In this video, Jacob is interviewed by the “Two Mikes” podcast. During the show, Jacob explains why the U.S. Government is obsessed with the Ukraine, and why the Democrat regime’s “progressive” ideals don’t apply to the fascist/supremacist, one-party dictatorship that the Ukraine has become.
Please click on link below to access. Jacob appears at approximately the 4 minute mark.
Jacob’s Confession (not getting back into daily Ukraine coverage, but must share this)
Since last year, this blog, and my mailing list that preceded it, have carried A LOT of accurate calls. I don’t do investment advice, per se, but people who had the good sense (and the available capital) to follow some of my general calls, could have made A LOT of money.
However, although I was pretty much the only “private” (not Pentagon, State, CIA, etc.) American analyst to say as early as January or even December that a Russian invasion was likely imminent, that it wasn’t just “sabre-rattling” to get attention or make Brandon look dumb, I was wrong about the way Russia would wage its war in the Ukraine.
I told my readers that on day one, the power and communications would likely be knocked out or severely disrupted (similar to U.S. bombings of Serbia, Iraq, and other countries.) But in fact, Russia has been surprisingly gentle with most of the civilian infrastructure.
(Don’t believe me? Ukrainian soldiers are in many cases livestreaming their antics from the frontline, using their personal cellphones. How does that work without infrastructure?)
Russia also did not do any U.S.-style, surprise “decapitation” attacks against the Ukraine’s military leadership or (for the most part) the regime’s propaganda apparatus (remember how the U.S. deliberately killed civilians at the Serbian TV station in 1999?)
It’s clear Putin figured he could make a deal with at least part of the Ukraine’s security establishment, so he didn’t want to just kill them. “It was a bad call, Ripley. It was a bad call.”
In general, Russia has not seemed as “serious” about the war as I had anticipated. Evidently, for political reasons, to avoid alarming his populace (indeed, by all accounts, most Russian do not really feel they are at war), Putin decided NOT to call a general mobilization…..
…..which means that while Ukrainian draft officers are trolling nightclubs and swimming pools, Russian frontline manpower is severely limited, and in fact, in almost every battle, Russian and Donetsk/Lugansk units have faced Ukrainian forces that are numerically superior by 2X or more.
This explains the extremely slow pace of Russia’s advance in the Donbass, and likewise Russia’s inability to advance in the south after the first few weeks of the war.
Ukrainian forces have been severely degraded and are now mostly (at least 2/3) mobilized reservists, untrained draftees, and poorly trained volunteer militia, but, they are dug-in, often heavily armed, and they still have overwhelming numerical superiority.
This “meat” is being ground down, but there is so much meat (and so much new meat always coming online), that it takes a lot of time.
Furthermore, the slow pace of Russia’s advance has allowed the U.S. hegemonic bloc time to partially replenish the Ukraine’s severely depleted armor and artillery (and to a lesser extent, combat aviation) assets, such that no matter how much hardware Russia destroys, the Ukraine never quite runs out.
A faster pace to the Russian advance would have obviated this complication. The way things have turned out, Russia has been forced not just to “demilitarize” the Ukraine, but all of Europe as well, and even (to a lesser extent) the USA.
This destruction of Europe’s military potential (such as it was) certainly carries at least a conceptual benefit to Russia, but it’s not what the leadership had intended.
Surely, some (ignorant, naive, and obviously non-Russian) Putin worshippers (He’s the greatest strategic genius of all time! Playing 4D chess! A god!) will be upset by my words. But hey, no leader is perfect. Tough sh*t.
On the other hand, I called it that most Ukrainians would not have a “do or die” fighting spirit. In addition to ruthless conscription and a new law allowing the immediate execution of insubordinates and deserters…..
…..a regime of total propaganda keeps them in the game, thinking there is hope and they will win. And as such, they certainly enjoy taking potshots and posing for thousands of TickTock videos…..
…..But when truly pressed or cornered, they ALMOST ALWAYS RUN AWAY (OR SURRENDER), rather than stand and fight to the death.
This was totally predictable (which is why I predicted it), seeing as (surprise, surprise!!!) no one REALLY wants to die for a government headed by a clown and his TV production posse…..
