This post is NOT about the ruble, it is about the old “rules” falling apart, which will affect YOU.
The headline picture shows how the ruble did yesterday, Friday, July 22nd. It dropped a bit against the dollar, but not much. A few percent move in a day is not consequential for a “developing country” currency. In principle, it should have dropped as much as 15 percent. Why?
Early (local time) on Friday, Russia’s central bank cut its main rate by 1.5 percent to 8 percent. This is down from 12 percent before “the invasion.” The governing board of Russia’s central bank is trying to weaken the ruble; so far, they have been unsuccessful. They need it at around 70 to the dollar.
This is a discontinuity—The ruble should fall, but doesn’t. Uncle Sam doesn’t know what to do. All the old expectations about sanctioning a country, didn’t pan out.
Yes, there are still capital controls in Russia. But, the biggest capital controls are the ones ON Russia—the country is so sanctioned, rich people can’t convert and get their money out to the usual destinations. Even when it’s not illegal, U.S. and European banks don’t want to associate with Russians.
And yet, the ruble is still a free-floating currency, subject to supply and demand. And the demand is now linked firmly to the European natural gas market, first and foremost.
I wrote on this blog (may have mentioned in one of my early videos as well) that with “gas for rubles”, the ruble could strengthen from the 70’s to the 50’s per dollar, and that’s what happened, shortly after.
Literally no one, NOT ONE PERSON in the finance or energy-related or “alt” media, called it. Somehow, an unknown blogging putz named named Dreizin, at least let you know it could happen.
(I was also the only person anywhere on Earth, that I know of—I don’t know what is said in confession boxes, or on fishing trips with your friends, etc.—who said, firmly and unequivocally, before “the invasion”, that the USA couldn’t hope to win a sanctions war against Russia at the given stage of the commodities cycle.)
Now, Russia’s doing so well that it can keep lowering its interest rate, to a level that precedes “the invasion”, and the currency is still golden. Amazing.
There’s other strangeness afoot. The U.S. economy is clearly tanking, very likely in recession already. Per a press release from one of the econometrics heavyweights, S&P Global Inc., …..
…..the “Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 47.5 in July, down notably from 52.3 in June to signal a solid contraction in private sector output. The rate of decline was the sharpest since the initial stages of the pandemic in May 2020…”
Below 50 on this index is “contraction” territory. Typically, on any “50 is neutral / no change” index, anything below about 48.0 indicates a real, “for sure” downturn, not an “outlier” reading.
We’ve had many bad economic signs recently, and bad signs normally bring down the price of crude oil, sharply. However, Texas crude is still well into the $90’s per barrel. As a consequence of energy being much tighter in Europe, North Sea crude is well over $100 and Abu Dhabi is over $105.
As of now, there is a $10.70 gap between near-month futures contracts for Texas vs. Abu Dhabi. I haven’t been tracking crude oil prices closely for very long, but the large spread seems highly unusual.
Per the “rules”, oil should have come down much more, across the board. This is a discontinuity. It seems we are seeing a secular (in the sense of “long-term”) change in the energy markets. I don’t see another crash (or a renewed pann-de-mmyk) in the U.S., changing this at all—there will be NO relief.
The way things are going, everyone expects “the Fed” to back off and stop fighting inflation (per my videos, I also called this before it dawned on “mainstream analysts” in just the last month.)
Of course, the Fed will oblige because the Fed does NOT act independently, rather, at least since the 2000s and probably the 1990s or even since Chairman Volcker, perhaps to maintain its “credibility”, it ALWAYS does exactly what “the market” (the sum total of all gambler opinions) EXPECTS it do do.
(Keep in mind, this is not the U.S. Supreme Court. They don’t expect to die in their Fed Board chairs. Most of them have to, or want to, go on to other work, at least for ego if not money reasons. They have to go along with what the mob wants. If it leads to disaster, they can say, “who could have known?” After all, no one in the “mainstream” ever really blamed or held a grudge against Greenspan, who presided over the formation of the last housing bubble—he was only the enabler, fulfilling an order from politicians, the financial press, home buyers, and the investing public. Everyone figured he was a genius, and hey, the big boys got bailed out, and Bernanke reinflated everyone’s 401K’s eventually, so who cares?)
What this means is that inflation will just keep rising, even as we go into recession. This trend puts a floor under energy prices (and vice versa), no matter how poorly the economy does.
This is “stagflation.” America’s prior experience with stagflation lasted (on and off, more than on than off) for 8 or 9 years. Of course, debt (government, corporate, and household) was nothing like it is today.
During the last go-round, the USSR was, despite worsening economic inefficiency and a stagnating living standard, growing massively wealthier due to oil, gas, gold, etc. prices going through the roof.
This was the period during which the USSR began construction of a long-range navy to challenge that of the U.S., as well as its own space shuttle and strategic air “heavy lift” capability.
(It was also a time at which America’s perception of itself, and even much more so, America’s standing in the world, were both deep in the gutter.)
History rhymes! Sorry, we are NOT going back to cheap energy anytime soon. Such trends, once started, don’t turn on a dime.
Between radical monetary inflation since 2020; the sanctions wars on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, as well as the Democrats’ bizzare falling out with Saudi Arabia and the UAE; the Democrat regime’s crazy war on “fossil fuels”, and NO MAJOR OIL FIELDS having been brought “online” for many years….. the stage is set for high prices for many years.
This implies a power shift from the consuming and increasingly parasitic (ex Germany, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan) “golden billion”, to the resource-producing countries. (Of course, it’s more complicated because the last time this happened, China was not on the map, economically.)
The last time this happened, the USA was NOT deindustrialized. Today, the major U.S. exports (in addition to debt, and of course weapons) are, drumroll please…..
…..smartphone apps; preposterously marked-up iPhones all made in Asia; the Microsoft suite and licenses for Oracle, Adobe, and such; Hollywood movies and awful pop music; drug patent rights and various “brand equities” getting licensed out for global production…..
…..and LNG (ridiculously expensive and inefficient, a real “planet killer”) and raw foodstuffs, the latter increasingly relying on foreign inputs including fuel and fertilizer.
Mostly, the USA imports things it no longer makes and can’t do without, and exports bullsh*t. The USA has maintained (sort of) its living standard through (besides exporting its limitless debt) INTELLECTUAL RENTIER PARASITISM, and people have gotten used to the idea that “this is how things are, ought to be, and will be.”
Wrong, motherf*ckers! Welcome to the Discontinuity. If you’ve noticed, unlike many commenters on this site (not all, don’t get upset now), I do NOT engage in Russia/China messianism. I look at things objectively, which is why I’m so often right.
And I say that the bill is finally coming due. It will be felt, to one extent or another, by almost every U.S. citizen, other than the ultra-rich.
As I wrote before (with an eye to the dumb@$$e$ in Congress), if you call for the destruction of Carthage, first make sure it’s not YOU who is living in Carthage.
The Discontinuity Will Bring Megadeath
As I’ve written, I think Russia gets through the coming Pann-de-mmykk of the Vakk-synn-ay-tted much better than the U.S. and its hegemonic bloc…..
…..If for no other reason than the ko-rona already raged through Russia to such an extent—killing, officially and unofficially, about one million in a country of 146 million, or over twice the USA’s body count relative to population—that most Russians likely have strong natural immunity already…..
…..whether or not they got vakksed (not to mention, the Russian shawt seems to be less problematic, and very few Russians are booss-ttyng.)
As I’ve said many times, the USA will be on the floor sometime between now and early spring. I think it will be so bad, and will discredit the Feds and the national political establishment to such an extent…..
