You can learn a lot from one short video.
The below video shows what I assume to be two Russian Su-25 “Grach” ground attack jets flying very low over southeastern or southern Ukraine, soon to be part of the Russian Federation.
The video has been “enriched” with a soundtrack, namely the iconic song Prekrasnoe Dalyoko (which I veeeeeery roughly translate as “Splendid Someday“) from the 1980s hit TV miniseries Gostia iz Budush’evo (“Guest from the Future.“)
The last few seconds of the video, show a blank screen with the Russian words for, “Today, what have I done for tomorrow?“, a key phrase in the song’s lyrics. The relevance is obvious.
These pilots are part of a war effort to guarantee Russia’s physical-political and economic (e.g. control over Black Sea oil and grain export routes as well as oil and gas resources) security for the coming decades. Moreover, using this beautiful song—with its searing lyrics—in the given context, is intended to evoke feelings of mission and participation in a Russian audience.
“Today, what have I done for tomorrow?”
First, some musings on working for tomorrow, then later we’ll analyze the video and Russia’s air war more broadly, both of these from a technical, tactical, and strategic perspective.
The U.S. Government agency where I work my dayjob—and which I don’t represent or speak for in any capacity whatsoever on this blog—sent out an email a few days ago, praising the more than 20,000 (out of 400,000-plus) employees who chose to include their “pro-noun” preferences in their email profiles, in line with management’s encouragement. (So far, I’ve not seen any gender-flipping—if anything, I’m guessing it’s an act of protest or ridicule in most cases.)
“Today, what have I done for tomorrow?” For America’s tomorrow, the Brandon fre@kshow hasn’t done squat. My God, what a bunch of Limp D*ck Losers. Their rule started with a military occupation of the nation’s capital, to keep any residual protestors from heckling within two miles of their inauguration, and it’s all been downhill from there.
Now, they intend to withhold school lunch funding from states that won’t let boys use the girls’ bathroom. What a G@WD D@MN CIRCUS. They are daring the Universe to DESTROY them. I’m convinced the korona is coming back soon, and it will bury them and their pro-nouns under millions of vakk-syn-ay-ted corpses. But, посмотрим, as they say in Russian—we’ll see what happens.
What does this video tell us?
As you can see, the craft taking up most of the video, is flying in a pair (at least.) It is flying EXTREMELY low. Between it and its partner, they deploy decoy flares two or three times in the span of less than one minute of footage (the third time might be a repeat—please leave a comment if you’re sure one way or the other—and quite a bit of “downtime” may have been edited out.) Most likely, they both deploy flares simultaneously, but the visible focus is on one at a time.
The flares are intended to confuse the infrared homing on Uncle Sam’s Stinger missiles, which have been “donated” (with a time-delay) to ISIS or other as-yet-unknown international terrorists, using the Ukraine as middle-man. Of course, the middle-man will cook most of them off himself, but you may wish to think twice about flying anything but El Al and Arkia from now on. (Israel’s main airlines are believed to load “countermeasures” on their planes.)
This may have been a “trailblazer” flight, to draw Stinger fire so as to clear the way for another flight, perhaps a bombing run by more Su-25’s, or a strafing run by attack helicopters.
Many readers have asked, where is the Russian air force, why don’t we see them? It’s a valid question, but an odd one. There are many videos of Russian aircraft flying by. I think what the questioners really mean is, why don’t we see the sort of “target destroyed from 20,000 feet” videos that Americans got used to, starting with the 1991 war against Iraq?
FIRST, either Russia doesn’t have the sort of video recording capabilities that CNN viewers have come to expect, or if it does, it’s not releasing the video, as such might be used by U.S. planners to understand Russian techniques and to defend/mask ground targets or even help bring down Russian aircraft.
SECOND, most Russian manned aircraft activity consists of tactical bombing and strafing runs. There is extensive footage of Russian attack helicopters shooting at ground targets, often with success. As for the fixed-wing aircraft (planes), they typically drop “dumb” (unguided) bombs onto targets from a height of as little as 40 meters (to avoid being seen at a distance by Stinger operators), and there’s simply nothing that can be recorded under those circumstances.
Of course, these bombing runs are not particularly accurate with respect to limited, perhaps unseen targets such as, for example, a platoon-sized strongpoint in a forest. These aircraft would be more useful against columns on a road, but the Ukrainians mostly hide and play static defense.
THIRD, “no one” expected this, but it turns out Russia had (perhaps still has) so many cruise missiles—with explosive payloads of up to 500 kilograms—that it hardly needs to use its heavy bombers. After all, the Ukraine still has some limited, high-altitude air defenses (now less than 10 percent of what it started the war with, but air defense is air defense), so why take the risk?
Strategic bombers have indeed been used to drop blockbusters on the Azovstal complex in Mariupol, and to launch cruise missiles against targets in Kiev and elsewhere, but these flights have not been “well advertised”, with not even so much as video of the planes taking off or landing. It’s clear that Russian military censorship and discretion is at work here. No doubt, Uncle Sam is salivating to learn which types of aircraft, where are they based, etc. But, why give anything away for free? Let the U.S. work for it.
Russia’s cruise missiles have been such a blast, they are taboo in the MSM
Cruise missiles have been THE greatest Russian success story of this war, which is probably why they have gone almost unmentioned in the U.S. and UK press.
First, “no one” expected Russia to have so many. As of now, somewhere north of 1500 of various types (mostly the Kalibr but also the Oniks, Kh-22, Kinzhal, etc.) have been launched against targets in the Ukraine, which is ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS AS MANY CRUISE MISSILES AS THE UNITED STATED HAS LAUNCHED IN **ALL** ITS WARS AND OPERATIONS SINCE 1991.
Second, these things have proven to be amazingly accurate, usually to within just a few meters. In over 100 days of war, with over 1500 launches, excluding the 10 percent or so that have been shot down, the number of Russian cruise missiles that have fallen so short of their targets as to kill civilians or damage civilian homes (without damaging their intended targets at all) can probably be counted on two hands.
