A big hello to all the alt-propagandists (including Russia’s Ministry of Defense) who’ve been strangely quiet or obfuscatory the last few days. As for me here at the No Propaganda Zone, I only post about once a week nowadays, otherwise would’ve gotten to this sooner.
As I wrote in my last post, the Ukraine war will be decided by off-battlefield factors (the list of what those might be is increasingly long and scary.)
Putin’s “political” strategy of waging a big war without sufficient manpower (as I briefly covered in a recent post), not bothering the general population with a mass call-up of trained reserves, has shown its first big slide towards disaster.
A large and growing Ukrainian force—guided in its battle plan (judging by the tactics used) by U.S. and/or UK special operations officers, U.S. and UK trained since May, and equipped entirely with U.S. and other NATO country-donated hardware…..
…..including tanks from Poland; light armored vehicles from the U.S., Netherlands, and Australia; U.S. MLRS vehicles; and German self-propelled cannon—attacked a broad, largely undefended sector of the “front line” in Kharkov region…..
…..where the Russian side had ZERO regular army personnel, no proper defensive positions, and minimal (if any) antitank weapons on hand.
(This, despite at least one major Russian Telegram (social media) channel having warned on August 29th— about eight days before the start of the offensive—of an obvious, alarming concentration of Ukrainian forces in this specific (Balakleya) sector.
Although Russian losses have so far been surprisingly light, the Ukrainian offensive has more-or-less taken the road east to Kupiansk and thus cut off the entire Russian army group in Izium to the south…..
…..which, barring some “miracle” or the use of tactical nuclear weapons will have to (if not surrender, then) withdraw by unpaved roads to Lugansk to the east, first destroying or otherwise leaving most or all of its heavy gear, including at least 20 batteries of artillery…..
…..leaving the Slaviansk offensive permanently stalled, and Donetsk city with:
(1) no hope of restoring its water supply, rendering this city of (formerly) a million, “permanently” unlivable, and…..
(2) little hope of emerging from under shelling by U.S.-supplied 155mm cannon, which have become increasingly “sloppy” due to their greater distance from the city, leaving daily scenes such as this one:
Predictably (we’re talking about the Ukraine, after all), the Ukrainians are already going around this heavily pro-Russian area (referring again to eastern Kharkov) with blacklists…..
…..and arresting “collaborators”, including local officials and even businessmen who provided any services to Russian forces. (One Russian border checkpoint now has a line of cars stretching for kilometers.)
(We can now forget about any “referendum” (to join Russia) in Zaporozhie or Kherson regions—no one will come out to vote, no one will even dare to participate in organizing a vote.)
Russia has brought in large reserves, but these are, IMHO (I’d LOVE to be wrong, as it would reduce the risk of nuclear war), not fully organized or positioned or instructed, and probably not-yet fully supplied, to quickly launch any kind of meaningful counteroffensive to counteract the smooth U.S./UK/Ukrainian battle plan.
At best (barring a “miracle”, or the use of tactical nuclear weapons), Russia can hope to hold on to a reduced slice of Kharkov region, with Kupiansk as a frontline city and no longer the capital of a Russian Kharkov administration.
Now, regarding the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukraine, which from the American side was only ever publicly mentioned by the commentator David T. Pyne…..
…..whom I mocked when he predicted it was a decision that Putin would take (or a threat he would make) in April or early May specifically, as it was clearly NOT warranted at the time…..
(This dude seems jumpy—he also said China will make its big move against Taiwan this year—but hey, everyone says “don’t read the Revelation of St. John literally”, i.e. if you turn out to be a prophet, everyone cuts you some slack on the details. Also just FYI, aspiring prophets should not set very tight deadlines.)
What’s really interesting is that some Russian official (I forgot who), had, evidently in anticipation of any potential Ukrainian counteroffensive being too successful, warned a few weeks ago—really, out of the blue—that Russia would only use nuclear weapons if the existence of the nation was at stake.
Well, look here….
We’ve got a large Ukrainian force armed with weapons systems donated by about 25 different countries—literally almost all of their armor and artillery, most of their munitions, all their gear, radios, helmets, body armor, uniforms, MRE’s, maybe everything but their AK-47s is donated…..
…..they’ve been trained for months by U.S. and UK specialists….. they receive guidance for their rocket artillery from U.S./UK satellites….
…..and very likely, they are led or at least guided at “arms-length” by U.S. and British generals (clearly this offensive was based on U.S./British special forces and motorized light infantry tactics from Iraq and Syria, it’s not something the Ukrainians came up with on their own)…..
…..so the Ukrainian force is basically the U.S. Army, or a NATO army, just speaking a different language…..
…..AND, it’s some tens of kilometers or whatever from the Russian border, and if the Russian force around Izium is surrounded and has to evacuate without its gear…..
…..there will be POTENTIALLY nothing left to stop the USA (also known as the Ukraine) from crossing the border into Russia if they wanted to…..
…..and then you have that “threat to the existence of the nation” scenario.
(Not to mention, such a huge military setback would be a threat to the existence of Putin, which he might perceive as “same as the above.”)
As one smart reader pointed out recently, the main restraint on Russia using nuclear weapons in the Ukraine, is concern over opinion in the “Global South”. Obviously, relations with the USA and Europe are so badly burned—much worse than during the Cold War—that it doesn’t even matter what “the West” thinks anymore (what are they going to do, steal some more Russian yachts? LOL.)
However, the USA has so thoroughly disgusted and alienated everyone in China, India, Saudi and just about everyone else not inside the U.S. hegemonic bloc (and even there, opinion is mixed)…..
…..that as it stands now, Russia could perhaps get away with using nine or ten, half-kiloton or one-kiloton devices, carried via precision cruise missiles launched from aircraft remaining in Russian airspace…..
…..and perhaps say hey we don’t know anything, maybe it was a MOAB, maybe it was a bunch of arms dumps that caught fire….. and it’s in a rural area and almost all of the civilians have evacuated already (as far as anyone knows)…..
…..and it’s possible everyone outside of the American camp will believe it, or act like they believe it, because that’s what Uncle Sam has done to the world.
(Or if they don’t, it doesn’t matter. If we avoid a nuclear war, then we will all have big problems next year anyway (besides Variant X, in November 2021, I called 2023 as the global Famine Year, and I stand by that.)
And that would be the end of the Ukrainian advance, and really of the Ukrainian army as a coherent force with any offensive capability at all.
And then incidentally, the precedent would be set for the Chinese, if they’re still standing after Variant X, to use tactical nukes to take back Taiwan.
So, as I said back in February or March, if the USA keeps escalating—and that’s a conscious choice, not just something that just happens—then the Ukraine will be destroyed. And I stand by that. Hopefully, it will be only the Ukraine, but who knows?
The question is (for Americans and Brits etc. who are reading this), how far are YOU prepared for your government to go?