…..and will move the political balance so far away from big cities and the blue states (where the death toll will be much greater), and will break the currency with another “rescue” package on top of the last one that we never recovered from…..
…..that it will lead to a decentralization of political (and perhaps even monetary) authority away from Washington. (This is the only solution, otherwise the country will come apart.)
The same problems in Europe will bring down governments, lead to civil chaos, and essentially wreck U.S. hegemony over the continent, as the U.S. faces its own problems, and each European state looks to make a separate deal for Russian gas.
Certain trendy folks talk about some “Singularity” bullsh*t, like we’re going to leave our bodies and go live forever on Amazon Cloud Services, or, computers become as smart as people, or whatever “the singularity” is supposed to be (it depends who you talk to.) Uh, no.
How about, instead of the “Singularity”, we have the “Discontinuity”, where everything you think you know and expect about the world and your country and its economy and your prospects in it….. gets turned upside down, and for the worse.
Now, Regarding Depopulation…
I do think we’ll have “some” depopulation here in the USA. The first wave will be the Pann-dde-mmykk of the Vakk-synn-ay-ted, which will probably take out several million outright, and seriously debilitate many times that number. Then, I think there will be a second wave arising from hyperinflation and general disorder.
It will be similar to what Russia experienced after 1991. There will be a social semi-collapse and a retreat of the state. A lot of indigent old people, sick people, and (in the American version) motorized wheelchair “landwhale” types, will die…..
…..as the state won’t be there for them anymore, and/or their benefits checks won’t be worth anything, not to mention that the Pann-dde-mmykk will have largely collapsed the medical system.
(Fact is, this is a VAST “SURPLUS” POPULATION that the USA will, sadly, not be able to sustain under the scaled-down monetary system that will replace this bloated one, after all the inflation is over with, however long it takes to get there. The situation will be similar to Rome after the Vandal sack of 435AD, when the city remained “great” but, after doing so for up to 500 years, was no longer able to feed its large population of unemployed or underemployed plebeian drifter-grifters. Of course, as in nature, “getting rid” of any surplus population leads to a greater degree of SUSTAINABILITY. Yes, the “S” word. We’ll learn what it really means, soon enough. Welcome to Discontinuity.)
Many others will be murdered, or will kill or drink/drug themselves to death. Many “blue” city cores will be no-go zones, fit only for armed humanitarian convoys into “the projects” (if anyone cares to organize such)…..
…..a scene depicted in “The War in 2020” (1991) by the novelist Ralph Peters, who, incidentally, as a military intelligence officer, was a Russian language-trained, moderately Russophile realist…..
…..before losing his mind in support of the Iraq war, then becoming a very angry anti-Trumper and Russia-hating, neocon-aligned, TV talking head (quite a journey!) before falling off the map altogether since about 2019..
I think when some of the original “prophets” more or less give up on their predictions (or at least, lose their way), that’s when you know something’s going down.
Totally Random, But A Sign of the Times
Below is a short video of a captured, U.S.-built “Humvee”, sporting what seems to be a “homemade” protective enclosure on its turret, as well as flags of the Russian Federation and Chechen Republic.
Ridiculous Spelling Policy
As usual, if you wish to comment on the ko-rona aspect, please use more-or-less my usual idiotic spellings of key terms (e.g. ko-rona, vy-rus, vary-ants, vakk-seen, vakk-seenz, vakk-syn-ay-tted, vakk-syn-ay-shun, booss-tter shawt, imm-yoo-ni-ttee, pann-de-mmyk, etc.) or your comment will NOT be approved, as it will be a risk to the existence of this site on its given platform. Feel free to come up with your own moronic va-ree-ay-shunz. Thank you!
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Comments Policy
Comments and any associated weblinks or other references must be directly relevant and tangential to my published material (not just to other comments.) THIS IS NOT A DEBATE PLATFORM TO DISCUSS IRRELEVANT HISTORICAL QUESTIONS. Please, no unrelated musings (e.g., about Putin’s family values, how Hitler could have won at Dunkirk or Normandy, rapes committed in Berlin in 1945, etc.), no trolling/baiting, no calling for the destruction or dissolution of the USA or its government, no calling for violence against current or former elected or appointed officials of the U.S. Government, no nonconstructive or hateful ranting about Jews (or Swej, Joos, Jooz, Jooze, Juice, Juize, Jewz, Jewze, J-Dogs, J-Dogz, J-Dawgz, J’s, Chews, Choos, Chooz, Chooze, Zionists, Zio-Nazis, Anglo-American Zionists, Amerizionists, Zionist Occupation Government, ZOG, IsraHell, Bibi SatanYahoo, “those of whom we cannot speak”, “your friends whom we can’t talk about”, “a certain small ethnic group”, the chosen, the tribe, the chosen tribe, the thirteenth tribe, tribe of Judah, the Khazarians, Khazarian mafia, Rothschilds, Khazarian Rothschilds, JewTube, JooTube, JewMerica, JooMerica, etc., etc.), no communists, no canon law arguments among Catholics, and no being nasty to other commenters or to the sysop. Please share your ***CONCISE*** (2 smartphone screens of text is NOT concise), relevant, coherent, organized thoughts, and come back for my next post. Thanks!
thanks Drei for your heart warming prophecies. But I have a question. Will the psychos and satanists who have led so many sheeple down this primrose path, will they find some long overdo justice or will they just melt back into the woodwork and be marginalized like the Cheneys and Kissingers?Would enjoy seeing random executions and spontaneous public hangings of medical mahers and D.C. heathen.
Thanks but please see my comments policy.
Jacob…. Look carefully at the vid of the hummer and its Liz Truss sticking her head out of the turret.
Check out the excess mortality Western Europe is experiencing right now, it’s unprecedented for this time of year, as far as I can tell. The elderly are dying in droves, and yeah, they are ones who are the most vaccinated. Europe went through a heat wave, and that may have something to do with it, but some of the northern countries are getting the extra deaths as well.
Besides:
1. Europe had bad heat waves before, and they never had this effect
2. The frail population has been culled for the last 2 and a half years, so, if anything, there should be increased resilience to adverse weather than previously, not less
https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
There is more hope to your darker prediction. The rebalancing of currency make American labor for nearly all things economic again. American factories are fantastically more efficient than China, the ones that exist have had to be. Plus south of the border is an even bigger population ready to go back to factories and their currency has collapsed even more. Many of the Chinese factories were built under Western management so much of the know how is still domestic. Coming China sanctions and Xi being Mao 2.0 will bring a manufacturing rebirth back. This is already going on. Working class are being turned off from woke universities, but this makes them available for the trade schools that are already returning. Woke is burning itself out even in Hollywood. The food supply chain is the big worry. But this also means farming will also become more economic. Not after a few bad years but US exports a lot of food and wastes much more. Much of this exporting will stop, affecting the world outside more than inside US. Unknown factor is how much weather weapons are real and how much they are being pointed at US itself.
things are going to get more real than real, brings to mind Thomas Paine’s “If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my child may have peace; and this single reflection, well applied, is sufficient to awaken every man to duty.” Also, really really interesting the NYT just had an article on cannibalism… how do you like your landwhale cooked? great stuff.
And the saddest thing about this unraveling tragedy is that it is the result of choice’s, very bad choice’s, made by the so called ruling elite! It could have been so different if only our society was structured in a way in which sociopaths weren’t rewarded with positions of power and influence. These types of people should be on the bottom of the human ladder but alas, human nature is what it is.
That was a brilliant analysis of the situation and I pretty much came to the same conclusions. But I dare make another prognosis about the European future: If indeed people in the EU are hit by a severe famine with millions at the brink of death from starvation, I do not expect to see any help to come from the US.
