Holy moly. This is moving fast.
To avoid writing a “blank check” to the Ukraine after their pending, presumed (but who knows?) takeover of the U.S. House… Republicans are looking to write that check RIGHT NOW!!!
They are working with Democrats to appropriate an additional $50 billion for Ukraine aid, to last through “all of 2023″…..
OR… SO… THEY… THINK!!!
(If they get this passed before year-end, then calendar-year 2022 appropriations for the Ukraine will be well in excess of $100 billion, even more than I predicted this past March/April.)
Folks, that $50 billion won’t last beyond April 2023.
As I wrote in my last piece, the Ukraine needs roughly $20 billion of air defenses RIGHT NOW.
Uncle Sam has been hemming and hawing on that count (this stuff is expensive, precious), but—my guess—he will cave and cough up the hardware.
(What would happen, $20 billion from Congress would be used to order new gear, to replace what’s being sent to the Ukraine from U.S. military stocks.)
Also, with its economy and tax receipts soon to be totally shut down by Russia’s “finally took off the gloves” dismantling of its electrical distribution infrastructure…..
…..the Ukraine will need Uncle Sam to cover 100 percent of its spending, that is, $10 billion per month…..
…..rather than the $5 billion or so that Uncle picks up today.
This $10 billion/month requirement will be effective likely as of December.
(At the current rate of degradation, the Ukraine’s energy grid will more-or-less fall apart by mid-November at the latest. Read my last piece to see what that means for their economy.)
Furthermore, as the Ukraine gets progressively wrecked over the winter and thereafter, the military aid focus will have to shift…..
…..to training a guerilla army, which will involve housing Ukrainian personnel (in Poland, Czechia, wherever) for MUCH longer than the existing three-week training stints employed to date.
It would be more like an army-in-exile… like the “Bay of Pigs” fools… but 20-plus times bigger. This will cost enormously more than what’s been spent on training to date.
The “skim” by contractors will reach Afghanistan levels, that’s just how the war machine does business. American war is a business.
I could go on.
Look here, the $50 billion (if that’s what it is) WILL MORE-OR-LESS RUN OUT BY MID-APRIL.
That is, by that time, there may be a few billion dollars left in the pot…..
…..but our leaders will already be looking at appropriating the “next installment.”
Folks, as I hinted at in my last piece (if it wasn’t clear enough, here it is in plainer language)…..
For as long as the USA is fighting Russia by proxy, using the Ukraine…..
…..there is NO LIMIT to the cost.
There will be NO LIMIT to the cost.
It is IMPOSSIBLE TO LIMIT the cost.
We are in it to win it, full stop….
…..and no politician (in any position of leadership or authority) will DARE stand in the way.
Because, as I covered profusely in the first months of this year, at stake is U.S. hegemony over Europe…..
….. which is the foundation, cornerstones, keystone, and capstone of the American Empire project…..
…..and there is NOTHING that won’t be sacrificed, if it needs to be sacrificed.
Thus, all the vacillating, marginal GOP congresspersons who are now like, “I love Ukraine, but you know, my constituents…. our national debt is $31 trillion… blah blah…..”
…..can SHUT THE FUCK UP!!!
These fools all helped start this thing (even Marjorie Taylor Greene initially cheered for the Ukraine)…..
…..and now it’s too lucrative and too entrenched, and like a freight train going downhill with no brakes.
I warned them.
For THREE MONTHS before the Russian invasion, before this blog (but check the archives)…..
…..I told my Republican VIP mailing list (thousands of names, including hundreds of Capitol Hill staff), “don’t cheer too hard for what’s coming“…..
…..because the weathervane will turn, and YOU WILL BE STUCK WITH IT.
It’s too bad, politicians can’t see beyond their talking points. Six, twelve months out? Forget it.
Again, shut up!!!
If we don’t get hit with an asteroid, or Variant X doesn’t get in the way…..
…..the USA will spend hundreds of billions of dollars on the Ukraine.
And “they” all know it! I can’t believe they are so dumb, not to know. They’re just stringing it out in installments.
If they admitted they know this installment or the next one, won’t be enough…..