Third, Russian cruise missiles have destroyed likely hundreds of tons and hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars of NATO country hardware and munitions being moved inside, or stored in, the Ukraine, before it even reached the “front lines.”
Much of this stuff was supposed to be “hidden”, but was discovered by Russian intelligence using satellite imagery or in many cases, informers on the ground. This is an embarrassment, and not something Uncle Sam wants to advertise.
Of course, in war there are losses, but as it’s not supposed to be “their” war, it’s not something “they” want to highlight to their taxpaying publics. As far as the party line goes, all the “donations” are reaching Ukrainian forces in the field.
Is it any wonder that this success story has been fully ignored by the “Russia is losing” crowd?
Thanks for commenting! Comments and any associated weblinks or other references must be directly relevant and tangential to my published material (not just to other comments.) THIS IS NOT A DEBATE PLATFORM TO DISCUSS HISTORICAL QUESTIONS. Please, no unrelated musings (e.g., about Putin’s family values, how Hitler could have won at Dunkirk or Normandy, rapes committed in Berlin in 1945, etc.), no trolling/baiting, no calling for the destruction or dissolution of the USA or its government, no calling for violence against U.S. Government officials, no ranting about Jews (or Joos, Jooz, Jooze, Juice, Juize, Jewz, Jewze, J-Dogs, J-Dogz, J-Dawgz, J’s, Chews, Choos, Chooz, Chooze, Zionists, Anglo-American Zionists, Zionist Occupation Government, ZOG, IsraHell, Bibi SatanYahoo, “those of whom we cannot speak”, “your friends whom we can’t talk about”, “a certain small ethnic group”, the chosen, the tribe, the chosen tribe, the thirteenth tribe, the Khazarians, Khazarian mafia, Rothschilds, etc., etc.), and no arguing with other commenters. Please share your ***CONCISE*** (2 smartphone screens of text is not concise), relevant, coherent, organized thoughts, and come back for my next post. Thanks again!
This video with Su – 34 is cool too
Thoroughly enjoy your posts Jacob. I found the video and the music of this one mesmerising, so much so that I was playing it over many times. I am amazed at how low these planes fly and the skills of the pilots. I guess I don’t often see this kind of stuff. Thanks for the information provided explaining what they actually do on these missions. If you have any more similar videos my friends and family would greatly appreciate seeing them. The Russians are super impressive. Your commentaries and analysis also!
Enjoy it before this YouTube channel is completely blocked.
There is great Russian videoclip about the Russian air-force and their part in liberating Syria from Obama’s jihadists, put to the AlisA hit “Небо Славян” (Sky of the Slavs) performed by the all female group, Федорино Горе (Fedorino Gore).
А Вы романтик, Jacob )) Это видео точно передает щемящее чувство, которое русские испытывают от этой войны. Это больно, но необходимо. Без этого нет будущего.
English translation of the song (urvanov)
I hear voice from distant future very often,
Morning voice in drops of silver early dew.
I hear voice and see alluring silent road
Morning voice is calling now me and you.
My fine and distant future, please don’t be so cruel,
Please don’t be so cruel, I beg you, I say.
I please for that, my future, my fine and distant future,
My fine and distant future, I’m just beginning way.
I hear voice from distant future very often,
It is calling me to long awaited lands.
I hear voice, and it is asking very strictly
If I’m ready for the distant future yet.
I dream I shall be purer and nicer,
And I’ll never leave my friend without help.
I hear that voice and I’m heading to it quickly
To the melody of crystal ringing bells.
Watched your video on the economy. I recommend you check out Martin Armstrongs blog on https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/ and if you get a chance watch the documentary movie made about him The Forecaster – The story of Martin Armstrong about how our government put him in prison to try and get his computer code. They failed. You might find Socrates predictions on the economy interesting. I enjoy your work and the service you perform for humanity.
Yeah Armstrong and I go WAY back. I remember reading his type written report from prison, where, incidentally, he was attacked by an inmate put into his cell with him for the purpose of doing so. The bad guy used Martin’s typewriter to bash him. Marty’s a tough guy.
And how Bill Browder and Mikhail Kasyanov stole the $5 billion IMF loan from the Russian treasury, laundered it through Browder’s employer Edmond Safra’s Republic Bank of New York. Safra smelled a rat, and went to the SEC, then flew back to his high security penthouse in Monaco. Safra and his wife were found dead in a “Safe Room”, his male nurse was stitched up for the deaths. I believe Martin also thinks Browder set him up.
There are no such charges or indictment against Kasyanov. Bunch of crap.
Bill Browder and Mikhail Kasyanov laundered the $5 billion IMF loan to the Russian treasury, via his employer Edmund Safra’s Republic Bank of New York. When Safra smelled a rat, he ran to the SEC. He then flew home to Monaco, to his high security penthouse, and was found dead along with his wife after a suspicious fire in their “Safe Room”. Safra’s male nurse Ted Maher was stitched up, and served eight years for the murders. He is still working to clear his name. I believe Martin also thinks her was setup by Browder.
Look into the work of Russian journalist Oleg Lurie who has done extensive work on Kasyanov, just because he has not been indicted doesn’t mean he isn’t responsible – same goes double for Browder.
Kasyanov fell out of favor a long time ago, was pursued over a fairly minor real estate privatization deal, and forced out of politics and into obscurity. If he had directly, personally helped to steal $5 billion, I as a consumer of Russian news would have heard about it. I don’t need some “read this, it proves everything” pointer from a non-Russian. And BTW, Martin Armstrong is a huckster and full of crap. I lost a lot of money, taking his financial advice. (Fortunately made it all back and then some later, playing the opposite of what he said.) Good day.