Give the situation a few days. I suspect the Russians will not only prevail in the northeast, but again, they will destroy the Ukrainian formations. And then? A big push in whatever direction the Russians choose.
From what I have been seeing, the situation is stabilizing however war is a fickle mistress at the best of times,
Looks like the first really major battles are about to start, I do think they(Russia) have tried to do to much with to little, Ukraine can take a million dead as long as uncle Sam provides money and weapons, and their vassal states provide the training the war will continue,
Russian bloggers were warning of manpower and equipment was being gathered together in this area that was attacked.
Time for Vlad to man up declare War start general mobilization now, as I would want 6 months training for recruits before entering Ukraine, and since winter is coming would give the time to prepare.
The only real way for Russia to win, secure the east then level the west(Ukraine) finally some military commanders would be getting an all inclusive trip to Siberia.
P.S the next 2-5 years going to be very interesting in many different ways
There is one option Russia haven’t fully exercised. That is just go directly to Kiev. Everyone else is.
exactly. Mr Dreizin has lost it entirely. No basis whatsoever for his assertions. Russia will not use nukes.
That is what you are hoping for, especially if you want Ukraine to win. But, that in no way means Russia will not use small tactical nukes. It is very possible, and denying that possibility is like sticking your head in the sand.
He is a clever person , i respect him, but reading this post , it is good to see him failing
Who is failing, Putin or Dreizin? No offense to either please.
yep, that is exactly what I think based upon obvious considerations, tactical and strategic.
The only danger here is the US resorting to nukes since they have proven for the past several decades their utter incompetence at military affairs (and all affairs for that matters). In fact I do believe the probability thereof is high.
How about you let this comment leave mr drezin ?
Leave what?
“How about you let this comment leave mr drezin ?”
Mr Dreizin: my bad, please disregard.
The DreizinReport has proven to be spot on in the past and this Report is in line with that, as for the commander or (EX ) of the Ukrainian military operation having a one way ticket to Siberia is well on the card, it may well be that the Ukrainian offensive plays in the Russian hands of ” let them in so we can digest them at our leisure ” as they’ve done previously, now… would the Russians use nukes, even in a limited grade… I don’t think Putin would do it as it would go against all that he said previously and also he wants to make sure that the US is and has been the only one one using nukes, we all know that Russia would use nukes if others use it first, as for the obvious “in-plant” in this comment section making negative and quite stupid comments on what The DreizinReport said “may happen” these people should post for a JOB’S WANTED IN THE MISS-INFORMATION DEPT OF THE CLOWNS inc ( if they’re not already) that is somewhere in Virginia
And now for something completely different. ITS ALL THEATRE, we are walking on a movie set and everyone and everything is frozen in time… Sleepy Joe knew and said so months ago that US troops would be seeing Kiev soon ( well they did in this big push by Ukraine forces in name only offensive, along with special forces from UK, Canada, maybe French and Poland and others, Russia must’ve known as they have people in every nooks and crannies and comm system like and as good as the US, Sleepy Joe also knew of the biggest election fraud in American history also months before Nov 2020, he said it then and said it again in the past month ” that they will not allow any voter fraud in this mid term like they had in the last Prez election” truth from senile people is a problem, as don’t need tele prompters to say it, Russia’s military operation it seems is a controlled demolition with the approval of certain countries like the US, poss the UK and maybe China as they would pick comm’s from it, inflation… Gas and oil prices is all facade to make it look real, energy crisis in the EU is real as the plan calls for a complete destruction of the EU so that the US can control it like the good old days pre 60’s, as for the theatre of contesting the last Prez election in the US, mum wasn’t the word it was STFU to anyone in positions in the Senate or Congress, China Mitch got told to keep his troops on the reservation or else and all the loud mouths and the gonna’s all became as quiet as church mouses, Trump was non compliant with it all, and he’s been kept busy with For Brutal Injustice and the cheering of the last of the Mohicans, as for the WEF and its role in all this… the LIZARDS HAVE IT UNDER CONTROL, happy end of 2022 and a bright 2023 awaits you.
Too much rambling. Focus please, limit caffeine intake, limit your ingredients and look into something called “paragraphs.” Otherwise, thanks for reading and commenting.
in situation like this, russians have no other choice but to use one thing which gives them advance: and which gave allies advance over germany in WW2: AIRFORCE! i know ukraine have got tons of MANPADS from US, but it is a risk they must take now!
Dreizin are you serious? You actually think Russians might use tactical nukes because they’re in danger of losing to Ukrainians in the Donbass? I’m shocked and flabbergasted.
That does not jive at all with what you said about a month ago, in which you mentioned you will stop making videos about the Ukraine war because it’s basically over (as in, Russia won) and you want to cover more important things, and that Ukraine war stuff will go to your website blog only.
Could this recent Kharkov counteroffensive and Russians running away be a trap? I’m still trying to figure out whether this is a brilliant move by Russians or if it’s really complete and utter incompetence by the Russian high command. Hell, BLOGGERS in Russia knew this was coming, they were saying that a big concentration of Ukie armor force was building up in the Kharkov region weeks ago, so Russian generals should’ve known about it.
If things are really going down the way you described in this post, which is that Russians were caught by surprise and they are getting their asses handed to them and Izyum is in danger of falling and Donetsk City might lose its water supply, then the world view which I have built in my mind over the past 6 months is completely broken and shattered and I will have to do some serious coping. I had thought that Russian military was competent and Putin and his generals were wise and pragmatic. All the news media stories about how stupid and incompetent Russian military was and how insane and impulsive Putin and his generals are, I had discounted as fake news and US govt propaganda. But if what you’re saying is really true, then I might have to reconsider. Maybe the US news media was right about Russia and Putin all along?
On the other hand it could be a brilliant trap… I’ll have to wait for some more data. If casualty on the Russian side is light and the Ukrainian casualties are high, it could very well have been a planned withdrawal by Russians to lure Ukies into a self-made cauldron into which Russians can lob artillery.
Get off the ledge! 🙂
Agree, I doubt the Russians are stupid at all. We will know soon. We have never been given the plan. I doubt they will loose.
As with anything since the events beginning in 2020… wait a week. Wait a week before any definite conclusion is drawn. I think, to some extent (as Dreizin has alluded), that it was foolish (and I think arrogant) for Russia to try to keep doing this minimum force thing.
They wanted to say (something like), “See we kicked the entire West’s butt with a numerically inferior force because we’re all that.” And bam, reality gave them a hard slap.
I don’t think Russia is gonna now say anything like, “Oh well gosh, you beat us. So sorry. We’ll pack up and leave.” NFW. They are gonna come back big time. It might take a week or more to put the piece in place but there’s zero chance they’re gonna walk away after getting kicked in the nuts.
Hopefully they won’t go nuclear because, while it could be “overlooked” (or whatever) there is also a huge chance of escalation if/when any nuke goes anywhere. Then us folks in the USA will have a whole lot more to worry about than Variant X or the freaking economy.