Russia, on the other hand when it has the necessairy means available, will, without a doubt, try its best to relieve the German, the French, Italians, Austrians, etc. even the Polish from the worst. The Russian people will gladly support any such effort and ordinary folks will chip in generously to help their fellow Christian brothers and sisters in the hour of desperate need.
Hi Jacob please have a show with Brendon O’connell
Hi Dreizin,
I still do not agree with your view of a looming disaster ahead regarding ko-rona. A Pann-dde-mmykk of the Vakk-synn-ay-ted taking out several million is HIGHLY unlikely at this stage.
I an an expat living in Asia for several years now. I can tell you that there is a massive wave going on as I type this caused mostly by Ba4 and 5 vary-ants. However, we are not seeing a huge rise in hospitalizations. I know so many who have caught it in the past few weeks. They are sick for maybe a few days and get on after a week. According to local gov reports, this wave will likely flame out in a few weeks, just as other waves have. Then you may not see another deadly wave again, because so many have caught it they have developed some kind of immyoonittee (yes, people can catch it again, but people do develop immyoonittee and only a small % will catch again). There is no panic here, people don’t care anymore. I know the dems would love to see a new pann-de-mykk wave hit so they can create another lock-doun and have an excuse for the economic slowdown but I don’t think it’s going to happen. You would need real hospitalizations to go through the roof and panic to set in. If people start dying left and right that would happen, but it’s not happening here I can tell you that, not at all. We shall see shortly, we are coming up to the end of the year soon….
Hello. I am not talking about, don’t care about Ba4 and Ba5. I also have no idea what country you live in and what vakk-seen they use. It could be nothing whatsoever to do with what I’m writing about. You obviously just showed up here, you need to go back and read my previous pieces and watch my Rumble videos on this subject. The Pfye-zzer vakksed-and-booss-tted have not “developed some kind of immyoonitee.” Their only immyoonitee is to the vary-ant they were originally vakk-syn-ay-tedd for. Meanwhile, the vy-rus continues to myoo-tate away from that original vary-ant. This, I believe, is what Brandon mentioned when he slipped up and started yammering at a recent press conference about the coming of a “Second Pann-de-mykk.” They seem to acknowledge what’s coming.
Can confirm. Sh*tlib brother in law insisted, after the b00ster if you get Coronita it’s ‘just like getting the sniffles.’ Well I did and I got it anyway and I was coughing out a lung for a week. Hardly the sniffles.
What happened to Ralph Peters to turn him into such a rabid russophobe?
I dunno. Possibly… have you seen the censored scene from the extended / “director’s cut” edition of Lawrence of Arabia? I’m thinking perhaps something along those lines, hahaha.
Mostly agree. OIl is not a sure thing. Shale production is steadily increasing and there IS a new major field — Guyana. I expect oil to continue to drop. One caveat is when the SPR release is cut off after the 2022 election steal. But until then, oil is going lower.
Man would love to get you and Tom Luongo at the same table for an interview!
https://youtu.be/xtLL45vQEF0
Sorry, phone is pain, not sure if this attached.
Mr. Dreizin, the following link has some info that you may find interesting about response on various vacc0ze from published papers. https://youtu.be/xtLL45vQEF0
Back in 2011, George Soros said that the system collapsed back in 2008 but we just haven’t realized it yet. Now we are realizing it.
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/soros-says-europe-u-s-turmoil-like-collapse-of-soviet-union?r
Hey Dreizin,
I like your comments and videos, I think they are great. But I have one question. So the commodity analysts Goehring & Rozencwajg predicted a realignment of US natural gas prices to international prices (which are way higher because US gas markets have been isolated so far) as more LNG export facilities are coming online, to make a long story short. There has been a fire on a Freeport LNG export facility in Texas beginning of June, which crashed the Henry Hub gas price by about -40%. Now regulators are saying they won’t licence reopening until September. Interestingly they’ve given a fixed date instead of saying it depends on the repairs. I’m sure there’s nothing suspicious here and no correlation with the November elections, however lower gas prices are not a disadvantage for the democrats. At the moment gas prices are around $8,80 per MMBTU in the United States and $45 per MMBTU in Europe (= $1,600 per 1,000 cubic meter here in Europe). I think that’s an interesting developement to watch, if and when it’ll materialize.
Be it as it may, the point here was to show that I’m interested in getting it right which leads me to my question. I get your arguments about the Pann-de-mmykk of the Vakk-synn-ay-tted and I hear alot in social media about “complications”. But the picture you are drawing sounds very dramatic. Is this really going to happen in winter? And is it going to get as bad as you say? The leading german industrial association BDI said on 4th July that preparations are necessary for the period between autum and spring next year as they expect up to 20% less working hours in a worst case due to health issues. Lufthansa right now is missing 30% of it’s ground staff health related but missing personal in the air is just in the single digits (I must say English is not my first language). My point is, even we have say 10-15% less personal available, it all might be very managable and we might not see the chaos you describe. I mean how many people are really working at their full potential or rather at 60-70%? In addition, should we not have first indications of things to come looking at countries in the south who are in winter right now, like Argentina for example? Yes, what is the status in Argentina actually? Are we having chaos there already? Reading Buenos Aires Times online version on a regular basis (retail investment related), I must say I haven’t seen anything so far.
Again, I’m not interested who is right or wrong, I’d like to get it right.
And thank you for your work, I think it’s really educational.
Best regards,
Lucas
You say that, “the bill is finally coming due. It will be felt, to one extent or another, by almost every U.S. citizen, other than the ultra-rich.” Our household income is about 400K USD. Is that ultra enough for us to continue sneering at the peasants?
Depends where you live
It doesn’t matter if one believe or not believe. It only matters if there is any chance of changing global economy to reverse the climate changes or o stop them. There is absolutely not a sliver of hope for that change. Burning of fossil fuels will stop when there will be no more fossil fuels to burn. End of story
Some signs in Canada of the Pann-de-mmykk coming back:
https://globalnews.ca/news/9009182/kitchener-ontario-grand-river-hospital-postponing-surgeries/
I am hoping you are right about the (re)structuring of power back to the states after the central gouvernment lost its credibility.
Given the forces being i am afraid its more likely that power will be shifted to the global level instead.
I know you guys think Global Warming is a hoax. I am a physicist and know it’s real and desastrous for the human species and 90% of all species on a global scale.
As early as 2024 California and other western states of the US that depend on the water reservoirs like Lake Mead and the Colorado river will have no water left to use. This means complete destruction of the economy and milions of dead people in California, Nevada, Utah etc.
Millions will try to flee. The government will try to bring water by plane and train and truck, which will make water more costly than fossil fuels. The destruction of the mighty USA from climate change caused by global warming caused by CO2 from burning fossil fuel has already started.
That’s just the beginning. India and Asia will also suffer from heat and humidity that just kills you from overheating your inner organs.
People should prepare fro what is comming in this decade already. The decades after 2040 will be much much worse. Modern civilization will collapse.
Oh you’re a physicist, are you. You sound about 15 years old. With a German email address, your specialty is in the physics of Lake Mead? It doesn’t take a genius to read American headlines about drought in the U.S. Southwest. You know, I’m practically a physicist myself.
How could you write this with your fingers glued to the Autobahn?
Why are you here posting lunatic BS? Own the weather 2025 is the title of a USAF report – read it!