…..well, they won’t admit it!
Aaaaand a few more words on “Tulsi”
It’s come to my attention that “Tulsi” has been brought into the MAGA fold.
She is campaigning for some Trump-endorsed candidate in Arizona.
Look here, this woman endorsed Brandon (and thus also his running mate Kambodia), and voted to impeach Trump not once but twice.
She has her bland—not well-informed, she’s too lazy for details, she’s no Ron Paul or Matt Gaetz or Dennis Kucinich, obviously no Chomsky—antiwar shtick…..
…..but otherwise, she was a near-100 percent party line Democrat, her entire time in Washington.
Now, all of a sudden, after being unemployed for 20 months, and one month before the midterms, she has her “I’m leaving the Democrat party” epiphany…..
…..and her fanboys on this blog are leaving comments like “Trump/Tulsi 2024” or “DeSantis/Tulsi 2024.”
What a bunch of goddamn retards.
And… what is the MAGA network thinking?
It was bad enough we had to put up with Jared, Omarosa, “Mooch”, and that entire shitshow. They haven’t learned anything. Now we’ve got this Dr. Oz guy. It never stops.
As we saw with Omarosa, Mooch, and others… You bring in wandering homeless opportunists, even known traitors and backstabbers… and you get stabbed in the back.
Wow, who could have imagined?
It took Mike Pence four years to become the Mike Pence we know today. Four years of unquestioning, straight-faced loyalty, ain’t so bad in Trumpland.
Until he was really tested, he was OK. You know, he looked great on TV.
Given any opening at all, this woman would become the next Mike Pence in two seconds.
Some people are so… damn… dumb.
Mortgage Market Going Nuts
I’ve never seen this before. I’ve never had a problem with googling “30 year mortgage rates” and finding today’s rates.
Then, on Thursday, October 20th, this:
I called my mortgage banker, he confirmed my suspicion that the rate setters just can’t keep up!
The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has spiked well above four percent, it’s too volatile, no one knows anything anymore.
In unrelated (or related???) news, the Japanese Yen is now over 150 to the dollar, having lost almost six percent in just the last 30 days or so, and over 30 percent in the last eight months.
This is insane. “Developed country” currencies are not supposed to move this much, this fast.
It’s even worse than it looks, because, the way finance works nowadays, you don’t know what’s under the surface.
Something pops, and it breaks something else, and so on…
I really feel that something, somewhere, is going to break, next month. Certainly by year-end, but more likely in November.
That’s my strong hunch, anyway.
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I subscribe to Mortgage News Daily, since I bought my house about 8 years ago. Strangely, the “daily” didn’t arrive this past Friday. You can go to their website and they have a banner with the best rates. Looking pretty dismal. Who the hell is gonna buy a house at 7.32%? (or worse!)
Desantis/Lake ticket sounds good to me! Trump should play chairman of the board and be head of the RNC Make a sacrifice for the team Donald !
OK, I’ll take it. Sounds good.
Hi Jacob. I appreciate your consistency with the definite article in front of Украина. You are probably the only one out there even in the alt space who sticks to this seemingly unimportant semantic nuance. As you, and some in your audience, probably know that the RuSHans and the UkRaYnians make a big deal out of ‘в’ [in] or ‘на’ [@] UKRAYINA. ‘In’ is adamantly preferred on the right side of the [Днепр/Dnieper] sort of hints at a landlocked prospective. Anyway, interestingly enough in my opinion the English speaking world seems to have dropped da ‘THE’ … and I wonder why. The Netherlands don’t mind that. And one can see where a commentator stands on UA right away if [‘the’] is frequent. The Duran chose mainstream btw … and at one point the oracle of london even attempted to go with ‘Turkiye’ or whatever the ottomans want to be called now .. the lawyer in him. Sorry to have deviated from the blank check…
“.the USA will spend hundreds of billions of dollars on the Ukraine.”
From Russia’s standpoint, is this bad?
“Kambodia”
LOL.
This is the blog I wish I’d learned to write.