IMHO the Russians have only made tactical retreats. Unlike the Ukrus, they are in the business of preserving lives, to fight another day.
This guy actually wrote a great introductory piece for his first substack… this is the 2nd: https://bigserge.substack.com/p/ukraine-counterattacks
He does levy the criticism that yes, the Russians can do tactical withdrawals, but the Ukrainians have been so vindictive that they take it out on the Russian-speaking civilians when they ‘retake’ a town, a la Bucha. That is not going to win Russia more ‘minds and hearts’ in the short-term… they’re saving a lot of soldier’s lives by giving ground tactically, at the expense of civilian ones.
Ukro-Nazis are now “filtering” Russian supporters as they did in Bucha and so many other places…
Poor people ;-((
One of the best things that a good friend can do is to frankly tell you the bad news to your face. Plenty bad, but worse not to know. As usual, Jacob, much appreciated!
I think Biden is pushing this offensive to show some victory before midterms. Putin will never allow Ukraine to win. West is mad because Putin turned off gas, which is going to destroy EU economy and they are trying desperately to remove Putin and to break Russia and start raping her again economically as it was in 90s. Very stupid plan. On the other hand, Putin wants Uk/USA/NATO to come closer and bring last resources in order to hit them hard.
In fact Poutin didn’t turn off the gas. the europeans are doing it .
That is not entirely accurate. Gazprom has Siemens eqpt. And as i understand Siemens is obligated to maintain this eqpr. Gazprom asked for for repairs and ,,, claimed that it is not compliant to import spare parts due to EU sanctions. Yes. That is correct Gazprom is following EU sanctions against Gazprom. And as soon as eqpt is not fully operational so it is not safe to provide gas to EU so pipe is closed.
Nukes?! Come on, you said it yourself – Russian losses have been surprisingly light so far. Most likely that’s because they’re controlling the situation. This counter is a political stunt, and won’t change shit in a long run, except weaking Ukranian forces. I think Brian from The New Atlas is really on the money here:
That was a scary post, without a doubt the scariest so far.
I think it was a bit historical. Russia would use tactical nukes if the very existence of Russia is at stake. Well, a few small towns were lost, let’s say all of Kharkiv oblast is lost, I really don’t see Ukraine marching into Russian territory. And even if that happens Russia has the conventional ways (army and weapons) to stop them. How is Russia’s existence threatened? They would first do general mobilisation I suppose before nuking stuff.
Fuck…they just couldn’t themselves and now look where we’re at.
Until this article I had not even considered Russia potentially being the first to use tactical nukes or any other kind of nukes for that matter.
I have been hearing for weeks about a possible Ukraine offensive in the Kharkov region. If indeed the Russians did not know of and did not prepare for one, it is a damning indictment of criminal negligence on their part.
Regardless, I believe nuclear war to be in our future. The West has gone insane….case in point the intentional aiding and facilitating of the bombing of the ZNPP.
It’s like everyone in the west has forgotten the horrors of nuclear weapons and has forgotten that Russia has the means of obliterating the entire United States and Europe in nuclear hellfire. As I have been declaring for sometime now, the collective west has gone insane.
I really do think you should eat, drink and be marry, because very likely tomorrow we all die.
Yes the colective west is insane. Decades of confort, crackpot ideologies and having everybody kissing your ass you lose touch with reality. The nukes will come. Jacob is right, better to Ukraine to dissapear(shithole anyway) than all the planet.
Yes – of course Russia knew about this attack near Kharkov
I knew of it about a week before so I am sure RU knew too 🙂
My gut feel this is a planned Trap !!
Will also be the last and final in the Donbass
Talks will start after this too
I can imagine Ukraine getting the Japan treatment. Putin (or somebody speaking Russian or English with a Russian accent) could say
“OK I warned you Nazi scum. You ignored my warnings over the years and now you’ve moved more weapons even closer to Russia’s borders. So, just like USA ended Japan’s WW-II ambitions without invading Japan, Russia is ending Ukraine’s ambitions in the Donbass in the next 72 hours. All you Nazi scum have 72 hours to get west of the Dneiper. Last warning.”
Jacob, love your work but your hair could not be more totally on fire on this one. Ukronazi losses in Kherson alone is 10k KIA. The main risk of nuke attack now is a US false-flag against itself in a desperate attempt to entirely change the topic before the EU economy explodes. Take out Kiev or San Diego or Menwith Hill. Mossad did it in Beirut with zero consequences. Blame it on RF and China and hope and pray to turn the world against Eurasia. The US can’t win on the battlefield.
Ukraine KIA/MIA in the southern offensive were certainly under 1000, which is still serious. The *entire* Ukrainian attacking force (including artillery and engineers) was around 10,000. You’d better find some new sources. Don’t be a mindless zombie.
I had just barely pushed the SEND button on a brief forward of a conversation on the Ukraine to a small address list when your notice of a new post came into my inbox. I had come to the conclusion–and stated it pretty confidently–that the only way this Ukraine situation stops is for the U.S. to ORDER it to stop. I believe NATO would come into line, and if somehow Zelensky were to be whisked safely out of the picture, the Neo-Ns would have little to swat at. With arms flow halted, fighting would grind to a halt if even the army did not lay down its weapons.
But was I wrong? Is there any other authority or combination or mechanism that–realistically-stop this? I sure do not see Putin and Shoigu simply withdrawing tail between legs, eh?
Nothing that napalm bombs can’t deal with.
So what happened here? We all thought Russia was far superior to a Nato lead Ukraine which had few troops and no weapons left? Did that turn out to be wrong suddenly?
And why do people like Military Summary say that Russian maps show the Kiev troops further advanced than the Kiev maps? That is weird.
And where does Russia want all these Nazis and equipment and Nato trainers anyway? It sure doesn’t want them in W Ukraine – that way Himars can be hitting civilians for decades.
Kherson to me was an obvious trap (or poisoned piece in chess) – vulnerable, on the wrong side of the Dnieper, daring to have a referendum in an area every propagandist says is strongly pro-Kiev. And that worked out badly for Kiev.
I reckon the Kharkov “weakness” from Russia is a trap too.
China has been threatening to zap some of Elon Musk’s Star Link satellites out of orbit. Maybe they might accidentally zap a bunch of our global positioning satellites at the same time. Without gps, targeting for some of our weapons would not work so well.
The Russians were warned early on that taking out any of our satellites could mean war. If China did the deed, would that change the risk?
Ukraine is all-in with the Kharkiv offensive, as they have pretty much thrown all they have left into the breech north of Izium. Now look at the terrain on GoogleEarth. The region is dominated by many watercourses running north-south and some even snaking east-west locally. The lifeblood of any offensive is logistics; to keep moving you need fuel, ammo, medevac, and eventually food. How does it get the front, via roads that go over bridges. Russia owns the sky and has already demonstrated long reach missile attack capability (which includes hypersonics, so any air defense by AFU is marginal at best). These bridges are still standing because Russia is allowing it. Why would they do this? Perhaps to lure infantry and armor forward into a kill box created by destroying the bridges that provide the only means of escape. Could this be a redux of the “Bridge at Remaggen”? Too soon to tell, but it won’t be long before we find out.
