I’m still un-retired, couldn’t get through 2022 without a few more hits. For the vast majority who don’t celebrate any Christian holiday today, I wish you a glorious Germanic pagan winter festival.
Got another monster post for you, with a major focus on…..
…..Ukraine aid (the next big sequel is coming REAL soon)…..
…..”They died for GloboHomo“…..
…..the decisive battle of the Ukraine war, and how the Wall Street Journal missed it…..
…..an emergency message from the CDC…..
…..Trump again begging the GOP establishment to love him (oh yeah, he’s such a tough guy, for sure)…..
…..how many Americans are at elevated risk of Variant X…..
…..a Viking funeral in the Ukraine (with American guests!!!)… and…..
THE MOST COMPREHENSIVE, DETAILED REPORT ON UKRAINIAN MILITARY MANPOWER EVER PRESENTED.
When you read it, you’ll know where your money went (all the big bucks you’re spending on your Dreizin Report subscription.) You don’t see this kind of stuff, anywhere.
Also, a request for your input on a potential new masthead/logo for the Dreizin Report.
I really need feedback on the logo, so if you wish to comment on this post, sorry but you’ll have to include your thoughts on it, or your comment will NOT be published.
$45 Billion? Great! Get Ready To Fund the Ukraine Again in FEBRUARY
(If You Liked “Paying People To Sit At Home” in 2020, You’ll LOVE Paying For It In The Ukraine in 2023)
As I said back in March, when only around $13 billion had been appropriated for the Ukraine……
…..the figure would be more like $80 billion or even closer to $100 billion, this calendar year.
Well, if they get around to approving the latest package ($45 billion) before year-end (as part of the annual military spending bill)…..
…..(UPDATE: I think they did)…..
…..then the calendar 2022 appropriated sum will be around $116 billion…..
…..(the first three tranches being $13, $43, $15 billion, if I’m not mistaken… I could be off by a couple)…..
Not bad for a guy who plays the Oracle part-time, and for free!
Of course, they’ll be back at it, soon enough.
In late October or early November, I told you that foreign direct budgetary support for the Ukraine would soon have to rise…..
…..from the recent $5 billion/month to $10 billion/month…..
…..as the economy goes into hibernation, due to destruction of the electrical transmission system.
For this reason among others, I said the new $50 billion the Senate Republicans were talking about at the time (turned out to be $45 billion, OK)…..
…..would not last beyond spring.
Well, since we know the world revolves around Dreizin…..
…..Perhaps it was due to my ridiculing their stated goal of…..
…..”$50 billion for ALL of 2023, one and done and forget it, we don’t want to hear about this any more from our constituents“…..
…..that they then “quietly”, suspiciously dropped and avoided ALL mention of any time horizon or expectation for the now-$45 billion.
Anyone else notice that?
Somehow, they got a tap on the shoulder, came around to reality.
I don’t pay to read the NY Times…..
…..but I’ve been told that this piece, from December 15th…..
…..acknowledges that the Ukraine now needs an extra $2 billion/month.
Folks, I told you, the Ukraine was getting $5 billion/month in direct budgetary support—i.e. money to their treasury—as of autumn…..
…..(I believe the $15 billion aid tranche in October or late September was all about that)…..
…..but it would soon need $10 billion/month… and it does.
Which means, the NY Times is still $3 billion/month short.
As I’ve said before, I’m ALWAYS weeks to months ahead of the MSM.
As of now, sure, the average Ukrainian household may get eight or ten hours of juice per day, usually unscheduled (that is, at random)…..
…..but (even with large enterprises getting first dibs) there’s not enough juice, with enough regularity, to run an economy.
In the last ten days, steelmaking and all metallurgy (one of the biggest foreign currency draws) has largely shut down.
Food processing is falling behind—bakeries and slaughterhouses can’t produce on any kind of schedule.
ATM machines don’t work most of the time.
It’s even worse than an Arab country during Ramadan. Nothing much is getting done.
And, there’s still at least a few big Russian strikes pending, sort of a “triple tap”, if you will.
By the end of this month, tax revenues are basically going to zero.
I mean, that should be obvious, when even the “tax office” people can’t get their work done.
Now, in theory, $7 billion/month would be enough…..
…..to cover the Ukraine’s approved 2023 central budget…..
…..which is supposed to run at an average of about $7 billion/month, at the current “official” exchange rate of 37 UAH to the dollar.
However, the Ukraine also has provincial budgets, which would normally (in peacetime) spend around $300 million/month, at the current exchange rate.
Also, with “no economy” (which was NOT planned in the 2023 budget, LOL)…..
…..The state will have to spend MUCH more than budgeted, on welfare, etc., just to keep people from rioting and looting and sabotaging everything.
(Of course, an actual “revolution” is out of the question. The state wouldn’t think twice about shooting, and there’s no opposition now, anyway.)
In the absence of incomes for most of the population…..
…..they’ll HAVE to come up with a scheme to “pay people to sit in their (dark and frozen) homes“… like the U.S. did in 2020.