Kambodia a great name LOL
About your hunch relayed to something about to break in November you are correct. The FED just doubled up margin requirements for credit and other swaps used by Banks to edge their derivative positions. This suggests the mother of all liquidity crises is at the door involving the precious and “too big to fall” financial sector. There are 100 trillion at least in this positions and nobody knows who is at the other side of the swaps. Perfect storm in the horizon: Deutsche Bank and Credit Swiss going under, gigantic offensive by Russia to start immediately after the planned Kharkive Ukraine offensive including the occupation and destruction of ALL Ukraine, a 60% possibility of Nato (Brits defense minister just flew to Washington in a hurry to coordinate) using a tactical nuke out of hysteria about losing the war that will assure the destruction of Europe, and the cherry on top of the cake: the collapse of Europe into the dark ages again this coming winter.
Read these spending bills, most of the money isn’t going to Ukraine. Congress is laundering defense spending through the war in order expedite force modernization. Out dated equipment goes to Ukraine, funding to purchase new equipment goes to the Army. The largest line item in the last big bill was O&M… no strings. The government is preparing for industrial warfare.
I’m not sure it was necessary, but thanks for more or less re-stating what I wrote. However, as I also hinted at, the economic/budget situation in the Ukraine may change up the pattern somewhat.
Perhaps these two independent subjects are intrinsically tied together? If something big breaks in the financials no more aid to Ukraine without firing up a shitstorm. A spending package in a Lame Duck Congress should stir the sheep plenty enough already. Doing it after the economy goes boom ought to really throw gas on the fire.
According to the daily newspaper Jutarni List, the Croatian Prime Minister yesterday is taking a position opposing a NATO plan to place 15,000 Ukie soldiers for “training” in Croatia. Milanović said that Croatia doesn’t want to get anymore involved in the war. 15,000….
Milanovic has nothing to lose. His party (social democrats) is not in power, so he fucks around with the Eurocrat conservative administration. Why? Because he is bored, because he is paid or because he really means it. The question is if he would do the same if his own party would be in power. Because it doesn’t matter which party “rules” there, the Ukraine policy would be the same. Croatia is even more a Pudel than Germany and the population number suggests its importance to world politics, 4 million people. The only “real” country in Europe is Hungary, everything else is pretty much Walking Dead.
Thanks, Mr. Dreizin. I always enjoy your reports. I would argue, however, that a Variant X that comes out of a bioweapons project is not a Variant X, but a follow-on bioweapons attack to the first bioweapons attack. And I am so very glad you see Tulsi as a fraud. OK, maybe fraud is too much, an opportunist. I would also argue that omeecrone is likely to have pushed your Variant X off by some unknown time, unless things get tighter and tighter for the oligarchs and they release the Kraken as bioweapon. Take care and I hope you and your family are happy and healthy.
Russia solved writing in 0g with a pencil while US spent billions for pen. Well US can drive great innovation BUT wars are all about attrition and that example reflects extremely badly on the 100s of billions spent and to be spent by US and western grifters. From your and others reporting Russian war machine is proving that in spades in Ukraine.
My point is that the MIC has nothing to do with fighting a war and to reinforce your point that Ukraine is just the grift train like all the other ‘honorable’ wars in countries of conquest.
They need 10-15 bill a month to keep the government afloat and buy out all the crazies to keep them aligned. to buy all the stuff they want its easily going to be 20-30 bill a month in weapons,
I figure an average of 150 bill to keep the government US friendly and another 300 billion to buy all the other stuff per year. so with inflation that’s going to be 1.2 trillion every 2-3 years.
Russia might start using depleted munitions in the west because if they cant get them all this go around, maybe the us dis proven unrelated health effects can trim the numbers to worry about over time.