…..Not to mention, Ukrainians and Russians are so similar (and Russia is not trying to cleanse or genocide anyone), who’s really interested in dying to keep them apart?
Again, it is only Russia’s SEVERELY UNDERWHELMING manpower commitment that is keeping these dipsh*ts somewhat afloat… for now.
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Jacob, is the Russian (and other nations’) stated goal to get themselves rid of the western economic, political, military dominance and develop a new international system without the West, the main reason that they will fight Russia and possibly China to the bitter end?
Outstanding synopsis of the Ukraine catastrophe. With a little editing you might be able to condense it down to a 15 minute brief for the benefit of the dunces running the West today and all the sheeple living here (editing out Col Mike’s ramblings would be the first step). Given that only a tiny minority is taking the time to understand the big picture evolution of this mess (although, as you allude, the political class are willfully ignoring it to support the grand narrative of the Ukraine project), a 15 minute spoken brief and transcription in every Western citizen’s email inbox on Monday morning would do a world of good.
Here in Canada we have Rick Hillier, the retired chief of the defense staff of the Canadian Forces (and former commander of the NATO ISAF in Afghanistan) talking nonsense and pandering to the large Ukrainian diaspora. I attended a conference about 10 years ago where he was invited as the keynote speaker (his talk had nothing to do with the main subject of the conference – it was one of those keynote speeches from a high profile speaker that was intended to addresses the broader global geopolitical picture for the benefit of a business audience; like so many ex-military in the West today, he joined the speaking tour as a meal ticket). I’ll never forget how he spoke with bravado about Canada’s commitment of blood and treasure to the NATO Afghanistan project (miniscule relative to the US but not nothing either) and how he was planning to vacation in a stabilized Afghanistan with his wife in the near future. I’m sure the talk was recorded and can be found somewhere.
Why do those pseudo-countries even get to vote in UN if they have barely any more sovereignty than some states within US? Some even less. At least politics in States do influence Washington, while Ukraine and other smaller countries are almost completely one sided.
I’ve been saying for a while now that there aren’t 50 US states, but 79 (counting NATO members) and that Sweden/Finland will be Nos. 80 and 81.
In an interview with the Dutch daily Algemeen Dagblad (pay wall) Thurs July 21, the Dutch deputy minister of Defense Christophe van der Maat admitted they are scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of supplying Ukraine with materiel. He is being roundly criticized by domestic and foreign spokesmen for the impolitic admission.
“Our military stockpiles are running out: ‘If the Russians were to invade, we could only fight for a couple of days.’
Finally there is more money for the military. Deputy minister of Defense Christophe van der Maat must nonetheless admit that actual ammunition and equipment will demand years of patience. ‘The impact on us will only increase’.”
See also https://nltimes.nl/2022/07/21/dutch-military-reaching-limits-can-give-ukraine
Funny how while all this stuff is going on in Ukraine and other places, a certain Reey-Jiyn Anne-Tahrr-teae-carrh is likely getting even less attention from the public mind than than it might do at other times.
However, even when a treasure chest is locked and for the time being inaccessible, those who are aware of it’s existence may (in the meantime) measure, assess, calculate, and make plans to maximize their eventual Access to, and their Share, of the golden harvest.
If you were interested in knowing how the proceeds of this eventual harvest might be transported to powerful nations in the northern hemisphere, you will see that there are three great land masses that could potentially offer rail transport routes for this purpose, after shipping to the southern tip of one of these land masses.
Who can guess which region will be ‘chosen’? Perhaps more than one route will be required. Imagine the intrigue, that will accompany this.
Just listened to the podcast. In a matter of minutes, you presented the most salient big picture analysis of the Ukraine that has ever appeared on the internet, and the background was absolutely crucial to understanding current events. If we could think (or talk) our way out of the mess in Ukraine, this would be must read by all policymakers who are operating behind the scenes in this debacle. But I fear that it’s too late for that now. No retreat by the US or NATO is going to lessen the disaster that is unfolding. The body count is too high and the insanity is off the charts. The only conspiracy theory that makes any sense is that Brandon is the real Manchurian Candidate and everything he’s doing is with the explicit intent and goal of destroying the West in toto. All of his actions have been a masterpiece of man-made apocalypse. Even more impressive is that he accomplished this while keeping all of DC hiding under their desks. No checks & balances whatsoever. He’s actually daring the plebs to rise up in rebellion. Things change slowly until they change very fast.