And they’ll have to do it in January.
I mean, what else can they do?
Guys at “The Front” won’t be motivated to fight, if the family back home isn’t working, has no paycheck and no food (and only a few hours a day of light and heat.)
Lastly, with a foreign aid windfall of this sort, it’s likely that a large amount (in theory, based on “past practice”, up to one-third) will get stolen.
This is why I’ve said, the Ukraine needs $10 billion/month in direct budgetary support, surely as of January 1st.
The European Union has just approved an aid package that’s large enough to cover as much as $1.6 billion/month, on average, if used for direct budgetary support…..
…..although the European habit is to provide humanitarian and other specialized aid (but, we’ll see.)
Anything not offset by Europe, will be on Uncle Sam.
Even if Uncle Sam “only” has to cover $8.4 billion/month as of January, this alone (not counting weapons or anything else)…..
…..will eat away the $45 billion by June 2023.
HOWEVER, it turns out, only around $13.4 billion of the $45 billion is earmarked for economic aid.
What that means is…..
…..Congress will need to appropriate more money for the Ukraine…..
…..probably before the end of February.
Otherwise, the Ukraine will need to MASSIVELY crank up its “printing press”, and its currency will crash…..
…..worse than the 24% that it sank one day in late July. This would kill everybody over there.
Really, I don’t know what “con” our politicians think they’re pulling.
By now, the writing is so clearly on the wall, they MUST know the Ukraine needs MUCH more money.
It may be they mentally boxed themselves in to “not more than $50 billion” some time ago…..
…..and they figure they’ll deal with the rest as it comes.
Hopefully, the guy in the green sweater will come back again.
It was a real treat, to watch him before Congress in street clothes, boots, with his half-grown beard and sideburns.
Maybe they can roll out a piano for him, and he can do his old comedy routine…..
…..where he turns his back to the audience, drops his pants, and pretends to play with his dick.
Incidentally, here’s a sketch he did, acting like he just came back from Crimea (this was shortly after the Ukraine cut off water and power to Crimea in late 2014)…..
…..and marveling at a glass of water.
Now, his country has almost no power (and, you need power to clean and pump water.)
Karma’s a bitch, LOL.
In fairness to the audience, many of these people had nothing against Crimea (a popular tourist destination for Ukrainians) or even Russia, it was just dumb comedy.
But be careful what you laugh at, it may come back at you IN A VERY BAD WAY.
Also in the “karma’s a bitch” department…..
…..here’s (video below) President Poroshenko, speaking of the Donbass, in late 2014, or 2015:
(My translation, and the emphasis is mine.)
We will have work. They won’t. We will have pensions. They won’t. We will have social support for children and pensioners. They won’t. Our children will go to school or daycare. Theirs’ will be sheltering (from cannon fire) in cellars. Because they’re good for nothing. That’s how we will win this war.
Did I mention…..
…..karma is a bitch?
They Died For GloboHomo
Yes, this is what it looks like, a semi-trailer with bodies stacked at least three high, down its whole length.
Just one trailer, figured I’d give you a taste.
………but, but, but…..
…..according to unnamed Pentagon sources…..
…..and a Ukrainian named Yuri, quoted in the Wall Street Journal…..
…..Russia is running out of munitions!
Speaking of GloboHomo…..
Here’s the Secretary-General of NATO… LOL…..
Speaking of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ)…..
The Decisive Battle Of The Entire Ukraine War… And You Had No Idea
The WSJ has come out with a long, “investigative” piece about Putin’s detachment from reality.
He’s Hitler in the bunker, everyone tells him what he wants to hear, etc.
Of course, when you’re engineering a narrative based on unnamed “people who were there” and “a person with knowledge of the matter“…..
…..when any fool understands, NO ONE truly “in the know” in Russia, or any Russian with any real, current, relevant information, talks to ENEMY newsmen any more….
…..then you as the journo, should be self-aware enough to see, YOU are telling YOUR Hitler-in-the-bunker audience what THEY want/expect to hear.
Here’s the WSJ:
Russian troops were losing the battle for Lyman, a small city in eastern Ukraine, in late September, when a call came in for the commanding officer on the front line, over an encrypted line from Moscow.
It was Vladimir Putin, ordering them not to retreat.
The president seemed to have limited understanding of the reality of the situation, according to current and former U.S. and European officials and a former senior Russian intelligence officer briefed on the exchange. His poorly-equipped front-line troops were being encircled by a Ukrainian advance backed by artillery provided by the West. Mr. Putin rebuffed his own generals’ commands and told the troops to hold firm, they said.
The Ukrainian ambushes continued, and on Oct. 1, Russian soldiers hastily withdrew, leaving behind dozens of dead bodies and supplies of artillery to restock Ukraine’s weapons caches.
This is made-up.
Not saying they didn’t talk to “former officials“, but… those people made it up, too.
Everyone talking out of their butts. No clue, but saying what’s expected of them, need to stay relevant somehow.
The “reality of the situation“…..