So there will be “Fried Egg”, but there’s no “Cook” to it
Jacob, I don’t know if you read Lew Rockwell but just in case you don’t, I highly recommend this article on the coming disaster: https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/07/lew-rockwell/the-covid-vaccine-plot/
You might not want to publish this comment because of the URL. If not, I understand. I’ve known bits and pieces of this the entire time and I’m am just floored by the summary in that article. This is going to be the greatest disaster that our country — heck, the entire world — has ever witnessed.
You talk about what will happen to USA and how European countries will be affected, generally. But what do you think is going to happen to Canada and Australia for that matter? I have friends there, I just don’t know if I should give em a warning not knowing how big the economical hit will be in their contries and how severe the next pann-de-mmyk is going to happen there.
I appreciated the pre-cognition about the Pann-de-mmykk of the Vakk-synn-ay-tted (POTV).
There may be a POTV coming but it may not be. Its anyone’s guess.
However, I don’t think the dust has settled on the issue of ‘did we just have a pandemic or was it a plandemic’? I don’t think the answer to that is irrelevant. I think it is EVERYTHING.
Disclaimer: I assume the ko-roh-na was a product of some biolab i.e. not zoonotic. Furthermore, I have to make the safest assumption possible and that is: ko-roh-na was/is biowarfare. The vakk-syns were the 2nd punch of the double whammy…
See unz.com for more of the evidence for that claim of ‘its biowarfare’.
So, the idea that POTV is coming and the root cause of it will be mutating ko-roh-na is a little bit too much for me. I guess my predictive skills are not up to scratch here, but the main point for me is that the POTV could also be totally unrelated to reality: it could be totally made up (like the stock market) or be based on PCR v2 ‘tests’. And we all know the value of those…
If DISCONTINUITY happens, what do you think it will happen to IT giants like Apple, Microsoft, and etc? Also, would the demand for programmers will suffer accordingly? Are we going back to the era where more ‘physical’ engineers (electric, civil, mechanical, etc) are in more demand?
I’d say so. 80% of software ‘engineers’ are completely useless.
You had me glance at my old deployment pictures. The Humvee turret looks like just a normal uparmored one.
Look at pictures 3 and 4 in this articles slide show.
https://www.army.mil/article/50173/continuous_army_innovation_yields_improved_gunner_protection
Picture 3 https://api.army.mil/e2/c/-images/2011/01/07/96230/max1200-army.mil-96230-2011-01-10-160137.jpg
Picture 4 https://api.army.mil/e2/c/-images/2011/01/07/96231/max1200-army.mil-96231-2011-01-10-160137.jpg
It’s still some captured US swag and incites the same disgust as seeing the Taliban driving one. Might just be a clapped out M1114 or M1151, but what a waste. If I knew then what I know now, I would not have given Uncle Sam 8 years.
Ah, OK thanks.
The problem is NOT the dis-ease (KA-OOH-WID-9/11); the problem is the cure (the jean-therr-uh-pee shot).
“Pathologist Speaks Out About KOH-VID Jab Effects”
* https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/07/03/pathologist-speaks-out-about-covid-jab-effects/
Decentralization is the only way forward, also known as massively downsizing the Federal government carnivore. The a Republic was established with 50 states for a reason: to decentralize power as intended by the Founding Fathers.
Well projected. I was a young adult through the 70s-80s inflation. It was not that painful for hard workers because the US ws industrialized and not heavily financialized. And our lifestyles were simpler. This time will be, as you said, very different. Red tape and regulation are FAR WORSE. The national culture and attitude is waaaasy worse. We have become lazy and entitled and it WILL hurt.
For what it’s worth, only the services PMI is down below 50, the manufacturing PMI is still above, but falling fast:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi
However, you would think that with all the weapons that have been sent to Ukraine, the replenishing of those stocks would show up as solid manufacturing growth, which is not the case, except for a bump February to May.
Pretty bleak when not even war is able to resuscitate the economy. On the bright side, that might mean that the flow of weapons to Ukraine will stop soon.
Hello. OK, FWIW. The metric that I referenced is a “composite” (as per its name) which covers both services and manufacturing, on a weighted basis.
Hi Jacob, Professor Richard A Werner was also right in the roebel. Excellent post!
Re. Depopulation.
A lot of data coming to light from various governments around the world of an “unexplained” decrease in births for the last 9 months. Around 9% for most reporting countries but with Taiwan showing an alarming outlier of over 20% decrease in the number of births.
Ivory Hecker on Rumble did a very decent review of the figures.
https://rumble.com/v1ai1k2-finally-getting-data-on-fertility-rumors-and-its-stunning.html
Yup, “Doom” is on the way for rotting, financialized, debt-ridden, and polarized America (not to mention the Euros) to be sure. And the U.S. hope to take Russia out of the great game in order to “confront” China by bleeding the Ukros to re-capture “Empire” has backfired. The pan-dyym-eek fiasco damaged global supply chains and the stupid sanctions are making things worse. The Russia-China and BRICS countries are well on their way to forming a global economic/military monolith competing with the fading U.S. Empire and the world roils! Doom could come sooner rather than later if the U.S. doesn’t finally “eat crow” (find an off-ramp) and back off the Ukro disaster. If later, IMO, probably best to nurture your enclave and find local sources for food and solace, etc.
From Escobar’s latest: “Western governments are collapsing. Sanctions are being ditched – practically in secret. A Deep Freeze winter is a given. And then there’s the incoming economic/financial crisis, the Definitive Monster from Hell, as Martin Armstrong has made it quite clear: “There is no way they can get out of this other than default. If they default, they are worried about millions of people storming the parliaments of Europe…This is really a tremendous financial crisis that we are facing. They have been borrowing year after year since WWII with zero intention of paying anything back.
Meanwhile, Moscow may be revving up the turbines to launch – this coming Fall? In the middle of Winter? Next Spring? – a multi-spectrum Mother of All Offensives, capitalizing on a rolling series of interconnected strategies that have already rendered dazed and confused every NATOstan “analyst” in sight.”
” …….. the USA couldn’t hope to win a sanctions war against Russia at the given stage of the commodities cycle.)
That stage being the “demand destruction” stage of the cycle. Just to hone the point. The price of oil for an example of several dozen commodities in our market system, which was supplanted, by what Kevin Phillips acutely and at length described as “Finacialization” or as my spellcheck offers, “fictionalization”, in his book “Bad Money”. In 2007 at the end of GWBs 2nd term as POTUS, when Credit default swaps were called. Then came Obamas call for Larry Summers to bail out Goldman Sacks, his real employer. Bill and Hillary lined their pockets, Tony Blair got a cush job on the gravy train consulting fo KSA, and Joe Biden got the Ukraine. People I might know lost their houses, and got an unlubed shaft. Most folks got at least a hard “reset” of their relative societal value. Years that destroyed alot of demand. Not for credit, for commodities. Thus a L shaped recovery of the “markets” Negative interest rates, remember that? I tell ya it’s just one crises after another existential crises. Unless you work for the gobermint. Municiple workers here get healthcare. And they get to boss people around. And count the votes. But I’m rambling now. What I really wanted to say is, a good breakfast food is freedom. But if you can’t get that, go pick as many Raspberries as you want. then slice up some home grown potatoes, and fry them in some homemade lard, drain them in a skillet that needs some oil, clean off your Sabettier, oil it, and steel it up sharp. When the potato chips are cool, mix with some cracklins and salt and Raspberries. Peapods will also work. Or later, tomatoes. Possibly, onions too. If you refridgerate the lard, it will keep quite awhile, then it can be used for pie crusts. The demand for Shepards pie made with Lamb is at an all time low, but I’m not sharing, sorry. Besides if i tell people it’s organic, they don’t want any, round here anyway.