Indeed? Wow. So quite an accusation against Martin Armstrong. Your experience faintly jibbed with a very vague feeling I’ve had about M.A. all along. Hmmm…
Not a verb I would have chosen. ‘Enriched’ for me would be what the sound really is when flying one of those Bad Boys.
One question: to what extent has prewar corruption in the military affected the Russian army’s ability to fight now? Does anyone know
People from front said in start of special operation Russia have no quadrocopters for soldiers, only drones like Orlan. Now situation is more better.
“For America’s tomorrow, the Brandon fre@kshow hasn’t done squat. ” They aimed at their own feet and pulled the trigger.
From ASB Military some images linked below demonstrating the durability of the SU-25, with the following descriptive:
“Russian Su-25 (not SM3 version with EW) hit by MANPADS makes it back to base as usual.When a rocket hits the engine, a fire usually starts — The pilot then quickly turns off the failed engine, shuts off the supply of kerosene to the engine and activates the fire extinguishing system with the built in dedicated button. In the Su-25, the engine can be extinguished only once. However, on this plane, after being hit by a rocket, the same engine caught on fire twice. And yet everything still worked out.”
Tough old bird, this one.
Superlatives for Drezin Report as always. Particularly like your freewheeling translations. I’ve given up on American journos.. but there are likely *Ernie Pyle* level combat journos (implanted?) with Russian forces .. would love to see the Dreizin Treatment for/on Russian Journos in *Ernie Pyle* worthy combat posts ..
Just though that another relevant line from the song is “and will never leave a friend in trouble”.
This post (and especially the song) has squeezed my heart in so many ways. Next time I am in the DC area (from my dusty and windy Southwest), I would like to buy you a lunch and shake your hand vigorously.
The Duran are saying by the way that the US has run out of Javelins that can be sent. Apparently, 7000 have been used or destroyed.
What does the new “Send the …..” catch phrase need to be now? What is left to send? Maybe the British have some WW2 QF 25 pounders in a store room somewhere? They have anti tank capability apparently.
The Su-25 is carrying S-13 rocket pods. These are essentially 122mm rockets like the Grad. The Russians have invested heavily on bombing computers on all strike aircraft to maximize the accuracy and efficacy of the dumb munitions, seeing it as a much better investment than lots of guided munitions. They got to refine a lot of this in Syria.
Those S-13s will likely be used on a hardened target, probably a command or supply bunker.
Man they’re flying low. That is one cool video.
I must say that soundtrack to the film was very poignant, even though I didn’t understand the lyrics I felt the emotion. What’s happened to the US? Why aren’t the people out on the streets like the time of the Vietnam war? Is it because their troops are not directly involved? I despair of mankind and believe this is the bleakest time of my life.
A pretty literal translation is here:
However, the less literal but rhyming translation would be this:
Margaret, I could write a whole essay trying to answer your question. The simplest answer is, of course, this is not the 1960s, young people today are not Baby Boomers, and the war is not Viet Nam and there is no draft. Those are just the obvious things. Going deeper takes one into the current attack on the United States by bad actors both foreign and domestic. It is a truly vast conspiracy.
The video of the 2 U 25’s, is from the FighterBomber you tube Channel, Hence The FB watermark logo.
Its an interesting channel.
I subscribed. Thanks.
Jacob really enjoyed your comments on Russian Cruise missiles. The first time I heard of Russia using cruise missiles was in Syria as part of the opening of Russia’s involvement into the war in September 2015.
I was surprised by two things: 1) That Russia had cruise missiles and they were accurate to as you say “a few meters,” and 2) they were fired from ships of the Russian Caspian Sea fleet. My surprise here was that Russia had a Caspian Sea fleet, that had cruise missiles, and that could be effective 1,000+ miles from the target. From that day on I had a new found respect for the Russian military. Pity the Americans have only recently found that out.
Keep up the good work. As they say “Nils bastadi carborundum”
This video brought tears to my eyes even though I am not Russian. God bless the members of the Armed Forces who in the darkest hour step forward to fight. In the Indian Army, every soldier takes an oath: First – the safety, honor and welfare of your country comes first, always and every time. Second – the honor, welfare and comfort of the men you command come next. Third – your own ease, comfort and safety come last, always and every time.
US imagery like that is clearly understood to be classified. How so much gets in the the media I don’t know. Outside of losing a classification and almost certain jail time, I would be worried about getting a soldier killed or captured.
The video is sublime. Thank you Jacob for everything that you do.
One of my favorite Russian sayings is “поживём, увидим,” in the context of “we’ll see what happens.”
I found someone’s translation of the song lyrics to that song, but since the translator’s name is Yulia Savicheva, I presume she is Russian. The translation is not perfect either and gives a different version on the title and last line.
The Beautiful Far Away
I hear a voice from the Beautiful Far Away
A morning voice in silver dew
I hear a voice – and the luring road
Makes me dizzy, just like the merry-go-round of my childhood
The Beautiful Far Away
Don’t be cruel to me
Don’t be cruel to me
From a clean source
towards the Beautiful Far Away
towards the Beautiful Far Away
I’m starting my way
I hear a voice from the Beautiful Far Away
It is calling me to lands of marvel
I hear a voice – and the voice is asking solemnly
what I did today for the sake of tomorrow.
I would change the last line to “what did I do today for the sake of tomorrow” and the title to “A Radiant Future.”
But I also like your translations. Translations in no way should be literal word-for-word renditions of the original, they must convey the meaning. This is coming from a professional Russian-English translator with 40 years of experience.
Beautiful song and translation – conscience is asking everyone what you one done NOW , to make tomorrow better… each day and every day. And yes, the images and the music soundtrack are very speaking to anyone who was born in USSR- as a generation we have wasted our tomorrow and will do what we can for our children (and grandchildren) to have it without fascism that awakened when we were weak/asleep at the wheel..