…..is that Krasnyi Liman (renamed by the Maidan regime as “Liman”)…..
…..was the southern cornerstone of Russia’s DESPERATE attempt to form a defense line on the east bank of the Oskol River…..
…..without which, ALL Russian gains in north Lugansk…..
…..to include, ultimately, the hard-fought Severodonetsk-Lisichansk agglomeration, would have been LOST…..
…..and the entire Soledar-Bakhmut (Artemovsk) front, CUT OFF and LIQUIDATED…..
…..and several hundred additional miles of “mainland” Russian border, EXPOSED to Ukrainian raids and artillery…..
…..necessitating a total redirection of all Russian supply flows into Lugansk city and thereabouts…..
…..as well as a huge manpower commitment to guard the exposed border…..
For Russia, it would have been a CATASTROPHE.
Militarily and politically.
I can’t even speculate on the morale effect, it would have been so bad.
The garrison in Krasnyi Liman and surrounding towns…..
…..had to hold for as long as possible…..
…..regardless of casualties… which by the way, were in their favor (the Ukraine here suffered hundreds of KIA.)
You still think Vlad the Impaler had a “limited understanding of the reality of the situation“?
Perhaps it’s the WSJ and their “current and former officials” who have “limited understanding“?
…..the Russian defenders of the area around Krasnyi Liman—one reserve volunteer batallion and one military police batallion…..
…..later reinforced by a smattering of special forces and infantry, and supported by artillery from “over the horizon”…..
…..likely always less than 1000 soldiers on-site…..
…..with only rudimentary defensive positions, and no heavy equipment or materials to build more…..
…..held out against at first about 3000, later as many as 5000 Ukrainian army and militia….
…..for OVER THREE WEEKS.….
…..thereby allowing time for reserves to move in and dig in, to stabilize the disaster east of the Oskol…..
…..and to blunt the Ukraine’s advance in Belogorovka, just west of Lisichansk.
Krasnyi Liman is THE decisive battle of the war…..
…..marking the ULTIMATE FAILURE of the Ukraine’s efforts to counterattack and essentially knock Russia out of the contest.
The Ukraine had ONE CHANCE, one chance only, to take down the Man.
They can’t win a war of attrition.
After Krasnyi Liman, there’s no hope for them.
You know the saying, “For want of a nail, the kingdom was lost.“
Krasnyi Liman was the nail… and Russia held on to it.
Now, I don’t know about Putin’s management style…..
…..but the WSJ peddles fantasy.
The WSJ is a joke.
Also a joke, are alt-commentators such as Larry Johnson, and the “New Atlas” guy on YouTube (and their idiot groupies)…..
…..who either dismissed or denied the severity of the situation for Russia…..
…..or denied the situation itself, like nothing much was happening.
At the time, I told Larry he’s become unreadable.
He responded that he has big experience in military planning (as a CIA analyst, LOL, OK), and thus, he can’t be wrong that Russia’s “retreat” was planned long in advance, and totally inconsequential.
Jeeezzusss what an idiot.
Like Mexico, the CIA doesn’t always send their best.
CDC Acknowledges Vakkseen Side Effects
They finally came clean…..
“…will respond with immediate homicidal aggression“?
Sounds like your Democrat relatives at the Thanksgiving / Christmas dinner table!
Don’t get bit!
The Greatest Masochist Of All Time
If you didn’t know, Trump has come out STRONGLY for Kevin “deer in the headlights” McCarthy…..
…..(kneecapping his own biggest fans and allies in Congress)…..
…..and avoided endorsing Harmeet Dillon to chair the RNC.
“4D chess”, for sure.
As usual, we see Trump hedging his bets with the GOP establishment.
Like, “Maybe, maybe, finally, somehow, they will like me???”
And, again we see him undercutting allies or like minds at the worst possible time, as he tends to do…..
…..such as when he famously, suddenly, backed down from endorsing—and instead, criticized—Governor Kemp’s (brave and successful), first-in-the-country, partial “reopening” of Georgia in late April 2020.
(And then Kemp owed him something in November? LOL.)
Just like he disappeared on the “January 6th” prisoners for well over a year…..
…..saying nothing, and not paying their legals bills or aiding their families…..
…..because, God forbid, the MSM might say something.
Obviously, Trump talks a lot of shit, but like all narcissist bullies, he’s a big pussy.
(I don’t care about his real estate career, I don’t believe he ever “took on” the mafia or union bosses or anyone his suckers think he did. He probably just paid everyone off.)
LOL, this guy is supposed to come back in 2024 and “finally clean out the Deep State“?
It would be just more of the same.
Old dogs don’t change their tricks.
He’d probably try to win the Deep State over again… like DeSantis is now trying to do by smack-talking Putin, all of a sudden. (I get it, no one wants their campaign spied on.)
All the ever-Trumpers (including Bannon) are now DAZED AND CONFUSED.
All they can say is, “He’s got bad people around him, needs to fire everyone.”
Look, if it’s almost 2023 and he’s STILL got bad people around him like it’s 2017…..