OK, gotta go now and watch the trainwreck. the Gravytrain wreck, and lookout for when they shut down the local prison. The guards are working double shifts, not enough guards. There’s a discontinuity for you, no one want’s to become a prison guard, no one who is qualified anyway. I think they should hire lawyers, normal billing, and judges. Maybe when their pensions tank, IDK.
What you say is true and you’re certainly right the bill is coming due however not in the way you think. Everything will be shaken,, as in all the worlds institutions and in the hearts and minds of the people.
“There is an evil which I have seen under the sun as an error proceeded from the ruler (Satan) folly is set in great dignity and the rich (God’s children) sit in low place I have seen servants upon horses and princes walking as servants upon the Earth… Ecclesiastes chapter 10
“Every scripture is given by inspiration of God and is profitable….” The former days Noah to Jesus are given for our instruction the latter days from Christ until now are of grace for our salvation,
To repent is to turn back to return to that which is right.
The question is do you think that this is just another time in history where mankind has showed his utter and complete inability to govern himself, or perhaps that the in your face clown world is showing the coming conclusion of the whole matter.
Man I love the word of God! Watch out for hirelings and antichrists
For what I understood, when people talk about GDP readings, it’s always real GDP. If I am correct than stagflation is always a consequence of high inflation, because it’s not realistic than the US economy can grow at a nominal rate of 10% or more to counter inflation.
So it’s bad but not that bad, in nominal term GDP is still growing solidly.
Moreover, I would say a move that looks inevitable to me is the cancellation of the public debt owned by central banks.
I’m gonna take a SWAG — you don’t work at the central banks — am I right?
The adjustments supposedly accounting for real versus nominal GDP fall far short of fully correcting for inflation.
Check out John Williams “Shadow Government Statistics” at shadowstats.com The adjustments made to the CPI over the past five decades have completely demolished the index as a reliable indicator. Look up the “Boskin Commission” of the mid-90’s (under Alan Greenspan) to see how definitions were manipulated in order to constrain the growth of inflation-indexed government programs (social security, other pensions, etc).
I know that but still I would like to understand: the GDP readings are real GDP or nominal GDP? It’s a simple but fundamental question and yet it’s almost impossible to get this simple information anywhere.
All headline numbers are “real” (adjusted for what they think inflation is.)
Ok, I guessued it. So that means that in nominal terms the American (and European) economies are growing at a pace of what? Let’s say +5-6%? That means, among other things that stock market is crashing in nominal terms by 20% while the economy is growing solidly (in nominal terms): it doesn’t make much sense to me! That also implies that the hopes of some buffons in the globalist departments who actually would wellcome a recession in order to cut rates and start printing again are just dreams, as they would eventually need, in order to ease monetary policies again, a nominal recession not a real recession like the one we have now.
In order to cause a nominal recession now, you need to increase rates far and above the inflation rates, pretty much like it was in the 70s.
Don’t forget that $8-9 trillion has been pumped into Wall Street through the markets and they’re still teetering on the precipice. The Plunge Protection Team won’t be able to stabilize much with even more trillions of bucks with declining worth.
And what about Russia? Nabiullina said the GDP will shrink by 5% this year…but that is also in real terms, isn’t it? So nominally what it will be? +10%? and in dollar terms how much will it be? +30%? It looks to me that even the most basic macroeconomic number (GDP) is useless as you can read it in different ways, giving you different pictures: much better given out always the nominal GDP, one thing is saying we are in recession, another is saying the growth can’t keep pace with a double digit inflation.
Thoughts on the impact of downstream “ESG” lunacy – which has turned Sri Lanka into a virtual canary in a coalmine with their embrace of “green” agriculture, which is now rearing it’s ugly head in the Netherlands, and most alarmingly, in Canada. If this is the real reason, or as speculated elsewhere, a “land grab” to force producers into contrived bankruptcy, Add in reports of major investors purchasing large tracts of ag properties. 30K foot overview analysis, por favor.
What will their property taxes be like, is one thing I wonder. Also, how will they farm without diesel? without NPK? without Bees? Reminds of the Farmer who won the powerball. Neighbor say’s, “Ray, what ya gonna do now with all them millions? Ray says, “Well, I recon I’ll just keep farmin’ till it’s all gone”
Then too, I guess whatever they do pay will corrupt local and state gobermint unless they ain’t one pardy or the other …..
How can I financially support
Doom ? hell no , collapse is humanity’s only hope when government solutions are worse than the problems
A great, if gloomy post, and if it comes to pass as you say, will be the biggest shock to the world in modern history
Being of retirement age, and noticing that my invested pension was starting to lose value, I cashed out on everything. My question now is, where is that cash safe? Bank? Under the mattress? How do you prepare? I’ve asked Tom Luongo the same question…his basic response for ‘preparing’ is to get rid of as much debt as you can. I’ve done that. Other advice was to purchase needed appliances, etc., to ward off the coming supply shortages. I’ve done that too. So, where do you put the cash that is left over, at least temporarily, where there is no risk??
I have the same question
I have the same question, for example convert as much as you can to gold?
Thanks Jacob. I don’t want to believe you’re right – and you may not be. But I also see the signposts. We all tend to assume that life will always be like it always has been, that there will be no major discontinuities. Most of my family avoid looking too closely at what is really happening. They don’t want to know. I’ve always been aware that history is full of discontinuities that nobody expected, or wanted. I certainly don’t want to believe it. I really hope you’re wrong this time Jacob.
So I think you are wrong about ron-a but then I read past posts and your right a lot so let’s park that one. In an actual war you get the winner from the ‘war of the factories’ ie which combatant economy can outproduce the other. Britain was actually a much more mobilised economy than Germany and consistently outproduced on materiel. Past proxy wars with Russia have all run on the same basis- the US created so much surplus capital that it could supply easily into the middle east throughout the 70s and 80s. This proxy war is radically different. The US has deliberately slowed the economy to lower demand for oil. Despite your dismissing of recent price drops the oil price is driven globally by the amount of surplus capital created by the US. Oil is really the driver that keeps Europe on the teet of US capital formation which is so enormous that, apart from controlling the oceans and space, can plug the defence spending as % of GDP gap of every country in Europe. The surplus capital of the US is the biggest and most powerful weapon on Earth. If the US cuts production of all goods by another 10% the only decentralisation and dissaray is going to be in Europe. The Homeland economy of America would continue as was. Are you sure that oil is going to stay high after 6 months of recession in the US? Wheat prices are already back to pre war levels because of demand falls so why not oil?.
“Capital surplus”?? I think you are confusing $USD paper claims with actual capital. Anglo-American financial ‘engineering’ has created a LOT of fake value (nominal valuations) through absurd expansion of the money supply, completely detached from the logically required expansion of production of actual goods and services.
That “most powerful weapon on earth” may be temporarily employed to enable the the US Military to enforce some of the geostrategic objectives of the neoCon/neoLiberal special interests, but it comes at the net expense and detriment of the US population which suffers job loss and reduced purchasing power due to the inescapably inflationary character of the ‘capital’ created by the financial system & QE appropriated to fund the military.
“The US has deliberately slowed the economy to lower demand for oil.” Well, that is an ‘interesting’ take on the present situation. In actual effect, the US has created the conditions for reduced oil availability, and continued demand has caused price increases. Of course, these increases in turn have slowed the economy to the extent that the inelastic portion of demand for petroleum results in reduced ability to purchase other goods and services.