What is the Russian air force doing you ask? Defending Russia and the Russian people. Guardians in the sky. Stunning video and song. I teared up. Thanks Jason.
Jacob, Don’t know if you are aware of quite famous painting “Grachi prilteli”. Grachi being a plural of specieas of birds and also of this type of tactical attack panes that you mentioned. You might want to add a snapshot of the painting for a decoration to this artcile.
Wonderful post and love that music. Singer has a beautiful voice.
BTW, what is the opening music from your youtube channel?
Is it Shostakovitch?
It’s “Dance of the Knights” by Prokofiev.
From Romeo and Juliet
it’s prohibited music today=)
As an Ex-Military Australian Intelligence Analyst – At first I was sceptical of Russia’s use of (tactics) rocket pods in their Su-25s and Helicopters, i.e. where we see them fly low and fast, then pull up firing a volley at high angle for in-accurate artillery-like effect on enemy positions/areas. Why not more CAS or enemy hunt missions?
But now, I think I’m starting to understand – consider the Russian MoD, grand plan is manoeuvre warfare, pin the enemy down and then slowly grind them down, until surrender or defeat.
Most effective way to do this, artillery and long range missiles – it’s all about saturation of fire, more rounds on target, more likely the opposing force suffers damage and attrition.
For the Russian Airforce, getting further ahead compared to where Artillery can fire and saturating an area, is all part of this slow-grind, every-single-day, it doesn’t need to be accurate.
In my opinion, this tactic with the rockets also means you get an effect of fire into an enemy position, but you also greatly limit the chance of your own jets and helicopters being shot down by MANPADs as we all know the Ukraine Army still has plenty left – but these systems take time to sight and lock-onto a target, most are not a fire-and-forget in seconds technology, they take time for their missile seekers on the MANPAD to acquire their target depending on the seeker type – a low and fast target, this is very hard to hit let alone lock onto quickly.
I was a Radar Analyst for some time, so I have intimate knowledge of how many of these missile systems, MANPADs included work – as always, it’s rarely like you see on movies, they’re more complex and in many cases not as reliable or easy to use as they may seem – especially to operators who have limited training or are using systems they’re not use to, e.g. US tech vs Soviet tech.
So in summary – these Su-25s and Helicopter runs with rockets are aiding the slow grind of artillery fire – while the more advanced Russian AF assets do the strategic high altitude bombing or fire of long range weapons.
I think all this is a smart move by the Russian MoD, they’re really trying to limit their losses, and just remember, once Ukraine is over – the war with the West/NATO isn’t just going to magically disappear – why risk their Airforce with high-risk CAS missions when they can just slowly grind away and achieve the same goals.
Thanks again Jacob – glad I’m subscribed to your blog now, keep up the excellent work.
Russia has accumulated a huge amount of weapons since the Soviet Union – I am talking about unguided air missiles and artillery shells. They are cheap and very many. As noted by Russian military experts, Russia has not yet used almost 40 types of modern weapons. For example, the missiles “Zirkon”, FAB-5000 or vacuum bombs. Perhaps they will be used when the war reaches the west of Ukraine. We will soon know.
Great article. Could you bring a little light to the soft spot Russia has for Crimea. Seems like President Putin is overly protective of it. Any insight would be greatly appreciated.
Working with several ladies (Site Admins, very fastidious) from the area, I know they speak, read and write Russian setting up the secondary language on their laptops. My wife’s aunt is Ukrainian (speaking Ukrainian and Polish) and as a translator for those who came to our part of Saskatchewan during an influx of tradesmen, she was of little help. Crimea is majority ethnic Russians who speak Russian and have family ties to the area going way back. Why wouldn’t they see themselves as Russian before Ukrainian if being Crimean is a sin against Voldemort zElensky?
Why is nobody talking about the bridges over the Dnieper? Do the Ukrainians hold any that are intact?
Every time Ukraine has retreated they leave weapons/equipment behind. I believe that is why they are training the replacements on NATO weapons. IN MY Opinion sadly they are using these people’s lives in Donbass to buy time for a new NATO army to to train and pretend to be Ukrainian and invade Russian held territory come fall with I expect air cover.
People who foolishly want to see RuAF perform like what USAF did in US “brush wars” either intentionally dishonest or plain stupid , US air power never fought against enemy with high density of AD and MANPADS like what the ukrops have courtesy of donations from NATO. The so called western air power dominance only seen when fighting insurgents who have zero abilities to contest US air power.
Here we saw the correct way to run a war , Russia showed the world how to run military campaign. Peope in the west so deeply delusinal because of the constant propaganda of US military prowess cannot see the obvious happening in SMO. Russia uses Artilery to deliver devastating strikes which is what the most effective form of ordnance delivery in any war, while US fly around strike jets to drop a few kgs of ordnance and using tremendous resources just to drop it. Pound for Pound the artilery and smart weapons use by russians are far more effective than any air power doctrine from delusional west.
Never have US air power need to fight in environment saturated by modern air defense. The so called loiter CAS that some ppl here claimed as the gest form of CAS indicate the zero undestanding of real war. Theres no place for slow lumbering A10 (much hyped) in MANPAD saturated area , SU25 fly faster than the fat ugly A10 whose cannons are wrapped in mystical hype. US attack helicopters also cannot operate like what they used to do in LIC environment, they will need to move fast and use terrain hugging NoE to avoid missiles. and there wont be many helicopter transport operation near front lines as lumbering transports are fodder for missiles.
How many of you remember the shotdown of CH53 in lebanon by hezbollah ? IDF foolishly tried to land paratroopers north of litani river before cease fire and their helo was shotdown forcing the abort operation. Since no more helo allowed to pick the paratroopers they have to walk home. Only the ceasefire saved these paratroopers from hezbollah encirclement and destruction.
Rissia let’s results speak for themselves!!!!
Great Stuff! Absolutely awesome! Keep up the good work.