Can I get an F for Brandon?
thank you so much for your always prescient Ukraine analysis.
Jacob, you never cease to amaze with your wealth of knowledge. WOW!
Whitelisted per your request.
The authenticity of these videos is what makes them. I can always watch corporate (Sky) or government propaganda (BBC) news for a coiffed presenter who reads from a teleprompter. They get high points for a certain form of “style” but zero for truth and insight. Prefer these videos.
So hard to see a way for the Ukraine quagmire to end well. Putin did not want to fight at all, then when he felt forced to he really hoped that Uncle Sam would see reason and tell Zelensky to negotiate quickly. But instead Uncle Sam in his late empire senility (literally with respect to the nominal Head of State) went totally crazy. Europe then joined him. This mass leadership hysteria is not now going away and I agree with you that they see no option other than to keep doubling down. Seventh Round of EU Sanctions kind of sums it up. Like the Seventh Battle of the Isonzo, and equally futile.
President Putin is now in a kind of favourable position. But the circumstances are not ones that this essentially Europhile and cautious leader would have in any way chosen if he had had a free choice from the get go. I believe he wanted genuine harmony with the west and for Russia to take her place as part of western civilisation. Not to be at war with it. Very sad,
The longer this conflict lasts, brrrrr the colder winter will be. Not only will nato weapons be depleated but also the western governments and EU sunshine.
For Russia’s “de-militarize” mission, I don’t see how Ukraine could be any more cooperative. They keep sending forces into the trenches attacked by Russian artillery. Seems like the best way to minimize Russian casualties and maximize Ukraine’s.
But for “de-nazify” I don’t see that happening. The Ukraine nazi-like establishment will be supported by USA & will never die. Russia just needs a “de-nazified” buffer zone in Ukraine somehow.
“de-nazify” can’t stop at Western Ukraine border, or it’s pointless. However, Russia doesn’t have to do it, much less do it alone. Just create the conditions where it will be done internally. The real trick is will be if it does not result in some old fart diving for the nuclear football. I’d like to know S-500 production numbers, it would not surprise me if the Russia understand Western leaders see solution to variants in bugs and people is mass sterilization of the planet.
I agree. It appears that the slower pace of operations has had the unintended consequence of providing the nato bloc with just enough rope to hang itself politically/economically/militarily etc. If indeed it was intended, it’s quite a brilliant play really.
Your style of reporting is just fine – it makes you way more authentic to speak freely.
I am wondering to what extent AI is used in this military intervention in Ukraine (from both sides) – can not find any information about this.
Interesting analysis, as always.
Love your posts and precise and detailed information. This one was really good and a slightly different take which is very interesting. On the production side, (this coming from someone in broadcasting for many years), try to limit your “you knows”…
Thanks, but I’m not “in broadcasting”. Professionals have scripts, often telemprompted. Professionals have time to prepare, because it’s their day job. I talk off the cuff. Most of my videos, I record at 1am or 2am, as that’s often the only time I have available. And on this particular show, they had no definite opening question for me, they just expected me to start talking. So, please don’t evaluate me by your standards, just enjoy it if you can.
First, your style of presentation is both unique and way overdue. Most of the folks in alternative internet media are either flamethrowers or “measured” malcontents. You talk like the guy next to you at the bar who just tells it like it is and couldn’t care less what you think about his “personality.” We need more of this reality because we are otherwise drowning in an epidemic of faux communication.
Second, as you have pointed out, there is a tsunami approaching and Ukraine will become a sideshow very soon. It’s hard to play Monday-morning military strategist when a wall of water sweeps in through your front door. Ukraine is a terrible tragedy that has generated tens of thousands (maybe even hundreds of thousands) of widows and orphans. And it was perpetrated by the US government with deliberate malice.