…..the “bad people” is Trump. Duh!
I used to like some of the “alt right” stars, but now I realize, those who have not gotten off the bus already, are just clowns and windbags selling T-shirts or endorsement time.
They are False Messengers of a False Prophet, keeping people hooked on the drug of a Lost Cause.
Among the smartest on the “fighting right” (i.e. those who never cared too much about his “mean tweets”, etc.)…..
…..was Anne Coulter, who realized what a PHONY he was, early in his presidency.
Because, when you’re a revolutionary, you must have your shit together, you must be daring and move FAST…..
…..and get meaningful, real results (whether it’s your campaign platform or something else) FAST.
Use your first days and months to get ahead of the system, get ahead of the opposition that will never accept you anyway, change the rules, break some eggs, show people you’re not afraid and you can get BIG things done YOUR way.
(I don’t mean just fucking over some poor immigrant returning on a flight from the UK, who steps off the plane at JFK to find their visa cancelled, if you remember that one.)
If they take you to court on 50 different counts, fine, deal with it as it comes. As we saw in 2020, the courts can only handle so much.
Otherwise… you’re just Kerensky.
As for another “ensky“…..
When Zelensky was elected in the Ukraine in 2019, with over 70 percent of the vote…..
…..and with a parliamentary supermajority…..
…..on a vague promise to end the Donbass war…..
…..I knew he had about six weeks to cut a deal with Russia, against the wishes of his own military, his own fascists…..
…..and the U.S. State Department (which OPENLY OPPOSED his election, imagine that?)…..
…..before getting ROLLED by everybody.
Well, he did NOTHING and got ROLLED.
It was obvious, when he famously visited a trench and whined to an unhappy soldier, “I’m not a punk, I’m 45 years old, I’m the president of Ukraine.”
And we see the results.
Trump can’t do it.
I understand people such as the Dreizin Report’s other half (my trusty webmaster / video editor)…..
…..who figures it’s crap BUT what are the options?
OK, but anyone who thinks “Round 2 is gonna be great, I can’t wait!“, is a fucking idiot.
We shouldn’t even need round 2, I don’t think the Federal government will matter much, shortly…..
Variant X: “Preliminary Numbers”
Note: Anyone can stop reading, or (if on my mailing list) unsubscribe at any time. If you’re emotional or easily disturbed, please close your Internet browser, NOW, and do something else with your time. If you keep reading, it’s on you, please don’t send me the bill for your therapist or anti-anxiety prescription. Again, you’ve been warned.
IMHO, everyone who missed out on the Original Hardcore 2020 Korona…..
…..and then got mRNA (Pfye-zzer or Moh-derrna) double-vakksed-and-boosstted…..
…..is LIKELY TO DIE OR BECOME SERIOUSLY DEBILITATED by Variant X…..
…..(which could, in fact, be a “wave” of variants that washes over like a tsunami swirling around the shore, for a year or more. It could even be a double-wammy of korona AND bird flu… a real nightmare, but with immune systems as shot as they are, anything’s possible now.)
This includes children. Again, anyone whom I’ve described above.
This puts around 55% of the U.S. population at GREAT RISK.
(Sadly, some readers have problems with reading comprehension and information retention. I know some will throw this back at me like, “But Dreizin, you said 55% of Americans will die.” Of course, I didn’t say that. But, 55% should be VERY concerned… and for God’s sake, stop boossting!)
However, the risk is not evenly distributed…..
…..and is UP TO TWICE as great in the blue-est blue states (and DC), relative to the reddest red states.
Of course, there is HUGE, rural vs. urban variation within blue (and red) states as well.
It doesn’t take an astrophysicist to see, if we make it through as one country, not only our economy, but our politics, will look VERY different.
As for avoiding the thing…..
NO ONE will avoid the hyper-contagion that’s coming.
I don’t expect famine, BUT…..
…..You’ll have to get up, get out, and stand in a long, sick, coughing line somewhere (hopefully nothing more exotic than a supermarket checkout) for food.
I can do that and not worry, because I’m not in the “risk” group.
What about you?
If you think you’ll just be working from home…..
…..and then Amazon Fresh comes to your porch every three days…..
Things still “worked” pretty well, the last go-round.
Next time, not so much.
Of course, when you have people just struggling for the basics, it will be horrendous for labor productivity, but… who cares?
We’ll be in a borderline hyperinflationary situation, anyway…..
…..as the Feds again go “full stimulus”, while this time only the barest, life-essential staple goods will be available.
As for what you can do, today…..
I’ve mentioned in several videos, if there’s any “non-perishable” medicines (or other complex or “rare” goods) you need, do what you can to stock up, now.
Get everything fixed around the house, don’t put it off.
If your shoes are wearing out, don’t just buy new shoes, buy two or three pairs to last you a few years.
If you’ve got people in your household who are growing, buy some clothes and shoes they can grow into.
Worst case, I’m wrong and you have all the meds you need for a while… and your house is in tiptop, sellable condition… and you’ve got some shoes… and your kids end up wearing last year’s style.