“If the US cuts production of all goods by another 10%……The Homeland economy of America would continue as was.” Huh??? This assertion is intrinsically illogical. Is this what you actually meant to say? Among other things, it implies that the US economy is currently carrying on just as it has in the recent past, or that its recent state was sustainable, and this is patently not the case. Car repos are way up, housing prices are dropping, stock market and bond valuations etc are generally falling in concert with interest rate increases. But if the Fed reverses or even just halts the tightening policy, inflation expectation may swell uncontrollably.
My brain keeps refusing to accept some of your more apocalyptic predictions and my gut keeps telling me you’re right. I need to trust my gut more.
About the vakk-seen. Here’s a graphic I made based on data from England (ONS), by age group. Those vakk-syn-ay-tted are light color, and those NOT vakk-syn-ay-tted are dark. Notice the black lines, for the “specially protected” group of 90+. The vakk-syn-ay-tted (dotted line) have been dying more even since before 2022, unlike the other age groups, and are now falling like flies (over twice as many as the NOT vakk-syn-ay-tted). Deaths (all causes) for the vakk-syn-ay-tted are actual figures, while the the much lower figures of the NOT vakk-syn-ay-tted have been applied its corresponding adjustment factor (% of vakk-syn-ay-tted/ % of the NOT vakk-syn-ay-tted). The group of 80-89 aren’t doing great either, over 50% more deaths, but at least those held their ground until February. Not looking good already for the vakk-syn-ay-tted:
https://i.ibb.co/B3bF2xK/Screen-Shot-07-23-22-at-04-55-PM-2.png
Even in rural communities, Americans have been feared into bad behaviors. Remember “sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me.” That was masculine. We don’t have that anymore. Today, even “men” at utility companies, phone companies, parcel delivery companies, and I’ll say it here — special forces and municipal police — all of these are monitoring and coordinating harassment of US citizens who have uttered incorrect words. Especially the angry party and demographic groups are doing this. (Harassment is off the charts, take my word for it.) They love targeting US citizens who know something and who can help others, those persons are being ostracized and ridiculed and harassed and worse. See the “We are everywhere” psyop commercial, it basically advertises what the military is doing.
Good bracing stuff. Thank you Jacob.
In the 1980s in the UK and no doubt across the West, the smart people started saying OK we are going to let the third world have all the low profit stupid jobs and we are going to do the high profit smart jobs. Plus service work is just as valuable as manufacturing. After watching how smart some of those people from the thrid world were I was not convinced this was a good plan but rather a justification for the offshoring that was happening anyway.
But I cheer myself with the thought that things never, repeat never turn, out the way you expect.
Jacob, просьба прокомментировать “Istanbul Wheat Agreement”, означает ли это что наступление на Одессу откладывается до 2023 ?
Waking up to a gorgeous sunny day in the mountains in Austria this article was a great reality check! Maybe this was how a Roman felt in 434AD. We have come to assume that history always progresses positively (the updated “Whig interpretation of history”) but often it does not. As was the case for most of Central Europe from 1914 to 1945 at least.
Your comment above about the racket that so many US / other western industries have become is apposite. I did think of them as “rent seeking” but that at least has to based on a real asset that adds value. In reality, they are not even based on that. I wonder if anyone has assessed how much of US, UK or other western income is based on industries that objectively are a “racket”. Would be a sobering analysis. Let me add banking and consulting to the mix.
Good too that the Russians not only capture Humvees but also make helpful improvements to them. I bet that if Uncle Sam or any other western army copies those improvements then it will pay a multiple of what the Russians did and take maybe a decade or so to do it!
Hi. Ur sure the crumbling Economy of the West is about the Whyruss and not about the exhausting nation building process aka lost war in Afghanistan?
Well Post-USSR in the hard 90ies had alike issues after same experience, Alexander if i’m halfway correct too… well the Macedonians kept it running for some 100 years after that but they never did that well anymore. 😉
But I generally agree, we made India, Taiwan and China our workbench, unlearned the stuff, now we are wondering, why they put us the parasites of theyr work aside. Buy made in USA not in best case assembled in USA, might help… even if it is now the worse product for the higher price. Just an idea.
Tangentially related to your post:
As the world’s center of gravity migrates Eastward, many of our bullsh*t exports will be made in B, R, I, and C at lower cost and with higher quality. With Russia’s floor on the physical gold price, the West’s ability to manipulate paper gold pricing will have hard limits. And, with the migration from USD based trades to RMB, RUB, BRL, and INR based stock and commodity trades, our PPT’s ability to manipulate prices and stick save at market close will decline.
Why trade in the City of London or NYC or Chicago when HK, SH, SG, Moscow, etc. are at the center of the action (without a recent history of arbitrary and capricious asset confiscation)?
Action, reaction. Interesting times.
Interesting take on stagflation. Red states would be the best places to live, yes? Looking for work, too, at 65. I don’t think I want to move to TX. Nebraska, Utah, and South Dakota [Brrrr] did better in lockdown economy.
https://foodremedies.blogspot.com/2022/07/16-of-top-20-states-with-lowest.html?m=1
Been in logistics too long. Changing at this age wouldn’t be advised. Some skills but few are marketable skills.
The suppression of commodity prices via market manipulation is coming to an end. Russia has started to have a say in the pricing of their commodities. Now, here comes India with a new gold exchange:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4aFwJlb7XX4
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/india-launches-first-international-bullion-exchange-bring-transparency-2022-07-29/
Another tour de force. I’d like to say your wrong about the pann-de-mmyk redux but I haven’t dug deep enough to have an informed perspective. A few close acquaintances of mine have gone way down the rabbit hole in researching it and definitely lean in your direction that there something bad in store for us in the months ahead.
I certainly hope that you’re wrong but that’s me whistling past the graveyard (literally?). I grudgingly agreed to being vak-sen-armed to maintain my employment as I need a couple of more years to prepare for the approaching headwinds. Although I’ve had a strong sense that we in West are headed for a major disruption for a number of years now (and made some prudent decisions in preparation) I need a few more years to make a run for the hills and check out of the urban jungle. I’m afraid that the clock is winding down and I’ve run out of time.
Great write-up. Remember Deagel’s U.S. depop forecast? https://archive.is/nAHJK
What say you?
OK thanks, you ask for my opinion on that? “Deagel” is not a government contractor, probably not even a real company. That whole thing was just a fake Internet meme. Anyone who looks at that chart and buys the hoax, is a f*cking idiot. Sure, there will be population loss, but not 75-80 percent.
I concur 🙂
James Corbett did an excellent takedown of the Deagel “conspiracy”. The site is a total fraud. https://www.corbettreport.com/?s=deagel. I am on the fence as to just how many people will die as a result of the vexxine, but I will willingly bet it won’t make a significant dent in western populations, which will continue to spiral upwards thanks to uncontrolled immigation. The whole supposed depopulation agenda of the global elite, is a total myth (although personally I’d love a reduction by up to 90% if it could be achieved without genocide). However, what our rulers do seem to want is a massive reduction in people of European descent, either by replacement or interbreeding – and indeed general degeneracy. In this they seem to be singularly successful, helped along by two World Wars and maybe a third aout to break out. Meanwhile, Africans and Asians will continue to make lots of babies ….
The antee-genic fixation effect of the Vakks is already causing higher infection rates for the vakksed vs. un-vakksed. But for a pann-de-myk of Vakksed to be **deadly**, the vy-rus would have to hit upon a variant that is much more deadly than omee-kron. Is there an objective vyrolo-gy basis to predict the odds over time of such a moo-tation occurring? Why “next Spring”? Is that just a hunch, or does it have a sciency basis in vy-rology?
(I almost forgot the retarded spellings).
