This will be mostly about U.S. party politics as they relate to foreign policy (e.g., Ukraine) and other disasters.
But first, leading into that, a little about the U.S. infospace.
Remember, in early September, I told you there was a likelihood that Russia, on the back foot at the time…..
…..(but no longer, i.e. despite the Ukrainian offensive “approved narrative” that you see everywhere, that side has barely gained an inch in WEEKS)…..
….Would use either (A) tactical nuclear weapons, or (B) otherwise proceed to “change the rules”…..
…..by de-communizing / de-Russifying (destroying, LOL) the Ukraine’s Soviet-era electrical grid…..
…..thus eliminating the Ukraine’s ability to wage modern warfare.
What happened?
(B) happened, or rather, is ongoing. It’s a surgical process. The Soviet grid is MASSIVELY redundant, resilient.
Should be done within a month at the outside.
Although (A) did not happen…..
…..U.S. officials and the MSM began hyperventilating about “Putin’s nuclear threats”—he actually made no such threats, perhaps they were reading the Dreizin Report, LOL—in late September…..
…..Whereas I had brought the matter to your attention, WEEKS prior.
OK, that’s why you read me.
I am MILES ahead.
Now, about (B). I’ve been covering this one for a while.
(One of the biggest things I got wrong on this blog, was thinking Russia would turn off the lights and communications on day one. Instead, Putin pussyfooted around, and is only getting to it now. But, it’s clear now, it was just a matter of time, one day or nine months, who cares? History books won’t notice the difference. As I wrote back in February, the USA literally CANNOT win this… unless “winning” means turning some rump part of the Ukraine into a “still resisting” Somalia, with millions fled, millions dead, nuclear power plants melted down, a huge burden on Europe in every which way… and obviously no NATO membership, LOL. Anyone who thought otherwise, who saw “Russian weakness” rather than Putin’s “Michael Corleone”-level patience… and who needed some two-bit, part-time, demonetized blogger to tell them this… really needs to get the “Ghost of Kiev” out of their ass.)
The Amazon Post only really woke up to (B), just some days ago.
They are not YET talking about “genocide.”
They will be.
Why are they waking up to (B) so slowly?
Simple!
Being good journalists in our shining beacon of a democracy…..
…..they all follow Uncle Sam’s cue…..
And Uncle Sam has not yet decided, what to do.
The Ukraine is screaming for more air defenses to protect its infrastructure…..
….but that stuff is EXPENSIVE, and hard to replace, and will be needed for Taiwan…..
…..and, it would require U.S. specialists on the ground, to put it together into a coherent integrated whole…..
…..and it may be too late, anyway…..
….and Uncle Sam, having already cleared out the bottom shelves, or moving in that direction…..
…..does NOT want to reach for the top shelf, just yet.
But hey, when it becomes GENOCIDE, ya gotta do something (remember Somalia, Bosnia?)
The bought-and-paid for thinktanks of the military-industrial complex…..
…..and the most “hawkish” members of Congress…..
…..will be SCREAMING at Brandon’s people to take it to the next level, every which way.
Perhaps, demanding a “no-fly zone” over northwestern Ukraine, enforced by U.S. Patriot missile batteries already on the ground at the big logistical base at Rzeszow airfield, Poland.
Really, it could be anything.
FOR NOW, BrandonLand is sitting on it.
(Well, they’ve reportedly just started the process of retrofitting (in Poland) the Ukraine’s very few remaining combat planes with British air-launched cruise missiles with a range of 250 to 500 kilometers, depending on the variant, the latter being far enough to reach strategic airfields and nuclear weapons sites in the vicinity of Moscow from deep inside Ukrainian airspace. But there’s so few aircraft left, that’s probably not a “game changer”… more like one of those freaky one-offs they like to pull.)
I think they will be MUCH more motivated, after the midterms.
At this time, our Ukraine “discussion” is in a lull, stagnating.
I think they are waiting to see how the midterms go.
Not even getting into control of Congress (where vote frawd can play a much greater role)…..
…..It’s now clear that Democrats will be utterly DESTROYED in state and local (at a minimum) races nationwide.
When they see it, they will realize, foreign escalation is their “only hope.”
2020 = 2023
2023 will be another 2020, one way or another.
Probably, Republicans will take the U.S. House at least, by a good margin.
(If a bunch of close races are still up in the air at midnight, the Dems will do their thing and it will be a cluster. Then, all bets are off.)
And yet, Republicans can forget about moving their “agenda.”
Just like Pelosi going to Taiwan for no clear reason, the Democrats will provoke every possible crisis they can think of.
I’ve already said they will provoke all possible negative developments in the Ukraine…..
…..up to and including expanding the number of countries in the war (e.g., adding Poland to the mix)…..
…..and blowing up more Russian infrastructure (I mean, why stop now?), to potentially provoke a response with non-conventional means or weapons.
Of course, they will further provoke China. That’s a given. You don’t need ME to tell you that.
Republicans, including “reliable conservative” Senator Hawley, are lining up to provide Taiwan…..
…..which owns OVER A QUARTER TRILLION DOLLARS of U.S. Government debt…..
…..with at least $2 billion in military financing per year.
But, Democrats will likely draw them out even further.
Sure, Uncle Sam is distracted with Russia, but there are already U.S. “instructors” in Taiwan, and a permanent base might be next.
BrandonLand has a walking corpse at the helm, their ridiculous “vice” is in hiding (or it’s so bad, she gets around but the MSM doesn’t cover it.)
High gas prices will come back soon, mortgages are unaffordable, nothing is getting better.
Will they just roll over quietly?
They will wag the dog.
Democrats will also run as fast, as far as possible with any resurgence of the korona.
And that’s not even getting into Variant X (the pandemic of the mRNA vakksed-and-boosstted)…..
……which is coming at some point, no doubt about it.
Recall, Democrats tried to hype the January 6th and domestic terrorism thing, but they failed to excite the political middle.
Once the dust settled, most people just didn’t care.
EXACTLY as I predicted in January/February 2021, to my Republican mailing list at the time (for those who were with me, back then.)
I said the passions will pass, people will go back to their Netflix or whatever.
I also said any Republican who got carried away with the “another Pearl Harbor” thing (Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, and many other “sunshine patriots”)…..