At least I’m not Jim Cramer, telling you to buy some stupid stock.
“I checked Dreizin for investment advice, all he told me was go buy some extra shoes.” LOL.
Folks, Rumble is degrading.
They still host videos, but they’ve arbitrarily STOPPED sending out email notices of new videos.
(It used to take them up to three days to send a notice; now they’ve stopped entirely.)
I suppose if you have the app, you’ll still get a pop-up or something.
But email, forget it.
If you’re signed up to my Rumble, you’ll never know I put up a new video, unless you check my page.
What’s the impact on me?
My Rumble views and engagement have fallen by HALF.
Am I pissed off? Yes. Am I going back to YouTube? No.
I’ll just have to live with it.
Problem is, there’s thousands of people who ONLY follow me on Rumble, who REFUSE to read this blog (where I cross-post all my videos) because they refuse to read, period.
You know, the “I’m visual” types. Oh, well. Their loss.
I’m closing my GETTR account.
It only has about 600 followers, and engagement is ZERO.
It’s not even worth taking a minute to post my blog links there (can’t automate it as with Twitter.)
If you’re one of the very few who actually follows me on GETTR, please instead find me on Twitter, @dreizinreport
A kind gentleman in Australia volunteered to make me a new logo.
I said, OK, make it relevant to what I write and talk about.
(The one I’ve got now, I like the red and blue colors, but, it doesn’t really “say” anything.)
Folks, please see below and, in the comments, let me know what you think, both versions.
Do you get it, do you feel it? Or not?
I hesitate to burden my webmaster with swapping out logos on this site and all my other channels, if people don’t get it.
With the colors reversed…..
Because I really need the feedback, sorry but NO COMMENT WILL BE PUBLISHED under this post, that does not include your thoughts on this.
In Latin, omnibus is the plural form, dative and ablative cases of omnis (all, everything)
In U.S. Federal legislative language, it means a really big piece of legislation, encompassing diverse categories of spending.
A few days ago, Congress passed a $1.7 trillion omnibus bill…..
…..representing most of the “discretionary” portion of the regular Federal budget (less than half of the total regular budget, not counting any “extrabudgetary” stimulus or policy spending.)
Millions of Republicans/conservatives got real upset…..
…..that 21 Senate RINOS voted for something so full of “pork”…..
…..to include a new Federal building, supposedly to be named after Nancy Pelosi.
Yes, RINO’s are crap, but…..
IMHO, this is just the daily “here’s what you should be mad about” bullshit.
Even including the Ukraine stuff, there’s probably well, well under $100 billion of true waste or special interest giveaways in this bill.
The rest, over 94 percent, is to keep Uncle Sam’s lights on, pay the military, keep VA hospitals open, fund special ed programs at rural schools, etc.
But let’s just say, $100 billion of waste.
Well now, you see…..
They already approved TRILLIONS of dollars of extrabudgetary waste, in 2020 and 2021, and HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS more, earlier this year.
All of it deficit-financed, mostly via “Monopoly money” from the Federal Reserve.
Which gave us a wave of inflation like we hadn’t seen in 40 years.
And then the Ukraine already got about $71 billion, prior to this.
What’s another $100 billion???
What, Kardashian didn’t put more botox in her ass today?
Nothing else to talk about?
Look, the system is fucked. It will come down when it comes down.
The trick is to free your mind, not to invest mentally in bullshit.
Then, you’ll be better suited to prepare for it all coming down.
That’s all I have to say about that.
Sorry To All The “War Will Go On For Years” Fools:
Russia Has Mobilized & Still Has Huge Untapped Potential.
The Ukraine Is Already Near Spent.
Unlike some guys who only got into this in February…..
…..(Scott Ritter has turned out pretty well, but he doesn’t have the background)…..
I’ve been studying the Ukraine situation intensively since 2013…..
…..and am, hands down, the USA’s most competent “public” expert on it. (I can’t speak for the CIA, etc.)
So, I don’t just talk out of my butt.
When I tell you that Russia as of late summer had only about 150,000 personnel “in theater”…..
…..INCLUDING Donetsk and Lugansk forces and all volunteers, that’s a fact.
I’m also a history nut.
Every “total war” (of the sort being waged by the Ukraine today) relies on mass mobilization of a surplus male population.
What are the Ukraine’s prospects?
In about early February…..
…..I told my mailing list (before this blog—but might be in the archives) that talk of the Ukraine raising a 500,000-strong guerilla army to fight Russia…..
…..(this was back when Uncle Sam and many others, thought Russia would waltz in and take the place quickly)…..
The 500,000 figure originated with the Brookings Institution (the top Democrat thinktank), and was picked up by some media outlets.
I said it was fantasy to think that with its army destroyed, the country could produce that many guerilla fighters who’d be motivated despite no benefits, no guarantees, nothing.
That’s just not “modern man”, sorry.
(There weren’t even half a million partisans at one time on the territory of the Ukraine SSR in World War 2, Jeez Louise. You just can’t fit that many guerillas on this territory.)
