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Lisichansk is almost over
It’s funny that the Western (or at least, Anglo-American) press is still talking about Severodonetsk, when the Russian side has moved on and is about to finish taking Lisichansk. Listening only to “what Ukraine says”, even when they are right (not often), they are always at least 36 hours behind.
In my last piece, about 24 hours ago, I said it may be the Lisichansk saga will be over before next week. This looks more and more likely. Perhaps it is even an understatement.
The Ukraine’s Lisichansk garrison has largely abandoned the city; some thousands (those not killed or taken prisoner on the way) got out via civilian vehicles or on foot, leaving behind the usual piles of antitank weapons and small mountains of other munitions.
It is estimated that only a small fraction of the Ukrainian garrison remains at present.
The expectation among Russian commentators and war correspondents is for the Ukraine to settle on a new line of defense along the north-to-south, Seversk-Soledar-Bakhmut axis, to be reinforced with essentially ALL remaining reserves within the Ukrainian regular army structure.
Furthermore, it is expected that this new line would be “successful” in terms of holding Russian and Donetsk/Lugansk forces back for a month or more.
I’m not sure about that. Typically, when everyone agrees on a given outcome (assuming they’re not all knowingly reading from the same, deliberate disinformation memo), everyone is wrong.
What’s interesting is the Russian presence around and south of Izium has not much expanded in at least a month. There may be a large offensive force here, waiting for the order to make a big push southwest on Barvenkovo and establish a base of operations there to harass the resupply of Ukrainian forces in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk.
This is speculation, but certainly Russia has been shaping the battlefield and will continue to do so. There is ZERO chance that the Ukraine will be given any breathing room to establish an organized, fortified defense line anywhere east of Slaviansk.
It is in Russia’s interest to bring as many Ukrainian human and material resources as far eastward into the bulge as possible, just as happened with Severodonetsk, so that they can present a dense, relatively easy target…..
…..and then, the survivors run the other way in disarray (leaving most of their gear behind) once it appears that doom is imminent.
Most likely, we will see a Russian campaign of constant pressure leading to continuous piecemeal encirclements, disorganized and ineffective resistance, and ignominious Ukrainian retreats all the way west to Slaviansk-Kramatorsk. And then, who knows?
What’s telling is that Ukrainian soldiers are no longer willing to be surrounded. On this blog and in one or more YouTube videos, I explained this as the outcome of Mariupol.
After Mariupol, everyone understands that once a Ukrainian force is surrounded, no one is coming to bail them out—not other Ukrainian forces, not some goodwill delegation led by Macron or the Pope, nobody.
This is why Severodonetsk was taken, and now Lisichansk is being taken, without really intense “urban core” fighting, by numerically INFERIOR Russian/Lugansk forces (essentially just scouting units)…..
…..and the two towns are seeing not remotely the level of damage wrought on Rubezhnoe just a few miles to the north, let alone on Mariupol, Volnovakha, Popasnaya, etc.
Per reader demand…
A number of new readers and YouTube followers have asked, why do I feel so sure that the KO-RO-NA is coming back in a big way, in a much more deadly form?
That is, more deadly for the VAKK-SYNN-AY-TTED (of all ages—VAKKSED is VAKKSED, I don’t believe children will be spared, this time.)
My simple, logical deductions are based on existing HOE-LEE SY-ENSSE—I suggest nothing exotic. See for yourself, in this piece from a few weeks ago.
I know that inflation, and energy shortages, and the end of the debt supercycle, and all the rest are really bad…..
…..but I believe it will take a “factor X” to really tip the scales and bring everything down hard into primeval confusion and a “re-set”….. and I think it will be what I’m describing here.
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Some bad news today: Turkey gave in, signed a deal with Finland. Looks like Finland will be joining NATO this month. But the military situation in Ukraine is very good (for Russia), and the economic situation in EU and US might become so bad that maybe in a few years there won’t even be a NATO for Finland to bow down to.
If Turkey sold itself short with Finland and did not coordinate this decision with the Russian Federation they are going to pay a heavy price once Russia get’s done in Ukraine. The Turks are going to find themselves been kicked out of their enclave in Syria and an active and well armed Kurds guerrilla force inside Eastern Turkey fully funded and supported by Russia. With Assad’s Army at Turkey’s border supported by Russian Aviation. On the other hand it might have been all been coordinated with the Kremlin.