We are so used to hearing words that are not used properly that we have lost the ability to understand real situations.
“Existential Threat”, We were told Saddam Hossein, half a world away, has WMD and it is an “Existential Threat” to our “National Security” (another overused word). Russia realistically was under “Existential Threat” for Her “National Security” so they had to do what they did. We (US) wanted this, we pushed Russia to take this measure, we knew this would happen. Maybe we did it on purpose but the sad fact is many innocent lives were lost and many families lost their loved ones. I seriously doubt if this is a calculation factor in our foreign policy. Look how many millions have been killed since WWII because of our exceptionalism. West has lost real social/family values and Russia is preserving it with all the might they can muster.
Remember Russia has the SVP-24 automatic bomb sight-
It would appear that Zelenski is following Soviet strategy and tactics from WW2 during the German invasion of 1941. When the Red Army constantly counterattacked using new reserve armies. The Red Army suffered horrendous losses in 1941. 3.5 mln men just captured POWs alone. 2/3rds of which were murdered by the Germans.
Zelenski & Joe Biden and his puppet masters are responsible for the needless slaughter of Ukrainian military personnel.
One thing I have noticed is they never seem to have a full loadout, same with the helicopters, are they running out of targets to hit?
the only time aircraft or helo seen with full loadout is when they do photoshoot. Tactic , distance , threat , speed , time all dictate real world load out of anycp mission
The video of a day to day mission of a combat pilot, the skill, discipline, calculated risk analysis, the skills on par with any millionaire athlete. Merits a “one plane and pilot destroyed” Why do men of talent and intelligence still end up on the wrong end of the stick while at the same time mocked in the western media for their “macho values”
Hello Jacob, I have a question.
Won’t the “heat thingies” and the “decoy thingies” from one plane accidentally hit the plane that is slightly behind when they turn? Thanks.
They fly so low, it looks like a train ride but faster.
My greatest admiration for those brave Russian pilots. May God protect them.
Thanks for the explanations, and helping to understand the reasons not having too much “info” for this part from press (even Russian). On Russian webs, when they provide infos, it sounds more to a “commercial” trailer / description.
“Today, what have I done for tomorrow?” – I keep it, very great. It is not accepted anymore in western sides : quick wins is the new religion.
You mentioned the oil and gas. Do you they are a major reason for the invasion? Thanks.
Are you asking about Ukrainian oil and natural gas resources being the reason for Russia’s special military operation? Ukrainian gas and oil are almost nonexistent in comparison to what Russia has. The only reason for military operation is that Ukraine was rapidly turning into anti Russia force (high quality mil manpower armed by NATO). Ukraine was about to start its operation to overrun Donbass (DNR and LNR) and was beaten to the punch by less than a week. This is oversimplification but it is still valid.
Unfortunately enough artillery pieces from Europe and America are getting through to let the Ukr do what they do best, fire shells at selected civilian targets around Donetsk city. After all there chief of staff says this is there primary mission and they leave territorial defence units behind to transmit coordinates then ‘surrender’ if they’re surrounded but as you’d well know the shell fragments or shrapnel leaves a trace. The French Caesar guns have definitely killed civilians.
One of the useful aspects of reading this blog is that it is a window into the state of mind of the “sane” fraction of the US population. And by sane, I mean normal productive people that typically don’t overreact to crises or misfortune. Yes, we are a minority now, but still formidable.
Today’s blog tone strongly suggests that our host is growing increasing frustrated with what I call the “CRAZY” that is now permeating our public airways and national discourse. IOW, as the spring winds tighter and the pressure builds, sane people are no longer content to remain on the sidelines biting their tongues. As gas and food prices skyrocket, the impact of the CRAZY is hitting close to home and more & more people are getting fed up. My point in this diatribe is simply this . . . at some point in time, actions will have to replace words (bitching alone changes nothing).
The Ukraine government, too, is crazy.
>at some point in time, actions will have to replace words (bitching alone changes nothing).
I guess that’s what the Ukrainian military might be thinking at this point. Late-stage Hitler had multiple designs against him going, because wehrmacht brass was eventually not as optimistic about the endsieg anymore. (Rommel, if I remember correctly, was collecting signatures for impeaching the third reich commander in chief before other soldiers pointed out to him that that was not how national sociaslism worked.)
I fear that they are quite deliberately sparing their more valuable equipment for what comes after Ukraine, those TU-22M and TU-160 have a very special task for which they were made after all(God willing we will never see that footage on our screens).
I used to live out near the Honolulu International Airport. Every morning the Hawaii National Guard sends up an Anti-Submarine patrol of 2 fighters. First the tanker would launch–none of these planes had any kind of mufflers, so the tanker would wake me up. A few minutes later the 2 fighters would launch and stand on their afterburners chasing up to the tanker. This was every morning for the 2 years I lived out there.
One morning I had to walk through downtown Honolulu to get to my car. It happened to be on Veteran’s Day. Every Veteran’s Day the Blue Angels would fly a “Missing Man” formation over Punchbowl National Military Cemetery. Then the planes would separate and fly around the city. (I am used to doing large concert sound systems which I always thought were pretty loud.) The sound of one plane half a mile away, echoing from the streets and buildings was louder than anything else I have ever heard! If I was trying to fight something like that, I would be trying to crawl into the deepest hole I could find! Just the sound of the engines was terrifying. I can’t imagine how much worse it would be if ordinance was coming down on my position.
My sympathies to the people in the Donbas. Bless the Russians for finally saying “enough is enough”. Drive all the Nazis back to Berlin. Again! (All their tattoos will be illegal there.)
“Гостья из будущего” / A guest from the future is an iconic children’s book about a girl, Alisa (Alice) Selezneva. Several books are dedicated to her. She travelled the space with her dad, collecting animals from other galaxies for the Moscow zoo – a cartoon is based on this story.