…..will be feeling stoopid (and if not already holding office, unelectable) soon enough.
And, that’s come to pass.
OK, here’s the point…..
America is weird. In the UK, squalid as it is, when you really mess up, you go down to 25 or even 20 percent support.
Here, you’ll always have that 40 percent (or very close to it.)
And with Google and Facebook and the MSM, that’s all they need.
They can keep it going for another two years.
But, they will have to EXTERNALIZE what they tried to pull off with the “another Pearl Harbor” (or “worse than 9/11”) scam.
Domestic enemies didn’t work out? OK! Try some foreign enemies!
And if the korona comes back, forget it. They will be pigs at that trough.
Republicans felt dumb standing and clapping for one T-shirt guy (Zelensky)?
Get ready to stand and clap for the Sultan of Taiwan!
Will the GOP be smart (or fed up) enough to stand up and say…..
“Look, we don’t like these baddie countries, and we don’t like the new variants going around, whatever, but this is a scam and we’re not going to play it anymore, to hell with this crap.”
What do YOU think? LOL.
They will be led by the nose, as always. To the disappointment of their hard base.
I mean, look at the leadership.
You think Kevin “deer in the headlights” McCarthy…..
…..and Mitch “the Manchurian Turtle” McConnell…..
…..are going to contest any narrative?
They’ve never done before, why start now?
“Let me be clear” like Obama…..
THERE WILL BE NO REPUBLICAN AGENDA MOVING UNDER THE CURRENT “LEADERSHIP.”
THEY WILL GET ROLLED.
THEY MAY BE GOOD AT HERDING THEIR OWN CATS. BUT THEY ARE TIMID AND WEAK, AND THEY CANNOT GO UP HARD AGAINST THE MSM OR THE NARRATIVE.
THEY WILL ALLOW THEMSELVES TO GET DISTRACTED AND ROLLED BY WAG-THE-DOG BULLSHIT AND WHATEVER NEW EMERGENCY COMES ALONG.
THEY WILL GET NOTHING DONE OF ANY SUBSTANCE, THEY WILL BACK DOWN AT EVERY OPPORTUNITY.
NOTHING (BESIDES MORE DEMOCRAT-LED PORK SPENDING) WILL GET DONE UNDER THESE TWO.
MSM Still Obsessed, Still Deflecting
Check out the below NY Times cover, from this past Friday.
It has TWO “above the fold” pieces on the Ukraine or Russia.
There’s nothing “above the fold” here regarding midterm polling or tough races, LOL.
I guess they have nothing “good” to write about that, to make their core readership happy.
The funniest thing here, there’s no cover story that relates to this photo of a Ukrainian soldier giving out candy.
It’s like, this is the story itself, no text, just a Ukrainian soldier handing out candy.
Of course, they neglect to mention that Russia has brought in many thousands of trucks (including semi’s with trailers) and distributed hundreds of thousands of tons of actual, real food…..
…..as well as water bottles, soap, hygiene kits, and other goods.
(Below is one scene, out of thousands of similar scenes over the last eight months.)
Naturally, Russia SEVERELY disrupted the economy when it went in, so it HAS to feed people in its areas of control…..
…..whereas Saint Zelensky couldn’t give a crap.
What’s he doing for “liberated” areas, have you seen it? How much U.S. aid is going to that?
Like, none?
$60-some billion and counting, all they could buy is one piece of candy for this photo-op.
The Ukraine can just hand out a few pieces of candy to “liberated areas starved and brutalized by Russia”…..
…..and it’s a news story, LOL.
Hey, it beats covering the midterms! Or, “where’s Kamala?“
Zero Hedge Obviously Reads Me
Yeah, they’re on my mailing list…..
…..and just a few days after I ran that Terminator 2 “playground scene”, they ran this:
Coincidence? LOL. How often do you see this?
Of course, they will NEVER re-post any of my work, like they do with “safe” bloggers (some of whom are totally clueless.)
They’re bringing in $$$ millions…..
…..(yes, the anonymous owner/boss, Dan Ivandjiiski, has netted many $$$ millions from his site, and reportedly lives like Beverly Hills)…..
…..with their ads for Wall Street money managers, trading platforms, golf carts, etc…..
…..and they were famously put on notice by Google already…..
…..and I’m evidently RADIOACTIVE.
Oh, well. I’ll accept this indirect flattery, any day of the week!
Thanks, guys!
Go fuck yourselves!
In A Hotel Lobby, Durham, North Carolina
See below. The “caption” on the sculpture (may be hard to make out from your smartphone) reads “Police State.”
LOL.
What’s Trump doing here, who never got along with his “police”, who was sabotaged and spied on by them?
Sounds like some “projection”, no?
Based on a detailed account from the person who sent this to me, it seems to be a black-owned hotel, so you can assume they are Democrats.
And the MSM says Republicans are not reality-based, LOL.
More “Tulsi”
The below text is from a loyal reader.
I can’t vouch for it, but it sounds credible…..
Gabbard is so “hot”, that for pre-televised interviews she has “conditions”. Those consist of slightly soft focus to settings pre-provided, angle of lighting, again pre-provided and especially camera angles, viewing her from her left side, so as to not highlight the Chinese Checker-depth acne vulgaris scars very pronounce on her right cheek.
How do I know this? One of my brother in laws works for CBS in its production department, and has first hand knowledge of these pre-interview requirements of the vapid, anything but “conservative” Tulsi Gabbard.
Democracy Strikes Again!
This is a Taboo Topic, so anyone from RINO/Fredocon or MSM outlets who still reads me…..
…..please put on a helmet to equalize pressure so your head doesn’t explode.
I guess it wasn’t bad enough that the Ukraine has imprisoned thousands of opposition/independent journalists and activists and other “suspected disloyals”…..
…..as well as thousands more ordinary teachers, cops, etc., who had “worked with Russia” in areas recently “liberated” by the Ukraine.
It wasn’t enough, so the Ukraine Security Service continues its recent (since roughly a month ago) campaign…..
…..of “evidence gathering” raids against temples and offices of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate.)
That is, those parishes that chose to remain under the Russian church, rather than follow President Poroshenko’s “autocephalous” Ukrainian church initiative.
The Ukrainian affiliate of the Moscow Patriarchate absolutely did not and does not support Russia in the war…..