In vy-rus world, virulence (aptitude to cause severe/deadly illness) does not provide selective benefits (think E-bolah : one outburst, village decimated then burnt down, end of e-pee-demicks story).
Contagiosity does, esp. in im-muno logic-ally naïve populations (ko-ronna 1st wave). (When you have both, once in a millennium, it’s called black plague or, to a lesser extent, Spanish flu.)
This correlates with what we’re witnessing: natural selection, from the original strain, of less and less virulent (loss of pathogenic traits via random mutation), yet quite contagious vary-ants (oh-mee-kron the latest).
Given this natural trend, together w/some amount of acquired herd cross-immuni-tee, I don’t see a high probability of a deadly vary-ant popping up, at least naturally.
That was then, this is now. EM-NEN-ARE-AAA VAXX-ZEENES is a game changer because it operates differently from traditional VAXX-ZEENES. We don’t yet know what the long term effects of this new methodology will be. The normal efficacy/harm testing was bypassed in order to implement large scale inoculation as soon as possible. Lots of studies are now coming out which highlight these new impacts such as acute myocarditis in young people, suppressed fertility in woman of child bearing age, and high mortality among the immuno-compromised. This is not biology 101, but a fundamental and unknown man-made alteration in the billion year history of life on Earth.
There lies the rub, „naturally“… If you have ever had the -rona in your family/household/circle, you will have witnessed the unnatural way it affects everyone differently and attacks the weaknesses of some while bypassing others. I’m convinced it’s anything but natural and am very happy to have survived and hope that I am now „naturally“ i-moooon
Interesting thesis, what do I win if you’re wrong?
I like the gloomy prediction. But I think (hope) the Fed views its job as protecting the economy from D.C. and Europe. Will raise interest rates to kill inflation and protect the dollar. Then Trump (Mnuchin, Bannon, Nunes, etc) comes back in 2 years to clean the D.C. stables or burn down whatever’s still there.
Good post. Agree with your dark forecasts. Re a coming upending-of-everything due to a pann-de-mmyk,
“Will 100 Million Die From the COVID Vax by 2028?” https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/07/16/will-100-million-die-from-the-covid-vax-by-2028/comment-page-1/
You do realize that your predictions of doom – well thought-out and well-meant – join the oldest historical literary tradition that the United States has. Our writings on political economy began with Thomas Paine; by the time Gouverneur Morris rescued him from the guillotine, he, too, was convinced that our country had no future. Given the follies that were coming after Washington left office, Paine’s pessimism was more than justified. But, you have not included in your thesis is your own direct experience, just as Paine chose to ignore his. You are here – as yet another successful import. There is a reason that the American Constitution has an explicit provision that requires Congress to exercise the power to create new Americans; even in 1791 intelligent Americans knew that the country was going to have to rely on human imports to offset its chronic brain deficits. We have; we still do. And, unlike Cassandra, none of us knows how it will all turn out.
I don’t know what you think you read. I obviously didn’t write anything about national doom.
Of course, you did. The “breaking” of the U.S. currency is what happened in 1778, 1819, 1914 and 1933; no one then thought those events spelled anything less than “doom”.
“As I’ve said many times, the USA will be on the floor sometime between now and early spring. I think it will be so bad, and will discredit the Feds and the national political establishment to such an extent…..
…..and will move the political balance so far away from big cities and the blue states (where the death toll will be much greater), and will break the currency with another “rescue” package on top of the last one that we never recovered from…..…..that it will lead to a decentralization of political (and perhaps even monetary) authority away from Washington. (This is the only solution, otherwise the country will come apart.) The same problems in Europe will bring down governments, lead to civil chaos, and essentially wreck U.S. hegemony over the continent, as the U.S. faces its own problems, and each European state looks to make a separate deal for Russian gas.”
The second oldest tradition in our country is arguing away the plain meaning of our own words. It is the reason Congress always ends up being full of lawyers; and so many of us (guilty) found “the law” as natural as ducks find water. Thank you for the reply.
LOL. Doom is doom. You are literally quoting me as saying that there will be political decentralization. How is that “doom”, exactly? It is a resolution. Jeez, some people just like to argue. Get the f*ck outta here.
cities will become overcrowded. it’s the only place to hide
That was impressive, you lost me a bit when you had your Max Keiser head on but I value what you say, your record speaks for itself.
Gummint checks won’t be worth much for the elderly and disabled…in the homeland, anyway. Getting more bang for the buck might mean moving away from the US (if you can), but there might be serious anti-American sentiment in various places once TSHF, so carefully choose where to move. I know people on social security disability looking into relocating to other countries.
There will be value freefalls in most Third World currencies, too, I imagine, even if they shift alliance to the RussoSino basket of commodity-based money. The BRI is partially about resources in exchange for infrastructure, after all. China will get its pound of flesh from the African nations it builds airports and bridges for, and Russia won’t take a thank you for wheat. (China has playing the game on both sides, btw, by cozying up to the WEF on globalization as they pal around with Putler.) I just hope banks will let us have access to our money as it declines to Weimar-level worth. To repay gummint “debts” to the rentier class, we might go through what Cypriots did with partial confiscation of bank accounts.
I’ve been part of discussion boards at various sites where it was known that the development of parallel societies of dissidents — in homeschool and home/small business cooperatives, culture, and so on — was necessary. Little has been done in any of those areas, though. Talk is easier than getting the work done. Maybe a glimmer of hope is that the steep decline of society will force us to bring those necessary things about, and we can rebuild things on our own terms. DC might be relegated to the role of moneyprinter and pension paymaster, if that.
I was thinking of taking my SS to Panama and living a quiet life there while the US implodes. Was supposed to go on a tour there in November also.
But after 2+ weeks of protests and closings of the PanAm highway (not gonna pay 2 grand to sit on a highway for hours or maybe days) that idea is probably out the door. Might just have to stay in the US and prep best I can for what’s coming.
It sounds like a good idea, but when the SHTF (and no country will be immune) you probably wouldn’t want to be a foreigner. You would be the first target.
The search for a better place to live in the US has gone into states (and then counties) where egg and turkey production is highest, locations with reliable water sources and intact meat processing plants, etc. IN, IA, NC, AR, MI are in the top 10 for both eggs and turkeys, for what it’s worth.
Panama and Ecuador use the USD as their currency, and many others (Georgia, Vietnam, on and on) supposedly prefer dollars for transactions like property rental. You can stay in Georgia (I mean the nation) and Albania for 1 year visa-free with your US passport. Being in nations near or friendly to Russia would make it easier to invest and bank there, of course. But what kind of weather do you like? Can you learn other languages, adapt to other cultures? Uprooting takes more than just moving to somewhere else.
Bravo! This post is epic, both in content and style. And since we’re revealing that-which-must-never-be-said, please allow me to twist the knife a little further.
First, because of prolonged affluence, we have largely become a nation of fat, lazy, entitled, degenerate suicidal sheep, and nothing can fix that except a collapse and the return of real hardship. No, we are not going to talk or vote our way out of the mess we’re in. Ancestral evolutionary fitness selection must once again do it’s magic and purge the weak while rewarding the strong. It can be no other way.
Second, if you’re sane and want to live, get out of the big city now. Find a safe haven somewhere to ride out the initial chaos and violence storm. Your goal should be to survive the collapse and then repurpose yourself as someone who can do real work producing things of actual value. Successful self reliance equals longevity in the coming Brave New World. The Year of Living Dangerously USA Edition is about to begin.
Third, don’t let the doom & gloom coerce you into either burying your head in the sand or throwing in the towel in despair. We stand on the shoulders of our ancestors, all of whom were fundamentally survivors, and their legacy is our DNA. We were built to move and prevail. You’ve got about 10 weeks to get your act together before things get real.