If the goal is to drain the EU / Nato, better to have them in than out.
I think Russia and Turkey will be fine. The Russians had to have known that Turkey had immense leverage over NATO and was going to get a sweet deal. Personally I feel that Sweden and Finland are the losers here. All Russia has to do is hit Finland’s power,water and telecom infrastructure and both countries will be gone. Destroying Finland would be an easy way to tie up NATO in Scandinavia at very low cost. In fact I think Stoltenberg should have pro kept all this agreement secret.
Even telegraphing this information to Russia was a horrible idea. Russia could hit Finland now before a vote on Finnish membership could even occur.
I fully agree with you. However, unless I am mistaken there is nothing in this world that stays secret very long. Finland is probably well penetrated in the government administration as well as it’s economic institutions by the Russian Federation Foreign Agents Spies as well as locals that support the Russian Federation.. Any secret attempt to join NATO would of seem sinister and trigger a rapid response from the Kremlin to avoid any hidden agenda in Finland’s move .I believe they will use every way to make Finland pay specially in the Economic sphere and also force them to spend a large amount on defense. Like I always say ” You Can’t Fix Stupid “
Finland joining NATO is what happens when the leader of your country is a 32 year old WOKE feminist imbecile with no knowledge of history!
Email now added to my address book. Very scary about K..ro.a. predictions though not at all surprising. I have family and friends who have obviously been affected with the 2 + 3 b..st..s but of course won’t admit it (one has terminal liver failure, has been told she can’t get a transplant but is still lining up for the next Ast..ze…a. The supermarket bombing by “Russia” was big news in Australia yesterday as is our Prime Minister giving a speech at the NATO summit. Great report again Jacob …. thank you.
When they clear the Lisichansk salient, it will free up 25 BTU’s. And Ukraine will be losing a decent number.
So it will be time to wrap this conflict up. I suppose you lose wars like Hemingway said you go broke. Slowly at first and then suddenly.
Russia should be in good shape to get an acceptable settlement.
Settlement?!? The only acceptable settlement now is unconditional surrender.
Unfortunately for Ukraine since all previous agreements have been ignore by Ukraine and the Guarantying powers the only option for the Russian Federation if it does not want to be involved in another War in Ukraine with an enemy armed with even more sophisticated weapons it must eliminate Ukraine as an independent entity. In essence as has been said unconditional surrender. An uncompromising purge of all Nationalist elements must take place and loyal local individuals and groups control the autonomous regions that should be created. All foreign dealing including foreign policy to be in the hands of the Russian Federation. It would also be a plus if Russia were to create an incentive for all these Nationalist elements were induced to emigrate to the EU and other western countries so they would have to deal with this very toxic element of Ukrainian society.
Russia will get everything it stated. the West will have to figure out how they can sell that acquiescence as a win!
I do not think Russia wants control over all of Ukraine. Why would it? Have the county is full of NAZIs who have no affinity for Russians. Why take on that problem. Better to simply divide Ukraine along lines that should have been initially when country was created.
But that will also mean that what is left of Ukraine will be mostly a bunch of farms in the west and not much else. the EU can have that basket case, the debt, the non-payment and the corruption. Going to be the EU’s Haiti – a permanent welfare state that needs billions sent so that millions can be stolen.
I’m really surprised the Ukrainians have abandoned Lysichansk. By all accounts, the town is on high ground bordering a river, perfect terrain for defensive purposes. If they can not stand and put up a proper fight in an advantageous position, then no number of munitions or personnel will help them. This now looks to me a quicker end to Ukraine than I originally thought.
Thanks for the invaluable news Jacob and please keep it flowing. Pat.
The AFU aren’t wanted there though. Nobody likes having their homes, hospitals, and schools set up to be glorified military targets.
Jacob I would like to ask you to predict the number of losses both sides might have suffered till now, what will be in the future ? What’s going to be the implications of those losses for the Russians in the near future ? I know it’s hard to say anything, but still.
Once the Donbass is wrapped up it’ll be on to Kharkov and Odessa / Transnistria. Given the meticulous approach and reluctance to over-commit resources to date by the Russians I’m guessing it’ll be done one at a time.