I would bet on the “Great Rammstein twitter-offensive marching into a Russian firetrap/cauldron without meatshields” scenario, but ask me in two weeks.
We will never actually “know” anything seeing as everything we purportedly “know” has been filtered through countless biased filters before we even get a glimmer. That which I do know is that which I can lay my hands on and prepare for as best I can with what I have.
Dreizen’s assessment of the Ukrainian “offensive” is delusional. Ukraine has nowhere near the four to eight brigades that would be necessary to conduct such an offensive. But they throw a sacrificial battalion at the lines here and there. See the Battle of Cannae. The Russians pull back, and then decimate the Ukrainian “offensive” with artillery once they come out onto the steppe. 1500 Ukrainian soldiers are killed and wounded, but Kiev and Washington trumpet it as a great victory against the Russians.
The cold reality is that Russia has barely committed 5% of their combat forces to the operation in Ukraine, while the Ukrainian military has been decimated, and is on its last legs.
I expect to see a major Russian offensive in the coming weeks. Mykolaiv and Kharkov are next. And since Ukraine has just sacrificed its best troops on the failed offensives, the defense will be that much easier for the Russians to penetrate.
Given the news blackout on both sides its hard access what’s happening. However there is a second larger issue that muddies our understanding of what’s happening:War is political. Although the battlefield acts on the political equation I think political concerns will ultimately dictate the conduct of war.
As far as the Russians are concerned they know that the Ukrainians aren’t their primary enemy: It’s Davos and the European Union.
If the EU and Davos are Russia’s primary enemies why not wind down the war in Ukraine? After all the Russians have already accomplished their stated goals of defending/liberating Lugansk and Donetsk.
The demilitarization and the de Nazification has also been accomplished.
Operationally the Russians will have to deal with Rasputitas or rains if they don’t wrap up operations soon. The rains will make it hard for armored vehicles to operate in Ukraine.
The Ukie’s on the other hand know that in the long run they aren’t going to win a war of attrition against Russia. The extraordinary destruction of equipment and death of personnel have probably made that clear to them.
However for various reasons the Ukie’s simply can’t sue for peace they need a win. The Deep State is also getting tired of this war they have things to take of in the States. This war faituge can be demonstrated by the stunning media silence of the Post and Times regarding this unexpected Ukrainian advance.
What better way for everyone to get what they want by allowing the Ukie’s to make some uncontested advances in the North and check them with reserve forces just in case they get any funny ideas. The Ukie’s and the Deep State get to say they’ve won a victory and “brought” the Russians to the negotiation table.
The Russians get to end this war and concentrate on their main enemy: The European Union.
Also a wildcard in all this is Zelensky he attempted to have Erdogan pass a letter onto Putin so I think there is some political impetus at the highest levels of the Ukrainian government to end the war.
Of course I could be wrong but even this scenario would be interesting because the Russian are known to have large reserves which they haven’t committed.
A basic infantry tactic is funneling your opponents into a “kill zone” where all your weapons are setup to inflict maximum damage. The Russians seem to have done this task by leaving the Ukie corridor of advance lightly guarded. This theory is supported by the fact the Russian forces were able to pull back quickly with very light casualties, as if they were expecting the Ukies to mount a large attack.
Even if the Ukie forces make if to the Russian border flank security would be a nightmare. Operationally all the Russians have to do is close the noose and the Ukie’s are gone. For all practical intents and purposes the Ukie’s are very close to being surrounded while operating deep in enemy territory.
A third option would be tying up as many Ukie units as possible in the North and then hitting the South. From an economic perspective Ukraine is screwed if they lose access to Odessa and Nikolaev.
Unfortunately the Kremlin isn’t issuing any briefings on what they are planning so we’ll see what happens.
I read that the Russian “troops” originally defending this territory were really police type units so clear that they were not prepared at all for this.
It is clear too that Russia sees the whole Ukraine situation as an existential threat. Given that, I have no real idea what constant escalation by the US / EU / UK can possibly achieve. All that western escalation and associated the war of rhetoric does is confirm the existential threat. Which must surely lead to more escalation from Russia.
The most surprising thing amidst all this is how restrained Russia has been, which seems well understood across the Global South. I can see now that Putin might finally take the gloves off. Very scary times.
The Russians are weak, limp dicks. If the Ukrainians had nukes Moscow would be history back in February. If the US was in a war with Mexico, and the Mexicans pulled a suckerpunch like that Mexico City would be a wasteland. The problem is Putin, weak,liberal, afraid of big acts. If Stalin were alive from Kiev to Krakov there would be a giant wasteland. The Russians can t get throw their heads that the Ukrainians are possessed by Bandera apirit,and they hate them with a passion,the only way for Russia to relax is to send as many Ukrainians to their idol in hell. What will Russian do with million of Banderas worshippers crack heads from Lvov? Simple,send a Avangard warhead without a nuclear load but who at 20mach gives a 2MT punch without the radiation. Bye bye Lvov. If Putin doesn t act he will be dispose off, in gruesome way I may add,and a psycho with big balls will step in and put fear in the hearts not of just the remaining Ukrainians put all of Europeans. The neocons will be shitting bricks when they will see Kiev in flames, filmed in 4K. This has to end, humanity will not end because of that corrupt shithole from eastern Europe. Send the nukes.
It seems to me we are anxious for this to be over and Odessa and Transnistria(sp?) out of the hands of the ukonazis. But……that is not the way it is being done so, patience everyone.
This was a clear escalation by US/UK one day after the meeting in Germany.
NATO weapons with NATO “ex” soldiers running rampant in Eastern Ukraine. Russia will have to escalate (what country can tolerate this a few miles from its border, imagine Spetsnaz driving T-90’s near Tijuana). They probably don’t need to use nukes but we’re getting there.
I can’t believe that we’re seriously talking about the use of tactical nuclear weapons. That would invite an equivalent response from NATO. Then strategic. The stuff of nightmares. NATO knows no reverse gear. Is this a Dien Bien Phu scenario? Eisenhower, of course, refused to use the bomb back in 1954 and the French paratroopers we’re wiped out. I can’t believe the situation deteriorated so badly within the space of a few days. If that is indeed the case, even a Russophile like myself would advise pulling out of Ukraine. The planet cannot be put at risk.
Et tu, Brute! =(
I understand where all these predictions come from. All russian’s telegram are in total hysteria. Everyone running and shouting that this is the end. Looks disgusting. But it is national tradition to to go to extremes. (Полюбить так королеву, проиграть так миллион ) Unfortunately unlike the US we (I am Russian) are not controlling press in the way we should and every correspondent can express his personal opinion but all of them forgetting to mention that it is their opinion, not the Generals.