If the US is willing to spend unlimited amounts of money propping up the Ukrainian govt and training and arming them, then where is the breaking point in this war? Will it be when the Ukrainians run out of fighting men? Or will it be a massive economic crisis in the US, or something else? Given the recent economic data coming out of Russia it doesn’t look like Russia will lose a war of attrition on any terms…
Since the motif here is to push the envelope, please allow me to contribute. Yes, a lot of doom & gloom is the news, but that is a necessary reflection of reality. Ignoring it won’t make it go away. The collapse is coming, and likely sooner rather than later. Most Americans are still sleepwalking into the future and praying that vote-harder and muddle-through will save them. They are not prepared for the coming hardship and many won’t survive the chaos that will come on rapidly (particularly in the big cities). Now here is the hard part . . . “the collapse is the cure.” It has always been thus. People are not going to change their attitude and motivation until they have no other choice but to do so. Most will take to the streets in protest (whining and raging). Some of these protests will morph into riots and wanton violence and arson. As throughout our evolutionary history, the strong and the smart will be best suited to survive this maelstrom of insanity. Be strong and smart.
Rumor has it Trump and other MAGA folks to be arrested and taken to Guantanamo where special courthouses have been built. Also military flights indicate troops being redeployed from their bases to cities all over the country. Also marshal law to be declared to quell the riots and cancel the elections. Also documents reveal BOOOSton received its grant from Falsi and Billy the Gate keeper to improve the function of OH MY CRON in March of 2020 1.75 YEARS before OH MY CRON variation magically appeared in September of 2021
Rumor has it, LOL.
Yep, this is all about squeezing every last cent into the coffers of the MIC-IMATT. One can almost see them calculating when (both?) Uk will no longer exist as viable states and timing the money flows so that it will nearly all bounce back into their pockets.
Have to agree, there’s some undersea financial earthquake that will trigger the tsunami, and soon.
As for Ukraine, if they want to prop up some guerrilla army I could see them holding Kiev and the western half of Ukraine and getting somebody to just mass-produce drones. The Russians are then forced to occupy the entire place to keep their own civilians from being blown up on a daily basis, and the possibility of mass atrocities in western Ukraine goes up a whole lot too.
If I was a depraved lunatic addicted to blood money that’s how I’d do it anyway.
March 2023 is also next 5,9month cycle uptick in solar activity. See Suspiciousobservers.org. Cheers !
Two updates in two days. Wow. The updates flow almost as fast we get through Prime Ministers in the UK. Of course, a new Prime Minister will not lead to any change that really matters. Some fiddling around the edges for the corporate media to hyperventilate over but no more.
Agree that the politicos and state operatives have no choice but to dig in for the never ending Russia proxy war too. If they lose this one after the Afghan debacle then their empire is finished. Europe going cold, Africa starving and middle America in a recession is a small price to pay as far as these guys are concerned. It might even be a geopolitical “win” in their warped world view. That despicable Madeleine Albright comment years ago about Iraqi deaths being a price worth paying sums these people up.
Your messages have been very consistent and accurate for keeping focused on the reality of all this.
“something, somewhere, is going to break, next month”
No shit sherlock 🙂 How about many things, in many places, starting with the Ukraine?
Tulsi is the bizzaro Lynne Cheney
There’s no patriots to send Saudi’s used all the stock. USA was chasing down other gulf states to send them there before they got on the naughty boys list. Productions “pending”. The only places you could get $20b worth of air defense systems is Moscow or Beijing. Good luck with that.
$50b is enough for the rest of the war though. The Russian take off the gloves head to Odessa/Transnistria in the south and head south to Lvov from Belarus. Mid November one the ground freezes maybe. Good open tank country in both cases. Trouble is they cut the supply off to Ukraine and likely by the end of February even CNN’s worked out Ukraine’s lost.
Of course there are Patriot launchers available. It’s just a question of, how deep do they want to scrape the barrel? Surely there are some Patriots in the hands of U.S. Army reserve or national guard units, and some spare stock at the air defense school at Fort Sill. At a minimum.
Sorry i wasn’t clear. I was talking about missiles being in short supply. Yes they could dig up some launchers but they wont be worth much without sufficient ammunition.
OK, maybe, I don’t know anything about that. Would be funny as hell, if true.
How are these patriots supposed to help? They were not effective in Saudi Arabia with Huthi (Iranian) missiles. If Russia is using the same from Iran I am sure they will get through. It seems to me that it is nothing more than Kabuki theatre. Thanks
Hello. The missiles were not effective, or the Saudis were not effective? I’ll bet on the latter.
