The below video says everything there is to say about the Ukraine.
This genius is passing off a destroyed T-64BM “Bulat” tank of the Ukrainian army—easily identifiable by the gently-sloping, add-on metal armor plates on its turret—as destroyed Russian equipment.
The tank’s main body lies off the road, near a blown-up Gaz-66 truck, which has been largely phased out of Russian army service, and is much more likely to be (or have been!) Ukrainian property.
The speaker/presenter is likely to be a Territorial Defense militiaman, not a regular army soldier.
There may be Ukrainian bodies (or pieces thereof) left in that tank or nearby.
He doesn’t have a clue.
I’ve even seen a Ukrainian news crew passing off dead Ukrainian soldiers as Russian.
It’s a big fantasy.
Hey, whatever works!
I must admit now, the situation with the Ukrainian aerial view of a “destroyed Russian batallion” along the Severskii Donets river near Belogorovka, is more complicated than I thought.
Showing ground photos of the area, CNN presented two blown-up (Ukrainian) T-64 tanks as Russian.
Clearly, there was lots of destroyed Russian hardware there.
But I had strongly implied it was all Russian, and that was not the case.
If “even” the Dreizin Report can be wrong on this count, what can you expect of CNN?
But, there’s more to it.
You see, this video fool went into a village, and saw destroyed equipment from his side, and assumed it was Russian.
What does that say about Ukrainian “command and control”?
Of course, the Territorial Defense militia is just raw meat to plug holes in the front, here and there.
Still, you’d think someone could at least tell them what’s going on.
Not in this case!
We hear of so many alleged problems on the Russian side.
They are starving, they are drunk, they don’t have enough fuel, their radios are not all encrypted, their cruise missiles are so inaccurate that…. that….
…..that the Ukraine has made posting videos of air and missile strikes on its targets, ILLEGAL.
LOL.
Yet, as sloshed and shabby as the Russian army is said to be…..
…..no Russian (or Donetsk or Lugansk) soldier would have come up with the above video.
No Russian soldier would have taken (and posted online!) these photos, either:
Only the Ukraine could have done it.
The fact is, the Ukrainian army that existed before February 24th, 2022, no longer exists.
Outside of those reduced units still pinned down in the Donbass, it’s mostly barely-trained militia, untrained draftees, and members of the (formerly) inactive reserve, with a thin superstructure of cadre.
Yes, some of them really want to fight, and will. (Some don’t, and won’t.)
But the professional army outside of the Donbass, no longer exists, as such.
This much is clear.
Many readers leave comments on my site, about Scott Ritter, how he’s suddenly freaking out over Russian prospects.
Look, there is no reason to bounce around.
My position has been clear.
On the current track, the Ukraine will be destroyed.
(And, we’ll be lucky if it’s only the Ukraine.)
As for Ritter, what credibility does he have?
He gave a talk at my grad school in early 2003, where he boldly declared the USA would do so poorly in Iraq, it would use NUCLEAR WEAPONS in that country.
Also, he was convicted and spent several years in jail for “exposing” himself over web camera to a Barrett Township, Pennsylvania police officer posing as a 15-year old girl, online.
If you didn’t know, now you know!
Scott Ritter has poor judgement.
I can’t compete with him in that department.
What I can do, is pursue reality.
Reality is not with the Ukraine.
The troops of the DPR and LPR also use T-64 tanks (captured from Ukrainian troops), as those are the only ones they know how to use. So, that blown up tank might have been “Russian”.
“ He gave a talk at my grad school in early 2003, where he boldly declared the USA would do so poorly in Iraq, it would use NUCLEAR WEAPONS in that country.”
One could argue that using Depleted Uranium in Fallujah constitutes a use of nuclear weapons.
Hahahah. No.
I would classify depleted uranium weapons as a slow acting weapon of mass destruction. I recall an account from a person living in a village in Serbia. In their village there was a bridge which was bombed by NATO. 12 people died as a direct result of the bombing. 10 years later half the population (~50 persons) of the village had died of cancer.
Nonsense. Half a village dead of cancer in 10 years? Come on. I studied DU in the army. DU by virtue of its depletion is only minimally radioactive. More likely, you would get heavy metal poisoning from ingesting it. DU is used in small quantities in penetrator tips on certain munitions. Unless that village was straight covered with bunker buster bombs, no, they won’t die from DU. This is simply a mythology.
My understanding of Ritter’s flip-flop on Ukraine is largely economic. The Russians spend about $47 billion US equivalent on defense annually. The USA has now spent (or allocated) about $54 billion to Ukraine in the past 3 months (both cash and equipment/support services). You can buy a whole lotta mercenaries and badass hardware with those dollars if you were so inclined. I think Ritter is saying that if he were given those resources as overall commander of the Ukraine side, he could make life hell for the Russians. He might not win in the end, but he could prolong the war and seriously put the hurt on them in the process. All that said, the Taliban did far more damage to US military prestige and reputation with far less budget, so there is precedent for a path to victory against a superior military opponent.
Blocs. Thats what will happen. Countries will group together in Blocks. My expertise is in Medicine and Finance. But I was a professional soldier too in the NZ Army, Infantry. There is a huge financial war going on as fierce as the one on the ground in Ukraine. The USA has NO principles. This is the emerging story. More nations are getting this and they will use the US dollar less and less. The USA and the West pretend to have the high moral ground but the truth is they will ally with anyone if it suits their needs, which is trying to grab / steal everything they want. And they want Russia, her resources. They will and have allied with Nazis, Isis, Al Qeaida, Nusra, anyone to plunder. ‘You’re with us or against us’..it should also read ‘whoever you are’. Nothing will be the same going forward. Nations will group together in Blocs tosurvive. A multipolar world emerges with the USA in a bloc of the 5 eyes primarily and parts of Europe. There is no strategic blunder on Russias part as mentioned above. Putins too expert a player. Russia to grow and become more powerful. Ukraine to be a smaller place in the future. US to spin its loss in Ukraine to save face. Sauds decouple a lot from US. Nato to remain but in practice, divided. France to gain more autonomy. East Europe to take the practical choices to eat and have fuel. It wil pay Rubles for that. Shulz to fall, as Germans quietly revolt. China happy with Russia. US markets keep crashing this year and into 2023. Up to 90% falls from the high in Nov 2021. Dollar suffers catastrophic falls as years of quantitaive easing reduces the dollars real value to historic lows. Its a second great depression. This will affect us all. China sees its chance …..
Are you sure that is T64M Bulat? From the pictures I see online the turret plates are wider on a Bulat. Plus, I’ve seen pictures of Russian tanks that have those numbers on there. Thank you for your blog. I very much enjoy reading it.
Hello! It’s very clearly a Bulat.
Sorry, what do you mean by “those numbers on there”?
In any case, I would not assume you are seeing Russian tanks unless it is Russia media telling you those are Russian tanks. There are Western sources (e.g., Oryx) that collect photos of literally all destroyed or seemingly abandoned equipment, and say it’s all Russian. These photos are then cited widely on Twitter etc.
Thanks Jacob for replying. When I looked up “Russian Tanks” I found the T90 tank whose turret looks similar to the one in the picture (or what was left of it). On a number of the pictures there were numbers in the same place as in the picture from your blog. Here is one link where I found a picture of a T90 with numbers in the same place:
https://warisboring.com/what-a-t-90-tank-looks-like-after-being-hit-with-a-tow-missile/
Also, when I looked up the Bulat the armor plates seemed to be wider. The plates in this photo on the ground are more narrow (similar in size to the T90). The tank is so beat up it’s kind of hard to tell but those three sections with numbers look a lot like it’s part of a T-90 turret. I’ll admit I’m not tank expert but I’d like to think I have a good eye. Thanks again.
I looked at your weblink. What you are seeing on the turret (in your link) is explosive-reactive applique armor (explosive shaped charges designed to blast outward to counteract incoming shaped charge projectiles.) Not flat metal plates as on the Bulat.
Well, I guess I see the explosive-reactive applique armor and think of it as similar to what I see on the tank in the blog. The pictures of Bulats that I see online don’t have the metal protusions (sections containing the numbers) that the tank in the blog photo has. Bulats appear to have flat metal plates. I just don’t see enough evidence of those flat and wide metal plates in the picture.
http://www.military-today.com/tanks/t64bm_bulat.htm
Here is what I’m looking at for my Bulat reference.
OK, thanks for keeping me honest. I will publish a correction, sometime this coming week. It turns out, the video shows a Russian T80BVM tank that was destroyed in Kharkov province in early March. As this is a relatively new video, the “real” story is they have so few recent achievements, they are making a news item out of 2+ month old wreckage.
Jacob,
Here is a link to an article with a photo of what appears to be that same tank covered with snow. It is dated on 2/27/22.
https://www.unilad.co.uk/news/ukraine-meaning-behind-the-z-on-russian-tanks-explained-20220227
I found this via a Google search for “Russian tanks”
Yes thanks. Did u see my other comment? It’s a Russian T-80BVM that was knockded out in Kharkov province, very early in the war. Thanks again.