Third, we have been too affluent for too long and this has made us soft, which is a much bigger problem than anyone wants to admit. Being fat and lazy will not keep you vertical when the hardship tsunami arrives. People will soon be looking for real leadership and tangible solutions, not endless idealistic ruminations about abstract and arcane minutiae. Please allow me to demonstrate. Get out of the big city now.
Another great analysis on the Ukraine by Jacob Dreizin on 2 Mike’s podcast. Urge everyone to watch it. Like to see Jacob Dreizin back on the Duran, Jackson Hinkle, Jimmy Dore or rven the grayzone. His analysis of events is right on the money.
IDK, the slow steady progress has not pushed NATO to become directly involved. It has given the Russians the time and space to as you acknowledge to not only demilitarise Ukraine but also Europe and the USA to some extent, plus cause all sorts of economic havoc in Europe. If the Euro collapses then I would expect a lot of violence, especially from the “new Europeans” who expected to be taken care of. I don’t know what will happen in the UK, but I doubt things can be turned around while the current political class continues to exist.
Never heard of the 2 Mikes before.
And I am not a fan of reckless political appeal as practiced by the “Col.” Mike, though, I found Scheuer to be measured and informed.
I have a different take on one reason why Russia is going slow, though I agree with all of your points above. Russia said they had to demilitarize Ukraine, as as Ukraine is a proxy NATO member, that means demilitarize NATO. They have sucked enough weapons out of western Europe to where they can more easily destroy them. If they were in Western Ukraine or France for that matter, then it would be much harder. Next they are crushing the EU and USA economy so that the military and logistics can’t be easily replace. Finally they may well bring about regime change (do we still call the fake show an election?) in North America if they really pooch the economy. Their partner, China, may well find out the real cost of Russian support is the wiping out of demand in the market China exports to. Russia seems to be lucky in the draw of the cards, particularly if new variants get nasty as predicted. If anything, this is going faster than I predicted it would.
A very good comment.
Jacob, this was a superb presentation on your part. Just a couple of quick comments. One: it’s well-known in the Ukraine that Zelensky has a property in Miami , FL and a ‘palace’ in Italy. Second: it’s not true anymore that the 2 oceans are protecting the US from a foreign attack. It used to be the case for a long time, but it’s not so anymore. Your Colonel Mike is embarrassing himself by displaying his ignorance of the fact that Russia for a number of years now has had SEVERAL weapons that can reach any part of the US (supersonic Zircon and hyper-sonic Poseidon are just 2 examples). There’s a great blog by a weapons expert Andrei Martyanov (who wrote several books on Russian newest weapon systems): https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/. Maybe you could point your Mikes in its direction.
Andrei Martyanov is indeed a good source his knowledge comes from inside, advice people to look for him.
Thanks. Martyanov is a competent commentator, probably fun to watch if you can tolerate the nonstop “Mother Russia” schtick (which I can’t.) But there is zero evidence that he is a “weapons expert.” Supposedly he was a Soviet navy lieutenant or some such, perhaps 40 years ago (although this is completely unverifiable outside of Russia, we’ll never know.) He may be good at writing about technical capabilities of aerospace weaponry, the same way I am good about writing and talking about a lot of things (doesn’t make me an expert.)
Yes, I remember Russian ex-colonel Trukhan has said on a livestream that Russia wants to draw out as much Ukrainian/NATO hardware to the east because it’ll be easier for Russia
Wali the canadian sniper said it was a war of machines, not a war of men. Is that not why Russia dont use that many men on the ground and prefer artillery, drones, and tanks?
What is the game now? Pushing for demilitarization of the world, that will lead in making NATO remilitarize itself by building new infratructures for producing more equipement, and then lead to a total war of the east and west blocs?
Do you think Russia will be containd only because the West will provide equipement all the time to Ukraine? Will this not push Russia to destroy entirely Ukraine, and may be even more?
Isn’t this what Scott Ritter essentially said during his “pivot”? Russia will still win but it will cost a lot more Russian and Ukrainian lives and a lot more destruction.
Which pivot? Ritter’s pivoted so many times I can’t keep count. I am not being snarky.