country to represent.
lol well said
Oh God you nailed it.
except the only goal in the game was put in the Ukrainian net by the Ukrainians
Jacob, I first thought that ‘your UN-fake report’ was a United Nations’ fake report. Maybe ‘anti-fake’ would be better?
But – it’s a good report. And your yesterday’s forecast was so positive. I hope at least some people at the top know about your blog.
Phase 3…. what will it look like.
(Assuming phase 2 will be Donbass successfully liberated. )
There are unknown number of phases even for Russians. But apparently phase 3 would be full control of the Ukraine. There would be no cohesive force (army) whatsoever behind any political movement in the “404 country”. Maybe some dictatorship junta in cooperation with Russians. Ukraine sealed her own destiny. Like Kissinger said – “To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.”
What’s next? ” Take me to the river ” Go west young man, go west. GOTTA secure the “water.” ( Secure all logistical lifelines.) Then…onward, to Odesa, Subs, Lilbrs…talk to me…
Kalibrs…UA, desperation perspiration, doing the Run Forest Run…The Commander 19th Territorial Defense Battalion, ( UA ) yesterday, applied for Russian Federation Citizenship. KUZMENKO DMITRY VIKTOROVICH. Went over, to the other side, the winning side. Kherson resident last week lined up to receive Russian network simple cards for their cell phones.
This week, they showed up to fill out forms for zRussian Federation Citizenship and Russian passports. Uncle Vladimir is there to stay.
Less coffee!
what’s this T-62’s story sighted in the Kherson region?….are they used to shore up the defense line there, or are Russians running out of modern tanks? (I hope they don’t)….
According to other blog posts, the T-62’s have been brought in to help “keep” the newly liberated areas. They are not used in main front-line battles. Makes sense when you think about it…..why “waste” the newer tanks in guarding supply routes and controlling/policing already liberated areas? This frees up the newer technology tanks for the big front line battles.
that makes sense…Frank D2, thanks a lot for the quick response
The Austrian military Österreichs Bundesheer channel also make the point that Russian’s are using tanks more like assault guns which makes sense as there are only limited amounts of large armoured engagements. So that’s most likely what they will be used for. Also more modern equipment is also arriving there were videos of t-80’s and t-72’s being moved in and around the Donbass
The T-62s are probably being used more like mobile artillery than a traditional tank. Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces made a video about a week ago explaining:
https://youtu.be/RpC1kXhW2Lw
I also wonder why use old T-62s when they still have plenty T-72s in warehouses.
They are not for the frontline but for militia usage ti provide the soldiers at all the checkpoints with armored vehicles and machine gun support ect.
It´s for the Lugansk and Donetsk forces, easier for an untrained(on tanks) mechanic to keep running and it is used as a STUG III so disregard the MSM/404 media.
Well, according to Mr. A.Martyanov the T62’s are intended for the Luhansk and Donetsk militias who have soldiers that are already trained in the use and maintenance of this tank model, whereas the more modern ones, that are more complex and require more time consuming instruction are reserved for the regular Russian military which, of course, has the experienced specialists to operate these more sophisticated systems. Sounds plausible to me.
The Russians are using the old tanks as back up… for road blocks and behind the front lines duty.
The tanks are old…. But just like an older model family car… still quite capable of driving from A to B, just minus style and status.
Somebody said T-62 are for DPR and LPR fighters, ’cause newer tanks require special training.
they use the old t64 as self-propelled armored gun platform; performs pretty well in this role, since Ukr have almost no armor to oppose.
Thank you Jacob VERY much !!!
Those sneaky Russians, linking the range of weapons sent by the west to the territory required for their security. So sending weapons that have a range of say 80 miles means the Russians will take territory of 90 miles. If this was a game of poker even a novice would fold with Ukraine’s hand.
I agree. Interesting analysis. But, I think the Russians would be crazy not to take all of the land to the east of the Dnieper, and my guess is they will also drive towards Odessa and the western Ukraine border with Transnistria. Never the less, if the Zelensky government stays in power through all this, Russia will still have a hostile nation right on its border (which I would find unacceptable if I were the Russian government).
If you look at Russia’s fundamental security objectives, they need to eliminate the “Ukrainian” state. It’s completely illegitimate anyway, less legitimate than the Hitler regime, even, so there’s no argument possible that it needs to be preserved. I expect it to be replaced by a country that includes nothing east of the Dnieper, or any coastal access, and probably loses Dnipropetrovsk as well. Some of the current Ukrainian territory that is not ethnically Russian may be spun off to the neighbors, and whatever is left will get a new name with no connection to any ‘historical’ claims on anything outside its own very limited borders. Its geography will make it completely dependent on Russia. This is the only way to insure that ‘Ukraine’ will not be used again as a US/NATO puppet, since the west is ‘non agreement capable,’ as the Russians say.
Thanks for the report Jacob. I also heard that another possible direction was for the Russians to go from Ozerne to Siversk to cut off the Lysychansk. All along, we are seeing that the places taken by the Russians are calculated and strategic, where as places claimed by the Ukrainians defies even commonsense. The noose is tightening on the entire Donbass region.