Yes, I did see your other comment…just having a little trouble figuring out the direct reply option. I’m that much more of a fan of you for your willingness to make a correction. Plus, you’re helping me become a Russian tank expert! : )
Haha. With the internet, we are all experts in everything now.
Scott is finally coming around to what I have always thought of this conflict.Moscow may win tactical battles like in the Donbass but its unlikely to prevail in the overall strategic political war.I see this war like the US experience in Vietnam.The United States won the tactical battles in Vietnam but lost the overall strategic war as massive Soviet weapons supplies to the North Vietnamese frustrated the US (just like NATO supplies are causing problems for the Russians) and the Russian operation in Ukraine has just made the Ukrainians more antagonistic and even more Nazified than before similar to how determined the Vietcong were against the US.The best hope for Moscow is to eject the radical Ukrainians from the East and South where ethic Russians have been mistreated.Western Ukraine where ethnic Ukrainians reside will never be demilitarized as NATO will just keep pumping weapons there and possibly never be deNazified and if Russia ventures into the Western Ukraine they will face fierce endless partisan resistance which they cannot win.
Another strategic loss for Russia is that instead of preventing NATO Eastward expansion they encouraged it.Sure I oppose NATOs Eastward push but harsh reality is it was inevitable that it would happen.Nothing really Russia can do to stop Finland and Sweden’s eventual joining of NATO.Its sad and sickening but its reality.
Its easy to get it right in this war without stress by using guidelines 1/ Ukraine lies all the time. 2/ Ukraine lies all the time 3/ The US still cant be trusted so now thats a permanent rule. The USA cant be trusted 3/ The coming Game changer: Food shortages. This will show the dumbness of the West and just how much Russia is winning: Rubles for Food if they are lucky. They will be lucky to get this option. Make your choice. Starve or pay rubles. You cant sanction Russia at these levels then expect food deliveries like Schultz expects…he says ….that Russia owes a duty to the world to provide fuel. Did the Klutz not consider this earlier? I used to think German leaders were sharp. Merkel ‘let the muslims in’ and this moron are killing Germany. The food shortage if not amielerarted by Russia will have citizens on the streets in the West. Real Regime change starts that way. People are already pissed about Covid amd big pharmacy Mafia. WTF was in that vaccine? I still get fevers 4 months later. Im an RN thats not a vaccine. 4/ Russia will get stronger and stronger militarily. They now have a massive amount of battle experience. This is a big war. Russia WILL BE adapting and figuring out the best way forward in this new mix of warfare with so much involvement of missiles, drones and satelites. What tactics work, what weapons work best, whats needed. Clearly its going to involve drones, probably autonomous drones. Id love to know how well Russias electronic warfare gear is working. And that leads to the next point. Patience. Nowdays I turn off and later look for the info that shows Russia is STILL winning. Its always there. Then I turn off again. If you cant know live whats going on, rather than endless speculation AFTER filtering out the UkieNatoUS BS which takes too long its better to trust your judgement and see how its palying out once or twice a day for a short time. Prediction. Ukie casualties will be huge.
Hi Jacob, I have a theory which I wanted to run by you.
After Ukraine, I think the Russians will go back to the US / NATO and tell them to get out of the Baltics. Else our intimately familiar “military/technical” measures.
The Americans were the first to run away from Ukraine in January. Plevat’ hoteli on their 10 years of incessant mantra of “standing shoulder-to-shoulder” with the Ukrainians.
I’m betting that they’ll make feet… faster than in Ukraine. Again, plevat’ na kakoi-to Art 5. They are setting themselves up for an utter and final humiliation. The few tens of Ks NATO troops don’t stand a chance, the European armies are literally non-existent while the US cannot resupply across the Atlantic and the Baltic…
Will they go nuclear? Da kogo vy smeshite? The going rate for Moscow is NY, Peterburg protiv LA? What about Paris? I’d say Chelyabinsk haha, and Vladivostok vs Tokyo LMAO. In reality, the nuclear parity is no parity at all because one side stands to lose 20 new shining chips while all the other’s got is a cracked dirty POS..
This could be accompanied by a threat to cut off the gas/oil/wheat unless the West removes some of its sanctions, mainly the financial ones – CB reserves? There is no point for the Russians to sell their resources in EUR and USD because there is no demand for EUR and USD in Russia. There is no demand because the West sanctioned almost everything that the Russians need from the West (tech, aviation, etc). The capital flight courtesy of the oligarchs is over now.
What do you think?
“After Ukraine, I think the Russians will go back to the US / NATO and tell them to get out of the Baltics. Else our intimately familiar “military/technical” measures.”
I agree.
Putin will take steps to ensure the security of Kalinengrad and the Baltic.
It’s dangerous, could make the situation worse. IMO Europeans are more likely to turn to a Caesar or Hitler than a Washington.
Hi there! Thanks a lot for your analysis! Before that I usually listened to the Ritter – until recent comment. He just analysed the fact that Finland going to join NATO. And what he suggest – is that Russia will invade Finland… OMG. He does not know Russia. He seems does not judge properly on the facts. Even myself – being Russian, but not living in Russia for a long time – I do not not see the necessity for Russia to do so… And once again – thanks for this site! So far your comments are spot on! 🙂
I am not so sure regarding Finland.
If Finland breaks its 1992 agreement with Russia, all bets are off.
Russia will not forget.
I suspect that Putin has suggested to the Finnish PM and defense minister that they read the small print on that agreement very carefully.
I think nobody here would want to deny the fact, that Scott Ritter is a man with very intimate knowledge about weapons of mass destruction and particularly about the details of the potential use, the protocol involved, both in Russia and the US and above all a clear understanding of the absolutely devastating effects of any attempt of actually using them in an armed conflict, no matter how “limited”the initial intent may be. Considering the situation we find us in right now, whith a state of war between the two major nuclear powers has being described already as a factual reality by a number of political exponents on the side of NATO/US and only lacking the official declaration of war from both sides, I find it very much understandable when someone like him (Scott Ritter) at some point in the ongoing debate over proper analysis of the constantly developping events, looses his cool and overall solid and objective composure. Even the most naive among us amateurs are aware that armageddon, meaning the full and complete annihilation of mankind, together with most of all other life on the planet could be waiting just around the nearest corner and the time between receiving notice and final impact of those dreaded nukes would be half an hour at best, and we all might take five minutes or so off from our busy schedule as armchair generals and send a short email to our respective political representatives to inform them about our profound discomfort over their failure to make a serious incursion on behalf of peace on all fronts combined with the stern warning, that they would loose our vote in case of Ragnarök preceding the next election.
And yes, exposing yourself to a 17 year old girl in some steamy internet chatroom is totally inapropriate and inacceptable behaviour for anyone who considers himself to be an officer and a gentleman but by no means you qualify by such an action as a pedophile or some other type of sexual pervert. I think it is a clear breach of common etiquette in most places across the world, but still it usually is not a direct violation of the law. at least such is the case here in Switzerland where mutually agreed sexual activities are legal if both participants are above the age of 16. There are worse crimes being committed in the name of love by many among us than taking and sending stupid dick pics to some random chick over the internet. and the absence of any such evidence being stored on one of the servers of the NSAFBICIADHSATFNAMBLA or Youporn, is no proof or even an indicator of a persons integrity or expertise on military matters.
PS As an act of demonstative solidarity with the person of Scott Ritter I hereby declare my firm intention to delete my account at teenagebigtits.com
(1) Thanks for your comment!
(2) Ritter’s jailbait claimed to be 15, not 17.
(3) In early 2003 (in my own physical presence) he declaimed the USA would do so poorly in Iraq, that it would use nuclear weapons in/against Iraq. He was not speaking about any great power conflict. He was speaking about the Iraq war.
(4) Saying that Russia (with all its other problems) would launch an unprovoked war against Finland, is crazy and suggests an emotional state, not any serious analytical thinking.
Jaco what do you mean when you say
“(And, we’ll be lucky if it’s only the Ukraine.)
Reality is not with the Ukraine.”
What’s next after Ukraine?
What does it mean “Reality is not with Ukraine”?
Thank you fir the great work i knew about your blog from Alexander on The Duran
The tank marking ‘736’ indicates it is from the (Russian) 106th Guards Tula Red Banner Order of Kutuzov Airborne Division.
LOL, nonsense, sorry. You heard this on Ukrainian Twitter? Oryx? The Bulat is a strictly Ukrainian modification of the T64 line, which line in any case has been retired by Russia, by all accounts. Not to mention that Russia’s airborne forces have VERY few tanks to begin with. I could see hypothetically maybe a captured Bulat being fielded by Donetsk or Lugansk forces, but the presenter states twice that these were “Muscovites”, not “separatists.”