Another great article.
For Americans reading this wondering what their elected leaders are doing or thinking as if it was nothing to do with them…
Please remember Americans are despised in Europe at every level – the only people that like them are the corrupt human shit they install via their World Economic Forum satanic deviant clowns:
The difference is now their human shit like Truss, Blowjob Boris and the war criminal Starmer are exposed and ejected. T he grubby EU leaders are just like Biden reduced to hiding from their people while their media spew gibber to the masses. Not long before the elites and their pig police hide in compounds waiting for the people to come for them.
The game is up Americans your nation is despised and hated understand that when you give out money as Europe will milk you – the Bear and Dragon will purge you from the globe.
Remove your corrupt leaders and never ever let them speak – look at the AOC humiliation to see what power the people can deliver.
Take responsibility for your mass murdering globalist pig human shit Biden slime and their deep state traitors and remove them like we did with the grubby disgusting ukronazi war criminal Truss.
Only to overwhelming vote to have Boris back again. Yep, that’s a plan.
Hi Jacob.
Since you have been Bang On The Money with this Ukraine thing, right from the word ‘go’; in your estimation, who, when and where will give in first – Uncle Sam or the Russians. Just asking for a friend, who lives in one of those unimportant Central European statelets.
Most ‘pubs are going along with the war spend because they think it’s popular. They’re probably right, since wherever I travel on Social Media I get attacked for voicing opposition to this insane war. But I’m not giving up – thanks for the heads up on the spend. Time to fire off more letters to my ‘pub politicians. On Tulsi, my guess is the timing of her departure from Dems was done as a favor to the right to get some quid pro quo. I’m not sure what that is – a cabinet post or Ambassadorship once Trump is back on the Throne? I don’t know, but she’s obviously paying dues in exchange for something. And I don’t trust that one at all.
Any inside the beltway noise on the Meeks disappearance?
I wish you’d come clean on your opinion of Tulsi.
Hahaha.
Who was able to endorse Brandon, was against US and wanted to destroy it. Even a teenager could see who is Brandon. That Tulsi voted twice for Trumps impeachment, ok, many did not like Trump and at that time Pence seemed to be ok and of good behaviour.Hiwever Brsndon? God help us and the world.Tulsi is just a p of … bad character
Maybe Tulsi reminds Jacob of an old girlfriend. : )
j/k
Tulsi didn’t vote to impeach trump
I used to worry about national debt, until I realized it’s just a figure. We can’t ever pay it back. What is an extra $50 or $500 Billion dollars that cannot be repaid? When the U.S. dollar finally hits the brick wall, and the currency becomes completely useless, what would the consequences of that even look like? Something exponentially worse than the Great Depression I bet. It doesn’t matter who is elected next month in the Mid-terms if the unelected bureaucrats who run the underground government are still employed. Excellent article. Cheers.
Correct. The biggest enabler to all this, is the fiat USD. And the only solution is it hitting the wall. So pile it on.
If the military and government of Ukraine collapse in a couple of months and Russia takes over (until they install a new government), we will end up saving a lot of money. It has been a slow grind until now. However, between the power grid situation and the Ukrainian casualties in Kherson and Russia amassing troops and equipment, events may soon accelerate.
And now you know why go slow, grind it out, don’t win till the end of winter is the Russian plan.
Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective, and without being condemning of one’s views and by trying to make it objectified and by considering each and everyone’s valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say.
No offense taken. lol.
Ukraine might just as well have a referendum and become the 51st state of the USA .. America would find it cheaper.
BTW …. even though I did as you suggested and added you to my contacts, your email landed up in my junk folder. Steve Jobs would be spinning like a top in his grave at the disgusting state of Apple
Correct me if I’m wrong, but there is one constraint to the PentaHexaDuoDecagon sending stiff to Ukranazistan, which is that even if they somehow manage to train the nazis to operate their most advanced stuff – or just send in their own regular forces in nazi uniform to operate it – when all that gets destroyed, as it certainly will, the military industrial complex will take one gigantic hit. So it’s my guess that of this $50 billion, most will simply disappear. And – naturally- if Russia didn’t occupy the nazi areas, only takes the Russian majority territory while Gazaing the rest, there’s not much a NATO trained guerrilla army can do anyway.