TV-series “Guest from the future”are based on another adventure when Alisa appears in the past – in Moscow of 1984. She needs to find the way to return, but in the meantime she acts like a normal girl in a normal Moscow school… The series were iconic for all Soviet children who are now 45+. Lots of catchy phrases from there are now part of the Russian “folklore”. And when we hear this song, we feel that we can do better!
Unfortunately we were too young in 1991. We just watched our parents lives being destroyed. We survived, but the feeling of injustice stayed. Now I think for many people of my generation it’s like a chance to make things right.
At 1:45 in the video, the two Su25’s fire Rockets at a target. That is NOT flares. Having flown A6e Intruders in the US Navy, I have routinely flown low missions before, it seems the A6e was the last western airplane to fight low, now they only fly high, assuming air superiority.
Thanks, i did not say the rockets are flares. I dont know what he was shooting at, so i said nothing about the rockets.
Swedish air force attack AJ-37 Viggen’s flew very low (with associated fatalities) until the recent NATO alignment of Sweden defense infrastructure so in the early 2000’s.
These pilots are flying about 100 feet of the ground over those fields. I am sure on manual pilot control. The Su 25 is kind of an old jet but like a lot of Russian stuff it is like a pickup truck. It is not super flashy but it gets the job done and is reliable. For flashy and sexy, they have the Su 34. Russian planes can land and take off on snow, beaten up old airfields with weeds and even dirt airstrips.. Amazing. Their stuff just works. American jets require lots of endless maintenance so they call them hangar queens. U.S. jets also cannot take off from junky old airfields.
Jacob – in Syria the Russians were able to very cheaply turn old dumb bombs into smart bombs (JDAMs as the USA calls them). The Russians did it with math, physics and a few cheap little gadgets. So they turned a huge inventory of old dumb bombs into smart bombs for pennies.
Reminds me of hueys blasting out Ride of the Valkyrie. I live very close to US and UK air bases and regularly get to see the latest hardware . The scariest thing about these birds is that you don’t hear them till they’re gone. The free schools meals, ask if risk assessments have been done as its well known that for a lot of children their school meal is their main meal of the day. It may not be PC. but spare a thought also for woman sportsman without d*cks that have trained all of their lives to suddenly have to compete with woman with d*cks. Something is wrong .
Hi Jacob, What surprises me the most is how the Ukrainians keep popping up with planes and helicopters to shoot down. There is only so many places to hide a Jet aircraft right. Are they hiding them in underground bunkers ?
Great question. It’s a big country, and they are constantly shuffling the stuff around.
They have been getting new donations of aircraft. Saw something about a dozen SU-25 in spare parts. Poland gave all its MiG-29 spare parts. Even the US had some helicopters. Though the stocks of Soviet aircraft seems to be running on empty in the EU at this point.
Are pronoun and bathroom policies reserved just for civilian institutions? Military is also employed by the government. Can insiders here please provide some insight? Thank you!
Nice video and a great song. It is so pure and meaningful at the same time – thank you! RuAF is working hard. Tactical so called “army” aviation works the hardest (S-25 and K-52 mostly but good old M-24 are also working well) because they’re working in the range of manpads and area is heavily saturated with those.
Here’s a link to a very good video of “Orchestra” (if you know what I mean) Su-25 during storming of Popasnaya. https://youtu.be/w7UbSrLn0UI
Lots of video’s on Fighterbomber telegram channel (ex Su-34 pilot) https://t.me/fighter_bomber/7481
I would not say that there’s less than 10% of Ukro air defense still operating. More like 20% and they’re still dangerous.
Right. A question is why dont the Russians carpet bomb the entrenched Ukrainians in the Donbas? It would surely be more efficient than lobbing thousands of artillery rounds into the trenches. The trouble is if you fly high you are easily spotted by radars and then can be engaged by SAMs. Solutions include electronic warfare (spoofing the radars), destroying the radars/SAMS, stealth planes, or flying low so that you stay below the horizon most of the time. Flying low has its own risks, as you are vulnerable to MANPADS such as Stingers and to cannon fire. The fact that the Russians are still flying low or launching cruise missiles from stand-off distances implies that Ukrainian ground based air defences are indeed still dangerous.
My god, those Russians know how to affect you with music.
Thanks Jacob for the report. The air force would be very useful against a large retreating column, which might explain that thus far, we are not seeing one from any of the besieged areas.
This is great. And good news. I liked the song, too. What’s the word on the electronics in the missiles and other weapon systems? According to the choir of normie media, the Russians are running out of parts because they buy in the US, Korea and Taiwan. This sounds somewhat unconvincing to me, because 1.) Military electronics, especially aviation, traditionally uses tried and trusted electronics, not the latest gamer rig components. 2.) Cruise missiles have used computers since 1970 or earlier, which were “as small as a loaf of bread” (Reader’s Digest), so I guess you don’t need current Taiwan for that. 3.) Making one’s military dependent on foreign suppliers for arms is Biden-tier stupid and probably not how the Russian military rolls. 4.) Russia can do 49nm now, which was the state of affairs around 2007. I doubt that even commercial avionics equipment in an Airbus has more recent technology than that. What’s more, during the cold war, Russia has often proved the ability to make more with less in terms of hardware, by sheer seat-of-the-pants willpower and ingeniuity. (Cold war chess computing dick-fencing contests were a good example, as US insiders were pointing out again and again at the time.)
In related happy (in all likelihood bogus) news: a couple of months ago, desperate Russian arms manufacturers were raiding civilian fridges and washing-machines for microcontrollers for putting those into their weapon systems. This is ridiculously implausible for various reasons.)
Btw, I located the Azov song “Bandera is our father and Ukraine our mother” on youtube and spammed Azov-loving family, together with the wikipedia-link to the Bandera-article. Heads were scratched, doubts were rising, lol.