I had been aware of Scott’ Ritter’s perverse attraction to teenage girls, but that never got in the way of my admiring his admirable public actions. Same with MLK and his perverse attraction to orgies.Same with JFK and his perverse attraction to serial adultery. How many otherwise admirable men and women have had feet of clay when it comes to sex? What was that saying about throwing the first stone? Which is not to say that molesting a little child is not something of an entirely different order. There’s that other saying about the sea and the millstone.
But it all comes back to the question of Ritter’s capacity for judgment. When a man of his age and experience in the world does something this supinely stupid, one has to wonder what other folly he might be capable of. His actions were sinful but, like you, I’m fully aware that we’re all given to sinning, although I perhaps not to sinning of this precise nature. But after saying that and after granting that repentance for sin is always possible, still the question of judgment remains. Once a bloke has told you he’s convinced beyond further need for argument that the Earth’s flat, can you really trust any longer his advice about, say, the stock market or real estate purchases?
I read Gleb Bazov’s assessment of the CNN footage on his Slavyangrad channel. He thinks the destroyed vehicles presented by CNN are Ukrainian. See these two Telegram posts:
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/886
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/887
Defense Politics Asia produced an interesting video analyzing the Ukrainian photos and Russian drone footage of the destroyed Russian vehicles. Apparently, the intact vehicles were reclaimed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKX1MKW5wjE
In any case, both Ukrainian and Russian/LPR forces seem to be trying to cross the river and so far failing.
The only time I heard Ritter was on The Duran where he critiqued how the West has lost the ability to do high intensity combined arms combat vs. his time in the 1980’s. ie. we talk about combating a near peer opponent but haven’t trained nor had the exercises to practice it. That critique is creditable. Particularly when you see the quality of the upper echelon generals/admirals we have today. The US (which is the West) depends on air superiority. The Russians have a layered anti air system. How well it works is anyone’s conjecture. The Israeli’s seem to operate just fine against Syria but we don’t know how well integrated it is and these will be Russian operators of the equipment.
The Russians aren’t superhuman and the Ukrainians initially fielded capable motivated units. I do believe they thought initially that they could have decapitation strikes leading to a quick resolution with minimal damage to infrastructure ala 2014 “little green men” writ large. After that proved wrong, they have reverted to their base doctrine of pulverizing units before advancing. Artillery is the Russian strong suit.
One aspect that hasn’t been discussed is that Russia has to be careful with its troops. In WWI and WWII they could have high casualties human wave assaults because Russian families had multiple sons. Today’s environment frequently has only one son per mother so to loose him is a tragedy. Putin doesn’t want gold star moms demonstrating against him and the war and showing that he is careful with manpower blunts that potential.
I agree that late fall/winter will see the conclusion of this war. Empty store shelves, high gas, no heat in AMERICA will bring the neo-con project to a close. The United States has lost the ability to finance a war due to the debt load and inflation no longer being able to be exported.
could not agree more with you regarding ritter……i listened to the “new”…ritter and there is factually no basis to conclude anything regarding his arguments as presented….are applicable.yes…things change in war and sheet happens, but he sounds more like a random concern troll than an annalist of the facts……sadly he has fallen to any publicity is good publicity and believes all the attention he has been getting requires him to distinguish himself even if it means putting forth bad argument….
That pedo charge against Ritter is news to me. Wow is all I can say to that. I will say Ritter has said some things on YT vids that left me shaking my head.
Like many of us, Scott Ritter is human. Sometimes he’s right, sometimes he’s wrong. Sometimes his judgement stinks, sometimes it is extraordinary and he courageously fights the tide. Whether he is right or wrong in this case remains to be seen. Simply disagreeing would have been the preferable course.
Yeah, we’re all human. Some of us are pedo creeps with really poor judgement, and some of us are not. Get a grip. He’s not courageously fighting any tide, he’s just trying to stay relevant now.
I apologize for elaborating on this offtopic element of your comments. But I enjoy this kind of human behavior/interaction analysis, touching on some (behavior, expression and) psychological aspects.
IMO using Scott Ritter’s previous conviction to question his judgement on military operations doesn’t work well. It’s the method we’re used to from the MSN, governments and corporations when they are defending against critical voices. If that is the only thing they have I automatically suspect that the critique that person is voicing must be rock solid since the defense against it doesn’t deal with the points made. If the only reaction/defense to critique is this type of attempted character assassination it does the defense more harm than good IMO. For instance if mathematics professor Theodore (aka Ted) Kaczynski makes some statements related to mathematics and to counter that one points out he used to mail around IED/bombs that killed and hurt people that is trying to smear the messenger instead of the message. And that is one of the weaker arguments one can make when disagreeing with someone. Someone says something you disagree with but instead of addressing those points one responds like: “But do you know what the person that made those point has done in the past?” And then bringing up something totally unrelated to the subject of the disagreement.
Fortunately that isn’t the case concerning your critique regarding Scott Ritter and you did point out specific issues that you have with some of the statements Scott has made recently. Plus you pointed out specific statements that Scott has made talking about comparable subject matter previously that were pretty wild at the time he made them and turned out to be way off. That’s valid critique, supported by pointing out he has been wrong before with these kind of things.
Deducting a motive from Scott’s recent worries concerning Russia’s SMO is a guess. I doubt he has to inject some sensational stuff in his talks to stay relevant. AFAIK he is in pretty high demand in the independent media. And injecting sensational stuff just to stay relevant is a very questionable technique, since getting things wrong is more likely to damage one’s relevancy then enhancing it.
Yes, but he has poor judgement and therefore sometimes makes bad decisions and does dumb things you said. Maybe, but I can think of many other explanations that are just as likely to be true. Maybe he is just thinking out loud. Maybe he was in a different mood. Possibly some of the black propaganda against Russia´s SMO that reached him had some effect.
And probably his real motivations are a combination of various explanations, half of them operating on a subconscious level.
But my guess is one of his main motivations for voicing his opinions on these subject matters is that he enjoys it. Probably subconsciously his ego likes it too. And he wants to call out the lies and abysmal reporting we get from the MSN and the parties they represent. Also he doesn´t claim to be impeccable. Personally I think much of it comes down to the way people express themselves. Some have a more firm and definite way of speaking, no signs of doubt (i.e. The Saker, Andrei Martyanov, Scott Ritter). Others tend to express themselves with less certainty, preferably speaking of different options, some more likely then others (i.e. Alexander Mercouris Duran, Ryan Christian TLAV). In the end I know everything could be prefaced with something like ´in my opinion and based on the information I have up to this point, I think it is most likely that….’ But because that is the case with everything being said we tend to leave it out because it becomes tiring to start everything with such a disclaimer.
But concerning the type of subject matter you, Scott and others deal with I think you´re coming from the same direction with (at least in part) similar intentions. Which reminded me of some wise words I heard a long time ago: Always put the things you agree with first, and your differences second, in these kind of situations (leave the divide and rule to your common opponents). And with these type of situations I mean the few independent observers/analysts/commentators, like yourself, going against the current (or avalanche/deluge) of the official narrative propagated by a well oiled massive international media cartel. That uses every trick they could imagine to get an unfair advantage.
First there was a very long train of tanker wagons, I expected to see it in flames at any moment, but it was never seen again. Then, some Pole T-72 tanks appeared near Krivoy Rog. Then, howitzers appeared in Donbass. So, it’s true that russians are unable/unwilling to destroy trains before they carry the big loads of heavy weapons/fuel to the front. I don’t think it’s wise, and I’m sure it’s paid in dead russians. Moreover, *all* alt-commentators said those weapons quite probably never would make the trip to the front. They were all wrong.
So, Scott Ritter has perfect right to be wrong sometimes, too. Since it has a strong spine, enough to get out of the WMD spin even knowing he would become a target, I respect him a lot. No wonder somebody did an Assange to him. I should say Assange got the ultimate Ritter done to him by the same guys, for the same reasons. I can’t give any credibility to those charges, even if he admitted it. I have been told that admitting false charges is common in US justice system, should you don’t have enough money to get a good lawyer, paying dearly for years.
LOL, the second time at least, Ritter didn’t admit to any charges whatsoever, he still went to jail. As for who “Assanged” him, it was a bored Pennsylvania cop with nothing else to do. Not the CIA. Get over it. No one (other than freaks like me) even remembered his name in 2009, he was in oblivion. He’s a creep, who’s now just looking to be relevant again.
Ok, we obviously disagree about that guy, but I what I was really expecting were any thoughts you could have about, is the point about russians being seemingly unable/unwilling to destroy ukranian railways. At least in the W of Ukraine, even in central Ukrania too. I really can’t figure what the reason for it could be. I think NATO wouldn’t make that mistake
“No one (other than freaks like me) even remembered his name in 2009, he was in oblivion. ”
Wrong, very wrong. Not in oblivion to me, and I am not a freak, thank you very much! Nor to anyone who became seriously involved in and committed to trying to halt the Iraq disaster. I demo’d every weekend, I went to the huge worldwide demo in NYC and also to DC. I phonebanked prior to the Oct. 2002 vote on giving Bush war powers. I saw the huge danger that this country was in. Too bad, people like me turned out to be right.