As for Gabbard, if she was for real they wouldn’t let her open her mouth in the public forum.
Imho the picture is a bit different, but I might err.
Certainly, Ukraine won’t pay back the money. But the money already has been payed – by the US tax payer. Printing the money does one thing: take out the money from the pockets of people and put it into the pockets of the government. So, the military industrial complex *has* been paid already. The ones who won’t get paid are the taxpayers of the US.
US will keep spending for Ukraine, it’s good pork after all and dollars can be created magically. WIth the rest of the world in chaos and threatened by the US the dollar is a safe bet so this provides a good buffer for more money printing.
Europe of course is the weak link, just like how Syria was the weak link in the Hezbollah-Syria-Iran axis that the Izzies love.
At one point Europe will be so desperate that they no longer want to be US vassal suffering under the Morgenthau plan V2. Governments in Europe will be overthrown, with Germany as the pivot. The Russian strategy will be to convince Europe to stop supporting Ukraine, because Europe will not benefit from having a 10 year war on their soil. The demographic change in Western Europe continues un-abated (only Ukraine’s borders are sacred!) and the MENA crowd will not appreciate their welfare payments drying up. They are normally moving in gangs, have weapons, used to violence to get what they want and have a short fuse. As the Police Chief emeritus of Paris just said: soon the army will guard the Elysee
At this point I even think there are places in Africa with better prospects than Europe.
I see a lot of problems for the US on the geopolitical level. Germany for example. The biggest corporations are already partially owned by big US Funds like Blackrock or Vanguard. So damaging Germany so much, that it at a certain point can’t afford US energy resources, is a stupid mistake. The US is not punching Russia, it punches Germany and with that punches itself.
Damaging all your biggest vassals so much, they can’t afford (like the UK) increase in defense spending, won’t help your goals either. The UK’s army is in a dismal state already, only 70k soldiers, they don’t have enough tanks to fight even one Russian tank division. Germany’s army is also pretty much a joke (I was in there for a couple of years, so I know what I am talking about). So I don’t know where all of this is going in detail, but in a bigger picture, it doesn’t look good for the US either. And the rise of the Dollar against Euro and Yen, also a huge problem for the US, those countries will reduce their imports from the US, not increase it.
…”The biggest corporations are already partially owned by big US Funds like Blackrock or Vanguard. So damaging Germany so much, that it at a certain point can’t afford US energy resources, is a stupid mistake. The US is not punching Russia, it punches Germany and with that punches itself…”
Do you really think those criminal crooks care ? whose money is it ? Certainly not theirs. It’s Joe sixpack’s pension money. Those crooks only use it as their leverage to get their agendas done.
After observing everything going on in the world, all politicians, mainstream media, and pretty much the world in general could be explained in this short video.
My apologies if some might not get it.
https://youtu.be/X1ym8K6b2o0
Jacob ‘Not Investment Advice’ (throwing that in), given the fiscal bleed, and I’m guessing WTI ready to launch once SPR’s are near zeroed post election, does JPowell reverse course? What your guess? Nothings broken above the surface but bond markets under the bonnet are finding no bid….Vol’s gotta explode but where’s’ the release?
Thanks for compiling this information Jacob and I agree with Chevy, what is the relief valve going to be that “releases” under all this pressure very soon? I’ll just quickly mention that I track comments through WordPress so that I don’t have to keep coming back to this site itself. I also follow Ret. Lt. Riccardo Bosi (Australian Special Forces) and he calls it a “House of Cards” about to come down. I tend to agree with all of the commenters who have been talking about “hunker down and ride this one out as best we can”. That becomes dependent on what “breaks” over the next few months certainly so I will keep following along with the blogs and comments best I can that seem relevant and realistic. Thanks to all of you.
An interesting comparison on how much $100B is, the US consumers bought pet food for $80B in 2021. Or $238 per person. US can keep up this game for decades.