Another special “hello” to those of my readers who said I was delusional yesterday…..
…..and to Martyanov and Larry Johnson and the “New Atlas” guy and all the other blind and illiterate alt-pundits who BS’ed you or else just fell silent in recent days (for those who follow that stuff, probably not my original GOP list readers.)
The U.S./Ukrainian offensive has taken most of Kupiansk almost without a fight, and the Russian army group in Izium is being evacuated, leaving behind thousands of tons of gear and ammo.
Again, this is due to Putin’s “political” strategy of trying to fight a big war (against the U.S. hegemonic bloc, the entire West) without raising sufficient manpower, not calling up the reserves so as to leave Russia’s population in peacetime mode.
The “whack a mole” approach of trying to guess the direction of the Ukrainian offensive in the north (given insufficient forces to man the line) has failed utterly. If you don’t like it, don’t blame me.
It’s not necessarily a huge “military” loss (Russian casualties so far have been VERY low, but we’ll see how much gear they must leave behind) but it is a huge political loss for Putin and for all Russian Ukrainians who trusted that Russia is “here to stay.”
Thousands if not tens of thousands of refugees fleeing Kharkov region would beg to differ.
Of course, the first thing the Ukrainian forces do for their cameras (after raising their flag) is arrest and brutalize all “collaborators”—not bring in food trucks or do anything positive, but arrests and repression.
We’ll see how far this goes, but the summer’s Russian gains in western Lugansk (the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk agglomeration) are now potentially in jeopardy. Ukrainian offensive manpower is not in fact so great (just a few brigades), but a rout is a rout, so we’ll see how this goes.
The Ukraine has plenty of low-quality “cannon fodder” to occupy rear areas, while the competent (U.S./UK-trained, armed, and directed) forces will continue to advance if they are able.
(And, Russia was planning to advance and thus has no real defensive lines in western Lugansk.)
North of Kupiansk, it’s likely Russia will have to retreat almost all the way to its own border (although if Uncle Sam tells his dogs, “feel free to cross the border“, anything is possible.)
However, the biggest threat to the Russian effort is that Uncle Sam and his coalition have smelled blood, they now perceive the prospect of victory and they will pour EVERYTHING into the Ukraine, probably including Patriot missiles or even F-16s, in the coming months. I mean, why not?
This is likely to lead to a “scorched earth” war and the total destruction of the Ukraine.
Because, Russia has a number of backstops. Low-yield, tactical nukes are a backstop, and the U.S. can’t do squat other than escalate all the way to nuclear war. I mean, they’ve run out of Russian billionaire yachts to steal, what else can they do?
Likewise, sending tens of cruise missiles to knock out electricity across the Ukraine—perhaps in the dead of winter—is another backstop. A modern army can only fight for so long with no juice.
I (wrongly) figured that could or would happen on day one, but evidently the concern was that the Ukraine would reciprocate by laying waste to Donetsk city infrastructure, which was basically in the palm of their hand as of February, and is still highly vulnerable.
However, as of now, both sides are targeting each other’s hospitals, hoping to kill wounded soldiers (hospitals in Donetsk and Kharkov were struck in the last 24 hours.) So, I don’t think Russia is that far away from turning the lights off.
In which case, no volume of arms and no sum of money from Uncle Sam is going to help, LOL. But, of course, it was never about saving the Ukraine from destruction, it was always only about tying down and “weakening” Russia.
As I wrote a bunch of times in February and March, if they have to turn the Ukraine (with all its nuclear power plants) into Afghanistan or Somalia, to spite Russia and keep the U.S. military-industrial complex in the bonbons, they will do it.
*******As I wrote then, there is no way Russian can “lose” (unless Putin loses his nerve or has a stroke or something), because for Russia this is existential and Russia is right there, not to mention it has all the gas. It’s just a question of, HOW FAR THIS ESCALATES.*******
So, we’ll see how strong Putin’s unit is screwed on.
Again, as I’ve been saying for a while, this thing will be decided by non-tactical, “off-the-battlefield” factors.
If/when Putin decides to finally stop playing Uncle Sam’s “incremental escalation” game, that’s when this will be on the way to being over.
A Primer on “Variant X” for New Readers
I’ve had a wave of new subscribers to the mailing list recently. Thanks for everyone’s interest.
If you’re coming from one of the 24/7 “war war war” channels (what will they do when the war ends?), and you don’t want to hear anything at all about U.S. politics or how the vakseenz wreck your immunity to the korona…..
…..then I don’t want you, please unsubscribe now. I am not the War Show, please move on.
One reader told me I need to cover the war exclusively because that’s all that matters. No, you fool, the number one issue is what’s been done with the vakseenz.
If you’re following people who don’t touch that topic, you’re being duped by “businessmen” who make ad bucks by pumping a hot but “easy” topic (or topics) to avoid censorship. As for me, this isn’t my day job, I’ve already been demonetized everywhere, I don’t care, and I talk and write about anything that matters.
I’m a hermit, but I still know at least two vakksed guys (probably both of them boosstted or even doubled-boossted) who took weeks to fully recover from one of these “weaker” korona strains that are going around now.
Almost all of my readers know someone (or many people) like that. A lot of these people have to go to the doctor for steroids or Paxlovid. What the hell was the point of getting vakksed?
Meanwhile, most of the unvakksed are now barely even noticing if/when they catch it. Maybe just some sniffles.
Maybe these unvakksed were in close contact with someone (e.g. a family member) who tested positive, but they feel good enough that there’s no point even thinking about it.
Isn’t it funny how the various U.S. states and other jurisdictions long ago stopped reporting as to “XX percent of our korona inpatients are unvakksed”?
That’s because their numbers went the “wrong” way, LOL. It’s literally a panndemmyk of the vakksinnayted, now.
But what happens if/when the korona follows the flu’s “cyclical” or “oscillating” trajectory, and spits out a more severe strain, comparable to or worse than the original version?
What happens is, hundreds of millions of vakksinayted worldwide will get quite ill, and many millions will die. And, as the thing will likely also be much more contagious than the original (as per trend), there will be no hiding from it, it will shut down everything.
That is, everything in the countries that went with the emmarrennay, so-called “vakkseenz.” I don’t know, but probably Russia with its DNA so-called vakkseen (and low vakks and very low boossting rates) will do much better.
This is all just common sense, based on observable facts in my own experience. There is nothing particularly “scientific” in my argument, there doesn’t need to be.
If you have a problem with me speaking on this matter without a brain surgery degree, get the hell off my blog. Don’t ask me for weblinks to “prove my case”, just go.
I don’t have to be the resident general practitioner on CNN (yeah, a real vyrus expert!!!) to see patterns and trends.
Why The GOP Stood Down This Year
Upon reflection, I understand why Republicans have evidently DECIDED AND RESOLVED to throw the 2022 midterm election.
I couldn’t grasp why they’ve refused to come out with nationwide “branding” or any coherent campaign against the Democrat disaster machine…..
But if you consider they understand as well as you and I do, that there’s no solving anything, and all we can do is just survive through it… Well, why bother?
Why promise anything, or set any expectations? Might as well let the Democrats own it 100 percent, go to sleep, pick up a few seats by default, and just bide time.
If that’s the case, can’t say I blame them. It’s the most logical course.
Only, I’m afraid they may not have much of a Federal government to rule over, on the other side of their nap.
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