I knew the Iraq WMD thing was a crock of shit from the get-go, and am on record in my (then) hometown as a member of a group that demo’d against the impending Iraq invasion starting in January 2003 carrying signs that called out Bush as a liar. The US PO tried to prohibit us from demo’ing, and I called the ACLU (then a different organization from the woke organization it has become) to get confirmation that were had the right to demo on federal property.
I knew that Powell, Rice, Bush et al. were lying up the wazoo.
Ritter was the only voice calling out the WMD lies and trying to stop the evil planned madness that became the Iraq invasion.
When his voice was silenced—let’s say, because of a tragic flaw—it was a tragic loss for the USA. He was forced to sit helplessly by. Whatever his personal flaws and lack of self=control, Ritter has seen the evil of the US govt up close and personal, the cesspool of official lies that undergirded the Iraq invasion. Remember, too, what happened to the English fellow, DAvid something, who called out the sexing up of the Iraq dossier in the UK. Mysteriously suicided. Ritter knows how these creeps play the game. they will dispatch anyone who is in their (has anyone heard anything of the Skripals lately?). I assume that the Iraq episode seared him, and his nearness to this evil potential may be behind his new assessment as to how far the USA is prepared to go to get its way. Maybe Ritter has Iraq War PTSD.
You are obviously getting the years mixed up. Ritter was not a visible part of the antiwar movement after the 2003 invasion of Iraq actually happened. His second arrest (that sent him to jail) was in 2009. By that time, he was in oblivion.
Ritter has been wrong about a lot of things. I noticed he had been on fewer shows recently. Perhaps his 180 gets him more attention. He’s been on three or four this week, so that probably did the trick for him. I doubt the guy is getting any serious inside intel. The howitzers he was crowing about got blown up quickly – so who cares?
The longer this drags on, and the longer supply chain disruptions continue, the worse things will get for the US and EU. I lived through 08. People were nowhere near as angry back then as they are now. Anger and desperation are spreading like wildfire. I was at the gas station and saw a woman crying in her car. On facebook, all the local chat groups are filled with threads of women desperately looking for baby formula. It’s just sad to see. Ritter’s proclamation that you can’t plan with that kind of turmoil is silly. People have planned around political and economic instability since time immemorial. Many nations have taken actions in war to exacerbate those tensions within their enemy to great effect. I’m quite sure the Kremlin has better information than Ritter. Could Russia lose? Sure, but I doubt Ritter would be the person to tell me about it.
I think these anti ship missiles being considered by the USA/NATO are going to be a “game changer”. Not on the ground per se, but definitely turn the tables in the Black Sea and dramatically escalate the conflict to the point where Russia may engage against NATO, although I’m not sure how they would fare after that. Thoughts?
We are not seing large surrenders from Ukraine side. And Russia is using a minute force in Ukraine. Scott Ritter make good points about this. The only way Russia can win this war is if Ukraine lose the will to fight. And they wont do that because they are under control of USA. Besides, Ukraine is poor and fighting the war give them access to unlimited money from USA. Why wouldnt they fight? Russia is reduced to minute tactical battles of small parts of territory in Donbas. That is not going to win no war.
Could we get some insight on the points of concern:
– tanks and howitzers are getting to the front line, while we expected they will be taken out earlier (and in general the enemy logistics will be sufficiently hindered to prevent that teleporting)
– fuel was supposed to deplete 4-6 weeks ago, and the military still moves around. even the population started the queues only recently
– I saw reports of 1-2 Ukr. planes shot down on the recent week, I thought they were all destroyed early and lack airfield + fuel anyway
Hundreds of strikes going on every day for 3 months, I thought the above would be impossible for long. I have a number of wild ideas but would rather learn something from experts.
Are the howitzers actually getting to Donbass? I have only heard of them being used in Kharkov region.
Just a simple observation from a 70+ year old Australian grandma who knows when something is right and when it is not. Scott Ritter “talks the talk” which sounds very impressive and is actually intimidating to those who believe the “experts”. Jacob Dreizen’s sensible and believable analysis on his website is backed up by actual on the ground videos and photos which support 100% what he says and then he also engages with his subscribers by reading and responding to pertinent comments. Scott Ritter does NONE of that. As somebody whose family has been destroyed by the leaders and experts (aka the Vietnam War) I am going with my gut feeling that Jacob Dreizen is the real deal … Scott Ritter is NOT!
Azov neo Nazi’s are not Nazi’s. In my mind they are like some hillbillies with a swastika tattoo wanting to portray a image of a bad ass, so others will think they are. They have stolen anothers name. Remember that there are those who muddy the waters and sow confusion. Are they really National Socialists with all these stickers? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSKqqw511do
The original Nazis (1920s) were also a bunch of tough clowns.
The nazis is MAGA voters. The heroes of Ukrain are only clan up their etno-state. They know (and changed) history, and saluting nazi collaborateors as Bandera and officaly declare them heroes of Ukrain. MSM have nazibranded Christian, conservative and Trump supporters as nazis. But people with Black SUN, Wolf Angle, or Swasikas tatooed are the god gays.
God gays? You’ve got to watch your spelling!
But people with “swastikas are….good GAYS.” Oh my! Carry on sailor!
It seems to me that some people have misconstrued Jacobs comments on Scott. I think that questions were asked re Scott’s commentaries and Jacob has responded with facts , no hit job just facts .As for Analysis Its for the individual to decide, though I would say that there have been times when I’ve thought that Jacob is a prophet or he’s webbed up with Intelligence, either way results speak for themselves, the refineries a perfect example. I totally agree with the winter prediction which I’ve seen no mention of elsewhere, definitely one to remember. As for predictions I have one, Zelensky should be very worried, he doesn’t realise he’s the fall guy and now the pigeons are circling and they are saying “Coup Coup” by the 11th June.
ritten gets more excited the more attention he gets, of course better trained men and equipment matter but so does morale, especially when they know equally trained and equipped and more experienced men got wrecked,not to mention strategy and tactics which seemed to have failed . i dont think the west will militarily intervein, they know theyve lost, their interest is shifting to china and as you say the corf will be back, the media keep mentioning it to keep it in the public conscience. i recon russia will take the east and south to odessa then stop and a possible military coup against zelenski, as the army will fear being so weak it will lead to land grabs by others and the total collapse of ukraine. but what do i know im no dreizin.
All sounds about right.
General Eric Olsen in Mariupol
For me the surprise about Ritter’s sea change in viewpoint is not the change itself, but the speed of the change. Typically viewpoints evolve. Over time as new or further information comes available beliefs can shift. But with Ritter it is as if he went to bed one night with one viewpoint and woke up the next day with another.
My question is not why did he change, but why did he change so suddenly? Pure speculation here: could his ‘new’ viewpoint be externally driven? Could exogenous factors have contributed to Mr Ritter’s change of heart.
Interesting. I dont think the 40 billion aid package is really a big a deal as it sounds…..some reasoning;
1. Most of this will not end up as actual hardware or ammunition on the front lines
2. Most of this will be siphoned of by various groups and individuals in both the US and Ukraine (and likley global arms manufacturers)….Basically its theft from the US tax payer
3. Where are the resources and industrial capacity going to come from to convert this “wealth” into actual stuff…..
After what Ive seen of Govt spending in my own country of NZ over the last 5years its clear this is just fluff…..I think money is becoming more and more disconnected from the real world – so when a figure of 40 billion is thrown around so casually one really has to wonder what its actual value really is……
ASB military news on telegram posts that USA plans to send a package of anti-ship missiles to Ukraine for use in the Black Sea. Is this true, and if it is, what would the military impact be and would it represent an escalation to be concerned about?
Concerning the impact of the massive aid NATO is providing Ukraine, some russian politicians are also arguing for some escalation of the military operation. My instinct is that the ukranean army os like this huge tree still standing while almost cut, it will collapse any minute now. All the billions will not replace ukranean lives destroyed, neither the shatered ilusion of a big Ukraine.
Excellent reporting as always, re Scott Ritter, you’re right on the money (still like him tho) and I love The Duran. Keep up the good work.
Hi Jacob, can’t enough of you analysis. I saw on the Slava Intel Z telegram page (11:58, GMT +4 DST, 19/05/22) a video of a Russian T-64BV similar to that in the video posted above. It would seem that the RF are using t-64s as well. Is there anything else you can point at to show that the Tank is Ukrainian?