Back then, I said the Ukraine can’t produce that many motivated personnel.
Today, the Ukraine Armed Forces have as few as 198,000 men in uniform, including all training cadre and command staff.
Perhaps (a wild guess) about half of these are draftees or mobilized reservists.
There are roughly another 200,000 in the territorial militia, not all of whom are deployed at any given time.
There are also some (not many) thousands still left in the battered National Guard under the Interior Ministry (home of the Azov.)
There are some (not many) thousands in the border guard, but these are mostly watching the northern and western borders for draft dodgers, not (yet) in the fight.
Lastly, there are still perhaps over 3000 foreign volunteers…..
…..to include an organized, “ex” (nudge, nudge, wink, wink) Polish army force manning tens of Polish-donated self-propelled guns and performing other specialized functions in certain key sectors.
The total figure of 700,000 that’s been claimed, is nonsense.
They may be including well over 100,000 regular police (plus their civilian staff) as well as all Ukraine Security Service (political police) personnel, and even civilian staff of the Interior Ministry…..
…..but even then, it’s inflated.
As you can see, the Ukraine has MASSIVELY mobilized…..
…..and STILL doesn’t have much more than 400,000 men in the force, including all territorial militiamen (mostly guys in their mid-30s to mid-50s, with light weapons and only minimal training.)
In fact, since the Russian mobilization (which began in late September)…..
The Ukraine has only, to my knowledge, levied (get ready to be UNDERwhelmed)…..
…..one new brigade (likely not at full-strength, probably more for “show” than anything) and five independent battalions.
Sorry, this is NOT serious.
They just don’t have the men available.
This month, we’ve seen the Ukraine’s top general, Zaluzhny, while begging for more weapons from the Economist magazine…..
…..telling the Economist that he doesn’t need any more men (who doesn’t need more men???)…..
…..and then, the head of the ground forces command staff’s manpower directorate, Roman Gorbach, said no new mobilization is planned for 2023.
(This is typical government double-talk, as draft board appearance notices are being handed out randomly right now, in all large cities at a minimum. What they’re likely trying to do is tamp down “foreign benefactor” expectations that the army can actually expand. That is, the draftees are just replacing existing casualties.)
Now, who fights a Total War for National Survival, but at the same time…..
…..gives up on trying to expand the size of the force???
Clearly, they understand they are running up on empty.
Keep in mind, they can’t draft everyone.
They still need police and state security men…..
…..and utilities, railroad, and port workers, who are all protected from the draft/call-up by their quasi-state or large and well-connected employers…..
…..and private security, chauffeurs, handymen, etc. for the rich (likewise protected)…..
…..and farmers and agri-techs to work the grain export economy (likewise in many cases.)
They also have MANY civilian hands tied up in the military industries and repair yards (however those might be functioning now, with the power shortage.)
And of course, in hospitals and therapy clinics, tending to the tens of thousands of wounded and recovering.
The manpower problems are manifold.
Most “rich kids” have bought themselves a medical exemption, or a pass out of the country.
It’s likely, several hundred thousand urban “not so rich” kids (including tens of thousands of “MIA” deserters), are hiding out with family in the villages, typically far from any draft office.
(You “could” send in press gangs to find them, but that itself would take A LOT of manpower, and time.)
Many thousands of young men have fled to Russian-controlled territory.
By my estimates, around 57,300 Ukrainian personnel are dead, permanently “invalided out” or pending such, or being held prisoner in Donetsk or “mainland” Russia.
And, of course, Crimea and the most settled parts of Donetsk and Lugansk, have been in the Russian column since 2014, not a source of manpower for the Ukraine.
HOWEVER, as I mentioned in a recent post…..
…..The biggest “numbers” problem, is that 1.5 to 2.0 million males (3.0 to 4.0 million total citizens of all ages) left the country “permanently” for Europe after the 2014 coup, up through around 2020.
(Statistics are complicated, as the Ukraine’s government only ever estimated those who worked abroad on a “permanent basis” (whatever that means; their figure was 3.2 million as of late 2019, evidently not counting those working in Russia, and it’s not clear how many were abroad before 2014, other sources claiming the pre-2014 group was about 1.2 million); while host countries such as Poland gave higher figures for all Ukrainians who simply worked on their territory at any given time (2 million in Poland alone in late 2018, up from almost nothing before 2014); while the EU gives the number of Ukrainians (including non-working minors and other dependents) with a valid residence permit living in any given EU country, this category being up to three times lower than the real number of Ukrainians located in a given EU country, most of them on current work visas or even staying illegally (total of “valid residence permit holders” from the Ukraine across the EU was only 1.57 million at the end of 2021.) Fact is, many Ukrainians were on work visas, and most of those (to remain “legal”) would’ve had to come back to Ukraine periodically to renew their visas, although since the Russian invasion, they can just stay on indefinitely as refugees, “no problem.” It’s likely the number of Ukrainian citizens who left the country “for the west” since 2014, with the subjective expectation of seeking permanent residency, or at least, long-term employment/living arrangements (i.e. more than just one season/year of work), and remained there as of this year, was up to 2.0 million of both sexes and all ages going to Poland, up to 700,000 to Italy, up to 600,000 to Czechia, up to several hundred thousand to each of Spain and Germany, and several hundred thousand to all other EU countries. These are reasonable “outside” estimates, but we can say FOR SURE that at least 3.0 million Ukrainian citizens left for Europe since 2014, were still in Europe as of the Russian invasion, and were/are in no hurry to come back for good.
