Please hear the below update…..
…..on additional desynchronized elements…..
…..of The Big CounterOffensive.
(Two minor corrections or clarifications: (1) “Bagration” took place mostly in the Belarussian SSR. There was a major, roughly concurrent operation in the western Ukrainian SSR, but it did not fall under Bagration, per se. (2) We don’t know if the Russian aircraft losses of May 13th were caused by air-to-air or surface-to-air fire, or some of both. I was just speculating, based on what I’d read and seen at the time. Nonetheless, as I mention in the audio several times, it’s clearly “new weapons or tactics”, and not just coincidentally timed.)
To the laggards…..
Judging by the metrics…..
Many of you haven’t yet gotten to my last post.
Please, check it out.
I will be following up on the immigration issue, shortly…..
…..with a VIDEO.
You don’t want to have missed…..
…..this past Friday’s “prequel.”
I anticipate on publishing shorter posts…..
…..every day or two…..
…..over this coming week.
Please check back every day.
Don’t fall behind!
Uncle Dreizin Wants YOU!
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Responding to my last post…..
Two different commenters…..
…..recommended the “Shadowstats” website.
(The Shadowstats guy has been trumpeting higher-than-the-Government-admits inflation for at least 15 years.)
I answered one of them, as follows:
(“CPI” refers to “inflation.”)
“Shadowstats” obviously just makes shit up.
Anyone who thinks that some lone blogger can tell you “scientifically” what the real GDP, CPI, and unemployment are, has deformities with their critical thinking.
For the CPI specifically, this guy claims to use “1970’s”, pre-fudge methodology… but where is it?
I never saw any methodology on his site. I can see he’s capable of making line graphs in Excel, that’s it. There’s nothing behind his curtain.
I’ll just go with my own observations, thank you. That’s the only “methodology” I need. I may be a few points off, but CPI is subjective anyway, it depends on what you buy. My CPI is not your CPI. Any “average consumer basket” is not a legitimate construct to begin with.
Supposedly they get a contractor to survey tens of thousands of people over some months or longer, but I’ve never been asked, and I’m not aware that anyone I’ve ever known has been asked, nor have I ever read of anyone writing about the experience, anywhere, ever. Hence, I must conclude, the entire concept is to some extent BS.
The Shadowstats guy just tries to out-BS the BS, from the comfort of his own keyboard. He has no fucking “methodology.” I wouldn’t pay a dime for his annual subscription.
Too many people take their preferred “alternative” sources as gospel. Just because it’s not the MSM or the Government, doesn’t mean it’s RIGHT.
Please give me a financial pat on the back, make this all worth my time, here.
If you haven’t already, and you’re not conceptually opposed to the medium, please sign up to my Twitter.
Please also familiarize yourself with my much-improved, rationalized, more concise Comments Policy, below. It applies to everyone, including YOU. There may be slight updates to this policy in each new post. Please be aware. I hate to have to delete comments, but, sadly, I do it all the time.
I really appreciate good comments. Many people come back here, in-between posts, just to read the comments. If you help me entertain them, you’re my hero. A few rules: This is not a chat board. Your comment must primarily, largely involve and directly touch upon something that, or someone whom, I wrote about in the post you’re commenting on. Life reminiscences (if relevant), relating your relevant personal experiences, your job, your commie college girlfriend, your idiot family members, your Ukrainian coworker, etc., if relevant, are all HIGHLY encouraged. The most interesting content here… is YOU. The only exceptions to the on-topic requirement, are if you’re calling attention to a technical problem with the site, or briefly stating how much you love the content or this Comments Policy. Don’t try to “legitimize” an off-topic comment by throwing in some little pre-thought or afterthought about what I wrote. NO DISCUSSIONS THAT STRAY FROM MY TOPICS. My topics are the only common denominator here, and while it may amuse you, most readers have no interest in your thoughts on the Punic wars, or on some guy named Serge or whatever; it’s your way to kill your own time, but it adds no value for others. Which means, if you’re responding to someone else’s comment, your response must still relate directly to one of my topics. Doesn’t matter how much you generously donated, these rules apply equally to everyone. 350 word limit, no exceptions, 351 words won’t be published, sorry. No rambling. If you’re not sure what “rambling” is, ask yourself, “Are others likely to understand and appreciate or enjoy my comment, or am I merely jerking off“? Nazis, commies, worshipful groupies of Mercouris/Johnson/etc., Jew baiters/haters, FBI agents-provocateurs, guys who forgot to take their Ritalin, passive-aggressive needling of the sysop or of other commenters, random questions that have no bearing on what I wrote (to include requests for my view on some commentator I’ve never heard of), no-punctuation writing by the smartphone generation, silly “Nadsat” lingo picked up from “The Saker” website, use of the BS term “SMO“, and autistic bitching about the satanic USA and its evil pedo pervert elites and how they must be killed (or other bile in that vein), will not be tolerated. If you’ve got issues, this is not your “let it go” zone. Don’t write anything here, that your therapist wouldn’t approve of. Thank you!