I have a theory why this war is so concerning to the US and NATO. I believe that Russia did things “olde school” in more ways than one. Particularly eschewing GPS, the Russian army is honing basic soldiers skills like land nav, commo, and troop maneuvering. I will argue that only the Ukrainians had comparable skills to the Russian and their defeat will only further expose US/NATO deficiencies. Factor in the Chinese following doctrine similar to the Russians and the outlook for current military status of the US looks even bleaker.
Russia is fighting a war with purpose and economy. It is undeterred by the entire western world’s disapproval and economic sanctions. It appears to be achieving its goals in a business like manner. The cosmic cretins that run the West now know that in most regards the Russians are far more powerful than they ever imagined. There is nothing in the Green New Deal that can handle a problematic Russia. So the West is in trouble.
At 6am when I first saw this it looked very real!
Patrick Lancaster has an interesting video up of Russian towed artillery in deployment. I had assumed they used mainly tracked artillery. It illustrates the points you made in your video on the US M777 though. They had what looked to me like just two guns in one place to reduce effect of a counter battery hit and seemed in a mighty rush to set up the pieces, fire a few rounds and then leave! He also showed some of the close air defence that I guess was aimed as much at observation drones as anything else. My guess too is that Patrick was deliberately not able to follow one of their most up to date tracked artillery batteries.
It all looked quite basic but it no doubt works. I guess that compared to the west’s usual penchant for air strikes, this is a very cost effective way of delivering explosions on the enemy if you can get close enough.
Excellent point.
Since Russia has total air superiority, towed artillery can do the job in many cases, whereas on the Ukrainian side it likely could not.
In many news bits and discussions, no distinction is made between the Russian forces and the DPR/LPR forces. They are however quite different (especially in the equipment department), and my guess would be that the tracked artillery dominates the Russian forces, but not the DPR/LPR ones. Considering that (i) Patrick is based out of Donetsk, and that (ii) DPR/LPR forces seem to be much more open to journalists then the RF forces, I would guess that specific reportage was about the DPR, and hence towed, artillery.
That may well be the answer, although he very specifically said “Russian” and seems very specific on describing DPR/LPR forces as such when he is with them. I think the other comment might also be the answer too: the Russians may not have so much to fear from counter battery fire if they are careful in some situations and are simply smart in deploying the right kit for the job.
Phase three could spark a NATO escalation which could mean tactical air and missile strikes from aircraft, long range systems and air defense moved just inside Ukraine and nominally under Ukraine control. The NATO side has not made a sensible decision yet.
“…mood turns negative, resigned to more bad news, no more “rah-rah”…”
“…So, what now Herr Doctor Frankenstein?”
What happens to the Doctor’s creation after he’s experienced the life that the Doctor created for him? Will he ramble off into some frozen northern wilderness to die alone? Or, will he go from European village to town seeking revenge…
I hear about how the Ukrainians were producing targeted bio warfare weapons in their labs. I heard they had fissionable materials enough to make bombs. The targets could always be made to change.
Just because you make a someone to serve your purposes, ie, bleed Russia dry, does not mean your creature cannot develop a trajectory of its own.
They will do what Galicia does. No NATO, retaliate and burn the gas and oil pipes to NATO land.
1- Demilitarization
2- Denazification
Neither can be without going to Lvov … even to Atlantic.
Now no russian can be safe in without being russian
not Kiev ?
Where, when and even if the Russians can stop has become a difficult political issue. Ironically, if there were a lot of Russian sympathy across all of Ukraine, there’d hardly be any point in further fighting, and the Russians could make peace at any time. At the other extreme, even if there were only a few but virulent minority left in a rump state, NATO-trained death squads could continue their political reign of terror and geopolitical harrassment. If the end game develops into the latter, then I can’t see that the Russians will have any practical alternative except to go all the way to exterminate the last roach. In fact I wonder whether the “slow” pace of the war is intended to allow political winds in Ukraine to turn, by contrast with the nazi reign of terror, to the Russians’ favor. But I know nothing of what’s actually happening on the ground, especially west of Dnieper.
According to Wikipedia article “Beskydy Tunnel”:
“On the night of 1-2 June 2022, Russia targeted a section of the tunnel with at least two Kalibr cruise missiles to disrupt weapon and fuel supplies from the West to Ukraine during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The attack was confirmed by Lviv governor Anton Herashchenko.”
It would seem like an obvious gambit for Russia, however I have heard little to nothing about it in mainstream western media.
Because it is untrue, or because it is too damn true?
.
According to Wikipedia article “Beskydy Tunnel”:
“On the night of 1-2 June 2022, Russia targeted a section of the tunnel with at least two Kalibr cruise missiles to disrupt weapon and fuel supplies from the West to Ukraine during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The attack was confirmed by Lviv governor Anton Herashchenko.”
It would seem like an obvious gambit for Russia, however I have heard little to nothing about it in mainstream western media.
Because it is untrue, or because it is too damn true?
Yes it is true and was reported in several mainstream news outlets 7 days ago. Apparently the new updated tunnel could handle up to 60% of rail traffic per day between the EU and Ukraine and 46 trains per day. Well, it did.
As of today (June 10th), I still can’t link to any content from the headlines enunciated at the top of the page.
This one is literally just a headline.
Alrighty then. Thanks.