Superb
Nato says it’s now gonna assemble 300,000 troops and have arms dumps created for them? Where’s the ammo ? You gave it all to Ukraine for target practice! West can’t produce enough ammo to maintain a war , Russia can keep churning it out for ever .
Nato knows very well it can’t win a war against Russia it’s just postering and feeding the MIC . They live in some fantasy world and can’t accept that Russia won’t be broken or defeated . China’s been observing and taking lessons from Russia. You can bet your last dollar chinas MIC is working 24/7 and west outta take lessons from this war too, they arn’t capable of taking on a world power, only poorly equipped country’s with no air defence or modern equipment. Whole world can see west’s weakness now and won’t be intimidated anymore .
Thank Jacob for your analysis, on the spot as usual, as for the K..ro.a, is very hard for me to understand your line of thought, been cuban you may argue that every government lie, but unlike of what you may think the cuban government has made public every possible information available, doctors explaining the symptoms, virologist explaining the behavior of the thing, the guys who made the va..c.ne, explaining the method of work, I even know some of the guys who modeled the the docking process between proteins of the K..ro.a spikes and the “protectors of body” using Q mechanics. I ‘m familiar with this very real problem, around this you can formulate very different problems, but is very hard for me to denied the base problem.
The fall out from the Korona jabs is only beginning. https://tinyl.io/6XNo
The people wearing white coats explaining their med-eee-cul sie-ense jeen there-a-pee fake vak-seens to us are the same people who created the original bat vie-russ. They are EXACTLY like Dr Frankenstein. If you wouldn’t take Frankenstein’s advice why would you from Faw-chee?
Here in upstate SC (yes Lindsay’s stomping grounds) trust in government sy-ensse is quickly turning to distrust as constant reinfections are the norm among mass-media addicted lemmings. (Hair dressers are a great resource, BTW. She agrees that it was anti-sy-ensse voo-doo being pushed.) It’s been fascinating to hear of her friends who worshipped Fauci and dissed her position, and now she sees a rise in anger as reinfections are taking their toll on these young moms. (They are constantly sick.) The exact population that a certain party can’t afford to piss off.
As for spelling it’s probably the old rule of “I” before “E” except after “C” that’s at play. My name is pronounced Champagne but is spelled Champaign. Learned decades ago that to spell my name BEFORE I say it – otherwise the addition of an “I”, the inversion of the “G” and “N” and missing “E” results in mass confusion.
A silly? and out of topic question (about using of airpower) I’m afraid, but I’ll ask anyway: do modern armies no more execute “carpet bombing” missions like the US for example during WWII did? (I think of the nearly annihilation of the German “Panzer Lehr” division by the US carpet bombing mission during operation “Cobra” near St. Lo, Normandy, 1944…if yes, I imagine Russia could concentrate massive firepower above specific Ukrainian target areas and obliterate the forces there just using it’s airpower…
You are trying to make too much sense. And I would agree that carpet bombing fixed positions would devastate them. If this was an all out war to annihilate the enemy yes they would do it but there are factors here that I think preclude this. One: Russia wants the areas that it is attacking to be intact, civilians included, as they will inherit what is left. Not a lot so far it seems as far as infrastructure. Two: this is a “show war” in that everyone involved in creating it is working for the same people I think. Russia and Putin are not are friends fighting the global cabal even if we wish it was so. Zelenski and the Western governments are not your friends ether. All the countries involved are both replenishing and testing all their war toys at the expense of Ukraine and anyone else they can entice into it. When your governments are controlled by individuals that do not care about the sovereignty of the nations they represent, then they do things that blatantly do not make any sense.
“US will establish permanent for the US 5th Army Corps in Poland.”
HHMMmmmmm. The Army has a base in Paraguay right up cozy-like to Bolivia–you know, that Marxist paradise of 4,000.000 that is an existential threat to one and all–and that looks so far like Mox Nix.
Putting the 5th Corps permanently in Poland sure makes it a closer target . . . This seems to be a game of “Micro-aggressions to get Micro-nukes, graduating to Macro-nukes.
Your thoughts?
Good job Jacob,
I see the knife is going trough butter (not concrete). How many weeks till fall of Kramatorsk, Slavjansk? What is your opinion about NATO enlargment and situation in Syria, Iran? Suddenly quiet on Taiwanese front. Btw do You know Gonzalo Lira? I want your opinion about future of Europe (not bright I know), but I live here… So firstly he was saying, that maybe some European politicians gets back to their senses and estabilish ties with Russia again. Yesterday he said, there is no way that Russia will do trade with Europe again, ever (I don’t blame them and I fully understand their reasons). I’m related to metal industry and without Ukraine, Russian metals, coal, it’s over this September You know. So You can imagine how nervous people are.