…..but now that’s not good enough, the authorities need it gone entirely.
Can’t have any Ukrainian clerics reporting to anyone in Moscow!
And, those clerics have come out with too much rhetoric about how the war must stop… because it’s a war between BROTHERS.
Of course, the Ukraine understands that the local wing of the Moscow Patriarchate…..
…..despite fake government statistics about congregant size, still the LARGEST religious organization in the Ukraine, by numbers of priests, parishes, monasteries…..
…..will be one pillar of cultural and political reconciliation and reunification of Ukrainians and Russians…..
…..when the Ukraine (as we know it) is liquidated.
And we can’t have that!
(This reconciliation is inconceivable to your average American MSM-oriented airhead. I’m sure there’s a few people reading me now, whose heads are exploding.)
So, got to build some case for treason. Or at least, intimidate them a little.
Democracy strikes again!
Just A Reminder to Plan Your Life With This In Mind
In recent posts, I wrote that Uncle Sam and the Eurocrats have made clear, they CANNOT lose the Ukraine war.
When you can’t lose, and things are not going your way, you will eventually escalate (some of which we’ve seen already), and ultimately you will do ANYTHING and EVERYTHING.
It’s like a chump who’s losing at the Vegas slots, but he can’t stop, he has to play all his quarters.
Same with Taiwan.
As the sole “hyperpower”, Uncle Sam doesn’t negotiate with scum, full stop, he won’t stoop to make concessions to Russia or China, full stop.
He can’t lose face, or the Hegemony comes down.
It would be like a mob boss having a stroke, or “Akela missed his mark” from The Jungle Book.
Thus, at some point, unless something else brings down the house first, there will be a direct military confrontation between the USA and China and/or Russia…..
…..involving tactical nuclear weapons at a minimum…..
…..which WON’T go well, because the U.S. military DOES NOT want to fight…..
…..and the U.S. public (after Iraq) is NOT prepared for casualties…..
…..and is only superficially supportive, and is NOT willing to pay in ANY way.
Barring some other huge crisis that obviates the Ukraine and/or Taiwan…..
…..what I’ve just laid out is GUARANTEED to happen, just as World War One was guaranteed to happen.
Plan your life accordingly.
Reminder
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“All bets are off” reminded me of 2020 election, I always check gaming odds as an indicator of the result, normally reliable barring 2016, in 2020 though after the polls closed the odds for both candidates moved from 1/10 to 10/1 respectively. Anyone prepared to do the work can harvest from those betting with their hearts or what they wish for, bit ruthless but hate the game… Love to hear your thoughts on the markets. Thanks Oracle.
U.S. is committing suicide by cop.
Plan your life accordingly. How? I live în România, I m beyond fucked.
Castle Dracula should be a safe location, have you tried that?
Romania managed to do the flip in 1944. Now, how Nato is on the verge of imploding, history could repeat itself.
Bran casttle(Dracula s joint) is a shithole, you are better în the Carphatian Mountains în some cave. Cheers Jacob, love your work.
Everyone in Europe is beyond fucked, not just Romanians… And by the way unfortunately we all deserve it
As far as planning accordingly … aren’t you in DC (ostensibly ground zero)?
Actually, if putin really wanted to terrorize the US, he’d nwke with low yield a city like Des Moines instead of DC or Philly.. Then people wouldn’t be able to predict where another strike might occur
.
That’s not how it works
There ain’t no future like there used to be.
Do you think this news of a dirty bomb that Russia accused Ukraine of plotting, and the flurry of phone calls from Russia to various western leaders headed off Plan A? That perhaps Russia told the Brits and the US that they had the proof the Brits and the US were supporting the plan so they were forced to back off? What makes me wonder is this strange comment the Brit Defense minister made about coms presumably between Britain and the US being compromised. Anyway I suspect Russia intercepted the attempt to take this conflict nuclear, so we have Vlad to thank for saving the world, at least for now. Anyway – when I saw your headline -2020 vs 2023 I assumed you were referring to civil unrest again where the left is going to burn cities and other mayhem in advance of losing the White House, which they will, if there is still a White House as opposed to a crater 2 years from now….
Tactical… nuclear… weapons.
Hard to believe we’re at this point but we most definitely are. Once the first tactical nuke is unleashed, no matter how “small” it is, it’s hard to see how nuclear escalation stops. Maybe the first mushroom cloud will make everyone pause and come to their senses….. not even a slight hope of that.
I wonder how that genie once unleashed gets put back too. All I can see is utter panic on all sides to throw the coup de grace. Once that first one goes boom the suspense going forward is going to be utter hell lol.
Terrific post, as usual, though even I knew that RF never had any intention or need to use tactical nukes. That contention was absolutely brain dead from the get go. To do so would have been gigantic negative on every metric of the SMO. Oh, and “Why are they waking up to (B) so slowly?” Because the false flag dirty bomb plot was exposed. Pop off a dirty bomb near Kiev, radiation counters light up in Poland, blame RF, unleash titanic media op, send troops into Odessa, a la Al Tanf. Yeah, how did that work out? I don’t know what plan they are down to now, Left Plans A, B, C, D way back there. Are they on Plan F or Plan K? How deep are they in shitfuckery plans gone tits up time after time after time? Keep an eye on PRK, I would guess. If Ukronazi party is over, and Taiwan is just all costs with no benefit, then why not gin up some shitfuckery false flag and glass over Pyongyang? You’re right that they need something real, real big and they need it real soon.
There use to be 3rd parties, even 4th and 5th political parties in the US in past times of crisis, and these parties would eventually bring about a change in the existing consensus. Now it looks like there is going to be a monopoly, and as to consensus, it is whole cloth manufactured by a defective machine. The goose is cooked, now it’s just a matter of the eating.
Well, it’s November 1, and I’m still alive.
Another good one: “The bought-and-paid-for think-tanks of the military-industrial complex…..” – still the Amazon Post is my all time favorite ;-))
To me a mystery is still – why the German population is not yet reacting to UK-US destruction of Germany. When will they finally?
Also – nuclear versus bio-weapons.. Bio-weapons are far less expensive to develop than nuclear. Plus we have here the incredible conclusion by the Chair of the Lancet’s COVID-19 Commission:
Prof. Jeffrey Sachs says he is “pretty convinced [COVID-19] came out of US lab biotechnology” and warns that there is dangerous virus research taking place without public oversight.
