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Lisichansk is almost over
It’s funny that the Western (or at least, Anglo-American) press is still talking about Severodonetsk, when the Russian side has moved on and is about to finish taking Lisichansk. Listening only to “what Ukraine says”, even when they are right (not often), they are always at least 36 hours behind.
In my last piece, about 24 hours ago, I said it may be the Lisichansk saga will be over before next week. This looks more and more likely. Perhaps it is even an understatement.
The Ukraine’s Lisichansk garrison has largely abandoned the city; some thousands (those not killed or taken prisoner on the way) got out via civilian vehicles or on foot, leaving behind the usual piles of antitank weapons and small mountains of other munitions.
It is estimated that only a small fraction of the Ukrainian garrison remains at present.
The expectation among Russian commentators and war correspondents is for the Ukraine to settle on a new line of defense along the north-to-south, Seversk-Soledar-Bakhmut axis, to be reinforced with essentially ALL remaining reserves within the Ukrainian regular army structure.
Furthermore, it is expected that this new line would be “successful” in terms of holding Russian and Donetsk/Lugansk forces back for a month or more.
I’m not sure about that. Typically, when everyone agrees on a given outcome (assuming they’re not all knowingly reading from the same, deliberate disinformation memo), everyone is wrong.
What’s interesting is the Russian presence around and south of Izium has not much expanded in at least a month. There may be a large offensive force here, waiting for the order to make a big push southwest on Barvenkovo and establish a base of operations there to harass the resupply of Ukrainian forces in Slaviansk-Kramatorsk.
This is speculation, but certainly Russia has been shaping the battlefield and will continue to do so. There is ZERO chance that the Ukraine will be given any breathing room to establish an organized, fortified defense line anywhere east of Slaviansk.
It is in Russia’s interest to bring as many Ukrainian human and material resources as far eastward into the bulge as possible, just as happened with Severodonetsk, so that they can present a dense, relatively easy target…..
…..and then, the survivors run the other way in disarray (leaving most of their gear behind) once it appears that doom is imminent.
Most likely, we will see a Russian campaign of constant pressure leading to continuous piecemeal encirclements, disorganized and ineffective resistance, and ignominious Ukrainian retreats all the way west to Slaviansk-Kramatorsk. And then, who knows?
What’s telling is that Ukrainian soldiers are no longer willing to be surrounded. On this blog and in one or more YouTube videos, I explained this as the outcome of Mariupol.
After Mariupol, everyone understands that once a Ukrainian force is surrounded, no one is coming to bail them out—not other Ukrainian forces, not some goodwill delegation led by Macron or the Pope, nobody.
This is why Severodonetsk was taken, and now Lisichansk is being taken, without really intense “urban core” fighting, by numerically INFERIOR Russian/Lugansk forces (essentially just scouting units)…..
…..and the two towns are seeing not remotely the level of damage wrought on Rubezhnoe just a few miles to the north, let alone on Mariupol, Volnovakha, Popasnaya, etc.
Per reader demand…
A number of new readers and YouTube followers have asked, why do I feel so sure that the KO-RO-NA is coming back in a big way, in a much more deadly form?
That is, more deadly for the VAKK-SYNN-AY-TTED (of all ages—VAKKSED is VAKKSED, I don’t believe children will be spared, this time.)
My simple, logical deductions are based on existing HOE-LEE SY-ENSSE—I suggest nothing exotic. See for yourself, in this piece from a few weeks ago.
I know that inflation, and energy shortages, and the end of the debt supercycle, and all the rest are really bad…..
…..but I believe it will take a “factor X” to really tip the scales and bring everything down hard into primeval confusion and a “re-set”….. and I think it will be what I’m describing here.
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