Can someone please educate me as to the pros and cons of depleted uranium?
Hi Jacob. Great blog, read it regularly, appreciate the inside view on US affairs and your analysis of the situation in the Ukraine. there ist just one thing, that i dont quite agree on. You keep writing, the Ukraine didn’t have air support for their army. however, there have been quite a few reports about poland giving them MIGs from old GDR stock. Germany had to be asked for consent, so it was in German news as well:
“I keep writing…..” What the fuck are you talking about??? I never wrote that the Ukraine has no air force. I said the opposite, many times. What the hell is wrong with you?
Bagraton according to “Soviet Storm’ series. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJAEdLnZsgI
You cannot be serious. Are there really worshippers of Alexander Mercouris? Mr. Pinworms, Mr. Tugonmynoseconstantly, Mr. Fidgets, Mr. Whatishedoingunderthatdesk?
I have to admit I TRY to sit through the mans daily podcast that generally runs a bit over 60 minutes but, as God is my witness I usually nod off about 10 minutes in and awaken just prior to his :thats all for me today”.
If there truly are “worshippers” of the guy then we truly are doomed.
I think you guys are too hard on Mercouris. Try using his post as a ´radio´ while you do other stuff. You cannot seriously sit and watch him all the way through. (Some weeks ago I caught a glimpse of him actually drooling…) As for him being too soft on the more important topics, yeah sure, but in there, somewhere, you can find critical thinking on many a topic. Besides – the common man will blow his fuses going straight to Dreizin, while if he is being slow walked into serious reporting by way of Duran, the new Atlas and so on, maybe one day he might pick up Dreizin. Also, Mercouris is clearly an enthusiast in what he do and I give him credit for that, I mean – the guy is talking till he’s gasping for air. 🙂
He’s background noise for exercise, nothing more, nothing less
Agreed, that’s the only way I listen to the guy now
Hello. Why do you listen to him at all?
Geopolitics and such is not my area of expertise, so sometimes I hear some new to me thoughts from him. Doesn’t mean I listen to everything he says, of course, and I have no objections to what you say about the guy.
I usually listen to The Duran while I’m cooking or doing housework.
Mercuris emphasises in full the main problem of the “non main stream meadia” in the age when the unorthodoxy is considered a threat: its (mainly) a collection of opportunists with dubious credibility (and talent) who get worshipped because the “Tuckers” are shadow banned or silenced. Sometime ago he (AM) said to have been on some “business tour” in the UK and claimed the hotel he stayed in did not have hot water and that the heating was shut down (in a cold season). He attributed that to the energy crisis, backfires of the sanctions on Russia. It portrait the UK as some sort of a disaster area, which I assume many listeners believed it is. I happened to have visited the UK that time, I am poorer than AM, and saw no trace of such deterioration in standards. His hotel might have been run down, yes, but his cover story and how he linked it to the geopolitical situation were laughable.
The Duran is far better than the BBC whatever you think.
Thanks for the great reporting!!!
I check your site several times a day, starving for your information.
My current interest are the 2 generals, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi and General sysriski (sp?). Where could they be. Were they purposefully targeted for retribution because of the attack on the Kremlin?
A fascinating conjecture, one can only guess.
love your commentary, I am going to pay you, you do a great job, but I am struggling with cash myself, you are of course spot on with everything you say
If you’re broke, don’t worry about paying me, just “like” all my stuff on Twitter. Scroll down and like everything.
Audio updates are superior.
Audio updates are better.
Updates in audio form are of higher quality.
Audio-based updates are superior to other forms of updates.
There is a superiority in using audio updates over other update methods.
Audio updates are the best option.
Audio updates outperform other types of updates.
When it comes to updates, audio is the superior choice.
Nothing beats audio updates in terms of quality.
Audio updates are the preferred option.
Audio updates are more effective than other forms of updates.
I like the audio updates.
Could you please tell us how you really feel about the audio updates?
I for one would prefer to read your reports..
Prefer audio. I can’t always read the emails but can always listen. At the gym, driving, ….