As you mention correctly everyone was talking about this counter offensive in Kharkov region. For weeks. It is just impossible to image that it was missed. Furthermore, there are some info that all forces just packed up and left keeping only rearguard in place. There were no equipment left in massive numbers, blood stains, bodies, How is it possible in such devastating offensive? And how is it possible that trained for 8 years fresh forces were annihilated before yesterday and drafties from 5th or 6th wave mobilisation managed to overthrow russian forces. I suppose that it is not that simple.
Speaking honestly, totally agree that this war will be won or lost not on the battlefield. Actually (this is not common opinion) that we need this war to continue for at least couple months to achieve goals in EU. This could be something to keep it going, Regarding referendums …no one actually interested in Ukraine territories, we have ours to manage in vast amounts.
Regarding nukes… I don’t think it is possible in this area. It is too close to our borders and Donbass. This will be a defeat for RF, because there will ba a good question why all these young people died for if we just could nuke Kiev in the very beginning. No one will listen to explanations. So no. I dont see that. Lets wait and see.
Bad news for any civilians who remained in those areas, I’d expect the AFU’s Einsatzgruppen will be giving a lesson not to trust Russia to stick by them in rough times. This is going to be much worse than Bucha.
Stephen F. Cohen mentioning that among his contacts in Russia, many pro-western, many felt Putin was too slow and too soft. They probably used harder words, and Cohen made them presentable. However it’s not just Putin, but a significant group within the Kremlin. Speculating again, they seem to lack confidence. The SMO itself was a demonstration of a lack of confidence. If the Russian military and civilian authority had committed to have an actionable cause, they could have evacuated the republics and allowed the attack from AFU to really get rolling, then it’s no longer a politically suspect pre-emptive SMO but cause for full out war. They choose SMO thinking they could avoid a war that was unavoidable. They played to the USA’s game plan, except for the timing in the start/middle of a commodity cycle upswing. Well, let’s hope it doesn’t wind up in a nuclear war. I don’t think it will based on Russia’s reserves, but anyone watch Daniel Ellsberg’s recent interviews or who’s read Normal Accidents: by Charles Perrow or The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons by Scott Douglas Sagan knows how thin the margin is.
As a British person living in the UK I know no one who supports fighting this war against Russia. Only paid off paedophile politicians support it.
It’s as many of us feared from early in the SMO. Namely, that it was incomprehensible and hubristic of the Russian leadership to believe that they could take on the Collective West (US/NATO) in a proxy war with the fully-indoctrinated Ukrainians using minimal deployment of professional troops and weapons.
It is now safe to say that the shelling of civilians in Donbass and other Ukrainian cities “liberated” by the Russians will remain a permanent feature of the conflict however many years Russia allows it to last.
I’m also convinced that the eventual clearing of the entrenched Ukrainian forces in Donbass (if it ever happens) will not result in a major breakout Russian offensive toward the Dnieper. Instead, the same creeping pace of operations will be maintained which, as Jacob points out, only increases the chance of catastrophic outcomes for Russia and even the possibility of nuclear war.
Seems Russia underestimated the total successfully brainwashing of a whole nation beginning in primary school.
Well the US has been fully aware that they used same techniques Nazigermany used with Hitlerjugend. There are many proves even on western and American MSM before those got streamlined.
In the other hand as I have been like 10, living next to Soviet Barracks, playing soccer with Soldiers, eating from same Goulashcannon, singing same songs, I got told if I want to get stabbed I just need to call an Ukrainian a Russian. I didn’t believe, since we liked all the children of the USSR and the whole world.
So it might have been that the West used certain Ressentiments, successfully.
I think if Russia is serious in wiping out that brutal Ideology and Regime that terrorizes its people, they got to put off the silk gloves once for all.
Dreizen, as far as I can tell, the Ukrainian operation in the area is 3 brigades – 9000 men. Doesn’t seem like enough to hold onto gains, much less continue advancing or defeat counter attacks. But maybe you are right. Russia was just defeated, the war will be over and Putin will be begging for terms.
I hope you are wrong. That said, I find it really strange that the Russian commanders did’t know what a lot of bloggers suspected.
The fact that the US acting as Santa Klaus with money from the moneytree trying to buy support from a lot of European countries, plus the narrative that the Russian military is a bunch of retarded dimwits. Could it be that this all gives the West the idea that they can do what Herr H couldn’t: seize the oil and gas fields? And, couldn’t it be that Russia is aware that a hot war with Nato is unavoidable? To me it all would make sense from the US/UK point of view, plus Russia’s point of view. Better fire nukes in “self defense” than in a first strike. Either way, us Europeans are fcuked …
Just wanted to bring the attention of the audience to the following “movie”:
https://t.me/ragulinho/2263, which is basically some “snapshots” from a not-so-long life of a Ukrainian soldier. Some of the stuff in there is really rather disgusting 18+, but it is not the reason I am sharing this. The most important part, in my opinion, is how this guy walks around a village trying to find some local civilians to shoot at just because, in his opinion, they are are automatically separatists there. That seems to be a rather common attitude of such “heroes” towards the local population of Ukraine’s east.
If the nukes come will my N95 work, or should I wear 2 ?
This so-called offensive is Biden’s ploy to avoid Republican victory in November followed by his impeachment. US doesn’t care how many Ukrainians get killed as long as Biden and son have their asses covered.
So far every time Ukraine advances they get annihilated by the Russians one way or another, I don’t think this will be any different. Russia has no need to use tactical nukes, they have plenty of thermobaric weapons, artillery and CAS.
This Counteroffensive will screech to a halt just like every other one the Ukrainians have undertaken. Russia has all the time in the world to bleed these dopes white. I’d find the West using nukes first far more likely.
Perhaps a good time to ask how far forward do we need to move the hands of ‘the clock’.
Let’s not forget that “The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”
The words ‘other’ & ‘conventional’ stand out as a legal caveat.
As the concept of escalate to de-escalate hasn’t worked for either side, the scenario Dreizin paints is highly plausible.
Thus far the Ukrainians never produced anything this impressive on the entirety of the front, even when their numbers used to be bigger then they are now. On top of that they’ve frozen the front for months even though they weren’t supposed to (according to experts). So there are obvious questions that I’d like to ask.
Was the initial size of the Ukrainian army underrated? Were their actual casualties overrated? Is their ability to produce effective troops out of the recruits underrated (or, for that matter, NATOs ability in that regard)? Is this push towards Izyum in reality less of a deal than it looks on the first glance? Or is it done by someone other than the Ukrainians, such as NATO troops wearing Ukrainian insignia?
Nowhere did I see the latter possibility mentioned thus far, yet something tells me that might already be the case. The Poles come to mind.