DPR uses captured t-64, not Russia
if they used it they would repaint it, and specifically remove the pixel camo that the Ukrainians use
Hello Jacob. I appreciate all these reports. I know you prefer to deal with facts, but if you can speculate on one, or some, issues of interest I would like to know your opinion. What is next after the Russians secure the Donbas? What about the rest of Ukraine? Do the Russians invite the Zelensky government for new rounds of talks? What if they do not come, or they do not come to reality (meet Russian demands)? Will Putin have to move West and occupy the whole of the country to reach his political objectives? Will Putin finally have to dispose of the Zelensky government?
Any illumination on these questions is appreciated.
Ritter’s point was that allowing the 155mm howitzers to brought to bear on the front changes the calculus. They must be moved by train, and if Russia controls the skies, then this should’ve been preventable, implying a deficiency in command & control. War is messy, and it’s hard to assess from afar. Seems a reasonable observation. How much the howitzers change the calculus is TBD. Cheers.
Howitzers can also be towed or carried by trucks, so they can move into Ukraine just like the small arms: interspersed with civilian traffic, at night time, in separate groups. I can’t see how Russia can realistically control roads hundreds of kilometers to the rear, even if Russia had the same recon & air assets as the US has.
I don’t know what (if I heard it right ) Scott Ritter meant when he seemed to suggest he had received intelligence that US-NATO had devised a new(?) way for getting bigger (?) more appropriate weaponry to frontline…
No one’s going to tell this guy anything, LOL.
You are absolutely right! Many just do not understand the real size of the territory of Ukraine. This is like the state of Texas, or Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri put together. Or Germany and Poland put together. But many military experts in the West, including Scott Ritter, are making another mistake for the obvious reason, but a key, major mistake! Their brains do not work the way Russian military brains work! Another mentality and syntax is not just an empty word. Russians think otherwise: why chase across Ukraine for 100 “bad guys”? We need to get all these “guys” to positions that have already been hit by our artillery and aviation and can’t get back. That is why, when intelligence reported that most of the weapons were brought to the east of Ukraine, the strikes on the railway were not in the east or west, but in the center of Ukraine – so that these weapons (bad guys) remained in the east. So it worked out! )) Watch the videos from social media as these “bad guys” are destroyed. For example, this is – https://youtu.be/tNfLWfnuCoE
Great analysis.
I concur with above comments that question the ultimate end game. Are we in a perpetual cycle of war between Russia / China and the West now? A kind of reverse domino theory that will be played out across European / Asian countries?
Accompanied too by ever increasing authoritarianism and thought manipulation, of which lock downs and plague fears are manifestations as also noted above? Almost an Orwellian “1984” scenario with perpetual conflict between blocs that look increasingly similar to one another internally? A pure power struggle, cloaked with ideology.
It’s too troubling to think about. Definitely time now to have some wine, enjoy the sun and try to forget about it………
Yes, there is evidence of a collapse around the Sieverodonetsk region. The most credible report is that the Russians lost something like 150 men in that river crossing. The Ukrainians losses three times that every day. I am sure they are trying to cross at a different location. The Russians have lots of options. In the Proposna front, they are gaining ground very quickly towards the north in the direction of Siverst. Once the supply is cut off, 40k-80k men will be stranded without food, ammo. They will be pounded day and night. I give them two weeks after the Russians cut off their supply line before the whole front collapses.
Yes, I mixed up the number for the entire Eastern front with that of Sieverodonetsk. The most credible number was 8000-15000 in the Sieverodonetsk region.
Scott Ritter never impressed me with his military commentary’s level because he never give the average listener any deeper view of what the average person can conclude by himself.
For the last three months, he was in full agreement with the Russian’s plans and proceeding s, and suddenly, just recently, he raise the possibility that Russia might not win if “Putin ” doesn’t declare general mobilization with 1 500 000 soldiers thrown in the battle, without any thinking about what are the consequences of this very classical way of the American military planners ( which gave them all the ” victories ” in the middle east and elsewhere!).
My question to him is: why Putin will take his advice when:
1/ the Russian people are living in a very normal and not warlike conditions ?
2/ their economy is stable and the Ruble is getting stronger everyday ?
3/ the relatively small army is doing well, slowly frying the Ukrainian Nazis, immensely increasing their pain before the end, and at the same time, the victory will come eventually with less casualties in personnel, equipments and damage to the economy, furthermore, the can consider this mini war as a long military exercise or wargames, so why the hell drop all those advantages for the proposal of Me. Scott Ritter ?!
4/ why “Putin ” will risk the possibility of major war with the west & NATO by replacing the Special Military Operation with general mobilization and declaration of war ? The Nazis regime is collapsing and degrading by the hours, the Americans and Europeans are suffering from multitude of problems and crises, and the longer time is in favor of Russia, and against it’s adversaries.
Are NATO and West continually upping the ante come hell or highwater?
Was it possibly that he suggested that he had received intelligence about a way that was opened by NATO-US to move materiel to frontline?
you are underestimating the US/NATO and i think its a dangerous mistake to make. their ambitions are to prolong the war and bleed Russia dry. If they get enough heavy weaponry in and up their support they just may be able to achieve this. Even if Russia takes Donbass do you think this will be over? Hell no. They will continue to mount counter offensives from western Ukraine and Poland, resulting in a never ending stalemate. that is not a victory for Russia
The guy in the ball pit and the bunk bed is Canadian Willy.
I did know that. Random netizens generously contributing to our collective knowledge on their own time and dime are quite thorough. These noble lovers of “fact checking” sometimes forget to use VPN and get caught editing English language Wikipedia pages with State Department IP addresses. It’s funny how all Uncle Sam’s public enemies are sexual perverts and all kinds of moral degenerates. Don’t forget that Assange raped some women in Sweden. I personally wouldn’t care less if it turns out Scott Ritter eats human flesh. I’m one of those people who are happy to rewatch The Piano and The Usual Suspects at every given opportunity. Because how the hell are private lives related to professional work? You don’t have to like the guy or respect his analysis but #MeToo is below the belt.
Ritter’s “exposure” with an underage girl online reminds me of the old Seinfeld episode when George Costanza decides to hook up with the cleaning lady in his office one night and his boss confronts him the next day. George responds..something like..”me doing it with the cleaning lady…was that a bad thing?”
In reality, he exposed himself to a grown guy. Asking people to sell you drugs on the street and arresting them is one thing. Catfishing people into sending you nude pics is something different. Why is that even treated as real when on the internet, nobody knows you’re a dog? It doesn’t matter what people say online. You can’t really know who is on the other end unless they show their face on camera and open a passport in front of you. How can anyone even know he’s really into teenage girls? 85% of people sex chatting guys online as “teenage girls” are other guys and everybody knows this. Maybe that’s his thing. Hoping he’s exposing himself to a bearded guy.
There is no evidence that Assange raped any women in Sweden. My understanding is that the Swedish government, at the behest of the USA, filed charges on behalf of two women who engaged in casual sex with Assange, as the start of a plan to transfer him to US custody. That was only the start of a campaign to smear Assange, which went on to claim bad body odor, wiping feces on the walls of the embassy, etc. Sad to say, the campaign has been very successful and there are few voices from the journalist community speaking out in support of him and decrying the outrageous extradition proceedings and deplorable holding conditions in Belmarsh.
Julian Assange DID NOT rape women in Sweden. Those women actually retracted “rape” and admitted to consensual sex. The only “crime” Assange committed was to release the “Collateral Damage” video that Chelsea Manning obviously provided. Julian Assange had to be STOPPED regardless and has now languished in a British maximum security prison for years because he “jumped bail” ….. WAKE UP and stop repeating MSM lies and propaganda to support your argument
Yes. But I think she was arguing through sarcasm.
Yes …. my bad! Afraid I get so riled up over Julian Assange (a fellow Australian) that I jump in boots and all 🙄
Love it just brilliant 👏
I understand what Scott Ritter concerned about and it does have merit. Russia does need to step up its game. I don’t think Russia plans to take whole Ukraine, I think they take Kharkov, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaparodje, Nikalaev and Odessa. Rest they might just demilitarizatarize and denazify.
I listen to Scott Ritter advice, but wouldn’t have my kids next to him. Lol
I’ll continue to listen to Scott Ritter, together with other voices I already follow (including this blog, Duran, Martyanov, etc.). That’s because what I look for is not an unanimous crystal ball prediction but a range of views and opinions that are based on reasonable rationale. Not only because is it difficult to predict the future, but also because even the most reasonable person can make mistakes.
I also have tremendous admiration and a sense of gratitude for Ritter’s career (or his courage to throw it away on moral grounds). I am not sure how many of us would pass that test.
As for his personal flaw (I hope and assume that it lies in the past), I am willing to have compassion, without condoning the behavior. We are all humans and none of us is perfect.
What I would like to add to Ritter’s views is that I do not consider them to be proven wrong or utterly illogical. Also, what he is doing is pointing out some concerns that might materialize (as well as some steps he considers worth taking). Not only is there anything wrong about it. In fact, if based on articulated rationale, such opinions help us all review our (and others’) contrary opinions. Let none of us assume that we already know everything worth knowing …
Note that Alexander Mercuris while not agreeing with Ritter does consider similar complications with NATO not impossible.