“Why the Chair of the Lancet’s COVID-19 Commission Thinks The US Government Is Preventing a Real Investigation Into the Pandemic”
https://www.jeffsachs.org/interviewsandmedia/64rtmykxdl56ehbjwy37m5hfahwnm5
Prof. Jeffrey Sachs is the Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and the President of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. He has also served as the chair of the COVID-19 commission for leading medical journal the Lancet. Through his investigations as the head of the COVID-19 commission, Prof. Sachs has come to the conclusion that there is extremely dangerous biotechnology research being kept from public view, that the United States was supporting much of this research, and that it is very possible that SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, originated through dangerous virus research gone awry.
The question with Germany is easy to answer. There are roughly 100 NGOs for ‘Transatlantic’ friendship, alliance, whatever you want to call the Empire-Vassal relationship between the US and Germany. Those NGOs are all over the place, almost every relevant political or business leader is member of one of those.
Look up the biggest ones, German Council on Foreign Relations, European Council on Foreign Relations, German Marshall Fund, Atlantik Brücke.
So I think people in Germany will probably have to freeze and starve first, then maybe, just maybe, a bunch of them will wake up, that the mentally challenged politicians are useless.
I think those memberships are pretty much copied in every Vassal state, not everything is bad, I think in the beginning it was about really having connections to other Nations and cultures. But of course was also used to force Hegemony on Vassal States.
Replaced “police state” with “populist leaders” and it makes way more sense. Based.
Maybe a diesel shortage will divert sufficient attention to drop Ukraine off the radar? GOP takes over after a Christmas of empty shelves and heating oil priced like frankincense and myrrh, and they have plenty to blame on Democrats for the next couple of years.
Ukraine gets thrown to the wolves and disappears from the headlines and eastern Europe can divvy up the scraps while Russia turns the gas back on. The MIC has plenty of orders already to replace the stuff sent to Ukraine to get blown up and that will take years.
Or a deus ex machina like Variant X taking out some key people in quick succession.
Beyond that, I don’t see any way around your scenario. If the US won’t gin up a big enough Gulf of Tonkin the UK will probably do it for them just to make sure they stay focussed. All kinds of tails on this dog.
enough said. The Midterms will be completely thrown. You don’t really think they rigged 2020 by 20 million votes and have not figured a way to do same this time around? Oh its local so they can’t? Really. In 15 seconds a techie nerd can get into the back of any voting machine and flip the count. Easy. Do people get it now or do they need another reminder?
I doubt even the House goes Red. No matter. There will be no significant change. There will be more COVID mandates rolled out in the coming year. This has always been the plan by hook or by crook. All any idiot needs to do is scare the suburban white house wife. They have loaded all vaccines with the MRNA graphene oxide and self assembling nano tech and it must be replenished in cycles or it degrades.
the lethal ‘variant X’ coming is just the bullshit they need to promote the injectables, its the fear porn they have been peddling since day 1. There is no deadly virus and they never identified one. It was always and only a flu imo and the annual flu kills the old and infirm every single year from 25k-50k of them.
What the fuck… I came up with “Variant X.” Are you saying I am in on the plot to “promote the injectables”?
Obviously that’s what you were really working on when you were supposedly a peon pretending to fix Obamacare. Ha.
say what? Dr Dre is in on no plot. People do not understand what the love juice really is or how the joy flu is communicated. The pop narrative peddled by the ‘media’ whether it be about a germ, D.Trump,cancer,Ukes,climate catastrophe, you name it ad nauseum,- the narrative is ALWAYs false and intended to distract,divert and deceive.
Variants on this seasonal flu are irrelevant and biologically impotent.
It wasn’t so much the machines as it was the No signature matching with mail in ballots everywhere with no chain of custody (drop boxes).
Yet another great report. As an European, I appreciate the US focus, especially because our European leadership seems to be completely clueless subservient slaves of the US. I wonder how their birth went. It must have been quite traumatic for the parents and medical personnel seeing a spineless human being born. Thanks for the heads-up. Yes, I do believe we will be witnessing the shitstorm of the millennium…
Spineless hahah. Nice.
I always thought that vary-ant X might not come around in time to stop USA from doing some too colossal and irreversible evil shit. Things are going too fast.
Outright delusional to claim a monopoly on T2 images, EVERYONE is using them. And the option A) was rather more emphasised than B) – unreasonably. Not the best moment to brag about powers of foresight,
Nonsense. Who is “everyone”? That film is 31 years old, I have seen the playground nuke scene NOWHERE in years and years. Also what I didn’t mention is ZeroHedge does open my emails, every time. Someone over there is a loyal reader.
“It’s like a chump who’s losing at the Vegas slots, but he can’t stop, he has to play all his quarters.”
Chasing your bets. Perfect.
One nice thing about living in California is that because of demographics it is a one party State and therefore the Republican Party doesn’t waste any money trying to campaign here. As a result I am spared their excruciatingly lame efforts to pretend they have an agenda other than “More of the Same Except More Cowbell”.
In the city of Los Angeles one of the two leading candidates for Mayor actually switched his party registration from Republican to Democrat only weeks before filing in an attempt to run against Karen Bass. His campaign seems to consist of professing his support for fourth trimester abortions. I don’t think anyone really cares about the race for Mayor because you have a White man running against a Black woman in a city in which Blacks and Whites are both single digit minorities in percentage of the population. The populi focus on either; running their small businesses and getting their kids into Stanford or UC, or, getting home after a hard day at the body shop or mowing lawns and relaxing with a few cervezas to root for Los Dodgers or Lakers.
LOL. Sounds nice!
Gee. I remember when California was mostly Republican. Nixon, Reagan, anyone?
One thing I know down to my very bones…we can’t vote our way out of any of this.
Second thing I know, World War is coming if not here already. The psychopaths have backed themselves into a corner and all they know is to escalate, so escalate they will. Just as Jacob declared.
Third thing…after seeing that right out in the open, the medical psychopaths are increasing the kill potential on the thing we cannot talk about…both at Boston University and now in the UK, I am afraid it’s just a matter of time before the hammer falls for real. I didn’t want to believe Jacob, but it’s now obvious what they have in store for us.