Brilliant post Jacob …. your insight and delivery are impeccable. I find it interesting that the highly respected Duran Report cites you regularly and Scott Ritter, never!! Here in Australia, Ukraine is very rarely mentioned on MSM apart from the occasional “heartrending” video of a young homeless mother who has been “terrorised by brutal Russian war crimes”. I would love to share your work on Social media but I have a lifelong ban on Twitter for offering Bill Gates to choose which eye he can have my allocated vakzeenasion jabbed into and the algos on Fakebook and Instagram make sure I am the only one who gets to see my posts.
Keep up the good work Jacob, you are truly an inspiration
Спасибо за публикацию.
Видео сообщает нам больше о более экзистенциальной перспективе. Эмоции, которые вызывают певцы, и красивые пейзажи сообщают нам о психологической реальности, а не о приближении SU 25 на низком уровне.
Мы видели, как многие из этих полетов на малых высотах размещались в Интернете.
Песня и слова рисуют нам болезненную и пронзительную реальность войны, она вызвала у меня слезы
It is a beautiful song.
The rockets are 122mm S-13s, being fired in _indirect mode_ (like Katyushas, of the same caliber). Which indicates a lot of ‘respect’ for the Stingers as these things will fly between 4-6km downrange when used as area fire weapons. With only 10 onboard however; their accuracy is quite low. I’m not seeing any sign of MAKS which is the Soviet acronym for their Missile Approach Warning System, installed on Su-24/34 and some 25s. Instead, these seem to be run on programs off the EWMS which simply pops a few off when the pickel is consented.
Needless to say, this is not ‘CAS’. It is BAI/OBAS, on premission briefed, fixed, targets. At best.
It has supposedly been revealed that Russian ALCM/SLCM like the Kh-101 and Kalibr are in fact using locator beacons, left by 5th columnists, to update their INS systems. Apparently GPS has been ‘altered’ to insert a cumulative drift error, over time and as such is no longer providing 2-3m accuracy. While GLONASS is all but completely messed up. Ground beacons can be placed using satellite imagery which is accurate to within the limits of the IMINT bird’s known orbital mechanic and optical angle (i.e. inches to a few feet) and as the missile flies over them, it updates to the known emplacement position before the INS starts to drift again. if it happens within five miles of a target, the missile will probably hit a ten meter target. Not enough to take out a bridge piling but enough to airburst over a traction station or stopped convoy/truck park.
USOCOM and Ukrainian military have been involved in a wombat hunt for the placers of these little devices and Ukrainians seem to fervently maintain that, without them, the cruise missiles are worthless because they don’t have TERCOM/DSMAC like the Tomahawk uses. Dunno.
Now THIS is perfect example of the high knowledge base of many readers of Jakob’s posts. A lot of the tech lingo goes right by my knowledge but I store away such terms and over time they accumulate and I begin to learn. Many thanks NOYB. P.S. Song is a bit too much for me. But if 80s TV understandable.
Great post. I’ve questioned the effectiveness of Russian CAS. Watched numerous videos like this one. Low level approach and then abounce up and a launch of the rockets to give them a ballistic trajectory. Don’t see how they can be terribly accurate and does not seem cost effective to run 2 aircraft (at $5k/hour) and pilots just to deliver 30 or 40 rockets.
The need to stay so low deprives the aircraft of some of its main advantage in spotting targets from alttitude. Using aircraft to hunt artillery would seem like a natural mission that the density of manpads denies the Russians. The 2 big lessons I see coming out of the Russian experience is a better CAS answer in contested airspace and improved ability to suppress artillery.
The Density of manpads would likely have the same impact on US CAS. I think it just adds to the argument that all of these sorts of missions will increasingly go to unmanned.
Psychological warfare if I am allowed to make a guess. Something that flies just about your tactical helmet making apocalyptic noise that you think you hear the trombones if Jericho will make you propably fight less fiercely. So what is 5k an hour compared to that?
$5k per hour based on what metric? Toss away fuel cost and being grossly overcharged for anything fabbed by civilian contractors, now what’s the cost?
Novatron is cranking out 30-50 Kalibrs/day, depending on spec. FWIW, all the Kalibrs in the videos I’ve seen have been one of the subsonic variants, which means RU can hit ~50 targets/day with Kalibrs without depleting inventory.
Kalibr established its accuracy bonafides in Oct 2015 when they hit ISIS targets in Syria having travelled >1500km from the Caspian Sea. At least some of those were capable of going super-sonic on approach, as their jettisoned engines were found in Iran (which some mistook for missiles falling short).
In contrast, the Tomahawk, the primary US cruise missile is notoriously inaccurate. An article citing a USM study I read a few years after the war found that during the “shock ‘n awe” campaign on Baghdad in 2003, less than 20% of the Tomahawks hit their targets. Judging by their performance at Shayrat airbase in Syria, either the 20% is generous, or their guidance systems have degenerated. 59/60 made it to Syria, but the “hits” could be counted on one hand. About half missed the base altogether, and a few strayed far afield. One hit a village.The excuse at the time was that the US wanted to “send a message”, and not actually put the base out of commission. I’d guess the message was interpreted correctly, and the base resumed operations within hours.
SU-25… analog to the A-10. Tough plane. Low level flying to avoid manpads. Very impressive.
Dear VS, now THAT is useful! Even I know the A-10 Warthog. If that is what these planes are like, perfect tool to use in low altitude, ground hugging
I would rather have the A-10’s I think.
Preferably without depleted uranium ammunition?
From Xoaquin Flores on Telegram: Russia has used in Ukraine a link of 4 Su-57 (multirole stealth) fighters linked into a single information network to destroy air defense facilities.
The Russian Aerospace Forces conducted an operation to identify and defeat the air defense of Ukraine with a link of 4 newest Su-57 fighters combined into an information network due to automatic communication systems,data transmission, navigation and identification in real time,which increases combat capabilities to identify and defeat targets,” a source told RIA Novosti.