Those crazy plans to bring all raw materials from elsewhere are just illusions (killer prices are in the way). For an example metals have different chemical composition from country to country. You have to change, proof and perfect whole production process, technology from scratch. It could take a year or two. Only then You have desired quality in castings… Do some special on geopolitics, global economy, cause these things aren’t in news and are super important. Industrial breakdown is knocking on the doors. Czech independent media are saying this for weeks trough mouths of business owners, economists because establishment media, government is ignoring them!
I saw on Chinese TV news, that they have invented technology how to make military unit invisible from satellite, is that true or possible? I think this would be another great section for You. Military news, new technology. Our crazy demilitarized Czech army wants to buy F-35. From rumours I heard it’s very complicated, fragile machine, and 30% of planes are grounded due to software difficulties…Last but not least. What’s gonna Russia do with all that weapons and ammunitions? Can they be “recycled” into something meaningful, or take it as source for raw materials? I’m curios how many thousand tons of Western, Ukraine equipment is in Russian hands. I presume they don’t need them for war. Maybe gift for Kurds, Syria, Lebanon?
There is no hope for Europe. Even US future is brighter.
European politicians cannot get back to their senses, any alternative to the US all out hegemony is unthinkable to them.
European masses still believe in the lies of the establishment and they are ready to sacrifice themselves for neoliberal deram.
About people getting the spelling of Dreizen wrong. German words spelled with ‘ei’ are pronounced like ‘eye’, as in Fahrenheit or the number 3, drei. It sounds like you (past generations?) have Anglicized (Americanized?) the pronunciation of your name when you pronounce it Drayzen.
You spelled Jacob’s last name incorrectly ;-))
LOL! Thanks for pointing that out Boris.
That’s my take too, as a German speaker. Someone along the line in Jacob‘s family decided that 13 was an unlucky number, I guess, so they removed the h in zehn and started to mispronounce the ei. Thanks for all the great coverage Jacob! I’m on board with it all.
Thanks for the update.
The Democrats are using every tactic and means available to “survive” the Fall elections, and the RO-NA second wave is their nuclear bomb. In theory, this outbreak (supported by a preplanned media campaign) will justify extreme measures, including enforced mail-in voting. As a result of the latter, the mules will be out in force again after midnight on November 8th depositing hundreds of thousands of phony ballots in key districts in which the local DA has been bought off. As bad as that is, the models predict death and serious infirmity rates that are two orders of magnitude above the 2020/21 initial outbreak. Nearly all of this increase will be due to degradation of natural immunity in the cohort referenced by our host. For those that desire to maximize their probability of survival, I recommend avoiding urban areas (literally move if necessary) and stock up on medications that have proved efficacious during the past few years. Don’t believe media reporting, believe what your neighbors are saying about actual personal experience.
Q: Is there a possibility the Ukrainian Army will win?
A: Nope, not even the slightest Lisichance
For those wanting more info on the coming health crisis I recommend following Geert Vanden Bossche. Here is a link to an interview that is very informative. https://thehighwire.com/videos/episode-266-geert-vanden-bossche-my-final-call/
Thanks but no thanks. This video is 2 hours, 44 minutes and 39 seconds long. I bet the message could have gotten through in ½ hour.
The interview with Geert Vanden Bossche actually starts at minute 51, so it isn’t the full 2 + hours. I watch all his videos because he warned the governments in Europe to not administer the j.a.b.s in the middle of a pandemic because it puts natural selection pressure on the v.i.r.u.s to mutate into a more virulent form — because the j.a.b.s. were never designed to prevent inphection or tranzmishun. The new data suggests that the worst is yet to come.
