(Congressional staff and others who don’t have much time, don’t want to read the details on Russian army movements etc., can skip to the last three or four paragraphs for the bottom line.)
The talks with Russia about its proposed non-aggression pact did not go well. Washington has offered Russia some small trinkets (I’ll spare you the details), but it can’t commit to reject NATO membership for Ukraine, or not to station forces in eastern Europe (Poland, etc.), as that would mean the end of NATO expansion, and if you know anything about brands and market share in the 21st century, if you‘re not growing then you are dying, simple as that.
The NATO structure is the main vehicle for U.S. military-political hegemony in Europe, and NATO’s sole purpose now is to gobble up everything, like the Blob—Ukraine and Georgia have been invited, and if that works out, Armenia and potentially moving into Central Asia (Kazakhstan has hosted wargames with the U.S. and NATO since 2006), by which time, Putin’s Russia would be long gone anyway.
By way of threats and ultimatums, the Russians have brought Uncle Sam to the table, and have negotiated mostly to convince Europe (first off, Germany and France) that the U.S. isn’t serious about making any deal, and that Washington aims to involve that entire continent in a sanctions/economic war it doesn’t want or need. Is that my analysis? No, it’s just what I’ve read in Russian sources. Despite what you might have heard about the Russian sphinx, everything they do is on the surface and well-advertised in advance. It’s just that some geniuses here are always too dense to listen. Our few remaining “smart” Cold Warriors—e.g., Kissinger, Harald Malmgren—are very old, and no one’s asking them for anything.
As for Team Brandon, it’s obvious they’ve boxed themselves in to a corner.
Trump would never have cornered himself like this.
It’s not just that they’ve willingly, aggressively exacerbated new Cold Wars with both Russia and China. What they’ve also done is promised Russia “apocalyptic” sanctions if there’s any further move against the Ukraine. So, if Putin goes in and takes 10 percent of that country, or if he takes half and goes all the way to Kiev and bounces their ex-comedian (literally), bizzarro mini-Napoleon, Putin-light autocrat president and turns the place into Pooty Park, the sanctions would be the same.
Hmmm. Granted, I’m a product of our public school system, but if I was Putin, what would I do, seeing as the “punishment” is going to be the same regardless?
I would do what I want.
Brandon’s people—evidently, amateurs—have given up all leverage because they have no sliding scale of consequences; it’s all or nothing.
I can tell you, based on what I’m reading in Russian, top people in Moscow are talking about this. It’s like, “If we need to go, might as well go big.”
(In that context, recent video is available of Russian tank trains moving from the Far East westwards—they have left their China border undefended and are preparing to throw everything, literally almost their entire professional/non-conscript army component, at Uncle Sam’s foster-care regime in the Ukraine. If you include what was already moved to the Ukrainian border two months ago, this has to be the biggest redeployment of forces within current Russian territory since the “first” Cold War, if not World War II.)
Russia also knows most of Europe is not reliably seated on Uncle Sam’s bandwagon—it’s so busy stomping its own citizens with corona-fascist madness, it doesn’t have the presence of mind for much else, not to mention it’s winter and they forgot to stock up on gas, and France’s nuclear power sector is suddenly falling apart, and there’s a longer list but we’ll leave it at that. The European clown car can only handle so many crises.
It’s the Season of Putin, and if it comes to a Russia-Ukraine war, Brandon/Kambodia have already lost. Whatever happens, it’s going to come out looking really bad. Sure, Congressional Republicans can prop up Brandon with some war bluster, help the MSM make him out to be another Roosevelt or Churchill, go on TV and wave a sharp stick at Pooty. But, it’s best to sit this one out.
Congressional GOP people: If it gets really nasty over there,
your voting base—not the Karens you have to chase after sometimes, or the rich rainbows the RNC is running down for donations, but your REAL voting base (the one you forget about sometimes)—will RELISH seeing Brandon humiliated.
You’d be fools to get in the way and pretend you don’t enjoy it too.
In more detail, here’s how it’s likely to go. If Russia moves in, the lights go out and the phones go out (in the Ukraine, hopefully not here but who knows?) Most likely, at that time there will be U.S. spy planes (both manned and unmanned) flying over the Donbass and near Russia’s Black Sea coast, just as there are today. There will be U.S. and British ships just off Russia’s shores, maybe even inside Russia’s 12-mile sovereign coastal zone around Crimea (like the Brits did a few months ago, a dangerous stunt, and yes I know that’s not considered to be Russian water under “international law.”)
There may still be U.S. contractors, mercenaries, “advisors” (mostly, radio/electronic warfare specialists) near the front line, who were not evacuated in time. There will be U.S. citizens all over the place, raising a stink over social media about not getting evacuated (tweeting “Oh my gaawwd, the Russians are coming, the Russians are here, oh my gawwwwd, help me Congressman.”) After a few days, there could be members of Congress entering the Ukraine to theatrically rescue “stranded Americans”, as in Afghanistan. It could be a very touchy situation.
Schumer and Pelosi, being Schumer and Pelosi, may very well resolve to milk a Russian invasion for all it’s worth, calling a Joint Emergency Session of Congress to pass some sanctions—perhaps resurrecting Ted Cruz’s filibustered sanctions bill as their own—and maybe even authorize the use of force (of course, it’s irrelevant what they say or do—any American ship or aircraft will open or return fire if its commander feels threatened, it if hasn’t wisely been ordered out of the area in advance.)
If that happens, Republican leaders will be expected to stand side-by-side (literally) with the Great Crisis Leaders, Brandon and Kampuchea, and look super loyal and solemn for the cameras. I am telling their staff now, I don’t know who but I know some must be reading (I am sending to hundreds of them):
You had better understand this may be coming, you better have a plan on how to react, because your voting base is NOT behind this in the least, and you don’t want to give Brandon/Kombucha a TEN-POINT BUMP IN THE POLLS (fleeting as it would be, but they’d use their five minutes of glory to push HR1, “democracy reform” and whatever else) because all the swing voters would figure “hey, we’re all on the same side again now” (we’re not, we are not, don’t you forget it, please don’t hand the Enemy any more power—the only one who can hand them a lifeline is YOU!!!)
Respectfully, you need to huddle and game this out for yourselves NOW.