But the worst most ugly thing of all is, we the people will not lift a single solitary finger to stop any of this. The people are broken, ignorant and brainwashed, totally incapable of critical thought or defending themselves in any way.
I can hear the fat lady singing now…..
The People never could stop it.
“One of the biggest things I got wrong on this blog, was thinking Russia would turn off the lights and communications on day one. Instead, Putin pussyfooted around …”. “A politician … [won’t save us exactly because] … needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen”. And I wonder — I also thought, as many did, — Russia would turn off the lights (water, heat and last but not least www) … wonder why Russia did not. In retrospect the strategy, apart from “pussyfooting”, could have been the proverbial cat & mouse. He and his advisers might have understood that the Russians themselves along with its/her ‘allies/fwb’ in the south were not ready … Ucrayina was not ready (it was getting warmer). Is now really a good timing to wreak havoc around nuclear reactors which were melting down anyway (ref. an earlier post)? Or in hindsight — should he have done it on day one (with all the info we have now)?
I appreciate you commenting all the way from Russia, but you must clean up your increasingly rambling, “thought salad” style. It violates my comments policy. You used to be concise and coherent.
okay … it was a question: why not on day one? Pussyfooting — just that? Or you think ‘why’ does not matter?
My guess:
The first few weeks of war were devoted to a quick attack covering a lot of ground but without massive destruction of civilian infrastructure. Meant to scare Ukraine leadership into a settlement but also ‘Ukraine civilian friendly’. It didn’t work out.
In late March Putin reassessed. Western sanctions against Russia had failed. Likely no chance of Russian military victory with available forces. The West remained invulnerable to reason or compromise.
So, to win, Russia needed all-out ‘turn out the lights’ war, partial military mobilization, and, ideally, capitulation and cooperation by Ukraine government. To get that last part is helped a lot by ending Western backing and money to the Zelensky cabal. Cold and severe economic pain in the winter, plus elections in Europe in first half of 2023, might get most of that done. 2022, before winter, was too early.
The US may escalate, but Russia now has a 6 month lead in mobilization with all the mobilization machinery stood up and dusted off and 300k already run through it. The machinery remains in place and the next callup could be for 700k.
They have also already got their mobilization of industry started up.
The US may escalate, thinking that Russia will hesitate to confront the US directly. With that mindset, they may place the limited US forces in the area in a vulnerable position thinking the Russians will respect the threat. But will they. Might they just as well see it an an opportunity.
It’s still hard for me to believe that anyone in the US military would consent to use of tactical Nuclear weapons. But I wont say never. It’s also hard for me to believe the Military will consent to orders that might involve the destruction of significant US formations.
One can be sure that the Russians still have 1000’s of standoff weapons they can rain down on all the densely built airbases and infrastructure the US just assumes are untouchable. Untouchable because, well we are Americans…
Seems impossible, but I wonder at what point some set of Colonels might decide their civilian masters are out of control
I will link this welcome article, and my unwelcome comments, thanks.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I love this blog. Today’s post is full-on Black Pill and yet I feel more alive than depressed. Why? Because visceral anger is cathartic in the face of the tsunami of bullshit sweeping the country right now. Yes, tell it like it is and, yes, it’s OK to be angry, and yes, use that anger to get your ass up off the couch. There are genuinely evil man doing genuinely evil things in the world and most of them are in the West (Hello Brandon). And burying your head in the sand will just get your ass fried first when the nukes start flying. Enough venting. Keep up the good work. And as a side note, I still think that Tulsi’s highest and best use as a human being would be to make multi-millions on either OnlyFans or Pornhub as a milf performer. Her take from faux politics is chump change in comparison.
Ok, so I guess Romania will enter the war at some point, because our leaders are the most spineless organisms which ever evolved on Earth. Well, I have a 1% hope that they can perform an August 23 1944 again…but likely even that can’t save us.
Probably Poland will go first, then Romania, though. So I will have time to go to Dracula’s castle, LOL.
To change the subject: I think Variant X is your most controversial prediction, but if you get it right you will deserve the title of “Prophet Dreizin, peace be upon him”.
Maybe first some conflict will start between Serbia (which is next door to Romania) and NATO member Kosovo. This old conflict almost flared up again this summer, but it was nipped in the bud…for the time being. The Balkans have traditionally been very volatile, so it’s easy for NATO to kick something off. Serbia is a traditional ally of Russia, but it’s completely surrounded by NATO countries which makes Russian logistical and military aid next to impossible.
The Serbs are Phuket, and this is exactly the reason why their bitchy president, who is a genuine bitch in real life, is even bitchier in euro-political life. For months I have feared that they are going to provoke-bomb Serbia just to compensate for the “inaction” in Ukraine.
Those non-minds in Brussels think that the whole Balkan dynamics is about Serbs=Mini-Russians=bad! I talked to a couple of officers with KFOR-experience when I did my duty and everyone of them couldn’t understand why everything that was somehow favorable to Serbian interests was/is categorically rejected. Similar to the “Russian case”, the Serbs have no right whatsoever to claim anything, acc. to EU-non-minds. It was interesting that many of those officers became sympathetic towards the Serbs at the end of their stay, both in Kosovo and in Bosnia. Easy to explain why: Serbs accepted their role as the bad guy and do their thing while the other folks just blame the Serbs always for all their own corruption-related shit and everything else. One friend of mine was on a Bosniak wedding (=Bosnian muslims) and they sang songs about how to stab and kill Serbs and at the same time they complained about the “Serbian fascism”.
Reminds me highly of the Ukrainian “mindset”.
About Tussie Gabbard (Tussie means bitchy young arrogant woman in German):
I am no US-specialist but wonder what there is to discuss. Even “revolutioner” Bernie Sanders showed that he would perfectly change/fit to “mainstream” as soon as he would smell “real power”. No matter what they would say earlier, in office they would have to “show strength towards the Russians and/or Chinese”. Which means fucking up every possible diplomatic shit and create chaos. It really doesn’t matter who is in power and it is really sad that D.Trump was the closest thing to “change” we have got under the current pre- and post election regime, and we see how that worked out.