Looks like Scott Ritter and Jacob Dreizin have swapped roles. Now it’s Ritter who is being level-headed and analytical, while Dreizin is panicking with his hair on fire. Complete reversal from the situation in May when it was Ritter who was panicked (by the Biden’s $50 billion aid and M777’s) while Dreizin was the voice of reason who said none of that means much.
Ritter says Ukrainians have achieved momentary superiority in one area, and Russians having recognized that fact have withdrawn with only small losses, allowing Ukrainians to advance deeper. He says Russians are now cutting off the Ukrainian supply lines and sending reinforcements in to crush the Ukrainian forces who are deep in Russian territory and about to be cut off. He says this offensive will fail and Russians will re-take all the territory that Ukrainians took after the Ukrainians in the cauldron are annihilated.
LOL
Might as well focus on the potential endgame of the West winning. Total victory must seriously consider total war. But I hope Russia has options short of tactical nukes.
They have the thermobarics. TOS-1A’s. Or carpet bombing,
Plus the Ukrainians are exposed to potential counter offensive tactics by Russia, as they wont quickly be heavily dug in.
Russia can still wreck the place further. Much further.
Ukraine was much too big for 100 Russian BTGs to capture and defend.
You are right…the West never seems to think things to the end. Russia isn’t just walking away.
My guess…Russia will further wreck the place. Turn off the electricity. What do air defense systems use for power. Their own generators?
i mean you have got to be kidding with this. one little push forward and everyone starts panicking lol. Give it a week and this whole Kharkov offensive will be sorted. Their big Kherson offensive failed miserably and so they pushed into a very vulnerable area, this will be the wake up call Russia needed no nukes required bro!
Looks like a wash, rinse, repeat “Princess Diana” event with the rather weird death of the Queen, except the world won’t be weeping and wailing as they did in 1997. Maybe we are all to be so distracted by this latest “tragedy” that we take our eyes off Ukraine and the unfolding economic crash. This post is truly terrifying as it looks like the West has thrown everything at Ukraine and if it’s not Russia who uses nukes then it will definitely be the Wild West that will. I am in Australia and haven’t seen any public announcements about more aid being sent to Ukraine, but then maybe we have without telling the people. zElensky has been making some outlandish statements about taking back all territory including Crimea ….. something is definitely afoot. I hope you are wrong Jacob, but fear you are right
Putin is either so delusionally moderate that he believes a negotiated settlement from hostilities will be demanded by a war weary west OR he truly is a 5G chess player that’s about to pull off a mind blowing gambit. I’m praying for a Russian win, but to me Putin appears to be out to lunch.
Jabob you pascanama ! (that’s the only Finnish word that I know and it’s probably spelled extremely wrong but I don’t give A rats ass! ) I am already extremely stressed out with family health emergencies and this is the last kinda news I need being stuck in a large Canadian city far away like 3000 miles from home and you lay this on me. I hate you. I truly hate you but I will still read your stupid frickin blog.
Tactical Nukes? Not impossible, but I reckon improbable. The Ukrainians are no push overs, they have hit the Russians hard, the next few days will show if they can sustain it. If history has thought us any lesson it is to be wary of Russians retreating quickly, they can be sloppy, but they are not stupid.
As you are fond of saying Jacob “a day late and a dollar short”. I think that is how you will end up writing about this counter offensive.
Lol … I see what you did there, Jacob. Well played. 😛
Jacob is sick and tired of the Ukraine warporn junkies. I’d say he sent a good few of them packing this morning LoL …
Hi jacob theres no chance of nuks, 1st the russians wouldn’t do that over a border skirmish, in fact it would cause outrage, a call for full militarisation, with masses of volunteers , does the west want that ? 2 this ukr army is around 10,000 , as you said designed for lighting raids , whats it gonna do in russia other than PR ? and if that did happened and russia used nuks how would that benefit the west ? as for Izium i hope your wrong as this shit will never end but i recon its like the battle of the bulge hit the weak spot, make big gains, nearly brake the line, then the planes, missiles and drones find them, game over. Izium won’t fall
That’s what I was gonna say.
“Although Russian losses have so far been surprisingly light, the Ukrainian offensive has more-or-less taken the road east to Kupiansk and thus cut off the entire Russian army group in Izium to the south…..”
“Nuts.”
i said a few weeks after Putin announced this operation that the major blunder could turn out to be that Putin wasnt waging a real war and his go slow approach was inherent with dangers, especially the longer this lasts.
the Russian military being surprised like this is unfathomable, since they must be observing every movement that is going on…..
of course i have no idea what is really going on or what will happen…..but once you gain absolute superiority on land and in the air….these type of events and the people inside the country orchestrating them simply should not exist…
What? Huh? Nukes? A more calm report of this event is Alexander Mercouris’ latest video on the Duran Locals, “Russia Moves Reinforcements to Kharkov Region to Counter Ukraine Balakliye Offensive”. He also acknowledges many of the concerns stated in this latest Dreizen report but reminds us that this war is fluid and the skilled Russian army is now moving to the area that was being defended only by a militia who were later rescued by Russian paratroopers. Ukraine, however, has won a boosted morale victory. The doom and gloom aspects of this report may have been written in haste.
It’s too soon to say if this is a US-Ukronazi victory or a defeat.
Whatever happened to good old fashion carpet bombing by a Russian version of B-52 bombers?
There are too many friendly civilians in the area. Also, I think the Ukrainians would be traveling with AA cover, e.g., Buk missiles. The last thing that is needed now is for a few Tu-160s to be shot down.
Lol…Jacob
Get off the ledge, you just made my day : )
Funny as
I don’t know anything about war or nuclear tactics. But if any side nukes an area would that not stop all future use of that area regarding movements or advancements? I would think the morale of troops that need to traverse the area would be low and they would question the leadership skills of their superiors, because if they learn they have been exposed to radioactivity like Cesium that can be affect reproduction then can morale get any lower? This sucks! I wonder if, here in the USA, no one voted for incumbents that the dep-stAtte could not survive more than 5 or 6 election cycles (I know, dream on because most folks are brain washed regarding the DS and permanent government).
Hello, thanks but I’m talking about very low-yield nuclear devices, the radiation would be inconsequential unless you are right there when it happens, in which case, you’re probably dead anyway.
I thought you said this war was over a month ago. I thought you scoffed at the Himars. I thought all that donated equipment didn’t mean anything.
What happened?
Hey dumbass, maybe you have a listening comprehension problem. I was clearly talking about the 4 (four) himars that Uncle Sam sent in early June. Since then, about another 30 were sent. But, it’s still not a superweapon, there is no single “game changer” other than trained manpower.
As for the war being “over”, I said the outcome is obvious (it’s still obvious) and I no longer want to cater to the 24/7 war crowd, who are a bunch of freakazoids. I do still write about it if something big happens. But not enough to make some of those people happy, just can’t do that anymore.