In regards to Ritter and his knack for erratic military assessments and conclusions, it is plain to see that he does not hold firm on any clear and consistent strategic overview of the Ukraine conflict or the larger struggle between the West and Russia. Though I don’t yet see the West putting together a coherent and effective force any time soon, I do see potential complications for the Russian advance and those complications could become true challenges for Russia to deal with over time. If one looks on the Ukraine map and territory Russia has taken, a long line of advance from east to west towards Odessa produces a natural line of vulnerability to attack. Such a long linear line of advance and control of the Black Sea coastal areas produces a natural exposure to assault from what is left of Ukraine territory to the north. As this advance continues, the line of logistics and supply becomes stretched and potentially vulnerable, even with supply from Crimea in force there remains this potential vulnerability.
In other words, the Russian advance has produced a clear salient all along their advance and the only way to overcome that salient is for the Russians to take and hold most of the remaining territory of the Ukraine. Otherwise, it will be exposed to constant attack and threat of any part of their new territory being cut to pieces. Simply to defend such a long line of southern advance along the Black Sea produces vulnerabilities that would entice attack from the West. Even long range artillery and missile attack from the West may create major headaches for the Russians once they fully secure this newly held territory.
I think the Russians have to take everything east of the Dnieper to from a secure border. If they go further I think they fall into the trap of becoming occupiers….and face a never ending insurgency….Perhaps becasue of the vulnerable salient being formed in the South they will not try and push onto Odessa and Mykolaiv…..in military terms anyway…..
From a basic Energy / Commodities point of view, so long as Russia can remain economically viable I cant see how the Europeans are anything but screwed…..To me that’s the harder point to properly understand especially when you live in a country submerged in western media mainstream BS…..which bears little resemblance to actual reality….
I think they should take Kharkov, Dnipropetrovsk, Nikalaev, Odessa, they already have kherson
Those are perceptive and effective points you make. Every inch past the Dneiper and the anti Russian resistance grows to potentially hard to extinguish insurgencies. But, from whatever north/south new demarcation line between the West controlled Ukraine and the new Russian territory, there will remain a constant threat of escalating provocation from the West.
The other major point you made I am in full agreement.
Putin has accurately sized up the West with its limited strengths and unlimited weaknesses, especially their bizarre lack of rational leadership across the entire West, especially from the U.S. Europe, led by a nonsensical cabal of globalist puppets could not figure their way out of a paper bag let alone a real war. Their entire economy stands shakily on a knife’s edge of enormous destruction and ruin.
Putin and his people have put together an incredibly well thought out strategically prepared plan for this “special military operation” well in advance of the actual onslaught. He has thoroughly mapped out not only the military preparedness details but the national and international economic and monetary necessities as well. I have not seen any political “leader” in the West with such an outstanding ability to think many steps ahead of his opponent. He has prepared for just about every realistic contingency- right down to each possible countermove to the West’s anticipated actions and reactions.
Putin controls the initiative. He who controls the initiative controls the outcome.
He’s not a clown like the competition, but he’s not a god. Russia’s govt was very much in shock after Europe froze their reserves, about 6 days into the war. Russia only started to hit back with “gas for rubles” in the second half of April. Clearly, they had not thought out everything in advance.
Hello Jacob. I do appreciate your work as i appreciate Scott Ritters’s one. ** Please don’t go to his personnal life and what happened to him, i supposed it was also a trap and unfortunately, because of your honest comments on this conflict, the “intelligence” will pêrhaps try to do the same to you. ** Everybody can make a mistake, I suggest you Mr Xavier Moreau ( a french former military living in Moscow since 2001) , he also “comments” the geopolitics, he did some shows also on RT with Alexander Mercouris. I listened a private conference with him this week and he thinks it was mainly Ukrainian material on the severo donetsk river. I can provide you a link but it is in french. I Listen to you, Scott Ritter, the Duran, Stratpol ( Xavier Moreau), SmoothieX12, Gonzalo Lira and 3 others french speakers. Most of you have mainly the same analysis, prospects are differents.** https://t.me/stratpol/256 interview with english subtitles .
Agree. It’s widely known that the FBI is notorious for entrapping targets they want to compromise for one reason or another. One should not forget the notorious FBI program, COINTELPRO, designed to go after the Black Panthers and leftists in general. A form of it still exists today! Further, the sexual proclivities of an individual do not necessarily correlate with their credibility on other matters.
give me a break.
Scott Ritter has a lot of experience and knowledge.
and so do you…
please don’t try to compete on who is the Superior Expert… slamming him for something completely unrelated to knowledge and opinion about War and military Tactics is “unprofessional” and diminishes You credibility.
He said the USA would use nukes in Iraq, I was there when he said it. And, he went to jail for a pedo offense. He has poor judgement. Period. Tired of hearing about this pedo in my comments section. Thanks for commenting.
no problem. I appreciate your perspective.
I hope you never “miss-state” something…someone will haunt you forever
Scott is an impulsive thinker. They are inclined to grasp the big picture before others do, but are also inclined to overshoot in their assessments and predictions. Given the incendiary baggage he carries, Scott has shown incredible bravery in stepping forward to speak the truth as he sees it. Let’s not eat our own.
Yes – Scott Ritter has made mistakes. I did a deep dive.
But he has also taken some principled stands at great personal risk and paid dearly for it.
I don’t take everything he says as gospel, and he is pretty clear about his biases and blind spots.
I find his candor and the context and the spirit he brings to the conversation extremely helpful myself.
I love what you are doing here.
You don’t need to take cheap shots at decent but flawed fellow warriors to make your points.
Please keep it coming!
I didn’t take this information, neither his view of the Iraq war nor his brush with the law, in the vein of cheap shots, but rather as a factor one needs to take into account when weighing what Scott says. It’s hardly a minor slip when a man his age decides to do something serious that should embarrass even an adolescent. That doesn’t mean his assessment of a situation can’t be right but it does mean those listening to him have to understand that Scott can be given at times to very rash judgment.
I read about Scott’s personal life experiences/ escapades and I thought they were bullshit, however found out from other sources kinda doing my own research it is what it is. Don’t want to run him down but it’s pretty hard to rehabilitate your self in the public opinion realm God Bless him however, I’ll take him with a grain of salt but I’ll move on to seek out others with better integrity, my 2 cents
What do you think is the end game for Russia? That they’ll win in Donbass seems almost a certainty at this stage, but what next? They ultimately need a political settlement to finish the war. Even if they steamroll the entire country it’s likely NATO (in reality the US) will use the “liberation” of Ukraine as an excuse to continue fighting from the next border countries – Poland, Romania, possibly Finland and the Baltic states etc in order to achieve their real (and clearly stated) objective of undermining Russia. Does Russia keep going? That is probably unsustainable. I just think neither side will want to blink, leading to real catastrophe. I hope you can see a different potential end game. (I know this is all pure speculation and conjecture at this relatively early stage).
Excellent comment. The end game IMHO is winter 2022-2023, and Europe needs gas. Also I am expecting another plague, but that’s just me.
They’ll need the lockdowns, come autumn.
The only way to control the inevitable mob (see Sri Lanka for a preview). And they’ve had a dry run already…
I would agree also that end game is end of the year. Hunger and freezing are good motivators to be able to agree on some things even with your perceived enemy. Do you have any ideas how all of this will affect political field in europe ? It is early to think that but as it is clear that without clear nato intervention ukraine loses and europe likely loses in the economic/energy war, will europeans demand drastic change of politicians and policies finally ? And if so, who and what.
Another plague…..hmmm, yes, we are hearing the rumblings of renewed interest in the coof (or potential of its successor) that are slowly beginning to infiltrate back into MSM. An interesting thought, that this will be used to divert and potentially end western interest in Ukraine. A good excuse to override their failure there. Look here!! Don’t look there. Again.
According to this old crone, I think you said it all in a nutshell.
…hmmm maybe something like the monkeypox virus? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/19/monkeypox-virus-case-confirmed-in-massachusetts.html
In addition to other costs, I think Zelensky etc have to pay about $10 billion a month for government and military salaries and pensions. There must be a political time limit on when the US and EU can no longer justify continuing to fund Zelensky with such large sums in such a public and transparent manner.
Maybe another $100 billion and that’s it? Maybe another factor in winter 2022/23 seeing the end of US/EU stupidity in continuing with this particular proxy war.
To some extent, why should Russia be in a hurry when inflation increasingly affects the US/EU populations and eventually politics will force the US/EU governments to substantially reduce funding the Ukraine.
It’s much closer to $1 billion than $10 billion/month.
Sorry, muddled thinking and too quick to type it out.
Start again. Due to reduced income, increased military expenditure, salaries, etc the Ukraine govt spending has monthly deficit of $5b to $7b (which I mistakenly rounded off to $10b).
Assume current US/EU funding runs out in August.