About another three million citizens of all ages (let’s say, 1.5 million males)…..
…..left for Russia…..
…..and stayed there (another two-plus million came to Russia but returned to the Ukraine.)
Most of these were/are labor migrants (i.e. mostly young or young-ish) and thus, reflected in Russia’s border-crossing stats but NOT permanent immigration figures.
(These 3.0 million were disproportionately, up to one-third, from Russian-controlled areas of Donetsk/Lugansk, but that still leaves 2.0 million from other parts of the Ukraine.)
At the time of their emigration, most of the men (who moved to the EU, or to Russia)…..
…..were aged 18 to early 30s.
In other words, many would be of “prime military age” even today.
Why did they leave?
Because they were a surplus population…..
…..like guys from Honduras or Guatemala who make their way to the USA.
There were no jobs for most of them.
(Even for the “specialists”, there were jobs but the pay was horrific.)
Why were there no jobs?
After the 2014 coup…..
…..the Ukraine and Russia severed economic ties…..
…..leading to a shutdown of high value-added manufacturing that had been geared to the Russian market.
(This included the death or hibernation of Soviet-origin, national “flagships” such as the Yuzhmash space rocket and engine plant in Dnepropetrovsk, which had employed tens of thousands, as well as the Nikolaev shipyard, and the Motor Sich helicopter engine plant in Zaporozhie. Also, whatever was left of the Antonov concern in the Kiev area. Just to name the biggest and best-known.)
Granted, some of these (and other) factories were PARTIALLY converted (on a small scale) to produce lower-end military hardware, which the state bought with American money.
But it wasn’t REMOTELY enough.
On top of that, MANY other industries (e.g., electromechanical parts and instruments, building materials, processed foods, etc.) lost their Russian market…..
…..and guess what, their stuff was NOT wanted in Europe, LOL.
Many of these enterprises may have survived, but they must have shrunk.
As the higher-value-added industries and all other exports to Russia shut down…..
…..the knock-on effects must have been felt in other sectors (e.g., services, construction), pulling down everything.
The city of Kiev did pretty well, regardless.
(America’s capital also does OK during recessions, LOL. Frankly, most of Kiev and suburbs looks as nice or nicer than almost any place in the USA, while most Ukrainian workers earn not more than $400/month. Something seriously fucking wrong there. Moscow and Russia are not hugely different, BTW.)
But overall, the economy shrank by about HALF.
(“Per capita” GDP did not shrink by half, simply because so many people left the country (between the 2014 loss of territories, male and female emigration in 2014-2021, and natural decline, the Ukraine lost at the very least, twelve million residents.))
The country became a ward of the Washington, DC-based International Monetary Fund (IMF), borrowing and rolling over several billion dollars each year, with no prospects for ever repaying.
So, we have at least 5.0 million (excluding those from Russian-controlled areas) Ukrainian citizens or former citizens…..
…..tending towards the younger side, of course, not exclusively but nonetheless…..
…..who left since 2014, and have been living in Russia, Poland, Italy, Czechia, Germany, Spain, Hungary, Slovakia, Portugal, UK, etc., most of them for at least a few years already.
(This does NOT include the 2022 wartime refugees.)
About half of these are male.
Of the males who left (including boys who came with their parents)…..
…..today, certainly at least 40 percent would be ages 20 to 35.
That’s at least ONE MILLION, not rich (not of the “draft exemption” class), “prime military-age” males…..
…..who are NOT needed to keep the Ukraine barely running (because they’re not there, and it’s still running)…..
…..In other words, well over one million SURPLUS males of “prime military age”…..
…..Who are NOT there, and thus, NOT available for military service.
Now, I think I wrote in early February, these guys will have NO INTEREST in coming back to fight Russia…..
…..and that’s EXACTLY how it’s played out.
In close to ten months of following this war intensively…..
…..I’ve yet to come across A SINGLE CASE of a Ukrainian long-term emigrant, actually returning and serving in the forces.
I mean, there’s Sanchez dos Vasquez de la Guerrero Loco wackjobs coming from Brazil and Columbia, trying their luck as war tourists…..
…..but NOT Ukrainian citizens living in Poland, Italy, etc.
Of course, I’m sure it’s happened, I’m sure every proud Ukrainian expat “knows someone who knows someone“…..
…..but it’s EXTREMELY RARE.