Aesops fox and the grapes (just like Zaz NPP, Azov prison, even Donezk… the Ukros kust can’t stop showing the stupidity to use any chance to kill ethnic Russian UKRAINIAN citizens, that already changes the view of some… Bucha maybe not what we thought? O.o ).
For me It is a Ru trap to pull UA forces from Kharkov.
It will be kinda medieval battle aka butchery and they won’t have to do in in Kharkov.
Even because some pro Ru commentators have been panicking. Feel like that is part of the show.
If that is true, Gosh vicious thing, the Russians really know the biz to do wars! Let’s hope they spare us this time, even if we deserve…
Isn’t it beautiful for the US, UK to have an army that isn’t their own that’s willing to try anything and everything that their commanders think of. It is a total FREEROLL for the west, with the exception of a couple instructors on the ground that might get killed. Why are the Ukrainians so stupid and why do they not realize that there is no bright future and if they keep doing the same thing it’s going to keep getting worse? I think Dreizin is right here, at least in principle, if they (US, UK) keep escalating then eventually the nukes will fly.
My neighbour here in the UK described it to me as a “playground” for them. That is exactly what it is for the US / UK / NATO.
Agree with an earlier comment that people in the UK typically do not support the war in any meaningful sense. The media and government are in propaganda overload but they know how shallow mass “support” really is.
Truss announced massive subsidies of energy prices this week (funded by printing money) because they are desperate to keep the war going but realize that any domestic hardship that can be traced to it will create mega drama. They hope (and are probably right) that everyone is too dumb to link inflation and higher taxes to the war.
Close to me there’s a nuclear power plant. Very easy to sabotage and if so a small country will disapear out the map and big regions of other 3 countries around will be contaminated too. Why use tactical nukes in ukraine of we can do it in central Europe?
Black pill city. Thanks for the harsh words and shocking analysis. Strong medicine.
I struggle to find a sense to this post.
Nuclear weapons because Ukrainian managed to advance in Karkov region? With 10000 troops? Really? For what?In order to avoid the evacuation of Izium? Karkov region looks to me a honeypot for Ukrainian troops, they managed to advance further till the border with Russia few months ago, so what?
And also if you want to escalate there are some steps between missiles and nukes, what about thermobarics? In the (very) worst scenario the Ukrainians will manage to breaktrhough and reinforce the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk defenses. Well, it’s a set-back but the big-picture is not changed and this crisis won’t be solved on the battlefield anyway. Moreover, I didn’t get why after the loss of Izium (eventually) Donetsk is at more risk to be shelled. The shelling comes from some places south of Sloviank-Kramatorsk that now are progressivly being cleaned up by DPR militia for what I know. And why Donetsk should be without water for the loss of Izium? That would imply that since 2015 and to 2022 the city has been without water.
Hello. The Ukr side allowed water from Slaviansk area canals to reach Donetsk prior to February 24, 2022. Don’t speak if you don’t know.
I don’t get it sorry. Even if Ukrainian army takes control of Izium, the territory occupied by Donbass militia would be larger than that controlled from 2015 to one month ago. So why they didn’t have problems with water supply before and instead now they will have. Maybe u could elaborate more on that.
Thank you
I have no military insight to speak of but I’ll chime in with my 2 cents worth anyway. I have two points to pose: 1. If you wanted to guide your enemy to where you want them to be then you’d make that location your weakest defensive line in the hope your enemy takes the bait and goes there. 2. Russia hasn’t used much of its military capability in this campaign so far, holding most of its best troops and equipment back. Could they not counter attack with overwhelming force and bring in their airforce for a large scale air assault which they haven’t done so far in this war to quickly snuff out this Ukrainian attack? They could also attack all the command and control centres in Ukraine and even some NATO ones outside of Ukraine with hypersonic missiles which can’t be defended against. Russia still has a serious escalatory capacity they haven’t yet drawn upon.
I think Jason is spot on. It appears it is not trap. The Russians left Kharkov undefended and has lost most of Kharkov in a few days. It’s difficult to predict what will happen next
A classic line in a movie, “Russians never do anything without a plan.” The last I read the Ukraine has no airforce. Russia has been very reserved but perhaps the gloves come off since the Ukraines have gathered together. I cant imagine Russian satellites not detecting all this movement. Therefore I agree carpet bombing is next and soon. But we will see.
I get the quesy feeling that we’re watching a real-world replay of the Oilers-Bills 1993 playoff game…and we’re halfway into the 3rd quarter.
Russia has no need to use nuclear weapons, and they won’t.
As lumbering and clumsy as the Russian Army often is, the maths still weigh heavily against Ukraine. Militarily, the Russians cannot lose.
Politically OTOH, Russia leaving Kharviv territory virtually undefended (whether by design as a trap or for want of manpower) is a huge bloody nose. You are right that civilians in Russian-held territories are justifiably scared and distrustful of Russian protection.
Putin and Shoigu went into this depending on the DPR/LPR militias and the Wagner ‘musicians” to do the bulk of the grunt work. Apart from a few airborne and spetznaz units, the bulk of Russian infantry in Ukraine is just Rosgvardia territorial guard troops. Not exactly the 2nd Shock Army or anything like it.
Russia is at a crossroads, but the nuclear path is not needed. The Russians have a great opportunity here. The Ukes have shot their wad in NATO-supplied aircraft, armor, and transport with no more left to send. The recent Uke banzai-charge offensives will stall at great cost. The UAF are being reduced to a Napoleonic infantry force.
God only knows what Russia will actually do now, but they would be amned fools not to see the opportunity for a knockout here. Even allowing that Shoigu and Putin are both basically burocrats, Gen. Gerasimov is a pro and has no doubt givien them a SITREP pointing out this golden opportunity.
Hopefully the Kremlin will finally decide to just get it over with and steamroll the Ukes before the weather changes. Yes, this will require a partial mobilization, but it is possible.
Do you think perhaps Belarus’ recent exercises are a “don’t even think about it” message to NATO to free up a few Guards Armored Divisions for a decisive maneuver offensive before the weather changes?
Important to remember that even just accepting humanitarian aid from russians is enough to be considered a collaborator by many banderites.
That was quite a stupid article. The quality of this blogs is going from bad to worse (((
Drei – I thought the war had already been won monthes ago and was not worthy of continuous consideration? And I thought that the Uke army had been successfully decimated and most of the supplies were either dysfunctional, interrupted or too technical to be operative in the field on short notice? I guess all these assumptions were wrong now and I am wondering about the source of said assumptions. This raises doubt about ‘variant X’ and mass starvation that are destined down the pike over the next 4 months. The juice is slow kill, I doubt there is any rapid die-off as that is not the design. The method is to murder without discovery over time. The vote count in U.S. is almost entirely controlled via the back of the machines so these clown dictators have plenty of time and will take it.
So you’re saying Russia cannot defeat a force of 9-11 thousand men with conventional forces.