Then at least another $30b to $40b will be required just to fund Ukraine’s general expenditure until March 2023.
Plus $??b for more military hardware from August to March. The total general expenditure and hardware may approach $100b..
I know it’s just playing with figures but there must be a point at which the US/EU has to stop approving another $10b, $20b, $40b, etc because of an adverse political climate in their countries. Maybe that’s winter 2022/23.
The more I follow this SMO, the more it seems that this is a game of chess, or is it poker being played here by Putin vis-a-vis NATO. Everybody knows who the Grand Master is in this game.
A far as Scott R is concerned, it seems that he wants fast action which is is not conducive when you are playing chess without a timer. As Napolean has famously been quoted to have said “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”.
One side is playing chess, and the other “Pin the Tail on the Putin Donkey”.
In the case of the latter it is getting both embarrassing, and downright dangerous. They are behaving like a puce-red 3-year old “negotiating” for sweets (candy) in the supermarket aisle. A 3-year old with nukes…
Pin the tail on the Putin!! Brilliant! And Scott does display impulsiveness and bad judgement as a result. I still respect his knowledgeability in his areas of expertise. The first time I heard of Scott was an article he wrote for RT, can’t recall how many years ago. I believe he said that the US might use tac nukes on Iran because the US can’t win conventionally. I recall replying “Scott Ritter are you nuts!? The first time anybody uses a tac nuke anywhere the entire nuke armed world will go on hair trigger alert right now, “Do we launch? Do we launch?” ”
Now he said, in a voice of actual panic, that if Finland joins NATO Russia will destroy Finland, “YOU Are all going to DIE!”, he literally shouted. Alexander Mercouris was calm and mature. So yes. Bad judgement that needs to be taken with skepticism every time. The other stuff? Not relevant except that it shows bad judgement. Bodbody’s nerfect
The surrender of Azov has forced Zelensky to launch “Phase 2” of Ukraine’s own “Special Media Operation” – called “Narrative Resuscitation”. Reports say Zelensky is also considering organizing a Ukr. women’s home guard called NLM – “Nazi Lives Matter” and a more militant wing – “ANTIPUTI”.
Hah, good one.
There has been much critisism from the beginning that the Russians have been using 2nd rate equipment thus far, and holding the good stuff in reserve. They are now starting to deploy T-90s (with the Armata canon upgrade) and those Terminator 2’s – next level gear (especially electronically). Does this step up in ordnance indicate perhaps that the Donbass “Maginot Line” collapse is imminent, and the next phase is around the corner? Being as there is a lot of open countryside about to be opened up when this event happens?
Ritter’s had a few serious brainfarts recently. He quotes the $40-$50b as a gamechanger, then acknowledges 90% of it will be laundered straight back to the DC/London/Brussels/MIC gravytrain (the other 10% going to Zelly and the oligarchs?). He goes on about the training camps in Poland churning out new “soldiers”, when the cream are being annihililated by artillery in the east, at between 500 to 1000 a day. You cannot replace hardened experienced troops with raw ones. Well, you can, but…
Those 777 howis he bangs on about? Probably your department, Jacob, but possibly only a leading edge “gamechanger” in today’s warfare when their electronic sighting modules are fitted, and allegedly those supplied by the US are without this key component (God knows how much training time required to operate them, which might explain why they where left off). And without air cover? The less said about the M113 coffins (Ukies are scared to get in them), and nearing 20 year use-by-date ATMs supplied in their thousands by the Brits. In fact, the list of out-dated tat shipped east by Nato is almost laughable. And there in lies the rub:
Scott is making his assessments based on the quantity, rather than the quality, of both troops and weapons in reserve. I the way he talks get the impression he’s getting bored and just wants the Russians to mass mobilize and steamroller their way to Lvov (which is likely not even on Putin’s radar).
Does make one wonder if his past is being used by others’ to “influence” his present “official opinions.” AKA The Epstein Behavioral Control method.
In truth, if I understood him well he’s still sure Russia is going to achieve two of their three objectives, and have a more difficult one of the political one than if the US didn’t approve the latest aid package.
More than bored, it seems to me as if he’s pissed off both with the US political class and the Russians for not being more decisive.
I agree with you re. what Scott Ritter said to Garland Nixon re., considering the 50% of 60 bil. a game changer. It seems wise to me not to assume Russia’s win in Donbass is necessarily a slam dunk or rather the end of water against NATO-US aggression against Russia. I don’t see the need for a character smear against Ritter (maybe CIA old misinformation). Did those who got their hackles up listen closely to what he told Nixon? Or maybe Nixon is a persona non grata? Hard for me to know who may fall under the chopping block here… (and I think the truth is on Russia’s side against NATO should anyone be inclined to ask).
Yes, Ritter’s stress over the M777 is weird. The M777’s genius is that it is very light, and ideal for sir mobile operations. The equivalent 152 mm guns already in Ukrainian service have very similar range and terminal effects, but are twice the weight. As air mobile ops are not a big thing in this war, I can’t see the special importance of the M777.
In fact, the special materials and engineering that enable the light weight mean that the M777 wears more quickly and requires more repair than more conventional 15x mm guns. Not to mention that there is scatterable munitions available in 152 mm, which are largely absent in 155 mm.
The funny thing is Ritter has said all of this on his Telegram channel yet now it is a game-changer all of a sudden. Gonzalo Lira took a huge dump on him today for this flip-flopping.
To be fair i think the main concern was the amount of heavy equipment the Russians were either allowing to get to the frontlines or unable to stop, which would help to prolong the war and make the odds of a stalemate more possible. Also whats next after Donbass? if you leave the west of Ukraine free for them to rebuild their armies this war will keep dragging on for years funded by the west.
Hello Jackob,
thank you for your reply about the Scott Ritter question I asked lately.
I knew allredy about SR troubles with law, but I am not much interested in his personal life.
I find some of the things he says interesting, I find his views similar to yours in most of cases.
Everyone can make mistakes, also other commentators that I personally follow with interest have had legal issues.
This doesn’t mean their opinions can’t be interesting/true or are genuine.
My question now, don’t you think Ukraine is training troops in Poland…?
If so, could this make any diffeence?
Is it possible to quickly train civilians/volunteers to become a valuabe soldier/units capable of using complicated new equipment? I think not. What is your opinion?
Thank you very much for your great work.
Cheers from Italy.
One should not throw mud on another! If you criticise Scott Ritter, please do with his analysis only! You are teaching us for critical thinking!
Scott Ritter is impulsive and has a track record of very poor judgement. Sure, follow him all you want.
Leaving SR topic which is not that interesting and seems to capture too much attention.
About the training, reinforcements part?
Is there something going on in eastern europe?
If you don’t have all the facts, how can you think critically? Shocking as Jacob’s revelations about Scott Ritter are, I would much rather have all the facts, not just the sanitised ones. Scott Ritter has put himself out there as a public military analyst, just as Jacob has so we are entitled to know if he or anyone else for that matter is compromised or lacking in integrity. I was even more shocked and confused about Scott Ritter’s change in analysis, which just didn’t make sense ….. and now it does.
Agree. Enjoy SR and the Dreizin Report both. I wouldn’t hold someone’s past transgressions for which their debt to society has been paid as a means to discredit their opinion.
I do agree that SR has bad judgement though and have considered that myself when listening to him. Bad judgement on his on line activities 10 or whatever years ago that was.
You can train up a basic soldier who may have some value in basic defense in a light infantry role in say 3 months….
But you then need likely at least another 3 months to train them in the basics of say specialized heavy weaponry – ie Artillery, Tanks, Air Defence etc….and 3 months is likely not going to get you much of that….
Even the above does not include the time to train them to work in combined arms formations – which usually takes a few years of training in western armys and you will likely also be lacking the NCO layer to bring this all together….
Its likely that Ukraine already tapped the best resources available in terms of manpower….they will soon be getting to lower quality material (less fit, older, lower IQ etc…)….add to that the effects of bad news in terms of the war effort on morale and willingness to fight…..
You really need at least 2 years to train a good competent soldier in my view and that includes exposure to multiple large training exercises in that time frame. Then add another 2-4yrs to get a competent low ranking NCO….
I think they can train up basic cannon fodder in say 3-6months but that’s about it…..Think WW1 with a bit of WW2 1945 German Volkstrum thrown in….Europe and the US seem to be ok with this though, its more a case when the average Ukrainian says no thanks….which I guess the highly propagandized diet they are feed will delay this for god only knows how much longer….
Ive also heard the Russians have started targeting the reserves that are in training – so they are getting blooded before they even get to the front by stand off weapons – that’s got to be fairly demoralizing in itself…..
Be interesting to know the demographics but I suspect its pretty bad – also bear in mind they can probably only call on manpower west of the Dneiper Im guessing- so that may reduce their available manpower by 50% already…..