I use the Cleveland Fed Median CPI. It’s a median of the observed price changes in the BLS basket of goods. It avoids the weighting issues in the CPI, but it tracks CPI fairly closely.
Median CPI (clevelandfed.org)
Your anlaysis seems spot on regarding the Ukraine poor timing. Russians have significant learning and adapting opportunity now re: new tactics and missiles. Meanwhile, the Russians have destroyed probably close to $1B in military equipment and munitions of the Ukraine military in just the past week. Very juicy strikes in Central and West Ukraine. The Russians are also mass producing Kinzahls and you can assume they will be used in much greater volume for very high return targets.
Stop being critical of somebody selling snake oil – if he told everyone how he comes up with his insights, snakes would become endangered species and he’d be out of a job overnight!
As a scientist, here’s what I have to say:
I believe the unemployment #’s is simply lifted from the already dubious Bureau of Labor Sadistics 😵💫 “U” number that has the highest number (~26% last time???).
Inflation can be gleaned from taking the published and obviously not just cooked, but pan fried and left in a hot oven for a week, number that excludes all the important parts, like energy,Ukrainian loss rates in Bakhmut, and plugging in those parameters, including the IQ points lost by Brandon for that period, to arrive at something just as good as what the MSM vomits forth.
On second thought, he might be right! 🤣🤣🤣
Great update.. nice to have some common sense reporting.
Hey Jacob! That misfire is reminiscent of the LOTR Fellowship of the Ring scene when Merry and Pippin steal the giant dragon firework from Gandalf at Bilbo’s birthday party and it goes off at the wrong time lol
Thanks for moving to smaller but more regular updates. Until a minute ago I had a head-ach and was starting to get the shakes.
Everyone who sells snake oil is generally selling a black box wherein some kind of magic happens. Shadowstats.
The 4 shoot downs yesterday are a concern. Word on the street is the helicopters were tasked with radio/radar jamming to cover the SU35, which was covering the SU34 on a routine bombing run. So, the order of the shoot downs would make sense if this was the case. First the helicopters, perhaps using stingers by some special forces far in Russian territory, then likely SAMs to take out the SU35/34s. Gutsy move by whatever special forces were that far into Russia.
Hi Jacob, I‘m up to date with all your posts but I left Twitter this weekend after the announcement of the new CEO. No thanks. I left and returned when it looked like Musk was pulling it back on track but this creature looks like a disaster. So, no likes from me there, sorry. What do you think about the Khmelnitsky hit? My husband thinks it was a nuc but I don‘t. There was definitely hundreds of tons of munitions, fuel and lubricants hit but I don‘t see a ground blast wave and we‘d be hearing about fall-out by now. But what a sight! Holy moly.
I worked for a big international org which used a methodology for Cost of Living Surveys which had nothing to do with surveying people and their costs but reviewing a list of items (average consumer basket), from rentals on 2 bedrooms in the area, through average health care costs, internet, fuel, heat, electricity, hardware costs (computers, tvs and such), to a number of groceries. It was a list of close to 200 items. The surveyors (contractors, HR and staff reps) would use local government data if available and also check the local shops and providers for the (regular) prices they could find there. Since the methodology was based on the US system, I‘m guessing that CPI and such data is produced in similar ways. As you say, everyone has a different shopping list „basket“, they also look for bargains, some have expensive health issues and live very differently. These survey results end up representing no one.
Thanks for everything you do.
Maybe they are using this conflict to see how their weapons will perform under an advance Air Defense system and colect some data? Of course, poor Ukrainians that are the lab rats while Elensky is touring europe.
Let’s please stop with the elensky / Elensky nonsense. It’s retarded. I’ll have to update my Comments Policy again.
True… Never happen again !
re: Stupid dance
WaPo yesterday (13th May) published an article about .elensky proposing to blow up the Druzhba oil pipeline to Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia and even Austria and Germany (Bayern).
Is publishing in MSM, that Kiev plotted to sabotage critical infrastructure of NATO countries another mark of death?
Let’s please stop with the elensky / Elensky nonsense. It’s retarded. I’ll have to update my Comments Policy again.
Yes, please do. The other Alex got that crap started last year and seemed to never stop. I’m guessing he still does it, Back when I was a listener of the “Alex’s” that would drive me crazy. Good comment update, and thank you Jacob, I used to waste a lot of time listening to their “entertainment”.
I finally had to stop listening to him because of the stupid bidenopolis crap in addition to the other reasons lol
Is 卐elensky ok (asking for a friend ;-D ).