Nice looking bit of kit – with similar networking tech to the “Terminator” and T-90 on the ground, by the look of it.
They each have their place. They’re not the most beautiful, that being either the su-25 or a-10, but to me they’re functionally gorgeous. They do the job they were designed to do. I like that.
More versatile than an A-10.
What is a “manpad”?
Someone please connect this gentleman to the Internet.
Sorry, got it. I keep forgetting to Google anything. Someone connect me to the 21st century.
obviously the Russians ran out of kerosene months ago 🙂
I know, Jacob, that you’ve seen the Patrick Lancaster interview with the Uky colonel who, along with his wife, have opted for citizenship in the Russian Federation. My take was that, while he and she felt uncomfortable talking on camera — perhaps they fear a local assassin? — they knew this was the right thing to do and that now is the right time to do it. (Of course, I have to filter my impressions through a language barrier that does not exist for you.) Do you thnk this colonel’s decision is an anomaly or do you see him as a trend-setter. I noticed that he urged his comrades in arms to follow his lead.
I’ve seen another group leader from local defense unit to switch sides as well.
This is an important development/phenomenon. The extent to which the Russians can garner support in the population at large is going to determine the entire geopolitics following the end of the “special operation”.
Thank you, Jacob. Especially for Limp D*ck Losers — oh how I despise them….
But, “the experts” have been telling me since week 2 that the Russians are running out of missiles. Surely they aren’t wrong???
I guess it will all change once the Ukrainians get their hands on those German submarines they want. I mean that’s probably the most simple weapons system you can get, isn’t it???
You get the occasional scenes* taken from fighter jets like the Su 30 or Su 35, but since they cruise way above ground, there is not much to see but a rocket or cruise missile speeding off towards a target.
Donezk city is not that far away from the front line, going by rocket launchers and ballistic missiles. The former can shoot over 20 to 40 km (even the old BM 21 Grad) and it is nearly impossible to intercept a volley of 20 or more unguided rockets. The Russians have it easier with the Totchka-Us and similar ballistic missiles, of whom they intercept quite a few, if you check the daily reports by the Russian MoD. It is “interesting” to note that these attacks on civilians in the Donbass area are either omitted completely in the Western media, or, as it happens regularly in Germany, the name of the city is being said, even how many civilians have died, but not who shot the missiles. And the whole report is strung in such a way that anyone not aware of the geography involved (which holds true for about 70+ % of your average German audience) would assume these were actually Russian attacks.
As the report above mentions, it is quite interesting to see how many cruise missiles and guided missiles have been and are fired in the conflict. If anything, the Russian weapon industry is sure working 24/7 these days.
* southfront.org or e.g. Slava Intel Z telegram channel.
Thanks Jacob, you analyses are always informative but you have a kind of “style” also.
A question: why is T22 not used, form a much greater height where Stingers cannot harm it?
as far as I know the Tu-22M has been used all along to deliver cruise missiles
That explains a lot.
Not so much a missile shortage as a target shortage.
The informers on the ground was always going to happen – much like half the Ukrainian military joining with the rebels in 2014. But other than a careless Ukrainian Defence minister back in 2015 nobody has ever dared say this.
Why can’t Russia, et al take out whatever forces are targeting Donetsk?
I Respect American Republicans I respect Americans before their democracy. but Russia is not America America is accustomed to indiscriminately bombarding everything for 40 days as in Iraq I will only say that Russia is not fighting against the Ukrainian people but against the Ukrainian Nazis and other terrorists. if he wanted Russia, he would compare Ukraine to the earth in 24 hours
OK thanks, but you’ve got to use some punctuation marks!
It’s an honorable but not cost-effective way of war. God may be on our side but he is not going to part the heavens and strike down fascists on our behalf. Mercy will get you killed. Theosis, sin and other abstract considerations have no place in the military. War is an affair for pragmatists. Sacrificing one’s own hostages is more effective in the long run than saving them as demonstrated by Israel.
It isn’t “compare to earth, but to level down to the ground. It isn’t” сравнить” as in compare or equal, but” сровнять”, as in flatten, make it smooth. If your native language grammar is wrong, it will be even worse when machine translated to another language.
Donetsk is really close to the front line and this means that with long range weapons Ukraine military can hit Donetsk from almost an infinite number of places. If Ukraine military only fires a couple of volleys from their artillery and then hide then, either Russian artillery or air force cannot strike quick enough to destroy the guns that are targeting Donetsk. I guess eventually Russia can hunt all the artillery pieces down but not fast enough so that the Donetsk protection is guaranteed. This is as much as I know.
Location, location, location and civilians. Ukraine gov and forces need something that can be sold as a war crime. Best way to do this is to decorate your firebase in civilians and while the media would have you believe them incapable of such, many of their NATO trainers would tell you otherwise. My brother was on the horn with 4 of them just after that first hit on a NATO training facility. Two were still training Ukrainians in Latvia and the other two were doing the same at a NATO base in Poland.
Yes – my question too
Would have thought it would be like spearing fish in a barrell
But – I am sure they know better than you and I
I think, Bruce, the reason the RF doesn’t bomb the poop out of the Orcs bombing Donetsk is because the enemy have put their big guns next to houses/schools/hospitals or whatever! The Russians are trying to keep civilians and civilian infrastructure destruction to the minimum.
i think the “wheres RuAF” question are the same concern troll question who have asked ukraine talking points , like “what happen to the stuck 40 mile convoy ?” “why russian so slow?” “did you see kiev offensive in kharkov” “whats happening in khenson?” “will russia ran out of guided weapons in 2 weeks?” “why russia lost so many men / tank / aircraft?”
i saw precisely the same method of these trolling all round the net , pretending to be innocent question while saying their concern about russian soldier endlessly ambushed and decimated by tough ukrop fighters..
these trolls dont care about facts or truth , just spreading disinfo nonsense