You are beyond stupid.
My main claim to ‘expertise’ is that I was married to a Russian for 20+ years. Based on that experience I believe they would burn everything rather than back down. I expect the Ukrainians are the same. To answer your question, as a Brit I think our leaders are focused on ‘winning’ and not understanding how the insanity and destruction will just keep turning up and up.
Russia won’t be the first one to use nukes in Ukraine, unless NATO countries send their troops in mass. Russians are always slow to adapt to the current war — there is a lot of inertia in Russian Army, and a lot of corruption and nepotism, making any systemic changes harder. Given enough time they will — they have all the necessary resources in their possession and enough strategic depth to allow for many mistakes in the meanwhile. Still, what happened here is another debacle, similar to the withdraw of forces from north-east, large and unnecessary casualties in the “first phase”, sinking of Moskva etc. And again, they treat the Populus as simpletons, with their imbecilic excuses. What is worse, even some of the smarter people buy into it, like Moon of Alabama, for example. But I doubt many Russians will be happy with what happened, with the “deal as usual” approach coming from the government, and “it was our smart plan all along” approach from the MoD. At least I’m happy Jacob isn’t buying into that BS. The real disaster is not the military side of it, but the humanitarian side. Russia made it clear Ukrainian Army is full of Russia-hating Nazis, and yet they “redeploy forces” to protect people of Donbass, while abandoning ethnically Russian people of Kharkov region.
Jacob your comment on Scott Ritter was LOL.
I’m an older person and not very familiar with new phrases, if you will.
Does it mean :”Laughing out loud?” If it does, could you explain to somebody who is not very well versed in the war theme? Especially in Ukraine war.Everybody says Russia plays chess not checkers.Everybody says that Russia is not counting the time but the progress. I think many people would say looking back in the war history that Russia never lost any wars and was always ready for the long war where she actually excelled.If that is so, what does one battle means in the scope of the whole war?
Thank you kindly in advance.
The UK has its WMD based in the Clyde West Coast of Scotland. Scotland is controlled by the City of London. The people of Scotland, England, Wales & NI will not be consulted in any way shape or form the direction the UK gov want to take this war. See the size of the anti-war protest when Blair & Bush threated Iraq, did it make any difference, NO but Blair got Knighted to Sir Tony of the garter the highest of the high 🙂
There will be no use of tactical nukes by Russia. For what ? It is never explained. To limit losses. What losses. This is a minor win for Ukraine. It was necessary for the cameras and to keep the funds coming in because people were starting to have doubts. I guess Ukraine finally managed a win since their last one back in 2014 against civvies in Donbas. Their larger recent counter offensive in Kherson was a flop which for some reason was not mentioned here. Did it not happen or did the people i listen to imagine it.
This ‘win; is not going to change the course of the conflict. How well can the Uki’s hold what they got and advance. Yeah, that is what they will have to do without any air support and the Russians picking them out and not running out of ammo or men any time soon.
The Russian threat of nukes was to keep NATO out, it was successful and still holds. NATO are not going to mess with that because they are shit scared where it will lead. This is the only time nukes by Russia can be considered.
It “for some reason was not mentioned here” because I also cover other topics, and because I only post once a week nowadays, as I realized I have three kids, a day job, and a bunch of rental properties, not to mention I’ve been 100% demonetized, so I have no incentive to provide you with free 24/7 infotainment. If you’ve been reading me long enough and watching all my videos, you know all of that very well.
Other than that, your comment is pretty good.
There is a puzzle i’ve been trying to solve since this conflict began. The US sees it as beneficial to group Russia & China into one entity. Strategically, this is the US doing to itself what Nixon did to the Soviets when he visited China. Makes no sense.
Something you said in an interview back in May to some Canadians allows to better understand this puzzle. The key is post cold war, US & EU interest in Russia changed from adversarial to colonial. I like this line you used. Imagine Russia like Africa before colonialism. Large territory, rich in resources, ripe for the taking. Except there is this one problem. That man who stopped the looting of Russia by the west. But that man cannot stay in office forever so prep a source of instability and hope that his successor will miscalculate. Well, that instability is being taken care of.
Ukraine will not in our lifetimes be a threat to Russia because you said their unique Soviet NATO hybrid military is going away. That is what the US did to the Iraqi army. Who likewise will never be a threat to their southern gulf neighbours either. In that sense i see this war as similar in intent.
Indeed, if one wants to tactical sarmat someone to end this war it would be more logical to go lets say for London. Smaller area, higher density of dudes /w power per squaremeter as in the giant Ukraine. Lights out, Game over.
Purely for the financial impact on world and western economies tho, esp since “new world” goes multilateral.. not even for Lizz, she is of little moment, absolutely unimportant. Stumbling Brandon would pull himself out of the game immediately, pretending to be dement, shaking hands with imaginary friends.
Idiotic comment. Yeah, it’s much “more logical” to start WW3 by nuking London.
How old are you?
Russia is limited by its own self imposed rules of engagement. They are doing the bare minimum to make progress but where is matters i.e around Donetsk where they want to get behind the Ukraine lines they are making progress. The south has been stabilised to a degree. I would expect to see after the capture of the area west of the city of Donetsk which is to essentially prevent the city itself from being constantly bombed, after that the Russians will continue expanding in the region. When the objectives there have been achieved they will go back north and re take the areas recently lost. However the biggest factor driving this war is the approach of winter. You cannot hide steam and smoke rising into the air very easily and this will give away troop and vehicle positions. Satellites cant see through heavy cloud and rain. Europe is hanging on a thread, Germany Is in big trouble and is hoping to push the war as far as possible before winter comes. If Germany has a big economic crisis, as it seems to be heading that way, it will collapse economies around it like dominos. UK is no better position. So Russia will wait and see what winter brings before using tactical nukes. What I suspect we will see is more and more infrastructure taken out, so much so that Ukraine wont have electricity, no running water and no internet. No radio and no TV. Lastly Russia would be thinking of targeting petrol /gas filling stations, nothing like walking across Ukraine to get to the front line.
Absolutely agree on what you said about the living situation in the upcoming winter. I also expect massive destruction of Ukrainian power grid. They will go and chop woods to survive just as the from cynical politicians called “basement rats” in Donezk and Luhansk.
Situation in Kherson seems stabilized, have seen clumsy tries to attack ifv running over own men cos the driver has been obviously overwhelmed by the tech he operates. It almost looks as if the Russians (evil if, ofc) got rid of some land and people they don’t have to feed through the winter but the Ukrainians have to pay and feed them from now on that will stretch (military, logistical, humanitarian, financial, civil …) abilities.
Money hard to get from western sponsors with own massive problems that have been predictable if one knows basic stuff about markets, goods and prices.
Every day the conflict lasts longer, is a good day for Russia, any how the West tries to put it… it is not Russia that is in another Afghanistan, we just don’t want to see it for now.