This is about the D.E.A.T.H. of 70% or more of the current population in most parts of Europe, NorthAmerica and probably over 90% of all Australians and New Zealanders. Are you really trying to tell me that such an event is not worth more than a half hour of your precious time? I am aware of this situation for at least 15 months now and I have to admit that I have enormous difficulty to wrap my head around the immense consequences and the awful spiritual impact this must have. Whenever I try to get near that topic, my brain seems to go on emergency shutdown, meaning it shifts to something else. I mean look at your city or the street you live in and picture two thirds of the people dying off during, I don’t know a period of one year. And the kicker is, this is not just some Stephen King novel or a movie. Just sayin’…
To Fred Gordon: Precisely. Geert Vanden Bossche only gets to talk AFTER there is a lot of needless chit chat by other people, including the moderator. Vanden Bossche made things quite clear in his open letter to WHO of 3/6/2021 and a follow-up interview. He said that “by VAKK-SYN-AY-TING everyone with a VAKK-SEEN that doesn’t prevent tran.s.mis.sion, we are destroying people’s IMM-YOON systems, and setting the stage for a global health disaster.”
To hjs: Actually, I wasn’t trying to tell you anything. But now I think I should. Way before Geert Vanden Bossche came on the scene, others spoke up fearlessly, such as Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, a microbiologist, who published his first book in 2020 “Corona . False Alarm?” We’ve had a long time to “wrap our heads around the immense consequences.. and spiritual impact.. etc.” as you call it. So instead of going on “emergency shutdown” it might be better to gratefully live each day to the fullest while you can.
Yes, it is difficult to imagine them leaving a city behind in which they have eight long years to fortify and forming a long line where the Russians can concentrate their fist in one location, punch through and surround and cut off the remainder of the line can be anything like the protection of the city.
So, you think the beer bug is coming back based on: “My simple, logical deductions are based on existing HOE-LEE SY-ENSSE”. Did you not notice that the BYO-WEPN was designed to KHILL off MILL-YUNZ and just sputtered out to a big nothing burger? Forget the LYHS out of CHY-NAH. That’s all propaganda. 100%. Don’t buy any of it. They’re even giving up on the propaganda because their latest attempt to panic the West with displays of massive LOHK DOWNZ just fizzled while costing them trillions. Nothing accomplished but a big hole shot in their own foot.
Our basic difference is you have vast respect for the HOE-LEE SY-ENSSE. I have none. Everything they claimed it would do the first time around turned out to be pure bullshit. Why do you think they’re suddenly so much smarter than they were last year?
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Neocon counter-argument. https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/why-us-nato-cant-let-russia-win/?mc_cid=3ccb55b8de&mc_eid=e30caa1fd0
Everythign in that article is stupid on so many levels, from title to picture of an Ukie with Javelin to OP’s name (SETH CROPSEY LOL) to “Russia was supposd to win in 100 hours”
I agree Jacob. Donbas is fast becoming an elephant graveyard for VSU, and the more men and materiel get sucked into that vortex, the faster the SMO will progress once Donbas is finally cleansed. ‘Winning’ does not necessarily mean making rapid territorial advances. Perhaps someone should tell that to the genius’ at the ISW.
On the one hand, I think it’s something of a Russian failure that the garrison has been allowed to escape. My guess is most of the important heavy equipment – Artillery, Rocket Launchers – got out a week ago.
On the other hand, the Russians may feel that limiting the damage to the city is worth the price of allowing the enemy formations to escape. They may feel confident that they can out flank the new line and force a second retreat – rinse, wash, repeat.
I would be interested in hearing other opinions about this.
Greetings, everyone. I watched Sokolov.Live yesterday. There was an interesting take on the NATO objective in Ukraine T this point: they know they can’t win militarily or economically at this point,so what they want at this point is to hurt UKRAINIANS as much as possible, so it would create animosity towards Russians .
Russian war correspondents are toxic celebrities of this war, many gloomy predictions turn out wrong
I’m glad I discovered your YT channel/blog. Resources like this keep people sane.
While the front line is moving forward, the rear back home is a weird place in terms of information.
After the Navoz “””extraction”””, we have high-ranking duma members saying that the Navoz combatants will never ever be exchanged and will all be tried. It’s not like there aren’t enough pows to do exchanges with.
Then it begins, the informational silence from the MoD and the government.
UA sources start posting news, where an alleged Navoz medic, Taira or whatever, is back on home soil after an exchange took place, pictures included. No information on who Russia got, no justifications or explanations.
The rumors went from a civilian chechen related to a friend of RK, all the way to some very important Russian soldiers/officers. Probably. Silence. Memory-holed.