All Europeans think that about their leaders. Actually it is a highly sophisticated operation. During their education or when they become part of the “ruling political class” they got their spine removed from their rectum. As a result you have people like Joschka Fischer, who was a leftist revolutioner in his youth, became one of the biggest supporters of NATO intervention in Yugoslavia (“No more war, no more Auschwitz, no more genocide, no more fascism!” – I guess they would even use that as justification to shoot people live on TV) and ended up working as a professor and consulter for the usual suspects (banks, etc…).
Talking about spineless eurocrats… Javier Solana, the NATO secretary general during the Kosovo war was a prominent member of the Spanish Socialist Party, which, back in the 70’s and 80‘s opposed NATO vehemently. Solana himself wrote a document called „50 reasons to say no to NATO“. The party even promised to organize a referendum to leave the alliance if reelected in 1986.The moment they won the elections they started a virulent pro-NATO campaign to convince their base of what a terrible idea leaving NATO would be. The people voted to stay. That‘s how easily you manipulate public opinion
Peace be upon him?
When you speak truth to Power
Power loves you not
One possible scenario is massive revolt in the US joined by many in the Armed Forces ..and as Einstein said , The 4th World War will be fought with sticks and stones ..
At some point there is nothing left to lose..
The Democrats show signs of trying to sweep their Ko-ro-na antics under the carpet judging by the recent “Panoramic Amnesty” piece that just ran in the Atlantic. The author is also “data driven” so what is she seeing in all that data to try to float the idea of a Get Out of Jail card? It can’t be good. I’m thinking if/when Var X shows up the establishment the Democrats depend on to exert power won’t have the credibility required to take this dead horse out for another ride. Var X will also hollow this establishment (and the Dems) out if it’s as bad as you’re thinking it might be.
If there is gonna be a total nuclear war, that pretty much takes the pressure off the planning for the future.
And it’s definitely gonna be a blast.
Well exactly right about escalation and certain hot clash with unforeseeable consequences. That’s my fear as well.
But I keep thinking that US /western citizens have so much more to lose than their Russian counterparts. Add to that traditional Slavic propensity for tragedy… Russia will not back down but why would USA push all the way there?
Well, my theory is that nato is already beyond the civil structures, it is nato calling the shots and the civilian structures are just folklore at this point.
Insanity.
Not sure what Jacob means about how massively redundant and resilient the Ukrainian electricity system is; I understand the terms but I’d like to briefly state the problem that I a retired power station operator see. Once the generator transformers(the ones which step up voltage from the relatively low say 6kV to 300 kV) are destroyed there is no easy fix for that. Commonly generator transformers will be 3 single phase units,take out one of three no more power from that generator. It’s not a matter of Soviet era or Western units,same voltage and frequency no problem,it’s how you get them there AFTER they are built. Anyway it’s obvious Russia is systematically degrading the transmission network as well; before moving to operations I was an overhead lineman, replacing destroyed towers in a war zone? good luck with that.
Thanks very much for your comment. I’m no engineer, but Russia has destroyed *TENS* (at least 25) of 300kV transformers and at least three (probably more) 750kV transformers, as well as several automatic re-routers/distributors/failsafes (whatever you call them), and also damaged the utility’s national command center. And that’s just what I’m aware of. Power is still on 24 hours/day in some places, and at least a few hours/day (FWIW) everywhere, even in the Kiev area, which has been badly pummeled. As I said, the ancient USSR left behind a MASSIVELY resilient infrastructure… evidently, much more than what you as an American or Canadian engineer can even imagine. It was truly an advanced civilization. And no, Russia has not targeted the power lines, that’s a total waste of time (can be easily fixed) and literally no one in Russia has ever even suggested that.
once the locals realize they can sell the stripped copper and AL for cash, and if they can safely remove it when its de energized, then power lines will start to disappear mysteriously. a little at first then a whole lot.
in South Africa, they would cut live cables and use vehicles to pull runs of 2km’s of cable at a time with a truck and disappear into the night.
Hey why fight just one war THIS IS MURICA!! State department Hold muh beer! let me show you how many fronts with nuclear powers I can open up, LETS FIGHT CHINA TOO.
Just today some retard in the state department is declaring IRAN is about to attack Saudi Arabia! so there we have it, they We got this fam, we will defend the people who dont want to pump more oil and we need more fronts to fight on to prove our supuriority, its how we escalate now!
A Great, Sensible, and UNIQUE Analysis! Keep up the Good Work.
Apropos Gabbard:
I remember when Barack Hussein Obama came to India some years ago, while he was still the Nobble Piece Prizident, the highly prestigious St Xavier’s College in Mumbai arranged a question and answer session with its students for him. My then girlfriend’s daughter was a student at the time in that college. All the students were first vetted for their and their parents’ political opinions and attitudes, and only those that could be absolutely guaranteed to not ask Obama any embarrassing questions in any way (like “why are you droning children?”) were permitted to attend the question and answer session.
Also, I have been saying at least since June that NATO will inevitably commit a nuclear false flag attack on Ukranazistan to manufacture a pretext for open intervention. When I said so Moon Of Alabama the towering geniuses on that site’s comment forum excoriated me as a “troll” and “idiot” (as they did also when I said, purely from analysing events, that Russia has no stranding professional army, just a core of conscripts and officers, depending entirely on a neoliberal model of ultra short term contract forces to do the fighting, something later confirmed by other sources). These people are always eager to shut their minds to unwelcome ideas.
Yes, NATO is going to get into the Ukranazistan war, no matter how and no matter what the consequences. They’ve invested too much to back off now.
Hello, Jacob. In one of your early videos (if not the first video) in ‘Russia’s Plan A and B, explained’ published on 04/24/2022 you went into some technical detail on why ‘sooner or later, one of the Ukraine’s nuclear reactors will rApture’ – i.e. go up in the air as you put it. Their electric grid in overdrive and stuff, i.e poor maintenance.
This is actually when I started paying more attention to Your blog … since this particular insight (wasn’t subscribed then). Basically the whole video was about that, and it resonated with me as I had similar thoughts with actually some background in engineering (Russian and American), in energy in fact. Not nuclear but close enough to appreciate your analysis while no one else had mentioned it at all … not that I knew of — in Russia, the USA nor @ (the) Ukraine for that matter.