“Rentier parasitism” — can somebody explain term in a sentence or two? Or provide a useful link. Many thanks in advance
Start with “rentier capitalism”, the rest will make sense.
A great example is Microsoft, which came up with Windows about 30 years ago and has been running a worldwide monopoly (more or less) with an increasingly buggy, uninspiring, and only minimally/incrementally updated product since that time. Other than their own web browser and search engine (the search engine being pretty bad, and not popular), I really can’t think of anything significant that they have created since Windows. Yet they had over $60 billion net income last year. They are basically just a global vacuum cleaner.
Another example is Apple, which had about $109 billion net income last year. They manufacture in China using subcontractors (Foxconn, etc.) paying workers maybe $2 an hour, then sell their iPhones globally for as much as $1200 a pop, also taking a steep commission on apps, to include many, many thousands of apps developed in other countries. The phones are only very marginally better than what Samsung/Android produces (many would argue, no better at all), but people across the world line up to pay premium for a little “piece of America” in their pockets. It’s as lucrative as the 19th century opium trade.
Other examples are licensing out silly brand names such as Nike, Hilfiger, and all the rest; squatting on Hollywood and music rights for years or decades after the stuff has come out already; and licensing out patented drug formulas for foreign manufacture and then paying off the U.S. Congress/FDA to prevent reimportation of those drug products into the USA.
I’m not sure how much money this involves, but there is also a racket with respect to American college textbooks, which are used in many other countries (esp. for science & engineering) even though the distributors are not allowed to sell the (somewhat cheaper) foreign editions here in the USA.
Another racket worth tens of $ billions is well-off foreigners (and some foreign governments) sending their young people to study at our colleges and universities, when they can get the same quality education (in most subjects, certainly at the undergraduate level at least) in their own countries at a fraction of the cost, and without all the mandatory “Multiculturalism 101” etc. bullshit that is required at American schools. Again it’s just the prestige and “brand equity” of the USA that people are pursuing. This country is milking a lot of “equity” without offering real value. That’s parasitism.
Exactly. We’re paying for an aesthetic.
The solution? Run Linux and make your own coffee.
What the children of the elite can get in their local universities is the connections with domestic vampires, but at Harvard, Yale, Princeton, or even USC, etc. is connections with the big boy international vampires and their 1st tier servants. It’s similar to the function of Swiss and German finishing schools for EU old money, we outsiders can sometimes mistake the function of good manners for the function of “good” breeding.
NIce catch on video. If every wreck of a humvee came with a young blond woman, then I suspect the price would be higher than I can afford.
I’d say the most recent instantiation is Pfye-zzer.
The best example that incorporates, and identifies “rentier”, “capitalist”, and”parasite” is embodied in the person, Leona (“I thought only the little people paid taxes”) Helmsley.
“Rentier parasitism” means, essentially, people who live wholly or mainly from rents, fees, etc. paid by other people in return for the use of such resources as land, buildings, power, materials, etc. Or just for the use of borrowed money. Over time, the parasites accumulate more and more money and resources, leaving less and less for the real economy (aka “ordinary people”). Eventually, if nothing radical is done, the parasites can completely destroy a civilisation. That’s what happened to the Roman Empire.
It’s a fairly deep topic, if only because most people have been trained to accept it as normal – whereas it really isn’t. The best source is Professor Michael Hudson, who has written a number of excellent books. You can also read him online for free, as at https://www.unz.com/mhudson/finance-capitalisms-self-destructive-nature/. His own Web site is at https://michael-hudson.com/.
Look up Michael Hudson talks on YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5tSgiB_Tgc
Just 77 and don’t mind dying.
Thanks for that. I don’t think I’ve ever heard the original version before. I heard Quicksilver Messenger Service in the early 70s and George Thorogood and the Destroyers in the 80s. But Bo has some verses I never heard. Great song! My thanks again.
I can tell you that Tom Luongo has been talking on his blog about this for years and in his podcasts. I have been really catching up on him since the war started.
The biggest threat to US right now is MSM brain washing and clinically dead cable/ network TV spewing garbage “entertainment “
Thank you for your updates. Not pleasant to read, but we need to know the truth and what will befall our country. IMO, Whorsington D.C. is the equivalent of Versailles prior to the French Revolution. Hope you and yours can get the hell out of that jurisdiction before the $hit hits the fan
Worldwide unprecedecent times and NONE of it even bad … more like biblically catastrophic. Another great report … thanks Jacob
Tom Luongo has been speaking about rubles for gas for quite a while …
Check him out at TomLuongo.me
Here is his latest report: basically the Eurotrash EU is collapsing:
https://tomluongo.me/2022/07/21/ecb-raising-rates-is-europes-last-chance-to-avoid-ground-zero/
Thanks for the post. I follow it religiously.
Just checking!
Professor Dreizin returns, refreshed and reinvigorated after a digital vacay!
You covered a lot of ground, much of which I’m sadly uninformed about.
The previous American stagflation you refer to is from the 1970’s, correct?
TY
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Yes, there was high inflation from late 1973 to roughly 1981 or 1982. I’m not sure which of those were stagnation years, but it was more than a couple of them.
Yes there was inflation and idiots running the country. But we still had hope because the WW 2 generation was still around would kick the A** of any cry baby. If you use to eat steak then now eat hamburger. If that is not possible then eat cereal which is what they learn from the Great Depresion. A donut and coffee is just find but get out and get it done.
1973 start of US govt stance against consumption of animal fats. Also start of continual increase in various chronic diseases. As well as of prolonged gradual decline in various unrelated hormonal markers such as testosterone, around that time.
So a multipronged attack difficult for an human to conceptualize and coordinate.
Hi Jacob, I know you don’t offer counseling but do you mind if I pay you for some coaching or planning to help prepare? I’m single woman on my own with no family. I grew up in very abusive and dysfunctional family. I made it, but I’m not sure what to do next. I am American currently living in Serbia. I’m not sure if I should stay or move back to the USA for a couple months or a year to tie some loose ends, etc. Anyway can I email you please? I’m definitely willing to pay. Thanks
Very dark commentary, but I’m not surprised. Did you read Jonathan Cahn’s book “Harbinger 2”? Taking the template as to what happened to ancient Judah for not repenting of their sins after repeated warnings by the prophets and a first strike by the Babylonians, God’s patience finally gave up after 19 years and Judah was totally destroyed. The first strike against the USA was 2001 and Cahn predicted that it was likely God would lose His patience with sinful USA and 19 years later something would happen that would lead to our downfall. It happened!
The young, as always, are always a step ahead of their elders. In my area (suburban LI) all the 20-something young men have pretty much already gone medieval (shuffling around all day at minimum-wage jobs, dressing like bums, doing drugs, begging for food money) while their parents (myself included) work 70-hour weeks trying to maintain the upper-middle class 1990’s American dream.
When was the last time you saw a young person who gave a damn? They know in their bones what’s coming better than those of us who remember the Golden Days…
There are no Constitutional politicians in the usgov (except maybe Rand Paul). The rest are just whores.
I agree the dnc cities will burn from their evil ways, so a split of the USA will most likely occur in the near future.
Thanks Jacob , always a great read your posts are excellent.
Jacob, for your prediction of mass die offs is to be true, you have to assume that everyone who took the shawt received the same strength. The HowBadIsMyBatch site proposes that the companies shipped out various strengths of the shawt. If that is true, then a good part of the population does not have the full strength of the product in them. Which also means they may not have the health issues that you’re predicting.