(In the last days of February and first days of March, U.S. and UK media put out a few pieces on guys who were headed back, or who had heard of someone who was maybe headed back… and on March 7th, 11 days into the war, the Ukraine’s defense minister said 66,224 men had returned specifically to fight Russia (in 11 days, LOL, must’ve pulled it out of his ass)… and that’s THE LAST you ever heard of that, case closed, end of story, they DO NOT talk about it anymore, literally not one story about it, NOT ONE GUY NAMED in over 9 months.)
(You know, there’s a reason why most Ukrainian rah-rah rallies that we’ve seen in Germany, Poland, and many other European countries this year, were attended mostly by women (and their preteen kids) and soyboy-looking 18 or 20 year old males. These are the 2022 refugees, who are mostly women and children and rich young draft dodgers, as males without cash have NOT been let out of the country since the Russian invasion. These people are NOT the emigrants of 2014-2021. Most of the latter, HAD TO LEAVE THE UKRAINE to survive and perhaps send money home to their families, many of them are done with it, and some couldn’t give a crap about the country today, they have new lives where they are.
This is a HUGE problem, because when you’re fighting a Total War…..
…..with Mass Mobilization…..
…..Well, what’s the essential ingredient, besides having enough guns, bullets, boots, and fuel available?
That’s right, you need a SURPLUS (MALE) POPULATION.
That is, healthy, young or young-ish men…..
…..who are not in “essential jobs”, who don’t have large or well-connected employers who can protect them from conscription…..
…..and who can’t afford to bribe their own way out of army service (that is, not on a Ukrainian income, if they had stuck around.)
Unless you start drafting 15, 16, 17 year-old boys who haven’t finished school…..
…..this surplus population DOES NOT EXIST in today’s Ukraine.
Now, this is not to say they can’t find some more thousands of guys to draft off the streets.
But that’s just to cover their existing losses, NOT to expand the force.
They are close enough to being tapped out…
…..even as Russia moves up to 9000 “fresh” men into the combat zone (or to the Belarus border) every week, from its 300,000 mobilization pool.
Oh, by the way…..
Of around 1000 Ukrainian military/militia obituaries and “in memoriams” published online from December 15th through the 22nd…..
…..The average age of the deceased, as far as can be ascertained…..
This is in line with the nationwide opinion survey I highlighted just before the Russian invasion…..
…..showing that the “college age” crowd was the LEAST likely to want to defend the state.
(In fact, just over half were not even willing to peacefully protest a Russian military presence in their own town.)
And, it further demonstrates that under-40 demographics are disproportionately either “hiding”, or OUT OF THE COUNTRY.
Everything I said, has come to pass.
I’d venture the Ukraine has ALREADY hit the limit of its “motivated” manpower…..
…..that is, true believers who love the Ukraine so much, they’d willingly risk getting their ass blown off for it.
Again, “modern man”, right?
Many guys talk shit, not many actually do shit.
From here on, they can scrape the bucket, and draft up some more meat…..
…..but how much of that meat, won’t surrender at the first opportunity?
But, hey, why listen to Dreizin? Take it from their top general.
They’re in deep shit, he says things are desperate, but…..
He also says they don’t “need” any more men. LOL.
BTW… Why am I capable of writing about this? Because, as I’ve said, I’ve been on this case for nine years… and also because, I’ve studied military manpower and mobilization, dating back to early Roman times. (Also saw it from the inside, FWIW.) How many “military affairs” journos know what the fuck they are ever writing about?
More Robot Poetry
Last time, I promised you more ChatGPT (AI chatbot) generated crap-poetry.
Here it is.
This stuff is just, wow. It’s not poetry but it’s damn interesting.
Hey, who needs Run-DMC…..
…..when you’ve got artificial intelligence?
Merry Pagan-mas From Your Skinhead Friends In the Ukraine
Looks like the Uruk-hai are ready to move on Helms’ Deep.
Actually, this is a Viking funeral… sort of.
It’s a memorial service for all their dead homies.
There’s no body in the burning ship, it’s just symbolic.
(Watch BOTH videos. In video two, at 0:06 to 0:11, there’s evidently an American delegation, with tens of U.S. flags. Where is the FBI? All the “supremists” are right here! Hahahah. Creepy as fuck!!!)
(Second video below.)
Regarding the flags…..
I’m guessing this is the Azov’s new symbol, after they woke up to modern PR…..
…..and dropped their 2nd SS Panzer Division – Das Reich patch, some months ago.
(This assumes the videos are from just the last few days. They could be from a prior year, I don’t know. But I’m not familiar with that flag.)
Still No Nazis In the Ukraine
I looked real hard but still couldn’t find any, LOL.
Perhaps I should make this a regular feature, there’s just so much material.
The “Einsatzgruppen” were the SS extermination companies…..
…..which roamed the occupied USSR, wasting Jewish communities.
Someone forgot to tell these Swastika guys…..
They have a “Jewish” president…..
…..whom they didn’t vote for.
(PS: The word above the Swastika is spelled in Russian, not Ukrainian. This is Kharkov (a Russian-speaking city)… presumably before the electricity problems.)
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