If you don’t care about geopolitics, skip to near the bottom, we’ve got fireworks cooking off here in the USA as well.
The above tweet, showing natural gas rising from a destroyed section of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, is from Radoslaw (“Radek”) Sikorski…..
…..a former Polish defense minister, former deputy minister of foreign affairs, husband to the American neocon Anne Applebaum, and former fellow at the Republican-aligned AEI thinktank in Washington, DC.
He’s also very likely to be a “CIA asset” (you know, like an informant or influence agent or something.)
During the Bush Jr. years, Sikorski was a Republican favorite, due to his outspoken alignment with Don Rumsfeld’s intended “New Europe” policy of moving American military bases (and CIA prisons) to eastern Europe, as revenge for mainland western Europe’s lack of enthusiasm for the Iraq invasion and for U.S. pressure on Iran.
Poland then became Europe’s leading voice against construction of Nord Stream 2, as its government viewed the high cost of American LNG as a small price to pay for cutting Germany down to size and becoming Uncle Sam’s new best friend on the continent.
So, as you can see, this guy Sikorsky is now VERY happy.
You might have heard that not one but both Baltic undersea gas pipelines—including both branches of Nord Stream 1—from Russia to Germany were severed on Tuesday by what a Swedish seismological station described as explosions.
The pipes were not in use (Nord Stream 2 was full of gas, though sealed)…..
…..but were nonetheless the only hope of providing Russian gas to most of Europe, should the pipelines running through the Ukraine lose their function.
It’s been widely assumed in Russia, and more recently among the U.S. establishment and its press…..
…..that after accepting four new (formerly Ukrainian) provinces into its fold in the coming days, Russia would make the Ukraine an ultimatum to “get off our (new) land“, after which…..
…..Ukrainian infrastructure would be severely targeted, and the power would go out, making Russia’s job much easier, as the Ukraine’s communications, pumping/fueling, and mostly-electric train system go dead.
Now, after the Nord Stream 1 and 2 explosions…..
…..if Russia does turn off the lights…..
…..the gas pipelines through the Ukraine would likely cease to function, or at least be much more difficult to run… and yet there’s no alternative to them.
(I’m not sure if gas must be pumped at periodic intervals like pipelined oil, but there’s got to be some meter checks, or routine maintenance, or something else along the length of the line that needs power.)
Now, literally just as the Donetsk / Lugansk / Zaporozhie / Kherson referendums are concluding, on Tuesday morning, the Baltic pipelines get blown up…..
…..And all of a sudden, later the same day (Tuesday), the elections office in Russian-controlled Kherson says it may need up to FIVE MORE DAYS to make its announcement on the results (sounds like the Democrats, LOL.)
Obviously, with the pro-Russia vote margin that they’ve already tentatively claimed to have, they don’t “really” need that time.
But, Russia intended to make no ultimatum to the Ukraine until it had accepted all four regions simultaneously (which by all accounts, was supposed to happen before the end of this month.)
It was widely assumed in Russia that high-level talks with Europe (clearly excluding the USA) are ongoing, intended to find a way to potentially “freeze” the conflict, so that Europe doesn’t literally freeze this winter.
It looks like some “third party” just put a crimp on those plans.
And now, if Russia turns off the lights in the Ukraine…..
…..while Nord Stream 1 and 2 are broken…..
…..Russia probably won’t earn any gas money until the lights go back on.
(OK, there’s still the (also vulnerable) undersea South Stream to Turkey and the Balkans, and the Siberian pipeline to China, but these don’t compare to the volumes and $$$ going through the Ukraine. Going without any gas sales to western Europe would be tough on Russia; it could also be the end of European civilization as we know it.)
As you can see, “a certain party” has made its move.
The delay in Kherson’s vote results announcement, very likely means that Russia has not yet decided how to respond.
Of course, European rulers and their house press, will (once they’ve recovered from their shock and found some talking points) blame the explosions on Russia…..
…..while knowing they’re getting violently bent over by a middle-aged guy with a white goatee, wearing an American flag-design top hat, red bowtie, blue jacket, white shirt.
At this point, what can they do? They’re just little punks. Master’s got them all in the bag.
*****NEXT-MORNING UPDATE:***** This thing is moving fast, it looks like Kherson may have pulled a “Fairfax County” and reported its vote count, and asked to join Russia already. HOWEVER, a top, top Russian official (Valentina Matvienko, chair of the Federation Council) has just said “let the whole world wait” until **October 4th** (shifting the earlier-presumed “joining Russia” schedule by about five days.) Which just reinforces my points. At a minimum, they need more time to talk things over with the Germans etc. The destruction of the Baltic pipelines threw a BIG wrench into the spokes.
PS: Silly people keep asking me, how will it go on the frontlines, whatever. I’ve already said, months ago, this war will not be won on the battlefield, at least not in any “tactical” way. Stop wasting your own time with dumb questions, please.)
PS: As for the referendums themselves, they went remarkably well. Despite quite a bit of Terrorism, the Ukraine was unable to kill or cow a sufficient number of elections administrators/officers. They did recently kill the elections head in Berdiansk, Zaporozhie region, together with her husband, who was the deputy mayor for housing matters. They also critically wounded the head of the state university in Kherson city, in an attack that killed her bodyguard (I assume her sin was to commence university instruction in the Russian language.) Just to recount some recent incidents. But again, the majority of officials plowed through and were able to pull this off. You may or may not like or believe in the results, but people did come out to vote, and the elections workers were there to meet them, which, in the context of a DEATH SENTENCE from Zelensky and his Ukraine Security Service, is not too shabby.
Out of Time!
Folks, I told you the average U.S. 30-year mortgage rate for a regular private loan, top credit applicant, 10 percent down, would likely reach 7.0 percent by early November.
I’m sorry, I was wrong. You know, I will always admit my mistakes.
It’s at 7.0 percent right now!
Folks, we’re done.
If “The Fed” doesn’t start signaling that it’s done raising rates, the show’s over, turn out the lights. Today’s America can’t function with these rates.
If they do promise to stop hiking (even just in their usual, mealy-mouthed, roundabout way), things might settle down for a bit…..
…..but in that case, inflation’s not going away, and (as I’ve been predicting) will get MUCH worse, perhaps not in the next few months but certainly thereafter.
Whatever the case, they are out of time and space to keep bullshitting.
We’ve finally, finally come to the end of this road. They must now either (1) cause a Depression to maintain their “credibility”…..
….. or (2) “capitulate” to inflation, FINALLY giving up on the pretense that they’ll EVER bring rates up again from near-zero.
(And keep in mind, them giving up on ever fighting inflation, would itself be hugely inflationary, because as I explained about two months ago, inflation has causes but once it gets going and stays going, it’s mostly just psychology.)
This is a truly historic time, wow, we’ve finally come to this.
So many (myself included) waited years for this moment, and it’s finally happening.
Hey, whatever happens, I’ll be laughing my ass off… after I change pants, because I’m so giddy, I think I just peed myself. What a time to be alive.
It’s the start of the Great Reset…. the REAL Great Reset, not the bullshit one from the WEF crowd.
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