Then, today, channels announce another exchange of 144 on 144. Obviously, the sources are from UA. Again.
It’s later confirmed by Pushilin, with pictures (apparently most UA pows are wounded), while the Russian side is, again, silent. That number includes 43 Navoz members from THAT steel plant, so I think you can imagine what the comments in those news channels are like right now.
I understand that some things can’t just be announced and it’s probably much more complicated, but finding out stuff like this from the other side while yours is just silent is a bit… demoralizing?
I believe one of the objectives was denahtseefeecation, though I could be wrong. It’s a clown world.
If anyonne believes NATO will rush to defendvHelsinki, let alone Vilnius, and put at risk London, Berlin, ot Paris, he has to have maggots in his brain. Remember how smuggly did the English and the French throw Polsnd and Czechoslovakia under the Naz panzers?
What do you make of the prisoner exchange? Is it a good move on the part of Russia?
Syria just recognized Lugansk and Donetsk. That solves the problem of executing Aidan Aslin. They can extradite him to Syria for war crimes.
What, did he fight for the Kurds? A real tourist, huh.
Yes he did, self confessed mercenary.
There is no doubt in my mind that the sequel to The Plague is coming. It’s not a question of belief. Real SY-EN-TISTS have been explaining things in great detail for quite some time now. Who to trust? People who get paid for saying what they’re told…. or people who put their careers on the line to speak the truth.
@Jacob – re the insane scamdemic narrative, I have been even more frustrated than most, because I grew up in a medical family, where both my parents were not just western trained doctors, but they also got into alternative / complementary / holistic / natural / preventative healthcare and medicine from at least as early as the late 1970s, and skipping the other dozens of things I could say regarding theirs and my own background, the scamdemic is actually even worse than most people realise, and far older too, as it’s not just these current narratives that are a fraud, it’s the entire notion of contagion itself << and this can be conclusively definitively and irrefutably proven by way of evolutionary biology and genetics … I do not however have a public platform and large audience where I can get the explanation out there and I'm yet to hear anyone correctly state the full scale and scope of the fraud
The full scale of the fraud is succinctly described by Dave Martin in an interview two days ago.
https://tinyl.io/6XZf
You gotta listen to this two hour interview between Brett Weinstein and Geert Vanden Bossche. It’s at times very technical but Brett does a good job in explaining what Geert is talking about. The vaccinated are really in trouble and not only because of secondary issues like blood clots and cancer. Geert is really troubled by what is coming and you can tell it in his eyes at the last minute or so. He corroborates what Jacob is saying but in a scientific way that only a virologist and scientist could do.
Sir, in one of your videos you characterized a number of “Rules-of-Thumb” everyone (Respected Geopolitical Analysts) use in looking at the world. For instance, “The dems are considered “The Crazy Party and the Repubs are the Dumb Party”; could you share how the CIA and DIA vs. NSA and State Dept. are viewed in shaping the drumbeat of action on the world stage. Thank you for all you do in helping us to see through the fog.
I am past 75 with Brain Decline. Can you put the real word in parentheses for me. Thank you.
It seems as though the AFU managed to withdraw most of their troops from Lyssytschansk. The REF and its allies couldn’t close the cauldron in time and capture them. So far, all the news point to Lyssytschansk having fallen to the RF and its allies but pretty much no prisoners taken. If that is true, it was quite a successful withdrawal by the AFU, don’t you think?
So far, I only saw one report where they talked about some 38 POW in Lyssytschansk. And these were locals that were pressed into service. The argument has alawys been: there are about 6000 troops in this stronghold. So the question is: what happened to them? If they all (or most of them) managed to escape to Siversk or Bakhmut then the AFU really managed a great maneuver. bringing back that many people through pathways that are under enemy fire is quite an achievement.
Russia/Lugansk advanced with numerically inferior forces. There was not enough manpower to really push hard enough, fast enough, to encircle the Ukrainian garrison before it could withdraw. At the same time, they did withdraw and they lost several thousand dead and wounded in this sector in the last week. Withdrawing, they travelled in civilian vehicles or on foot, in a fairly disorganized fashion, leaving behind almost all their military vehicles and heavy weaponry. Now, they are crowded into a smaller geography and still getting bombarded daily by Russia, with larger Russian forces ready to pounce. After which, there will be another chaotic withdrawal, and further abandonment of heavy weaponry…….