So now what you said in April might be more relevant. Or it might not be as the Russians have more or less decoupled the biggest nuclear plant in Europe from the grid as if no big deal. I personally don’t know — seems like (the) Ukraine can manage for months with the rods up or whatever they do to idle (as in no load) the reactors … And zero (technical) coverage anywhere far as can I see — just ‘dirty bombs’ pop up here and there in the media …
John Helmer has just posted a very good article on the subject of, among other things, the Russian attacks on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine. Visit Johnhelmer.net. The overall impression of the Russian strategy is of a cat playing with a (now badly injured) mouse.
Chernobyl was a RBMK (graphite) reactor which had a negative power coefficent that made shutting down the reactors always the point of highest risk of a steam explosion, All of Ukraine’s remaining reactors are VVR (a more robust version of PWR-light water reactors) which have a positive power coefficient, there is no risk of a steam explosion from reactivity. 24 hours after reactor shutdown the residual heat load is low enough that under urgent conditions the primary loop can be open to the atmosphere and cooled by filling with unpressurized water, and under normal conditions the loops are opened to the atmosphere for reloading fuel or other maintenance after about 3 days cooling. Even in the event of being disconnected from the grid and the failure of diesel generators to start, there are steam driven pumps that can hold the system stable indefinitely. Even the nature of the fuel rods makes using spent fuel to make dirty bombs extremely inefficient, they’d be better off raiding all the dental x-ray machines. The VVR machines are way over designed, I inspect the Russian built plants in China, it’s only the use of these plants as an excuse to do something Biden level stuuppidd that worries me.
With general “Angry White Male” Milley in charge, I don’t think there is any sensible military leadership left. The Pentagon used to have some sense to balance the warmongers at the state department now both are infected withe rage virus.
Jacob are you fiddling as Rome is about to burn? …. tell the folks about the need to repent and be prepared for eternity … that’s the only safe plan y’all …. allowing a geriatric molester to lead the world to chaos driven by his neocon/liberal war monger demons is a poor ending for what the US of A once was …. ps: Orthodox and Christian Saints have long prophesied that Russia would be the centre of Christian salvation and reevangelisation of a sick,sad old woke misguided world…… could be, could be… it certainly won’t be Brandon or any of his ‘colleagues’ on ‘both sides of the House’ …..
Hi Jacob thanks again, I agree on our downward progression to hell on many fronts but unlike the poor buggers of WWI we all know the devastation of modern/nuclear war, in your opinion, is there any way to stop this?
Thanks for asking. Well, use of tactical nuclear weapons is not automatically a nuclear war. But the only way to stop even that, I think, is Variant X or some other curveball that brings the house down and “changes the subject.”
“…But the only way to stop even that, I think, is Variant X or some other curveball that brings the house down and “changes the subject.”.”
Like you stated in the article. The faintest hope (in Fantasy land) is the getting rid of Mccarthy and Turtle and cutting the money flow IMHO.
Isn’t if fun watching the US try to fight wars that its people really don’t want? They’ve roped Ukraine into being the man power, now that they are on their last legs, who is going to be next? Which country wants to be the next to get destroyed for a last gasp at American hegemony?
Jacob, just a request, but is it possible that you could do a ‘Back to the Future’ themed post next and include somewhere within it the line: “roads…where we’re going we don’t need…roads…”
Thank you, love the blog!
The reason Ukrainian power infrastructure is being targeted now is only because Russian conventional military superiority has imploded in all that corruption-bred incompetency (thanks to that old simpleton Rasputin and his buddies). The only conventional superiority they had left with for now in UA it’s Russia stand-off capabilities, and even those need to be reinforced by Iranian supplied unterwaffe. They are just reacting the only way they can, without any thoroughly thought plan behind it.
The nuclear holocaust won’t happen because humans are not the ones running this show. We think that we are, and this is why the ones in power are going incomprehensibly stupid with their arrogant delusion of self-importance. God has his own plans, and I doubt those include the destruction of European (white) civilization.
I don’t buy your uber-critisizm and I don’t think that it is grounded in reality. It has nothing to do with my special love for the Russian elite, BUT:
-Someone in the Russian leadership, and therefore Putin as the master chief, made a strategic mistake in assuming that “frightening by pseudo-invasion” would persuade the Ukrainians/”West” to negotiate or take agreements more seriously. Well, that turned out to be a major fuck up. And there were other fuck ups as well.
Again, the BUT: Considering that the Russians went in with this not-fish-not-meat-kinda-plan they were able to occupy a good chunk of Ukraine with quite a limited contigent in manpower. And up to now the only thing the Ukrainians are good at is selling. They sell every retaken shittin’ backhouse as the major conquest and western media is overexponentiating that crap.
Other theaters, such as Syria, Crimea and Kazakhstan have shown that the Russian army is quite able to work efficient and goal-oriented.
The Ukrainians were armed to the teeth with hardware, are indoctrinated and they got hundreds of thousands of troops, even using NATO SW and “steered” by NATO.
Imo the Russian people are too self-critical and show sometimes a certain lack of self-confidence, which is absolutely not justified. Or this is just the picture that some stupid commenters want to produce and in reality the Russians are quite a monolithic block and don’t give a “sexual intercourse” about other opinions. I can’t say what it is since I don’t live there.
Strong military is the basic requirement for the continued existence of the Russia statehood. This was true for hundreds of years. Yet its military was abandoned to corruption and decay. This cannot continue — it’s an existential matter for Russia. They would either have to fix the military (and government) or lose their independence. And everyone would want a piece of it, until nothing would be left to call “Russia”.
The Russians are targeting power infrastructure now because there won’t be enough time to manufacture or procure any replacements in time for winter. Maximum pressure. Any 7 year old who can add and read a calendar could figure that out.
Thank you.
Sorry, but your view is not based on wishful thinking of all the pundits presented to the audience as “experts”. Russia’s UN ambassador explained at the UN that these strikes are an attempt to slow flow of NATO weapons. ( and troops). All trains run on electricity in Ukraine & – that’s why Russians are hitting “nodes” not actual plants. Also, Kiev is STILL SELLING ENERGY to the EU – which reminds me of Stalin selling grain during famine- to buy technology.
Also, but for blowing up of cCrimea bridge and all that glee, Russians would probably continue to suffer flow of NATO weapons zoo.