I have a nasty suspicion the west is in a race…a race on one side where thy try to prolong the war as long as possible by motivating and burning thru Ukrainians in one lane vs the robustness of the Russian Economy on the other….its pretty sick…..
Brilliant. Thank you.
Thanks, very helpful. I’m also curious about the overall population demographics that are needed to support either a regular trained army as you’ve described or the Ukrainian insurgency that some US talking heads claim is coming.
I understand that Ukraine has one of the lowest birth rates in Europe (which has a low baseline to begin with). Russia isn’t much better but since they have overall numerical superiority, they’re likely in a better position long term.
Aside from the fact that a large number of Ukrainian men were already in the West pre Feb 2002 (and many that could still follow post Feb 2022 did so), when we’re talking about families with, at best, only one son, how much human inventory is there really to support the war effort? Ukraine isn’t akin to Afghanistan or sub Saharan Africa with a culture of large families and many children
Did not know about Scott sexual incident. Sad. I like to hear different perspectives. Your input is always great. I also read Moon of Alabama in addition to yours, listening to the Duran. I just cannot listen to lying cable media, maybe Tucker Carlson. Why does it take so long to take over Donbass? With $40 b to Ukraine, some going to pay soldiers, do you think it will lead to new draftees?
I also follow Larry Johnson in addition to those you cite, and the very good Asia Defence Politics, who is some guy in Singapore who researches his stuff well without bias and produces the best daily reports. Only a fraction of the 40billion$ will ever materialise as weapons and by the time they arrive in The Ukraine it will be too late. I do not believe Russia will take more of The Ukraine than the lands transferred by the communists in 1922-23 – that is to say they will advance to the old Imperial borders of The Ukraine and stop there.
You have his links of larry Johnson?
How will Russia de-nazify Ukraine if they stop at the Russian Imperial borders? They must at least temporarily occupy the whole country, purge the nazis, and install new leadership who will move Ukraine in a different direction. No doubt they will have to stick around and rebuild quite a bit of western Ukraine, too, not just the east and south.
Regarding Ritter’s conviction coming from the actions of a ‘bored Pennsylvania cop’ and not the CIA- that’s quite a naive position. My mother was hounded by the FBI during the McCarthy years, but the grunt work was done by LAPD. In the end, though, it doesn’t matter whether Ritter stepped over the line or was entrapped/framed. What matters is that he was convicted and knows the same can happen again. In that sense, he’s compromised, and can’t be considered reliable. But then, who can be? It’s a good idea to regard all sources with skepticism and try to evaluate their facts and reasoning, regardless of personalities and personal histories.
Ritter was literally nobody when he was arrested the second time. He was washed up, and still is. It’s like saying Al Gore was set up when he was accused of assault by an Oregon masseuse in 2006. Was that the Bush administration? They had better things to do. Get a grip. Ritter’s only defense was that he thought the cop was only pretending to be a teen girl. He’s an impulsive creep, just trying to stay relevant now.
@tenthcirclesite
They won’t. Western Ukraine will be Poland’s problem.
https://sonar21.com/about-larry/
The link for Larry C Johnson
Ritter was arrested for exposing himself on camera to a police officer posing as a 15 year old on an internet sex site. The officer probably looked over 25 and he believed it was a woman fantasizing that she was a teenager. He refused a plea deal, went to trial and found guilty. He served 2 years in jail. This incident has all the earmarks of sex addiction which is a common addiction in America. He went through programs while in jail and was released early.
My understanding was that the cop was just communicating over the keyboard, not on camera. Is this incorrect?
Agree with the above
Interesting your assessment of ScR! I like to think that the Russian leadership is acting responsibly and quite likely well attuned to the realities on the ground. I appreciate your commitment and the excellent work you do. There was an eye opener which gave me insights into the Nazi war criminals that run the show in Kiew. The clip can be played in a large variety of language. I felt it was very well done! https://www.kla.tv/22511
Mihalkov’s show has been vey educational for me since the conflict bagan. They started translating it in many languages for a wider audience. It’s nice to see that you came across it. Would be interesting to hear Mr Dreizins opinion, if the events presented in the show are accurate and in context, and if there is any show business spin in there.
Each time I switch to English, the video is replaced by another episode and the original disappears totally.
On YouTube, you should be able to download the transcript in e.g. Ukrainian, save it as text, and convert it to English at a translation site. I don’t properly recall the exact details but I’ve done it more than once.
After an hour of searching, found the video on YT with text translation provided.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mm6p-NQKDlQ
I watch as many videos as possible that chronicle what is afoot in Mariupol and Donbass. While I’m no expert in military matters, it seems to me that the soldiers on camera are mostly from the LPR and DPR, not Russian troopers per se. Are Russian authorities prohibiting the recording of their first line soldiers for some military reason or is it that most of the fighting is in the hands of its allies?
The Russian army is more “professional” and thus, more likely to adhere to wartime self-censorship requirements.
Russian soldiers aren’t allowed to bring/use phones on the front lines.
Most of the heavy-lifting is actually done by the East Ukrainian Donbass militia, not the Russians. What you’re seeing are Donbass militia.
I don’t think the English language format exists for this particular video, which is a pity
Holy shit RE Scott Ritter!!
That aside, it’s clear that whatever resistance is still being put up by the Ukraine, while brave, is only delaying the inevitable (if delaying it at all at this stage, mind you).
If comms are as shyte as seems to be the case in the remnants of the Ukrainian fighting force, holding out is pretty pointless. Of course, comms could be intentionally shyte to try and delay/reduce AWOL cases as much as possible, but maybe I’m dreaming.
Thanks for your dedicated and hard work Mr Dreizin.
About Scott Ritter, a thought provoking analysis of his “changeroo” is here: https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/scott-ritters-switcheroo-why-i-radically-changed-my-overall-assessment/. Scott is really advocating that Russia go “full western”, ignoring that Ukraine is a country larger than France. It could be that Russia is going slow deliberately. They clearly have “escalation dominance” so maybe they are telling Ukraine to think more about what they are getting into. Who knows? From experience what is enraging the collective west most is how hard it is to counter Putin’s moves. Amazing to watch the utterly ridiculous over-reactions and the consequences. It seems some NATO members (France Germany and Italy) are starting to see where this is leading and they do not like what they see. Even Finland is now saying no NATO bases in Finland, even if they join. The Finnish President’s interview on CNN was quite interesting in that he clearly said he was not concerned about a Russian attack but only by the fact that he did not want to be seen as capitulating to Putin on joining NATO. It’s an ego thing: “see, Vlad, I can join NATO if I want”. But Putin’s point is that this puts Russia in an insecure position and therefore violates the principle of indivisible security, which it does. How else can Russia interpret Finland joining NATO other than joining a hostile military alliance against Russia? Now the Finnish President is sending more conciliatory messages to Putin. We are still Friends, Vlad. Meanwhile in east Ukraine, Putin cannot abide the reality that western Ukraine is force-feeding Russia hatred on the population. If you do not hate Russia you are a traitor. The hatred of western Ukraine for the east has a lot to do with the fact that virtually all the oligarchs are from the east and they are seen as the cause of the corruption. There may in fact be some truth to this. What is most urgently required is reconciliation within Ukraine and the expulsion of all foreign influences, be it rearmament or soldiers. How long will it take? We shall see.
““see, Vlad, I can join NATO if I want”. But Putin’s point is that this puts Russia in an insecure position and therefore violates the principle of indivisible security, which it does. ”
It also violates the 1992 agreement between Finland and Russia.
In it Finland agrees to neutrality IN PERPETUITY. End of story. Finland is not free to join NATO.
Any westerners whispering that in Finland’s ear—You are free to choose— are bad angels standing on Finland’s shoulder.
So far the comments thing doesn’t seem to be working for me, but here’s another try.
Re Ritter, “In that sense, he’s compromised, and can’t be considered reliable. ”
I don’t follow this logic. It seems to me that someone who has been openly compromised is maybe more reliable than someone who is secretly blakcmailed. As long as Ritter keeps his nose clean, I don’t see a problem with him on this score. He has paid his debt to society.
Dreizin is right that Ritter showed bad judgment in the matter under discussion, but IMO it is not logical to say that this means he is a lousy military analyst. That decision should be confined to military, not sexual, matters.
You know, Vlad is a short form of different name-Vladislav)) Even if it seems weird, but short form for Vladimir will be Vova😄
” If “even” the Dreizin Report can be wrong on this count, what can you expect of CNN? ”
Being right or wrong is not an issue in my opinion. Everybody is wrong once in a while. And when it comes to a situation that entails such a fog of war, being wrong or not entirely right is to be expected in my opinion. It’s very hard to assess a situation when informations are so sparse and hard to make senso of.
What makes your blog so precious in my opinion is that you are honest and sincere: you can contemplate the idea of having being wrong and if you believe you are you will just say so and reassess your conclusions based on new informations. Which is everything one can expect from a rational and honest person.
So, thank you for your work. It’s invaluable.