I don’t know that Variant X is really needed… Dr. John Campbell at about 6:00 in the following video, reports over 1500 excess deaths per week NOW! I’m not sure if this is just UK or world wide, but Golly Gee, ain’t that a lot? These are NOT cooph deaths. Perhaps Vaxx’d? Just so you don’t get bored because nuttin’s gowin on. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGZJfVR9-wo
As an Russian Orthodox Christian, not Russian, the part of the blog where the Kiev regime targets Orthodox Priests who did not go along with the CIA infiltration struck a cord. You have only to look at Patriarch Bartholmew to see how that goes. Of course they will attack the Fathers of the local churches in the Ukraine to deepen the rift between brothers. This is essentially a civil war.
“…THERE WILL BE NO REPUBLICAN AGENDA MOVING UNDER THE CURRENT “LEADERSHIP.”
THEY WILL GET ROLLED.
THEY MAY BE GOOD AT HERDING THEIR OWN CATS. BUT THEY ARE TIMID AND WEAK, AND THEY CANNOT GO UP HARD AGAINST THE MSM OR THE NARRATIVE.
THEY WILL ALLOW THEMSELVES TO GET DISTRACTED AND ROLLED BY WAG-THE-DOG BULLSHIT AND WHATEVER NEW EMERGENCY COMES ALONG.
THEY WILL GET NOTHING DONE OF ANY SUBSTANCE, THEY WILL BACK DOWN AT EVERY OPPORTUNITY.
NOTHING (BESIDES MORE DEMOCRAT-LED PORK SPENDING) WILL GET DONE UNDER THESE TWO…”
Spot on Jacob !!! This is THE KEY to all MAGA’s agendas.
No matter the noise out there about the red wave blah,blah… Dem’Rats only need Deer-in-the-light Mcarthy and McTurtle Coupled with FBLies and Department-of-Injustic brutality they will crush any MAGA agendas and suppoters. See how only McTurtle alone has destroyed almost all agendas during Trump’s Admin and at the same time fortifying all Deep State positions across departments from Fbi..to the Supreme Court ( Amy Barret, Brett Kavanaugh were a joke. Except ofc Justic Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito)!!!
So one only hopes many people in MAGA can see the difference between signal and the noise and act accordingly.
100%. Do not fall for the DeSantis deception! He is a globalist through and through and not to be trusted.
MAGA needs to expand its ranks. Look at who’s leading the fight for conservatives in the culture wars: Muslims in Dearborn! IMO Rural White America, Blacks, Hispanics, and Muslims need to squash any beef we have and unite as Americans. Think of what that would do to the ruling class. They’d shit their pants.
Hi Jacob – Great analysis as usual. I tried to explain this to my girl this morning — the emperor has no clothes. DRC and Rwanda, North Kosovo, Israel, Iran and Saudis, Syria, Aegean, Korean Peninsula – people got scores to settle and things that need to be made right… for them of course. I am from Northern Ireland and the hypocrisy of the British is astounding. Jesus a big neighbor got a foothold on your land due to an ethnic minority and the rump state was neutral cause of your security concerns… those damn evil Russians !!! People got to fix things and the Anglos are having a dreadful time. Watch me shed a tear. But the old powers ain’t looking so powerful. Can’t wait for us and Scotland to finally break free….I would imagine that you are correct that the US’s damn complicated federal system is about to fall and the states will regain supremacy. The Us don’t have the stomach right now for a fight and that wall is a a coming… usually when the US turn in wards and reduce immigration América starts prospering — it will not be easy and the threat of nuclear war is damn real as the US sends in arms inspectors…”Inspectors” strategically placed next to an arms depot…targeted arms depots… imagine getting assigned a suicidal provocation meeting like that… still I think a normal military whipping is enough… stalemate is fine for all sides after this winter… face saving and goals likely achieved on Russian side. Poles and Romanians are licking their chops for expansion… hell Moldova might get a bit of a coastline if it plays itself right… but the US won’t ever be the same… and we all know it… it will turn so inward after all this and rely only on the old Anglosphere and LatAm.. bye bye Europe and Japan and Korea … we can’t feed you all…. But the US needs the tough medicine — cutting down the federal government only comes after the crash and then the states get back power … I still thinks Guns and Jesus come back big eventually… but what do I know. I got the damn radiation pills just in case. Thank you again for this and all the other amazing content — espescially the videos and interviews.
Thanks very much! One comment, the U.S. federal system won’t “fail”, IMHO. When the states become more powerful, it will, almost by definition, be made stronger… even if the country is much weaker as a whole.
Spot on, the automatronic POTUS shows MIC-IMATTS got better tech than North Korea – USA necrocracy has an actual moving hand puppet for the permanent state to shove it’s fingers into, and far more flexible crowd control vis state media (if the business of America is business, then corporate media is state media).
So a fellow on twitter (@GraphicW5) who works at a VA hospital has posted about a very curious meeting he had this morning with a ‘PMC’ type. Quote verbatim:
“After the meeting I just got out of at work, it does not look like the GAE is going to go quietly. They have notified medical staff to be ready and willing to serve if war breaks out with Russia and China as high casualties are expected.”
(- “Objection, your honor, hearsay”
– “Oh, shut up”)
Also:
“… I do know they added a huge Diesel power plant to this hospital with enough fuel storage to power it for a month in a grid down scenario. There has been a lot of emergency training too.”
To paraphrase my grandma, oy vey.
Alas, Dreizin, so far your predictions are on track to be fulfilled.
Sorry, your twitter quote is total nonsense and BS. This is not how reserve call-ups work, nor are most VA medics eligible to be called up (either they were never in uniform, or they have passed their inactive reserve period.)
Hi Jacob. Can you please share any books which have particularly helped you see things the way you do (e.g. history, etc). Thank you for your bold and entertaining analysis.
Hello. I cover so many different issues and angles, it’s hard to say it came from one book or even 10 books. It’s more of a synthesis of everything, including the news that I’ve taken in since I’ve been conscious enough to do so, my work experience, as well as watching how people around me behave.
For easy reading, I’d say start with some Cold War fiction, including The Ugly American and The Quiet American. For nonfiction, The Peter Principle.
For more brainy nonfiction, you can start with Party Politics In The Age of Caesar.